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Climate & Environment

World Meteorological Organization Warns of a Record- breaking Global Heat Surge by 2030.

WMO warns of a global heat surge by 2030, with rising chances of record temperatures, Arctic warming, and frequent breaches of the 1.5°C climate threshold.

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A globe engulfed in flames highlights the growing urgency of the global climate crisis. Image credit: Pexels/ArtHouse Studio

With forecasters now placing strong odds on a new global heat surge by 2030, a temperature record could be set within the next five years. The planet is on track for another stretch of extreme heat. A fresh outlook from the WMO projects that 2026 through 2030 will stay at or near the hottest levels ever measured, continuing a warming trend that has already pushed the climate into extends not seen in recorded history. Despite years of efforts to cut emissions, the planet keeps warming and the Paris Agreement’s 1.5°C goal is now getting tested more often than not.

The numbers show how far the planet has drifted from the goals set out in the agreement, which calls for keeping long-term warming under 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels. The WMO now puts the odds at 91% that at least one year in this window will tip past that mark, even if only briefly. More notably, there’s a three-in-four chance that the five-year average itself will land above 1.5°C.

Global heat surge by 2030
A rising thermometer under a blazing sun symbolically represents increasing global temperatures and the intensifying impact of climate change. Image credits: Pixabay/Stux

That doesn’t mean the Paris targets have been missed, those are tracked over decades, not single years. But scientists say breaches like this happening more often is itself a warning sign of how close the world is getting to its long-term limits.

Per the forecast, yearly global temperatures through 2030 should fall somewhere between 1.3°C and 1.9°C above the 1850–1900 baseline, and there’s an 86% likelihood that at least one of those years will top 2024, which currently holds the record for hottest year on record.

Why 2027 Is on Watch?

Much of this hinges on the tropical Pacific. Forecasters expect El Niño conditions to develop by late 2026, which would inject extra heat into the atmosphere on top of the warming already driven by greenhouse gases.

“There is an El Niño predicted for the end of 2026, which increases the chances of the following year, 2027, being the next record-breaking year,” said Dr. Leon Hermanson, the report’s lead author.

Arctic Heat Surge Signals Escalating Climate Crisis

No region escapes the warming, but the Arctic remains the outlier. The WMO expects winter temperatures there over the next five years to run roughly 2.8°C above the 1991–2020 average, more than triple the rate projected for the planet overall.

This tracks with what’s known as Arctic amplification, the well-documented pattern of the region warming faster than everywhere else. The fallout includes retreating sea ice, thawing permafrost, and ripple effects on weather systems well beyond the poles. The report specifically flags continued ice loss in the Barents Sea, Bering Sea, and Sea of Okhotsk.

Wetter Up North, Drier Down South

Rainfall is being reshaped too. The forecast points to wetter-than-normal winters across the northern high latitudes including the Sahel, northern Europe, Alaska, and Siberia along with increased rain in parts of the tropics. Meanwhile, several subtropical zones, the Amazon among them, are expected to turn drier. This split fits what scientists have predicted for a warming world, where a hotter atmosphere holds more moisture and disrupts long-standing rainfall patterns.

Caution behind the numbers

Beyond the headline numbers, the report is a reminder that climate change isn’t an abstract future problem, it’s already shaping decisions around farming, water access, infrastructure, public health, and disaster planning.

The assessment was compiled by the UK Met Office on the WMO’s behalf, pulling forecasts from 13 climate centers worldwide. Scientists say their confidence in these projections is high, since similar forecasting models have held up well against historical climate data. If the predictions are accurate, the back half of this decade may end up defined less by any single record and more by how this heat surge was effectively tackled.

EP Staff is the editorial team at EdPublica, an independent media organisation focused on science, education, environment and public policy. The team produces evidence-based news, features, explainers and analysis on issues that shape society and everyday life.

Climate & Environment

Why Delhi’s Geography Makes It Vulnerable to Severe Air Pollution

Delhi’s geographical location, surrounding agricultural and industrial regions, and winter weather conditions contribute to its recurring air pollution crisis.

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Industrial chimneys releasing smoke into the atmosphere, illustrating the regional industrial emissions contributing to Delhi's air pollution.
Industrial emissions from Delhi and surrounding regions add to the pollution burden across the Indo-Gangetic Plain. Representational image. Image credit: Юлия Кондратова/ Pexels

Delhi’s air pollution is a recurring problem shaped by more than the emissions produced within the city. Its location in the Indo-Gangetic Plain, proximity to agricultural and industrial regions, and seasonal weather conditions contribute to the accumulation of pollutants, particularly during winter.

The national capital lies in a relatively flat region surrounded by densely populated cities, agricultural land and industrial clusters. Emissions from vehicles, factories, construction activities and crop-residue burning add to the pollution load across this wider region. Atmospheric conditions often determine how quickly these pollutants disperse.

Location in the Indo-Gangetic Plain

Delhi is situated in the northwestern part of the Indo-Gangetic Plain, which extends across several northern and eastern Indian states. The region’s relatively flat terrain allows air masses to move across state boundaries, carrying dust, smoke and other pollutants over long distances.

Industrial emissions, vehicle exhaust, construction dust and agricultural burning across Delhi and neighbouring states contribute to this regional pollution burden. As a result, the city’s air quality is influenced by emissions generated beyond its administrative boundaries.

A delivery worker transporting goods on a cycle rickshaw along a hazy Delhi road, illustrating road transport and urban activity amid poor air quality.
Road transport and urban emissions contribute to Delhi’s air pollution, while stagnant winter conditions allow pollutants to accumulate. Representational image. Image credit: Soumalya Halder/ Pexels

Delhi’s Air Pollution: Winter Weather Traps Pollutants

Temperature inversion is a major reason for the deterioration of Delhi’s air quality during winter. Under normal conditions, warm air near the surface rises and helps disperse pollutants. During an inversion, a layer of warmer air sits above cooler air near the ground, restricting vertical movement.

The atmospheric boundary layer, the lowest part of the atmosphere where surface emissions mix with surrounding air, also becomes shallower during winter. This reduces the volume of air available to dilute pollutants. Combined with low wind speeds, these conditions allow particulate matter to accumulate close to the ground.

The geographical influence on Delhi’s air quality is also documented in studies examining regional wind patterns and pollution transport. A 2015 study published in the Journal of the Air & Waste Management Association, titled An Investigation of Potential Regional and Local Source Regions Affecting Fine Particulate Matter Concentrations in Delhi, India, used backward air-mass trajectories to trace the movement of pollutants reaching the city.

It identified Pakistan, Punjab, Haryana and Uttar Pradesh as significant potential source regions. The study also found that wind direction influenced particulate concentrations in Delhi, with air arriving from industrial and urban centres in the surrounding National Capital Region carrying additional emissions. These findings show how pollution can move across state boundaries and affect the capital’s air quality.

Crop-residue Burning Adds to Pollution

Punjab, Haryana and western Uttar Pradesh have extensive paddy-growing regions. After harvesting, some farmers burn crop residue to clear their fields for the next cultivation cycle. Smoke from these fires contains fine particulate matter that can travel towards Delhi, depending on wind direction and speed. The practice coincides with the onset of winter, when weaker winds and atmospheric stability already favour pollution accumulation.

Crop-residue burning is a seasonal contributor, however. Vehicle emissions, industrial activities, construction dust and waste burning continue to affect air quality throughout the year. Delhi’s proximity to Rajasthan also exposes it to dust transported from arid and semi-arid regions, including the Thar Desert. During summer, strong winds can carry desert dust towards the capital, increasing concentrations of particulate matter, particularly PM10. Construction sites, unpaved roads and exposed soil within the National Capital Region add to the dust burden.

Why the Monsoon Brings Relief

Monsoon rainfall helps remove airborne particles through a process called wet deposition, in which raindrops capture pollutants and bring them to the ground. Stronger winds and atmospheric mixing during this season also improve pollutant dispersion.

After the monsoon withdraws, rainfall decreases and atmospheric conditions gradually become more favourable for pollution accumulation. The combination of reduced rainfall, declining wind speeds and winter temperature inversions contributes to the seasonal deterioration in air quality.

Pollution Needs a Regional Response

Delhi’s geographical position makes air pollution a regional problem. Controlling emissions within the capital remains important, but pollution transported from surrounding agricultural, industrial and urban areas also needs attention.

Stronger winds can temporarily improve air quality by dispersing pollutants. Sustained improvement, however, requires reductions in emissions across the wider airshed, alongside measures to address local sources and seasonal pollution.

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Climate & Environment

Extreme weather affects India on 92% of days in 2026, raises concerns over climate preparedness

Extreme weather affected India on 92% of days between January and September 2026. A CSE–Down To Earth report documents thousands of deaths and extensive damage to crops, houses and livestock.

Jishnu P

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Palm trees bending in strong winds during heavy rain, with waterlogged ground in a coastal area.
Strong winds and heavy rainfall can damage infrastructure, disrupt livelihoods and increase flood risks in vulnerable coastal regions.Image credit: Pixabay

India experienced extreme weather events on 92 per cent of days between January and September 2026, resulting in thousands of deaths and extensive damage to agricultural land, houses and livestock, according to a new assessment by the Centre for Science and Environment (CSE) and Down To Earth released on Nov 4. The findings highlight the growing frequency of weather-related disasters and the mounting pressure on communities, livelihoods and public infrastructure.

The report, Climate India 2026: An Assessment of Extreme Weather Events, released on November 4, recorded extreme weather on 251 of the 273 days during the first nine months of the year. These events included heatwaves, cold waves, lightning, thunderstorms, heavy rainfall, floods and landslides.

The assessment estimated that extreme weather claimed 3,220 lives, affected 4.25 million hectares of cropped area, destroyed 128,334 houses and killed 47,244 animals during the period. The scale of the damage points to the increasing exposure of communities and economic activities to climate-related hazards.

The report’s five-year analysis also indicates that extreme weather has become a persistent feature of India’s climate risk. The proportion of days affected by such events increased from 86–88 per cent in 2022 and 2023 to 93 per cent in 2024 and 99 per cent in 2025. Across the five-year assessment period, extreme weather events claimed an estimated 16,200 lives and affected at least 20.6 million hectares of cropped land.

Regional differences and changing weather patterns

The effects were unevenly distributed across the country. Uttar Pradesh and Himachal Pradesh recorded extreme weather on nearly 64 per cent of the 273 days assessed in 2026, the highest frequency among states. Uttar Pradesh reported the highest death toll, with 811 fatalities, followed by Maharashtra with 286 and Bihar with 245.

Maharashtra recorded the largest area of affected crops at 2.83 million hectares. Uttar Pradesh followed with 0.69 million hectares and Bihar with 0.23 million hectares. At the regional level, northwest India recorded extreme weather on 235 days, followed by east and northeast India with 218 days.

The assessment also identified unusual temperature and rainfall patterns during the year. February 2026 was India’s driest February since 1901 and the fourth warmest in 125 years. July recorded the country’s third-highest mean temperature for the month, while the minimum temperature was the second highest on record.

The monsoon season presented another contrast. Despite an overall rainfall deficit, heavy rainfall, floods or landslides occurred somewhere in the country on all 122 days of the monsoon season, according to the assessment. This illustrates how a seasonal rainfall deficit can coexist with destructive episodes of intense rainfall in particular locations. The distribution and intensity of rainfall can therefore be as consequential as the seasonal total.

Agriculture and livelihoods under pressure

Agriculture remains particularly vulnerable to these changes. The CSE–Down To Earth assessment found that the area of cropped land affected by extreme weather increased from 1.84 million hectares in 2022 to 9.47 million hectares in 2025. In 2026, a further 4.25 million hectares were affected during the first nine months.

Crop damage can have consequences beyond a single harvest. For small and marginal farmers, repeated losses can reduce household income, increase borrowing and undermine their ability to invest in the next agricultural season. Flooding can destroy standing crops, damage irrigation systems and erode fertile soil, while prolonged dry spells and heat stress can reduce yields and increase irrigation requirements.

The impact also extends to livestock and rural infrastructure. The loss of animals affects household assets and agricultural productivity, while damaged houses and roads can disrupt access to markets, schools and healthcare. Communities already facing economic insecurity may find it difficult to recover before another extreme weather event occurs.

Government data also underline the scale of the challenge. A Ministry of Home Affairs response published by the Press Information Bureau in August 2026 provides state-reported figures on human deaths, cattle losses, damaged houses and affected cropped areas due to hydro-meteorological disasters during 2023–24, 2024–25 and 2025–26. Disaster management and relief are primarily the responsibility of state governments, which makes local preparedness and response capacity particularly important.

Rising temperatures and disaster risks

The India Meteorological Department’s assessment of 2025 provides further context for the country’s changing climate conditions. Its Statement on the Climate of India during 2025 recorded the annual mean land-surface air temperature at 0.28°C above the 1991–2020 average, making 2025 the eighth warmest year since records began in 1901. The report also documented deaths associated with lightning, thunderstorms, floods, heavy rainfall and landslides.

Rising temperatures can intensify heat-related health risks and contribute to conditions favourable for more intense rainfall. However, individual extreme weather events cannot automatically be attributed to climate change. Their occurrence and severity are influenced by several factors, including natural climate variability, local geography, land-use changes and infrastructure.

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Representative image of temeperature rise.Image credit:Pixabay

The death estimates in the IMD and CSE–Down To Earth assessments differ because the reports use different datasets and methods of tracking extreme weather. They should therefore be treated as separate assessments rather than combined into a single national total.

Strengthening preparedness

The findings raise questions about India’s preparedness for increasingly frequent weather-related hazards. Early-warning systems, resilient infrastructure, effective urban drainage, heat action plans and better protection for agricultural communities are important components of disaster-risk reduction.

Forecasts must also reach vulnerable communities in time and in accessible languages. In flood-prone areas, improved drainage, protection of wetlands and floodplains, and restrictions on construction in high-risk zones can reduce exposure. In agriculture, crop diversification, climate-resilient varieties, better water management and accessible crop insurance can help farmers manage weather-related losses.

The CSE assessment also points to gaps in the availability of consolidated information. Government agencies use different definitions and data-collection methods for extreme weather events, making it difficult to build a comprehensive picture of their frequency and impact. Consistent reporting and transparent disaster-loss databases would help policymakers identify vulnerable regions and evaluate the effectiveness of adaptation measures.

As extreme weather affects more regions and sectors, coordination between meteorological agencies, disaster-management authorities, local governments and agricultural departments will become increasingly important. The challenge is no longer limited to responding after disasters occur. It also involves reducing exposure, protecting livelihoods and strengthening the capacity of communities and infrastructure to withstand future climate risks.

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Energy

India’s renewable energy boom faces a growing challenge as power grids struggle to absorb clean electricity

India’s renewable energy expansion is facing a growing challenge as grid constraints and limited power storage lead to clean electricity curtailment. New research highlights the need for stronger transmission infrastructure, battery storage and greater flexibility in coal-fired power generation.

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Solar panels and wind turbines generating renewable electricity in a mountainous landscape.
A hybrid renewable energy installation combining solar photovoltaic panels and wind turbines. Image for representation.Image credit:Pexels

India’s rapid expansion of solar and wind energy is creating a new challenge for its electricity sector: ensuring that the power generated from renewable sources can be absorbed and supplied when needed. A growing volume of clean electricity is being curtailed because of grid constraints and the operational limitations of coal-fired power plants, raising questions about whether the country’s electricity infrastructure can keep pace with its energy transition.

An analysis published by energy think tank Ember on June 17, 2026, estimates that India curtailed approximately 2.1 terawatt-hours (TWh) of renewable electricity during the financial year 2025–26 because coal-fired power plants had to maintain their minimum technical operating levels. This represents around 1.3% of total renewable electricity generation and an estimated ₹629 crore worth of foregone electricity.

The report, titled Bottleneck to the Next Phase of Renewable Energy Growth in India, identifies the limited operational flexibility of coal-based power plants as a significant obstacle to integrating additional renewable electricity into the grid. It estimates that around 10 gigawatt-hours (GWh) of battery storage capacity is immediately needed to prevent this form of renewable energy curtailment.

The findings highlight a growing mismatch between India’s expanding renewable energy capacity and the flexibility of its existing electricity infrastructure.

Coal dependence and grid constraints complicate the energy transition

Solar power generation is concentrated during daylight hours, particularly around midday, while electricity demand often remains high after sunset. Coal-fired power plants, which continue to provide a substantial share of India’s electricity, cannot always reduce their output sufficiently during periods of high solar generation without affecting their stable operation.

Coal plants have minimum technical load requirements, below which they cannot operate safely and reliably. When these plants reach their operating limits, grid operators may have to reduce renewable electricity generation to maintain the balance between electricity supply and demand.

Ember’s analysis found that coal plants were operating at or below their minimum technical load in more than half of midday dispatch intervals in April 2026. During the same month, renewable energy curtailment accounted for 37% of down-regulation, compared with almost zero a year earlier.

More recent findings from the Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air (CREA) indicate that the problem extends beyond coal-related operational constraints.

Its Quarterly Energy Snapshot for India: Q2 2026–27, published on October 12, estimates that approximately 1,835 million units of renewable electricity were curtailed during July and August 2026 because of grid and operational constraints. Of this, 1,462 million units came from solar generation and 373 million units from wind.

The report also records India’s peak electricity demand reaching 270 GW on July 16, 2026, an 18% increase from the corresponding quarter of the previous financial year. Coal and lignite continued to account for approximately 66% of electricity generation during the quarter, supplying 351 billion units.

These figures illustrate the difficulty of balancing increasing renewable generation with a power system that continues to depend heavily on conventional sources.

Energy storage emerges as a critical solution

Energy storage systems could help address this mismatch by storing surplus solar and wind electricity when generation is high and releasing it when demand increases or renewable output declines.

Battery energy storage systems (BESS) can respond quickly to fluctuations in electricity supply and demand. Pumped-storage hydropower offers another option, using surplus electricity to pump water to an elevated reservoir and generating power when it is released through turbines.

A 2026 report by the Rocky Mountain Institute (RMI), titled Catalysing Energy Storage in India: From Procurement to Reliable Power, estimates that India will require at least 60 GW of grid energy storage capacity by 2030. This includes 42 GW, equivalent to 208 GWh, of battery energy storage systems.

According to CREA, approximately 9.1 GWh of battery storage capacity was operational in India as of its Q2 2026–27 assessment. Although tenders for nearly 290 GWh of storage capacity had been issued by August 2026, the gap between planned and operational infrastructure remains substantial.

The International Energy Agency’s (IEA) India Renewable Energy Market Report 2026, released on November 3, also identifies faster investment in electricity grids and energy storage as essential to sustaining renewable energy expansion.

The report notes that India’s renewable power capacity has surpassed 300 GW in 2026, almost quadrupling over the past decade. It projects that capacity could reach approximately 530 GW by 2030, with solar photovoltaic technology accounting for more than 80% of new additions.

The IEA also warns that faster transmission development, improved forecasting, energy storage and greater flexibility in electricity generation will be necessary to integrate increasing volumes of variable renewable power.

India’s renewable energy expansion has already delivered significant energy security benefits. According to the IEA, renewable electricity helped the country avoid more than $100 billion in cumulative coal and natural gas import expenditure between 2011 and 2025.

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A vast field of wind turbines.Image credit:Pexels

However, the growing incidence of renewable electricity curtailment highlights the need to strengthen the infrastructure supporting this transition. Expanding generation capacity alone will not ensure that clean electricity reaches consumers when it is needed.

As India moves towards its 2030 renewable energy targets, investments in storage, transmission networks and more flexible power generation will be critical to reducing electricity losses and making its transition away from fossil fuels more effective.

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