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The Climate World Cup? How Climate Change Could Affect Player Performance at the 2026 World Cup

Climate change and the 2026 FIFA World Cup could affect 97 matches, increasing heat risks for players, altering performance and raising safety concerns.

Dipin Damodharan

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Climate change and the 2026 FIFA World Cup could expose players and fans to higher temperatures during matches across North America.
Climate change and the 2026 FIFA World Cup could expose players and fans to higher temperatures during matches across North America. Image credit: Jason Charters /Unsplash

Climate change and the 2026 FIFA World Cup are on a collision course, with new research suggesting that rising temperatures could affect player performance, match intensity and fan safety in nearly every game of football’s biggest tournament.

When football fans tune in to the 2026 FIFA World Cup on June 11, they will be watching more than a battle between the world’s best teams. They may also be witnessing a new reality for global sport: a tournament increasingly shaped by climate change.

A new analysis by Climate Central suggests that rising global temperatures are making it more likely that players will compete in conditions known to affect performance during much of the tournament. The findings raise questions not only about athlete safety but also about how the game itself may evolve in a warming world.

The 2026 FIFA World Cup, scheduled from June 11 to July 19, 2026, will be the largest in the tournament’s history, featuring 48 teams and 104 matches across venues in the United States, Canada and Mexico. But according to Climate Central’s analysis, 97 of those 104 matches now face a higher likelihood of experiencing temperatures above 28°C, a threshold associated with reduced football performance.

Researchers found that nearly half the matches have at least a 50 per cent chance of being played in conditions that can impair performance. In several cases, climate change has increased those odds substantially. One of the most affected fixtures is the June 26 match between Uruguay and Spain in Guadalajara, where the probability of performance-affecting heat has increased by 37 percentage points because of climate change.

Climate Change and the 2026 FIFA World Cup Could Alter the Game

For decades, discussions about climate change and sport focused primarily on scheduling disruptions, extreme weather events or damaged infrastructure. The new analysis points to something more fundamental: the possibility that rising temperatures may influence what happens on the pitch itself.

Research cited by Climate Central shows that temperatures above 28°C can reduce sprint frequency, decrease the total distance players cover and slow recovery times. In a sport where margins are often measured in seconds and centimetres, even small declines in physical performance can influence tactics, intensity and match outcomes.

Professor Mike Tipton of the University of Portsmouth’s Extreme Environments Laboratory said the effects of heat extend beyond discomfort.

“Playing in temperatures above 28°C changes the game – affecting tactics, tempo and overall quality. We see reduced intensity, less sprinting and potentially fewer chances being created. As temperatures climb further, the risks also increase. Prolonged exposure and dehydration can lead to heat exhaustion or even heat stroke, particularly in high-stakes matches where players are more likely to push beyond their natural limits.”

Climate change and the 2026 FIFA World Cup could affect 97 matches, increasing heat risks for players, altering performance and raising safety concerns.
As the 2026 FIFA World Cup gets underway on June 11, concerns are growing that rising temperatures could influence how the tournament is played. Image credit: Franco Monsalvo

The implications are not limited to players. Slower matches, altered tactics and more frequent cooling breaks could affect the experience for millions of spectators in stadiums and billions watching worldwide.

Climate Change and the 2026 FIFA World Cup Raise New Safety Questions

Concerns about heat are becoming increasingly common across international sport.

Athletes competing in marathons, tennis tournaments and Olympic events have already faced extreme temperatures in recent years. Football, despite its global popularity, is not immune.

Norwegian international Morten Thorsby, who is expected to play at the 2026 World Cup, argues that the conversation can no longer focus solely on performance.

“This analysis makes clear that rising temperatures are not only a serious health risk for players and fans, but they are also starting to affect the quality of the game itself. When heat impacts sprinting, recovery, and overall intensity, it changes the way football is played – and not for the better,” he said.

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Source: Climate Central

“That’s exactly why I signed the players’ letter to FIFA last week. We need to take these risks seriously and ensure that the game we love is protected, both for those on the pitch and everyone watching around the world.”

The analysis arrives as sports governing bodies face increasing pressure to adapt competitions to a changing climate. Possible responses include scheduling more matches during cooler periods of the day, increasing player protection measures and reconsidering host venue requirements.

The Future of Football in a Warming World

Climate scientists argue that what is happening to football mirrors broader changes taking place across society.

Shel Winkley, a meteorologist at Climate Central, said climate change is already reshaping many of the traditions people associate with sport.

“The World Cups of the past won’t happen again — not because the players have changed, but because the planet has. Heatwaves, unpredictable weather, and shifting seasons are rewriting the rules of the games we love,” Winkley said.

“Athletes are forced to play more cautiously, strategize differently, and abandon the risks that once made sport thrilling. Unless we stop burning fossil fuels, the future of competition won’t be about who plays best — it’ll be about who can tolerate the heat.”

For football fans, the warning is striking. Climate change is often discussed through statistics, emissions targets and policy debates. The 2026 World Cup offers a more visible illustration of its impact.

If the analysis proves accurate, the world’s biggest sporting event may become a reminder that climate change is no longer a distant environmental issue. It is increasingly becoming a factor that shapes how people work, travel, compete and even play the games they love.

Dipin Damodharan is the Co-founder and Editor-in-Chief of EdPublica. A journalist and editor with over 15 years of experience leading and co-founding both print and digital media outlets, he has written extensively on education, politics, and culture. His work has appeared in global publications such as The Huffington Post, The Himalayan Times, DailyO, Education Insider, and others.

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Climate-Resilient Agriculture Must Move From Policy to Practice

Climate-resilient agriculture is emerging as a key policy priority in India as experts call for water conservation, crop diversification, and technology-driven farming to tackle growing climate risks.

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Climate-resilient agriculture
Image credit: Rahul Vadhs/Pexels

Climate-resilient agriculture is gaining policy attention in India as experts advocate water conservation, crop diversification, and digital technologies to help farmers adapt to increasing climate risks and strengthen long-term food security.

As climate change continues to threaten agricultural productivity through erratic rainfall, rising temperatures and increasing water stress, experts have called for stronger evidence-based policies and investments in climate-resilient farming to safeguard India’s food security and rural livelihoods.

The discussion took place at a workshop organised by the Nation First Policy Research and Change Foundation (NFPRC) for Members of Parliament and State Legislators in New Delhi, where policymakers, agricultural scientists and researchers examined strategies to strengthen climate resilience across India’s farming sector.

“Our focus must be on evidence-based policymaking, climate-resilient governance, crop diversification, water conservation, irrigation and insurance coverage to strengthen India’s agricultural resilience,” Tarun Chugh, Member of Rajya Sabha and Chairperson of the NFPRC Foundation, said while inaugurating the workshop.

Climate-Resilient Agriculture Is Becoming a Policy Priority in India
From the policy workshop in New Delhi attended by lawmakers and agricultural experts. Image credit: By Special Arrangement

During a technical session, Praveen Kumar Singh, Agriculture Commissioner at the Ministry of Agriculture and Farmers Welfare, and Rajbir Singh, Deputy Director General at the Indian Council of Agricultural Research (ICAR), emphasised that adapting Indian agriculture will require region-specific crop diversification, wider adoption of millets, pulses, oilseeds and horticultural crops, along with investments in watershed development, rainwater harvesting, groundwater recharge and micro-irrigation.

Experts also highlighted the growing role of emerging technologies, including artificial intelligence, drones, Internet of Things (IoT) devices and digital supply chains, in improving weather forecasting, precision farming, irrigation management and crop insurance delivery. Speaking on agricultural innovation, Ramesh Chand, Distinguished Professor at the Indian Council for Research on International Economic Relations (ICRIER) and former Member of NITI Aayog, said technology, finance and governance must work together to build a more resilient agricultural system.

The workshop concluded with a call for closer collaboration between policymakers, scientific institutions and farming communities, underscoring that climate resilience will depend not only on technological innovation but also on translating research-backed policies into effective action at the farm level.

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Why Is India Flooding If El Niño Predicted a Weak Monsoon?

El Niño was expected to suppress India’s 2026 monsoon, but July brought intense and uneven rainfall. While some regions remained deficient, extreme rain triggered floods and landslides across Assam, Gujarat, Odisha and Jammu & Kashmir. The pattern shows why seasonal rainfall averages alone cannot explain India’s increasingly erratic monsoon.

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El Niño and extreme climate
Heavy monsoon rainfall causes severe waterlogging, reflecting the increasingly uneven and intense rainfall seen across India in 2026. Representational iamge. Image credit: Dibakar Roy/Pexels

India entered the monsoon season with a warning: rainfall was expected to be below normal as El Niño conditions developed over the Pacific. Many feared water shortages and crop damages. The India Meteorological Department (IMD) forecast the June–September monsoon at 92% of the Long Period Average. The early monsoon appeared to follow that forecast. By June 30, India’s rainfall deficit had reached 40%. IMD also expected July rainfall to remain below normal.

But July turned the tables. Between July 1 and 26, India received 238.2 mm of rain against the normal 233.9 mm. By July 29, the national rainfall deficit had narrowed to 16%. Yet this was not a uniformly wet recovery. According to a report by Climate Trends, 17 states remained rainfall-deficient, while 15 recorded normal rainfall and four recorded excess or large-excess rainfall.

At the same time, extreme rainfall was triggering floods and landslides across several parts of the country, underscoring that the 2026 monsoon cannot be boiled down to a single rainfall number. 

Two Sides of the Same Forecast

Assam offers the clearest example. East and Northeast India remained 30% below normal as of July 29. Yet Assam was facing severe flooding. By July 30, floods had affected more than 300,000 people and killed 78, while nearly 13,000 households remained without electricity.

The contradiction is important: a rainfall deficit at the seasonal or regional scale does not mean an absence of dangerous rainfall. Short, intense spells can produce flooding even when cumulative rainfall remains below normal.

Odisha tells a similar story. On July 16, IMD recorded extremely heavy rainfall of at least 21 cm in parts of the state, linked to a well-marked low-pressure area over the northwest Bay of Bengal and adjoining Odisha-West Bengal coast. IMD also warned of flash-flood risk in several districts. The system brought very heavy rain to Assam, Arunachal Pradesh and Bihar, with heavy rain across parts of Chhattisgarh, Madhya Pradesh, Nagaland and Tripura.

Then came Gujarat. On July 23, Valsad experienced an exceptional rainfall event, with Umergam recording 1,064 mm in 24 hours, according to the report analysed for this story. It was described as the third-highest 24-hour rainfall recorded in India since 1901. These events show that when rainfall arrives in increasingly concentrated bursts, it can trigger severe flooding and landslides even if seasonal totals remain normal or below average.

The South Tells Another Story

The picture changes across southern India. While July brought intense rainfall to parts of western, eastern and northeastern India, the South Peninsula—covering Kerala, Tamil Nadu, coastal and interior Karnataka, Andhra Pradesh and Telangana—remained 26% deficient as of July 29. Within this region, the shortfall was not uniform, with some coastal pockets receiving near-normal showers while interior districts continued to face prolonged dry spells. Northwest India was 10% deficient and Central India 1% deficient.

This geographical divide matters because it highlights how fragmented the monsoon has become at the sub-divisional level. India is not simply becoming wetter or drier overall. Instead, rainfall is increasingly uneven in both space and intensity, with some regions experiencing short bursts of destructive downpours while others remain locked in persistent deficits despite being in the same monsoon phase.

Why El Niño Did Not Tell the Whole Story

El Niño remains an important influence on the Indian monsoon, but scientists say it cannot be considered in isolation.

One factor is warming in the western Pacific. Former IMD Director General K J Ramesh said this has helped offset some of the rainfall-suppressing influence expected from El Niño. Cyclonic circulations moving through Myanmar have also sent remnants into the North Bay of Bengal, where they re-intensified and strengthened monsoon activity.

Western Disturbances have added another layer. Their increased interaction with the monsoon has contributed additional moisture from the Arabian Sea into Maharashtra and Gujarat and affected rainfall over the Himalayas and Northeast.

Jammu and Kashmir demonstrates how intense this interaction can become. During a July 19–24 rainfall spell, Reasi recorded 473.2 mm, followed by 417.5 mm in Udhampur and 349.9 mm in Rajouri. The rainfall triggered flash floods and landslides, with 28 deaths reported by July 21.

The issue, therefore, is not only how much rain falls. It is how quickly it falls and where it falls.

Climate change Adding Layers

Warmer oceans and land surfaces can increase the moisture available to favourable weather systems. Dr Akhil Srivastava of IMD said that when multiple monsoon systems develop under warmer conditions, they can gather more moisture and increase the likelihood of extreme rainfall.

El Niño 2026 monsoon rainfall anomaly map showing actual and normal rainfall across India.
IMD map showing India’s seasonal rainfall and rainfall anomalies from June 1 to July 28, 2026.

This does not mean every flood can be directly attributed to climate change. Rather, climate change is altering the background conditions in which monsoon systems operate.

It is also changing the behaviour of Western Disturbances. Scientists cited in the report say changes in the subtropical westerly jet are allowing these systems to travel and oscillate differently during the monsoon season. Their interaction with the monsoon trough can contribute to heavier precipitation over northern India.

That matters for Himalayan states, where intense rainfall can quickly translate into flash floods and landslides.

The Unpredictable Monsoon Situation

This year’s monsoon is therefore more complicated than an El Niño-versus-rainfall equation. June delivered a 40% deficit. July then cut that deficit to 16%, but through highly uneven rainfall. Assam remained deficient while battling floods. Gujarat experienced an exceptional rainfall event. Odisha faced extreme rainfall linked to a Bay of Bengal low-pressure system. Jammu and Kashmir saw intense rain alongside flash floods and landslides. Meanwhile, the South Peninsula remained 26% deficient.

Phenomena like El Niño can no longer be applied uniformly to explain monsoon behaviour in a changing climate. The question is shifting from how much rain India receives over four months to where it falls, when it falls and how intensely it arrives.

For a country where agriculture, water storage, drainage, roads and disaster preparedness depend heavily on seasonal rainfall, that distinction matters. El Niño remains an important signal. But in a warming climate, it is only one part of a much larger system.

The biggest challenge India has to tackle is managing increasingly uneven and high-intensity rainfall rather than average seasonal totals. This calls for stronger real-time forecasting, district-level early warning systems, and climate-resilient infrastructure that can handle both flash floods and prolonged dry spells. Planning for monsoon risk must now shift from seasonal averages to managing extremes in space and time.

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After Kerala’s Deadliest Landslide, the Hardest Thing to Rebuild Was Childhood

In Wayanad, part of the ecologically fragile Western Ghats, a school at Vellarmala had no training in trauma recovery when the landslide hit — so its teachers built their own response, one now echoed by research and by disaster-recovery efforts in Nepal and the Philippines. What worked, what it took, and where it still falls short for the next school this happens to.

Vaishnavi V S

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GVHSS Vellarmala school building in Wayanad, rebuilt after the Chooralmala landslide.
GVHSS Vellarmala, rebuilt with support from the Builders Association of India, as the school community continues its recovery after the Chooralmala landslide. Image credit: Vaishnavi VS

On the morning of July 30, 2024, one of Kerala’s deadliest landslides tore through Chooralmala and Mundakkai in Wayanad. As hillsides collapsed under relentless monsoon rain, entire neighbourhoods were swept away, killing 298 people. Among the dead were 33 students from the Vellarmala Government Vocational Higher Secondary School (VHSS). The school campus itself disappeared beneath mud and boulders, taking with it classrooms, a playground, a library and years of childhood memory.

When classes resumed months later, the children had a school again — but not the one they remembered. Friends were missing. Familiar surroundings were gone. The laughter that once filled the corridors was buried alongside students who never returned.

Lost childhood of students of Vellarmala
A memorial display at GVHSS Vellarmala honours students who lost their lives in the Chooralmala landslide. Image credit: Vaishnavi VS

That was when the teachers realised they were not simply reopening a school. They were helping children rebuild a childhood that a disaster had shattered.

When Learning Had to Wait

The Meppadi school today has 331 students and 28 teachers. But in the weeks after the landslide, when the school community was still grappling with loss and displacement, the staff knew that returning to textbooks could not be the first priority.

Ninety-seven students from Classes 1 to 10 had been directly affected by the landslide — either injured, displaced, or bereaved — split almost evenly between girls and boys. Others had lost relatives or friends, including classmates who sat beside them every day. For the first month, the school itself was pressed into service as a relief camp. With the original campus destroyed, students were relocated to the kitchen and dining hall of another school compound.

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The numbers behind Vellarmala’s recovery, drawn from EdPublica’s ground reporting, show the scale of loss and the difficult journey of rebuilding a school and a childhood after the Chooralmala landslide.

For two months, academics were set aside entirely. Instead, the teachers focused on one thing: keeping the children together, and giving them a routine. Students arrived in the morning, ate breakfast and lunch, took part in activities, had evening snacks, and stayed through the day.

“We did not give the students a chance to overthink anything,” Unnikrishnan, a teacher who has worked at the school for 20 years, told EdPublica.

But even with the children physically back together, something was missing. “Both children and teachers have a sense of sadness regarding the disaster,” the headmistress Jesna Jose told EdPublica. “Even though they don’t show it often, we can feel it.” The children were together again. The school did not yet sound like itself.

Then Came the Smile

The change began with something that had nothing to do with textbooks.

Two teachers from a government school in Pathanamthitta, a district in south-central Kerala—Manoj Sini and K.S. Binu—arrived at Vellarmala dressed as clowns. They walked into a Class 1 classroom, played music, and began performing comic routines. The children laughed. Then the teachers laughed too.

“All of a sudden, the children started laughing. Seeing the children laugh, the teachers also started laughing,” Unnikrishnan recalls. It was a small moment. But after months of grief, it meant something far larger.

“That’s when we understood that art was the medicine,” he says.

The insight that followed was a quiet but important one: recovery did not have to begin with talking about the disaster. Sometimes, it could begin with giving children a reason to laugh.

“Once there was a smile, we could carry things forward. That was the turning point in rebuilding the school.”

Finding What Each Child Could Do

From there, the teachers began looking beyond what the children had lost and toward what they still had to rebuild the childhood.

They individually studied the 97 directly affected students to identify their interests and abilities. Some were drawn to craft, others to computers, art, sport, or science. Children were grouped by interest, and outside experts were brought in to train them — many arriving without any fee, through the teachers’ own personal networks and friendships.

The school became, for a period, a working studio of drama, oppana (a traditional Muslim wedding dance performed by women), nadan pattu (Kerala folk songs) and vanjippattu (traditional boat songs). A science expert ran demonstrations. A craft teacher introduced bookbinding and art. Students were entered into science exhibitions and arts festivals.

Rebuilding hope through art
A display of trophies, awards and student projects at GVHSS Vellarmala, reflecting the achievements and resilience of the school community after the Chooralmala landslide. Image credit: Vaishnavi VS

This was not simply keeping children occupied. It was giving them a structured way to discover themselves again — and it is the detail that separates what happened at Vellarmala from a generic “art therapy helped” narrative: the intervention was individually mapped, expert-led, and sustained, not a single feel-good workshop.

The results reached a public stage. Students from the school delivered the first dance programme at the State School Art Festival, and later performed Vellapokkathil (In the Flood) at the Kerala State School Youth Festival 2024 — all seven performers survivors of the Chooralmala landslide themselves.

Based on a story by the Malayalam writer Thakazhi Sivasankara Pillai, the play depicts communities and animals caught in a catastrophic flood. For the students performing it, the story was inseparable from what they had lived through months earlier — making the performance both intensely personal and difficult to watch as fiction.

Where Research Meets the Ground

What the Vellarmala teachers arrived at through instinct and trial finds independent confirmation in a study published in 2025 in the journal Development in Practice. Researcher V. Akhila and colleagues, drawing on direct involvement in the relief camps set up after the landslide, documented the same emotional terrain the teachers describe: survivors carrying acute guilt at having lived when neighbours and family did not, a disruption to “sense of security, identity, and hope,” and heightened anxiety, sleep disturbance and fear that did not resolve quickly.

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Relief workers survey the aftermath of the Chooralmala landslide in Wayanad, where homes, roads and livelihoods were swept away by the disaster. Image credit: Ahamedhjewadh / Wikimedia Commons (CC0 1.0)

The study examines the toll on first responders, many of whom were themselves survivors or had lost people they knew, and who were frequently deployed into relief work without any prior debriefing — carrying the emotional weight of that period into their daily lives long afterward. It is a reminder that “recovery” in a disaster zone is not a category that applies only to the visibly affected; it extends to everyone who worked to hold the response together, including, arguably, teachers like Unnikrishnan.

The researchers also flag something the Vellarmala experience illustrates directly: that mental health impacts fall unevenly across a population — hitting children, older residents, people with disabilities, and those relocated from outside the immediate community hardest — and that longer-term psychological support after landslides remains patchy and poorly coordinated almost everywhere it has been studied.

When Grief Returned

But there is no single fix for what these students had endured. The return of laughter did not mean the children had forgotten what happened.

As the SSLC (Secondary School Leaving Certificate, Kerala’s Grade 10 board examination) approached, seven students — three girls and four boys — told their teachers they did not want to sit the exam. Many of the friends who should have been sitting beside them had died in the landslide, and the exam hall itself was a reminder of who was missing.

The teachers went to each of the seven students’ homes and persuaded them, one by one, to take the examination. They did. The school went on to record a 100 percent pass rate. At the farewell ceremony that followed, many students cried uncontrollably.

The episode is the clearest evidence that recovery here was never a straight line. There could be laughter one day and grief returning without warning the next. What the teachers had learned by then was not to expect children to simply “move on.” They stayed present through the difficult moments, and kept building spaces where students could learn, participate and be heard.

“Teachers gave them 24-hour support,” Unnikrishnan says. “It was survival. It was also a challenge for the teachers.”

Children and Disasters: A Global Problem

What happened at Chooralmala is a single, closely observed instance of a far larger pattern. UNICEF’s most recent global analysis found that at least 242 million students across 85 countries and territories had their schooling disrupted by extreme climate events in a single year — 2024 — through heatwaves, tropical cyclones, storms, floods and droughts. At least one in seven students worldwide experienced some form of climate-linked disruption to their education that year.

South Asia was the worst-affected region, with 128 million students facing climate-related school disruption in 2024 alone; heatwaves by themselves affected an estimated 171 million students globally. The disruption is rarely confined to missed classes. Extreme heat and other hazards damage school infrastructure, make the route to school unsafe, and measurably affect children’s concentration, memory and physical and mental health — the visible tip of a much larger iceberg of harm.

The scale behind these numbers is worth sitting with. A 2024 narrative review co-authored by researchers at the World Health Organization, synthesising over a decade of peer-reviewed evidence on climate change and child health, notes that 2022 alone saw 387 climate-related disasters worldwide — storms, floods, wildfires and droughts — that killed more than 30,000 people.

The review’s consistent finding across the literature it examined is that these events measurably affect children’s mental and physical health, nutrition, safety, learning, and the caregiving relationships that hold a childhood together — precisely the five domains Vellarmala’s teachers found themselves rebuilding one at a time.

Speaking to EdPublica, Dr Kavitha G. Bhaskaran, a guest faculty member in the Department of Psychology and Disaster Management at Sree Sankaracharya University of Sanskrit, said children exposed to recurrent landslides can experience withdrawal, fear, nightmares and a loss of interest in activities they once enjoyed, along with a lasting fear of loud sounds, rain or even the night itself.

Dr Upasona Ghosh, Technical Expert–Climate Change and Health at the Centre for Environmental Health and a member of the WHO South-East Asia Regional Expert Group on Environmental Determinants of Health and Climate Change, told EdPublica she has observed the same patterns working with children in the Indian Sundarbans, where communities face recurrent flooding. In that setting, children were simply given colours and notebooks and asked to draw their fear — no explanation required. They could draw the sea, the floodwater, or the destruction they had witnessed, without needing the vocabulary to describe it. “The entire page might be black,” Ghosh says. “That could reflect the state of their mind.”

Ghosh also points out that the damage does not stop with the child. When a disaster disrupts a parent’s livelihood, access to healthcare and the ability to seek care for a child both suffer. Children can simultaneously lose access to school-based nutrition, health and hygiene programmes when education itself is disrupted — and they lose something harder to name. “Their school, friends, teachers and other people in their village form an important part of their social world,” she says. When that world is disrupted, recovery requires far more than reopening a classroom door.

Two Other Disasters, Two Other Answers

Wayanad is not the first place to confront this problem, and the responses elsewhere are instructive — both for what worked and for what the Vellarmala teachers had to invent on their own because it did not yet exist as institutional practice.

After Typhoon Haiyan (known locally as Yolanda) devastated the central Philippines in November 2013 — one of the strongest tropical storms ever recorded, affecting some 16 million people — the country’s Department of Education partnered with UNESCO and the Psychological Association of the Philippines to produce a formal teachers’ manual on psychosocial intervention for disaster-affected students.

The underlying premise mirrors exactly what Unnikrishnan and his colleagues discovered through trial and error: that teachers, positioned closest to children day after day, are often better placed than outside specialists to help a child begin processing trauma. In the immediate aftermath, volunteers in Cebu were running storytelling and “bibliotherapy” sessions with children in evacuation centres even before the typhoon made landfall — art and story as a first response, not an afterthought, much as the clown routine became at Vellarmala.

Nepal’s 2015 earthquake response took a more structural approach to a problem the Wayanad school solved through personal goodwill. Finn Church Aid and its Nepali partner CMC-Nepal built a peer-support network for teachers across 61 schools, training “psychosocial focal teachers” who could escalate serious cases to specialists in Kathmandu.

A needs assessment following the earthquake found more than 60 percent of affected children suffering sleep problems, alongside bullying, anxiousness and bedwetting — a set of symptoms that closely tracks what Bhaskaran describes seeing in Wayanad. What Nepal built was, in effect, an institutionalised version of what Vellarmala improvised: a formal mechanism for identifying which children need more than a routine and a smile, and where to send them.

The comparison is worth sitting with honestly rather than folding into the uplift: the expert network the Vellarmala teachers built by calling in personal favours was remarkable, but it was also contingent — a product of one community’s specific relationships and one headmaster’s persistence. Nepal’s model suggests what it might look like scaled and made durable rather than dependent on individual goodwill.

The Losses That Cannot Be Counted

There is a reason the language around this issue keeps reaching for something beyond the vocabulary of disaster economics. A damage assessment can price a destroyed school building, a washed-out road, a flattened home. It is far harder to price a child’s lost friendship, a familiar playground, or the emotional security that came from an intact community.

The UN Framework Convention on Climate Change has a formal category for this: non-economic loss and damage (NELD) — harm that resists financial quantification, spanning loss of life and health to the erosion of territory, cultural heritage, and social and cultural identity.

For children, these losses are acutely personal. Harjeet Singh, climate activist and founding director of the Satat Sampada Climate Foundation, told EdPublica that the destruction of a school should never be filed simply under lost infrastructure. “For children, a school is a sanctuary, a site of identity, and an ecosystem of emotional safety,” he says. What a disaster like Wayanad’s takes, in his framing, includes shattered social bonds and the sudden disappearance of the developmental environment a child grew up inside — which is why, he argues, recovery cannot stop at concrete and steel. “Recovery cannot just be about pouring concrete,” Singh says. “It must be about restoring the social fabric.”

This is no longer only a conceptual argument. The Fund for Responding to Loss and Damage, operational under the UNFCCC since 2022 and hosted in the Philippines with the World Bank as its interim trustee, holds close to $488 million, with a first round of disbursements — roughly $250 million — scheduled to begin rolling out in 2025 and 2026. Mental health and psychosocial support is explicitly listed among the categories countries can submit project proposals for, alongside cultural heritage preservation and dignified relocation.

In principle, this means the kind of psychosocial infrastructure Nepal built with international NGO funding after 2015 — and the kind Vellarmala’s teachers had to invent themselves in 2024 — now has a formal funding channel it could be built through, if Kerala or the Government of India chose to apply.

What India’s Own Guidelines Say

India is not without a policy framework for exactly this problem — which makes the Vellarmala story more pointed, not less. The National Disaster Management Authority, working with the Tata Institute of Social Sciences’ Rahbar programme, updated its National Disaster Management Guidelines on Mental Health and Psychosocial Support Services in Disasters in 2023, setting out a trauma-informed, whole-of-society approach meant to be built into every stage of the disaster management cycle, not bolted on afterward.

Alongside it sits the older National School Safety Policy Guidelines of 2016, which task School Management Committees and a designated “Safety Focal Point Teacher” in each school with disaster preparedness — including, on paper, psychosocial elements, though the bulk of that programme’s implementation history runs toward physical safety: building codes, mock drills, evacuation plans.

Two things are worth sitting with here. First, the guidelines exist — India is not starting from zero the way some of its neighbours were in 2015. Second, none of what the guidelines describe appears to have reached Vellarmala in July 2024. What the teachers built — the interest-mapping, the expert network, the sustained follow-through into exam season — was invented on the ground, by people with no formal psychosocial training, drawing on personal contacts rather than a state or district implementation plan.

That gap between the guideline and the ground is, in its own way, the story: India has written down roughly what Nepal built through international NGO funding, but writing it down and delivering it to a village school in Meppadi panchayat during the actual emergency turned out to be two very different things.

What This Adds Up To

Set side by side, Wayanad, Tacloban and the villages of rural Nepal point toward the same conclusion from three different directions: formal mental health infrastructure for children after a climate disaster is, almost everywhere, arriving late, underfunded, or not at all — and the gap is being filled, when it is filled, by whoever is standing closest to the child. Sometimes that is a trained peer-support teacher network built with international funding. Sometimes it is two teachers in clown costumes who happened to believe art might help.

Both approaches worked, to a point. But only one of them is replicable on demand, in a district that doesn’t happen to have a headmaster with the right personal contacts. That is the uncomfortable finding underneath the uplifting parts of this story: what saved Vellarmala’s children was extraordinary improvisation under pressure, not policy — and extraordinary improvisation is, by definition, not something the next disaster-hit school can count on.

Rebuilding a Childhood

Chooralmala’s teachers never had the power to restore everything the landslide took. They could not bring back the children who died. They could not recreate the old school, or return the community to what it was before July 30, 2024.

What they did was give children back a routine when their lives had been upended. They found each child’s individual talent when grief had become the only story anyone was telling about them. They brought artists, scientists and experts into children’s lives who would otherwise never have crossed paths with a village school in Wayanad. They encouraged children to dance, sing, perform, experiment and compete — and when children struggled, as the SSLC refusals showed they still would, the teachers stayed rather than declaring the recovery finished.

What Chooralmala’s teachers proved is not that children are resilient. That word is used too easily after disasters, as though recovery is something that simply happens with time. It isn’t. Resilience had to be built—patiently, deliberately, by teachers who chose to replace silence with music, grief with art, isolation with friendship, and fear with purpose.

The tragedy is that none of this should have depended on extraordinary people doing extraordinary things. By the time the next flood, landslide or cyclone tears through another school, children should not have to wait for a headmaster with the right contacts or two teachers willing to arrive dressed as clowns. They should find a system that already knows how to help them heal.

Climate change is making disasters more frequent, putting schools in the path of floods, landslides and storms. When classrooms disappear, books are lost and playgrounds are buried, rebuilding the school is only the beginning. The harder task is helping children rebuild the sense of safety, routine and childhood that the disaster took from them.

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