Pollution in India has embedded itself into everyday life. The extent to which it affects people often goes unnoticed until it rides along with morning traffic, seeps through open windows, and settles into daily routines. Cities like Delhi and Ghaziabad routinely appear in global pollution rankings. The problem is structural, persistent, and increasingly demand climate action.

A recent survey on public perceptions of environmental issues suggests that Indians view climate change as an immediate threat to their local communities and personal well-being.

Widespread Concern Over Pollution

The survey highlighted a high level of anxiety regarding pollution in India. Around 77% of Indians expressed significant concern about air pollution. This concern exists alongside fears of other climate-related hazards, including severe heat waves (77%) and droughts or water shortages (76%). The findings suggest that the public views pollution as part of a broader environmental crisis already affecting everyday life.

“People need credible information about what governments, businesses, communities, and households can do, how clean-energy transitions create jobs and improve air quality, and how local actions connect to larger climate goals,” Jagadish Thaker, one of the lead authors of the study, told EdPublica.

Public concern over air quality is also reflected in environmental data. India ranked sixth among 143 countries in PM2.5 pollution levels in the 2025 World Air Quality Report. At the city level, the situation appears even more severe, with New Delhi continuing to rank as the world’s most polluted capital city for the eighth consecutive year.

Identifying the Culprits: Fossil Fuels and Coal

“What is striking in our data is how consistently supportive Indians are of the energy transition. These findings suggest that public opinion may be less of a barrier to climate and energy policy than is often assumed. For communicators, one challenge is helping people understand how long-term energy transitions actually occur and what role citizens can play in them,” said Thaker.

Large majorities of respondents identified oil (76%) and coal (68%) as polluting sources of electricity. India’s energy sector still relies on coal for nearly 70% of its electricity generation. At the same time, there is growing public recognition that coal is a major contributor to both local air pollution and global warming.

Interestingly, around 82% of Indians support banning the construction of new coal-fired power plants and gradually shutting down existing ones in favour of solar and wind energy. This support is driven by the belief that such a transition would benefit the people of India (87%) and offer the best pathway toward a “healthy, safe, and prosperous future.”

Shift Toward Climate Action

Support for renewable energy transitions is particularly strong. Nearly 95% of respondents favoured a national programme prioritising renewable-energy job training for youth and women, while 93% supported renewable-energy job training in general.

At the same time, 78% of Indians believe the government should be doing more to address climate and pollution-related challenges. Respondents also pointed to the need for hyperlocal, area-specific training programmes and structural policy reforms.

Reflecting on the findings, Thaker said: “These findings suggest that climate communication should not focus only on risks. Indians appear highly interested in solutions, skills, and opportunities. Effective climate education can help people understand climate change, but it can also help them see pathways to participate in the transition through employment, innovation, and community action. Education is most powerful when it links climate action to everyday benefits and opportunities.”

El Niño is a natural climate phenomenon in which surface waters in the central and eastern Pacific Ocean become significantly warmer than average. While El Niño events occur every 2–7 years, a Super El Niño is far more intense, typically marked by unusually high sea surface temperature anomalies (often exceeding +2°C). Climate models indicate a two-in-three chance of a strong to very strong El Niño developing, placing this year in the rare category of “Super El Niño” events, which have occurred only four times since 1950. The most notable recent Super El Niño occurred during 2015–16 and had major global climate impacts. Nearly a decade later, scientists are closely monitoring conditions for signs of a similar event, though its recurrence is not yet certain.

What makes a “Super” El Niño different?

In a normal El Niño, weakened trade winds allow warm water to spread eastward across the Pacific. A Super El Niño amplifies this process, disrupting global atmospheric circulation more dramatically. Global warming is adding further complexity, intensifying heat, altering rainfall patterns, and increasing risks to water, food, and health systems.

There is a recurring pattern where the peak heat impact often follows strong El Niño year, as seen when 2024 became the hottest year after the 2023 El Niño. Projections for 2026 suggest that the most intense heat may extend into 2027, making the period break the existing record. As a result, the upcoming event may lead to more prolonged and sustained heat stress known to humanity.

What does it mean for India?

For India, a Super El Niño does not have a uniform impact. The risks posed by a potential El Niño go beyond weather disruptions, extending deep into India’s economic stability. As Archana Chaudhary, Associate Director at Climate Trends, explains, “The risk India faces is not simply a weak monsoon or a hot year in isolation. It is a compound shock hitting the Indian economy… If a strong El Niño brings erratic rainfall alongside prolonged heat, while geopolitical tensions keep energy prices elevated, India could face pressure from several directions at once: food inflation, weaker rural demand, lower labour productivity, higher electricity and irrigation costs, water stress for industry and rising fiscal burdens.”

While parts of Maharashtra and Uttarakhand have experienced lower rainfall, water shortages, and warmer conditions, regions in the Northeast and along the west coast have received relatively higher rainfall and increased storm activity. Heavy rainfall reported in parts of West Bengal highlights that El Niño does not affect all regions of India in the same way. There are indications that similar uneven patterns could re-emerge. Authorities have urged farmers to be prepared for the kharif season, citing the possibility of variable rainfall conditions.

The Signs of a Pattern Reappearing

Studies show that the 2015 monsoon was significantly below average (around 86% of the long-period average), with rainfall declining after June and showing high variability. This led to drought-like conditions in several regions, reduced soil moisture, and stress on kharif crops. At the same time, India experienced one of its deadliest heatwaves, with temperatures crossing 45°C and causing over 2,500 deaths, particularly in Andhra Pradesh and Telangana.

The emerging 2026 Super El Niño, comparable to the 2015–16 event, is already showing signs of producing similar but more complex impacts on India’s climate. According to the India Meteorological Department, the 2026 southwest monsoon is projected at around 90% of the Long Period Average, with a 60% probability of deficient rainfall, figures close to the deficit observed during 2015. However, unlike 2015, when the impact was seen primarily as a widespread rainfall deficit and deadly heatwaves, current projections highlight greater intra-seasonal variability, with longer dry spells,break-monsoon conditions, and uneven rainfall distribution. Experts also warn that delayed monsoon progression could trigger humid heatwaves across northwest India. while the event may push 2026–27 toward record global and national temperatures.

Strain on India’s Climate Systems

According to scientists at the India Meteorological Department (IMD), El Niño is “one of the most important Ocean–atmosphere phenomena influencing the Indian monsoon,” but it does not act alone. There are also other factors at play, such as the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) and regional circulation patterns. They can either amplify or offset its effects.

Super El Niño increases the probability of climatic stress. Overlapping challenges from fuel price volatility and supply disruptions to climate extremes are growing more difficult to address in tandem. The combined pressure of heat, low rainfall and global economic shocks is pushing India’s already stretched systems toward greater instability. With rising baseline temperatures, even a typical El Niño can now produce more extreme outcomes, making preparedness, water management, and climate-resilient agriculture increasingly critical.

With forecasters now placing strong odds on a new global heat surge by 2030, a temperature record could be set within the next five years. The planet is on track for another stretch of extreme heat. A fresh outlook from the WMO projects that 2026 through 2030 will stay at or near the hottest levels ever measured, continuing a warming trend that has already pushed the climate into extends not seen in recorded history. Despite years of efforts to cut emissions, the planet keeps warming and the Paris Agreement’s 1.5°C goal is now getting tested more often than not.

The numbers show how far the planet has drifted from the goals set out in the agreement, which calls for keeping long-term warming under 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels. The WMO now puts the odds at 91% that at least one year in this window will tip past that mark, even if only briefly. More notably, there’s a three-in-four chance that the five-year average itself will land above 1.5°C.

That doesn’t mean the Paris targets have been missed, those are tracked over decades, not single years. But scientists say breaches like this happening more often is itself a warning sign of how close the world is getting to its long-term limits.

Per the forecast, yearly global temperatures through 2030 should fall somewhere between 1.3°C and 1.9°C above the 1850–1900 baseline, and there’s an 86% likelihood that at least one of those years will top 2024, which currently holds the record for hottest year on record.

Why 2027 Is on Watch?

Much of this hinges on the tropical Pacific. Forecasters expect El Niño conditions to develop by late 2026, which would inject extra heat into the atmosphere on top of the warming already driven by greenhouse gases.

“There is an El Niño predicted for the end of 2026, which increases the chances of the following year, 2027, being the next record-breaking year,” said Dr. Leon Hermanson, the report’s lead author.

Arctic Heat Surge Signals Escalating Climate Crisis

No region escapes the warming, but the Arctic remains the outlier. The WMO expects winter temperatures there over the next five years to run roughly 2.8°C above the 1991–2020 average, more than triple the rate projected for the planet overall.

This tracks with what’s known as Arctic amplification, the well-documented pattern of the region warming faster than everywhere else. The fallout includes retreating sea ice, thawing permafrost, and ripple effects on weather systems well beyond the poles. The report specifically flags continued ice loss in the Barents Sea, Bering Sea, and Sea of Okhotsk.

Wetter Up North, Drier Down South

Rainfall is being reshaped too. The forecast points to wetter-than-normal winters across the northern high latitudes including the Sahel, northern Europe, Alaska, and Siberia along with increased rain in parts of the tropics. Meanwhile, several subtropical zones, the Amazon among them, are expected to turn drier. This split fits what scientists have predicted for a warming world, where a hotter atmosphere holds more moisture and disrupts long-standing rainfall patterns.

Caution behind the numbers

Beyond the headline numbers, the report is a reminder that climate change isn’t an abstract future problem, it’s already shaping decisions around farming, water access, infrastructure, public health, and disaster planning.

The assessment was compiled by the UK Met Office on the WMO’s behalf, pulling forecasts from 13 climate centers worldwide. Scientists say their confidence in these projections is high, since similar forecasting models have held up well against historical climate data. If the predictions are accurate, the back half of this decade may end up defined less by any single record and more by how this heat surge was effectively tackled.