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The Next Five Years Could Be Earth’s Hottest Yet, WMO Warns

A new WMO forecast warns that Earth could see new global temperature records before 2030, with Arctic warming continuing to outpace the global average.

Joe Jacob

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Image credit: Pexels

Global temperature record levels are likely to be challenged again before the end of this decade, according to a new World Meteorological Organization forecast. Scientists say there is a high chance that one of the next five years will become the warmest ever recorded, as rising greenhouse gas emissions and a possible El Niño event continue to push the planet toward new climate extremes.

The world is heading into another stretch of exceptional heat, with a strong chance that a new global temperature record will be set before the end of the decade.

According to a new assessment from the World Meteorological Organization (WMO), global temperatures are expected to remain at or near record levels between 2026 and 2030, extending a warming trend that has already pushed climate indicators into uncharted territory.

The report paints a picture of a planet that continues to warm despite international efforts to curb greenhouse gas emissions. While the Paris Agreement aims to limit long-term warming to 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels, scientists now estimate there is a 91% chance that at least one of the next five years will temporarily cross that threshold.

Global Temperature Record Could Be Broken Again by 2030

Even more striking, there is a 75% chance that the average temperature across the entire five-year period from 2026 to 2030 will exceed 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels.

The findings do not mean the Paris Agreement has officially failed. The agreement’s temperature targets are measured over decades rather than individual years. Still, climate scientists view the growing frequency of these temporary breaches as a sign of how rapidly the planet is approaching those long-term limits.

The report projects annual global temperatures during 2026–2030 to range between 1.3°C and 1.9°C above the 1850–1900 average. There is also an 86% chance that one of those years will surpass 2024, currently the warmest year ever recorded.

One factor behind the forecast is the likely return of El Niño conditions in the tropical Pacific Ocean.

2027 Could Become the Next Global Temperature Record Year

Dr. Leon Hermanson, lead author of the report, said: “There is an El Niño predicted for the end of 2026, which increases the chances of the following year, 2027, being the next record-breaking year.”

El Niño events typically raise global temperatures by releasing additional heat from the Pacific Ocean into the atmosphere. When combined with the long-term warming caused by greenhouse gas emissions, they can push global temperatures to new highs.

Global Temperature Record Highlights Faster Arctic Warming

While rising temperatures affect every region, the Arctic continues to stand out.

The WMO forecasts that Arctic temperatures during the next five northern hemisphere winters will average about 2.8°C above the 1991–2020 baseline. That is more than three times the projected global average anomaly over the same period.

Scientists have long observed that the Arctic is warming faster than the rest of the world, a phenomenon known as Arctic amplification. The consequences include shrinking sea ice, thawing permafrost and disruptions to weather patterns far beyond the polar region.

The report also points to continued declines in sea ice across parts of the Arctic, particularly in the Barents Sea, Bering Sea and the Sea of Okhotsk.

A Wetter North, A Drier South

The warming climate is also reshaping rainfall patterns.

According to the forecast, northern high-latitude regions are likely to experience wetter-than-average winters over the next five years. Increased rainfall is also expected across parts of the tropics.

At the same time, many subtropical regions are projected to become drier. The Amazon is among the areas where below-average rainfall is considered more likely during the coming years.

Seasonal forecasts for 2026–2030 suggest wetter conditions in the Sahel region of Africa, northern Europe, Alaska and Siberia. Such shifts are consistent with what climate scientists have long expected in a warming world, where a warmer atmosphere holds more moisture and alters long-established rainfall patterns.

Beyond Records

The report is not simply about whether another temperature record will be broken.

For governments, businesses and communities, the findings serve as a reminder that climate change is increasingly shaping everyday realities—from agriculture and water supplies to infrastructure, health and disaster preparedness.

The assessment was produced by the UK Met Office on behalf of the WMO and draws on forecasts from 13 international climate centres. Scientists say confidence in the temperature projections is high because similar forecasting systems have performed well when tested against past climate conditions.

If the projections prove accurate, the second half of this decade could become a defining period in the world’s climate story—not because warming suddenly accelerates, but because the consequences of a steadily warming planet become harder to ignore.

Climate

India Scores Just 2 Out of 32 for Integrating Health into Climate Commitments

India has scored just 2 out of 32 in a global assessment of how national climate commitments integrate public health. The 2026 Healthy NDC Scorecard highlights gaps in India’s approach to air pollution, climate-related health risks and the implementation of health-focused climate action.

Jishnu P

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Stethoscope, medical mask and red heart symbolising the links between public health and climate action.
India has scored just 2 out of 32 in a global assessment of how national climate commitments integrate public health. The 2026 Healthy NDC Scorecard highlights gaps in India's approach to air pollution, climate-related health risks and the implementation of health-focused climate action.

India has scored just two out of a possible 32 points for integrating health into its climate commitments, placing it among the lowest-performing countries in a new global assessment of national climate plans. The findings highlight a significant gap between climate policy and public health in a country grappling with severe air pollution and growing exposure to climate-related hazards.

The Healthy NDC Scorecard, published on October 14 by the Global Climate and Health Alliance (GCHA), assessed the climate plans of 132 countries that submitted their 2035 commitments to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change before August 1, 2026. Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) outline the climate actions countries intend to undertake under the Paris Agreement.

India’s score of 2 out of 32 indicates that its latest climate commitment does not adequately recognise the connections between climate change, air quality and human health. Japan and New Zealand received the same score, placing all three among the lowest-scoring countries in the assessment.

The findings are particularly significant for India because the country continues to face a substantial burden of air-pollution-related deaths. The scorecard cites State of Global Air data indicating 186.2 air-pollution deaths per 100,000 people in India, underscoring the scale of the public health challenge.

Health missing from climate planning

The scorecard evaluates national climate commitments across eight categories: health impacts, air pollution, health-sector action, health co-benefits, just transition, integrated governance, economics and finance, and monitoring and implementation.

Each category carries a maximum of four points. Together, they assess whether governments recognise the health consequences of climate change and pollution, outline measures to address them, provide for implementation and monitoring, and connect climate action with wider public health benefits.

India’s scorecard records zero points in six categories: health impacts, air pollution, health-sector action, health co-benefits, just transition, and economics and finance. It receives one point for integrated governance and one for monitoring and implementation.

The assessment also identifies India among the countries that do not refer to air-pollution considerations in their NDCs, despite its high air-pollution mortality burden. The report further states that India’s emissions-reduction targets have been assessed by Climate Action Tracker as not aligned with the Paris Agreement.

These findings suggest that the challenge extends beyond setting emissions targets. Climate commitments also need to address how rising temperatures, deteriorating air quality and extreme weather affect people, and how governments will monitor and finance measures to reduce those risks.

Developing countries lead the rankings

The results show that stronger integration of health into climate planning is possible. Colombia topped the assessment with 29 points, followed by Nigeria with 25 and Cambodia with 24. Paraguay and Timor-Leste completed the top five, scoring 22 points each.

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India Scores Just 2 Out of 32 for Integrating Health into Climate Commitments. Image credit:NDC Scorecard

Notably, 19 of the 20 highest-scoring countries were low- and middle-income economies. Colombia’s performance demonstrates how health considerations can be incorporated more comprehensively into national climate commitments.

However, the report cautions against interpreting a higher health score as evidence that a country is doing enough to reduce emissions. Nigeria, for example, combines a high score for health integration with strong climate ambition, while several other high-emitting economies have not matched their attention to health with sufficiently ambitious emissions-reduction targets.

The European Union scored 12, while China, Brazil and the United Kingdom scored nine, seven and nine respectively. The assessment found that these and other major emitters continued to fall short of the emissions reductions needed to protect health.

The findings illustrate two related requirements for effective climate policy: governments must recognise and address the health consequences of climate change, while also reducing emissions sufficiently to limit future warming.

Air pollution offers an immediate opportunity

The GCHA report identifies reductions in short-lived climate pollutants as an opportunity to deliver simultaneous climate and health benefits. These include black carbon, methane, hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs) and tropospheric ozone, which contribute to warming and, in several cases, harm human health through air pollution.

Only five countries — Cambodia, Chile, Colombia, Costa Rica and Paraguay — included targets to reduce black carbon in their climate commitments, according to the assessment.

Reducing these pollutants can slow near-term warming while improving air quality and reducing associated health risks. The report argues that these measures can generate benefits within relatively short periods, alongside the longer-term necessity of cutting carbon dioxide emissions.

For India, the absence of air-pollution considerations from its assessed NDC represents a missed opportunity to connect climate action with an existing public health priority. Integrating air-quality targets into climate planning could help policymakers address pollution and climate risks through a more coordinated approach.

Finance remains a critical challenge

The scorecard also highlights the gap between climate commitments and the resources required to implement them. Citing the latest State of Global Air Quality Funding report, the GCHA says outdoor air-quality funding receives less than one per cent of development funding, despite air pollution’s estimated economic costs amounting to five per cent of global gross domestic product through health impacts, lost productivity and reduced life expectancy.

The report argues that countries need adequate finance to translate national commitments into measures that protect communities. This is especially important for developing economies facing substantial climate risks while having fewer resources to implement adaptation and health-protection measures.

With the 31st United Nations Climate Change Conference (COP31) approaching, the GCHA identifies climate finance as a key issue for international negotiations. It also stresses the importance of maintaining commitments to a just transition away from fossil fuels, which has implications for workers, communities and public health.

For India, the scorecard provides a benchmark against which future climate commitments can be assessed. Its findings point to the need for stronger recognition of health impacts, explicit attention to air pollution, better coordination across sectors, and clearer provisions for financing and monitoring implementation.

The assessment does not measure the full extent of India’s climate or public health policies; it evaluates how health considerations are reflected in the country’s submitted climate commitment. Nevertheless, its central message is clear: climate plans need to do more than promise emissions reductions. They must also demonstrate how climate action will protect people’s health.

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The Monsoon’s New Rhythm: Less Rain, More Intense Downpours

India’s deficient 2026 monsoon highlights the risks of uneven rainfall, from long dry spells to intense downpours, floods and landslides.

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Lightning strikes beneath dark storm clouds as heavy rain falls over a town near green hills.
Intense rainfall and thunderstorms highlight the risks associated with extreme monsoon weather. Representational image. Image credit: Gleive Marcio Rodrigues de Souza/ Pexels

India’s 2026 monsoon ended with a significant rainfall deficit, yet intense downpours continued to cause concern. The changing monsoon pattern raises questions about floods, landslides and how the country prepares for extreme weather. India’s southwest monsoon ended in 2026 with 13% less rainfall than normal, according to the analysis by Climate Trends. Yet a shortage of rain over the season does not mean that every part of the country remained dry. Some places experienced heavy downpours even as others faced long periods without enough rain.

This is one of the challenges of a changing monsoon. Rain may fall heavily within a few hours and then disappear for days or weeks. Such a pattern can leave farmers struggling with dry soil while exposing other areas to sudden floods and landslides. The important question is not simply how much rain India receives each year. It is also how quickly the rain falls, where it falls and how prepared communities are to deal with it.

Less Rain Can Still Mean Floods

Monsoon rainfall is usually measured by comparing the total amount received during the season with the long-term average. This helps scientists understand whether a season has been wetter or drier than normal. But the total does not reveal how the rain was spread across the four months.

Imagine a district that receives most of its seasonal rainfall in just a few days. The total may look reasonable, but the heavy downpours could flood roads, damage homes and wash away crops. The same district could then face several weeks without rain, leaving its fields dry.

Changing monsoon
A sudden cloudburst leaves city roads submerged, disrupting traffic as floodwater spreads across an urban stretch. Representational image. Image credit: Dibakar Roy/ Pexels

Research shows that rainfall patterns have changed in several parts of India. A study published in npj Climate and Atmospheric Science in 2024 found that short periods of heavy rain had become more frequent in central India in recent decades. It also found an increase in longer spells of heavy rain along the northern west coast. The changes were not the same everywhere, with some regions showing different trends. These findings show why seasonal rainfall figures alone cannot explain the risks people face.

The 2026 monsoon analysis by Climate Trends also points to changes in the way weather systems move across India. Mahesh Palawat, vice-president of meteorology and climate change at Skymet Weather, said low-pressure systems were spending more time over land while retaining their strength. He linked this behaviour to an increase in extreme rainfall events and cloudburst-like conditions. Understanding these changes is important because the effects of a monsoon depend partly on when and where the rain arrives.

Changing Monsoon: Are Cloudbursts Becoming More Common?

The word cloudburst is often used to describe any sudden spell of very heavy rain. However, it has a specific meaning in weather science. The India Meteorological Department defines a cloudburst as rainfall of 100 millimetres or more within one hour over a small area. Such a large amount of rain falling in a short time can quickly flood low-lying areas and trigger landslides, particularly in mountainous regions.

Not every flood or heavy downpour is a cloudburst. Flooding can also happen when rain continues for several hours, rivers overflow or drainage systems fail to carry away the water. Identifying a cloudburst requires rainfall measurements that confirm how much rain fell and how quickly it arrived.

Forecasting these events is difficult because they affect relatively small areas. A weather forecast may warn of heavy rain across a district without identifying the exact village or hillside that will receive the most intense rainfall. Research has found changes in extreme rainfall in parts of India, but this does not establish that cloudbursts are becoming more frequent throughout the country. More detailed records are needed to determine whether the frequency of cloudbursts themselves has increased.

The broader concern is that intense rainfall can cause serious damage, especially where people and infrastructure are exposed to floods and landslides.

How Climate Change Adds to the Risk

A warmer atmosphere can hold more moisture. When weather conditions allow that moisture to form rain, it can contribute to heavier downpours. Climate change does not cause every extreme rainfall event, and the amount of rain produced also depends on wind patterns, local geography and other weather conditions.

The developing El Niño is another factor to watch. This natural climate phenomenon involves warmer-than-usual sea surface temperatures in the tropical Pacific Ocean and can influence India’s monsoon and temperatures. Its effects vary from one event to another.

In the 2026 Climate Trends analysis, climate scientist Roxy Mathew Koll of the Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology said global warming raises background temperatures and can intensify some of El Niño’s effects. He also highlighted how changes in land use, including deforestation, can worsen local impacts.

Ground Matters as much as the Weather

In hilly areas, heavy rain can soak the soil and make slopes unstable. Cutting into hillsides, removing vegetation and building on vulnerable slopes can increase the danger. When large amounts of rain arrive in a short period, water can rush downhill, carrying soil, rocks and debris with it.

Cities face a different problem. Roads, buildings and paved surfaces prevent much of the rainwater from soaking into the ground. If drains are blocked or too small to carry the water, streets can flood quickly. Building over wetlands and natural waterways also reduces the space available for excess water to flow or collect safely.

These activities do not create a cloudburst. They can, however, make its effects more destructive. Kerala offers an important example. The state recorded a 28% monsoon rainfall deficit in 2026, according to the Climate Trends analysis. Yet its steep Western Ghats slopes, rivers and densely populated areas remain exposed to the dangers of intense rainfall.

A season with less rain overall can still include localised downpours capable of causing serious damage. A rainfall deficit does not remove the risk of floods or landslides.

Beginning with Better warnings

Weather forecasts can help people prepare for heavy rain, but warnings alone cannot prevent disasters. Their effectiveness depends on whether people receive them in time, understand the danger and have a safe place to go.

India needs more reliable rainfall monitoring, particularly in mountain districts, landslide-prone areas and cities that frequently experience flooding. Automatic rain gauges and weather radars can help authorities track how much rain is falling and identify dangerous conditions. These systems also need regular maintenance and timely sharing of information.

Warnings must be useful at the local level. Telling residents that heavy rain is expected across a district may not be enough for people living beside a stream or below an unstable hillside. Local authorities need maps showing which settlements face the greatest risks, along with clear evacuation routes, shelters and plans for moving people to safety.

The way land is used also needs attention. Construction in flood-prone areas and on unstable slopes can expose more people to danger. Protecting wetlands, keeping natural drainage channels clear and preserving vegetation where it helps stabilise slopes can reduce some of the damage caused by heavy rain.

Infrastructure must be able to handle intense downpours. Drains, culverts and bridges need to be assessed against local rainfall conditions, while buildings and roads in vulnerable areas require appropriate flood and slope-risk assessments. Better planning can reduce the likelihood that heavy rain will turn into a disaster.

Preparing for dry spells is equally important. Rainwater harvesting, groundwater management and better soil care can help communities cope when rainfall becomes irregular. Farmers can also improve their resilience by choosing suitable crops and practices that require less water, depending on local conditions.

Planning for Both Floods and Droughts

India depends on the monsoon for farming, drinking water and replenishing rivers and reservoirs. But the seasonal total does not tell the whole story when rainfall is unevenly distributed.

Long dry spells can reduce soil moisture and put pressure on water supplies. Intense downpours can overwhelm drainage systems, damage crops and trigger landslides. Both risks can occur within the same monsoon season. The evidence supports closer monitoring of extreme rainfall and better preparation for its consequences. It does not yet justify claiming that cloudbursts are increasing everywhere in India.

Preparing for this changing pattern requires better weather observations, warnings that reach vulnerable communities, safer construction and protection of natural drainage systems. Water management and agriculture must also account for the possibility of long gaps between rain spells.

No forecasting system can prevent every extreme weather event. But better preparation can help people respond sooner and reduce the damage when intense rain arrives. The challenge is to prepare for the rain India receives, rather than rely only on how much rain the monsoon is expected to bring.

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Heatwaves are Affecting Fertility Traits in Bees.

A new study finds that heatwave exposure during early development can impair fertility-related traits in solitary bees, raising concerns about the potential effects of extreme heat on pollinator populations.

Jishnu P

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A honeybee perched on a white flower, collecting pollen from its yellow stamens.
Bees play a vital role in pollination, but rising temperatures may threaten their reproductive health and long-term survival.Image credit:Pexels

Bees are an attractive species to capture on your mobile phone. They may fit well into the aesthetic imagery of our habitats. But recent studies warn that, in the near future, it might become more convenient to create an AI image of a bee than to spot one in our environment.

There are around 20,400 recorded species of bees in the world. More than 90% do not live in hives or produce honey. This percentage is even higher in India, where, of the approximately 700 bee species, only five are social bees that live in hives and produce honey. The rest are “solitary” bees, with no social hierarchy. These bees live alone, forage and fend for themselves. Moreover, they play an important role in our world.

A new study has reported alarming findings about the fertility traits of these solitary bees. Titled “Lasting impacts of sublethal prepupal heatwaves on fertility-related traits of the solitary bee Osmia bicornis,” the study reveals that simulated sublethal heatwaves during the prepupal stage alter fertility-related traits in solitary bees.

The study investigated the effects of a field-realistic, three-day fluctuating heatwave regime, with temperatures below 40°C and below the critical thermal maximum (CTmax) for this species, replicating the temperature conditions experienced in the UK during July 2022. After the bees overwintered following juvenile exposure, researchers assessed male sperm and female oocytes to examine the effects on reproductive traits.

The study found that, although there was no direct effect on survival to adulthood, male sperm counts were reduced by 33% and sperm motility by 53%, while sperm length was shortened by 17%. In females, oocyte production was reduced by 15%, along with a 17% reduction in terminal oocyte volume.

In bees and many other insect species, testicular development and spermatogenesis usually begin during the prepupal and pupal phases, when the heat stress regime was applied. This period has been found to be thermally sensitive, with heat stress interfering with normal reproductive development. The heatwave simulated in the study may therefore have impaired testicular development and initial sperm production, reducing sperm numbers in adult bees despite the months of overwintering between exposure and assessment.

Reductions in sperm numbers and quality may affect fertilization. Previous research has found that elevated temperatures of 29°C led to decreased sperm abundance, reducing egg fertilization rates and embryo development.

Although this experimental approach does not allow for a detailed exploration of thermal thresholds or breakpoints, it provides valuable insights into the potential biological consequences of ecologically realistic, fluctuating heat stress, as experienced during heatwaves in nature.

Solitary bees are crucial to the pollination of several crops, including cucurbits, blueberries, cranberries, tomatoes, eggplants, apples, plums and almonds, as well as various lentils and other crops. These bees are efficient pollinators because they carry dry pollen across their bodies, potentially making them more effective than honeybees for certain crops.

This is not an isolated area of research. Another study published in 2023 also examined the damaging effects of heat on sperm production in bees, focusing on bumblebees of the genus Bombus.The study found that exposing whole male bumblebees to 4°C for 85 minutes, isolated seminal vesicles to 4°C for 85 minutes ,and whole males to 4°C for 48 hours did not significantly affect sperm viability.

However, after 85 minutes at 45°C, males showed significantly reduced sperm viability. This suggests that short-term heatwaves below the critical thermal maximum could substantially reduce male bumblebee fertility, with potential population-level consequences.

The thermal tolerance of worker bumblebees is relatively high, with a CTmax of approximately 48–55°C, making it unlikely that they would experience these temperatures under ordinary conditions, even with climate warming. However, the thermal tolerance of whole organisms often exceeds that of their reproductive cells. Many insects can be sterilised by exposure to temperatures well below their upper thermal tolerance.

Why Should This Matter?

Pollination, a crucial process for maintaining the planet’s biodiversity and food security, is primarily driven by bees and other insect pollinators.

In agricultural systems, pollinators are essential for producing a wide range of crops, including orchard fruits, horticultural crops and forage, as well as seeds for root and fibre crops. Pollinators contribute to approximately 35% of global crop production by volume, enhancing the yields of 87 of the 115 major food crops and numerous medicinal plants.(FOA data)

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Bees pollinating on a flower.Image credit:Pexels

The benefits of pollination extend beyond improving the quantity and quality of food production. Pollinator-dependent plants contribute to the production of many micronutrients and vitamins that are important for human nutrition and dietary diversity.

The Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) also points out that more than 80% of wild flowering plant species are pollinated by animals, mostly insects.

Bees and other pollinators face significant threats, with current extinction rates estimated to be 100 to 1,000 times higher than natural background rates due to human activities. According to the International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN), national Red List assessments indicate that around 40% of bee species assessed in some regions are at risk of extinction, while 16.5% of vertebrate pollinators are at risk of global extinction.

Habitat loss and fragmentation, intensive farming, monocultures, pesticides, pests, diseases and climate change-related impacts, such as temperature extremes and shifts in flowering times, are major contributing factors to pollinator decline. These pressures can disrupt the balance between flowering plants and their pollinators.

To establish whether the observed reproductive changes translate into fewer offspring, declining populations or substantially reduced pollination under real-world conditions, further research and evidence are needed. However, habitat fragmentation, climate change, extreme heat and biodiversity loss are already placing increasing pressure on ecosystems. Understanding how these stressors affect the reproductive capacity of bees is therefore essential to assessing the potential long-term consequences for biodiversity and food security.

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