Samej, in Himachal Pradesh's Shimla district, has witnessed repeated monsoon disasters in recent years. For many residents, every spell of heavy rain now revives memories of loss and uncertainty.Photo: Raman Kant
“As soon as the monsoon arrives, fear spreads across the village. People panic because they have already seen what these rains can do. In 2023 and again in 2025, many families here lost their homes, farmland and orchards to monsoon disasters. The moment it starts raining heavily, everyone fears history will repeat itself.”
Het Ram, a resident of Siraj Valley in Himachal Pradesh’s Mandi district, pauses before adding a detail that has quietly become part of everyday life. Most households in his village now keep their important documents, first-aid kits, clothes, dry food, drinking water, ropes and tarpaulin packed together in one corner of the house, ready to be carried at a moment’s notice if disaster strikes.
“Without our documents, we cannot even claim government compensation,” he says.
Why Himachal Pradesh Floods Continue to Haunt Survivors
Het Ram’s experience is shared by families across many villages in Himachal Pradesh, where the monsoon — once welcomed as a season of abundance — has increasingly become synonymous with fear. With the first spell of July rain comes an unspoken anxiety that settles over entire communities. People’s eyes remain fixed not on the clouds but on the fragile mountain slopes towering above their homes. A spell of intense rainfall is enough to keep families awake through the night. Fluctuating blood pressure, panic attacks, insomnia and chronic stress have gradually become a routine part of life in the state’s vulnerable mountain settlements.
Left: Het Ram stands in his orchard in Siraj Valley, where repeated monsoon disasters have transformed the rainy season into one of anxiety and uncertainty. Right: Het Ram’s cowshed, damaged during successive monsoon disasters, reflects the lasting impact of floods and landslides on livelihoods in Himachal Pradesh.Photos: Raman Kant
Psychologists describe this condition as anticipatory anxiety — the distress that emerges not after a traumatic event but from the constant fear that it may happen again. A study of disaster survivors in Uttarakhand found that repeated exposure to natural disasters leaves people in a permanent state of hypervigilance: interrupted sleep, startling at the slightest sound, and feeling anxious the moment it begins to rain had become routine for many of those affected.
‘I fear the mountain above my home may collapse’
Chudamani
For 56-year-old Chudamani of Sarpada village in Rampur subdivision, July is no longer just another month — it is a season of dread.
Whenever it rains, sleep deserts her. She spends hours sitting outside her house, her eyes fixed on the hillside looming overhead. A single fear keeps returning: What if the mountain gives way? What if everything is gone within seconds?
The fear has haunted her ever since the devastating flash floods of July 2024, when a swollen Samej Khad swept away both her two-storey house and her vehicle.
“Nowhere feels safe anymore,” says her husband, Chatar Singh. “The moment the rains begin, fear settles into our minds. Every spell of heavy rain makes us wonder which family’s home will be destroyed next.”
The scale of destruction behind the anxiety
According to the Himachal Pradesh State Disaster Management Authority, 2,108 people lost their lives during the monsoon seasons between 2020 and 2025, while property worth thousands of crores of rupees was destroyed.
The 2023 monsoon alone claimed 404 lives, left 38 people missing and forced more than 50,000 people to abandon their homes. A total of 2,546 houses were completely destroyed and another 10,853 suffered partial damage. Overall losses crossed INR 12,000 crore.
On August 14, 2023, a landslide in Shimla city killed 20 people. The following year, a cloudburst in the Samej area of Shimla district triggered flash floods that washed away 32 houses and claimed 36 lives. These recurring disasters across Shimla, Mandi and Kullu districts have left behind more than physical and economic devastation — every monsoon now revives memories of loss, uncertainty and the fear of losing loved ones all over again.
‘Not even a needle found after floods’
Alok Kumar of Sarpada village in Rampur embodies the depth of this trauma.
His ancestral home in Samej village was completely washed away in the 2024 floods. His mother and eight tenants lost their lives in the disaster.
“The flood was so devastating that not even a needle remained from our 21-room house,” he recalls. “I still haven’t recovered from that tragedy. Every time I hear about floods or landslides, the entire scene flashes before my eyes. We live in the mountains, so there is always the fear that another disaster could strike at any time.”
He says disasters have become an annual reality.
“For the last three years, something has happened every monsoon. It has increased stress and anxiety among almost everyone in the village. Even the elderly say they have never witnessed anything like this before.”
Despite struggling emotionally, Alok has never sought professional help. Like many others in disaster-prone regions, he considers such distress an unavoidable part of life in the hills.
What doctors are seeing
Mental health professionals in Himachal Pradesh say the psychological toll of climate disasters is becoming more visible, even though systematic evidence from the state is still lacking.
Dr Dinesh Dutt, a psychiatrist at Indira Gandhi Medical College (IGMC), Shimla, says climate change is directly influencing people’s mental well-being.
“Climate has a direct impact on mental health. After monsoon disasters, many survivors continue to relive the traumatic event. Distressing thoughts, memories and images keep recurring in their minds. Clinically, we recognise these symptoms as anxiety and post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD). We are seeing such cases in hospitals, and our assessments suggest that climate-related events are contributing to these psychological conditions. However, there is still no systematic research that conclusively establishes this link in Himachal Pradesh.”
He adds that the state currently lacks a comprehensive database documenting climate-related mental health cases.
The concerns raised by clinicians are echoed in scientific literature. A review published in Frontiers in Public Health (2025) found that sudden climate-related disasters such as floods, landslides and cyclones frequently lead to PTSD and acute anxiety, while repeated exposure to such events has been associated with depression, hopelessness and, in some cases, suicidal thoughts. Mental health experts believe a similar pattern is gradually emerging in the rural regions of Himachal Pradesh.
Children are carrying the burden too
The psychological impact of recurring disasters is becoming increasingly visible among children.
Mukta, a government schoolteacher in Rohru, says classroom behaviour has changed noticeably since the devastating monsoon of 2023.
“Children have become frightened of the rains. During heavy rainfall, some of them become unusually quiet. Since Rohru is an apple-growing region, many children also worry that their family’s orchards and livelihoods may be destroyed.”
Poonam’s ten-year-old daughter, who lives in Shimla, has also developed an intense fear of the monsoon. Their residential building was declared unsafe after a landslide last year, forcing the family to live with relatives for ten days.
“Since that incident, she has developed a deep sense of insecurity,” Poonam says. “Every time it starts raining, that fear returns.”
For teenagers, the consequences are often less visible but equally profound.
Ashish Dogra, a Class XII student from Ramnagar in Shimla, says the rainy season has transformed childhood routines.
“During the monsoon, no one goes out to play anymore. We stay indoors all day. We talk to friends on the phone, but after a while it becomes boring. Sometimes that isolation makes us irritable and angry.”
Psychologist Neelam Bali says children’s emotional responses are closely linked to the anxiety they observe within their own families.
“When children see their parents constantly worried, they internalise that stress. Most are unable to express their emotions openly, and over time the anxiety begins to show in their behaviour. It eventually affects their studies and overall school performance.”
She emphasises that parents need to encourage open conversations with children.
“Play is one of the most effective ways for children to cope with stress. If they remain cut off from outdoor activities for long periods, they are more likely to experience loneliness, irritability and anger.”
Dr Dutt adds that climate disasters affect children, adults and older people in different ways. “If survivors do not receive timely psychological first aid, the long-term health consequences can be significant.”
When landscapes become a source of grief
Natural disasters alter far more than homes, roads and livelihoods. They also transform people’s emotional relationship with the landscapes they have known all their lives.
When the mountains that once symbolised safety and belonging suddenly become a source of destruction, recovering emotionally is rarely easy.
Researchers describe this experience as solastalgia — the distress people feel when the environment they identify as home is damaged or transformed. Unlike nostalgia, which is a longing for a place left behind, solastalgia emerges while people remain in the very place they call home, watching it deteriorate around them. Over time, this distress can deepen into prolonged grief, anxiety and depression.
Shifting homes in search of safety
Discussions around migration from Himachal Pradesh’s hill districts have traditionally centred on employment, education and infrastructure. But a new driver is quietly emerging: the search for psychological security.
For some families, the fear of living in disaster-prone areas has become so overwhelming that they are abandoning ancestral homes for places they perceive to be safer.
Prabhat Chand, 47, a government school lecturer from Rampur, is one such resident. After the devastating floods in Samej, he decided to leave the area and build a new home nearly 17 kilometres away in Sarpada village.
Prabhat Chand. After the devastating floods in Samej, Chand decided to leave the area and build a new home nearly 17 kilometres away in Sarpada village. Photo: Raman Kant
“Most of the families affected by the disaster have moved elsewhere,” he says. “The flood was so destructive that the place no longer feels fit for habitation.”
Ruchi, who lives in Tutu on the outskirts of Shimla, also shifted to another rented house after repeated monsoon scares. Her previous home stood beside a seasonal stream, and every spell of heavy rainfall made her anxiety worse.
“Whenever I saw news reports of rain-related disasters, I became anxious. Watching the water level in the stream rise only intensified that fear,” she says.
Although she still worries during the monsoon, moving to a different neighbourhood has eased the constant panic she once experienced.
Mental health remains missing from disaster response
Himachal Pradesh has made significant progress in recognising the health risks posed by climate change. The state has adopted the State Action Plan on Climate Change and Human Health (2022–27) and established a Climate Change and Human Health Cell to strengthen public health preparedness.
Illustration/S James/EdPublica
The plan focuses on physical health, disease surveillance, healthcare infrastructure resilience, early warnings and logistics, but does not address mental health support or psychological care for disaster-affected populations.
While the Climate Change and Human Health Cell provides training to healthcare workers and Accredited Social Health Activists (ASHAs) on mental health and psychological first aid, experts say these efforts have yet to translate into meaningful support on the ground.
Dr Sanjay Pathak, former Director of the Himachal Pradesh Mental Health Authority, believes disaster management continues to prioritise physical rehabilitation over psychological recovery.
“Government responses after disasters understandably focus on relief and rehabilitation,” he says. “But very little attention is paid to what kind of psychological intervention survivors require. Unless mental health becomes an integral part of disaster response, people will continue to live with a persistent sense of insecurity.”
Dr Dutt points to another challenge: the severe shortage of trained mental health professionals.
“The frequency of disasters is increasing much faster than our capacity to provide psychological support. For now, community and family networks are helping people cope. But as those social structures weaken, the need for professional mental health services will become much greater.”
The policy gap extends beyond Himachal Pradesh. An analysis published by the Observer Research Foundation (ORF) notes that disaster management strategies in India remain largely centred on rescue operations, rehabilitation and rebuilding infrastructure, with mental health support yet to be systematically integrated into these frameworks. The analysis also found that psychological disorders following natural disasters are 40 per cent more common than physical injuries — underscoring the need to treat mental health as a core part of disaster preparedness and recovery.
What needs to change?
Both Dr Pathak and Dr Dutt agree that psychosocial care must become a standard part of emergency relief rather than an afterthought. They identify three immediate priorities: training schoolteachers to provide basic psychosocial support to children affected by disasters; strengthening the capacity of ASHA workers and frontline health personnel to identify and respond to psychological distress; and expanding access to counselling and mental health services in disaster-affected communities.
For a Himalayan state facing ever more frequent extreme weather, integrating mental health into disaster management is no longer simply a public health recommendation — it is a necessity.
As climate change continues to reshape the mountains, it is also reshaping the emotional landscape of the people who call them home. The landslides and floods may disappear once the rains recede, but for many survivors, the fear remains — returning every monsoon, long before the first cloudburst.
Raman Kant is a mentee at the Asian College of Journalism’s Climate Change Media Hub, supported by Interlink Academy, Germany.
Raman Kant is an independent journalist, columnist, and writer based in Shimla, Himachal Pradesh. With a master's degree in Journalism, he has contributed to a range of national and regional publications. His work covers agriculture, climate change, forests, biodiversity, rural development, public health, environmental governance, and politics, with a particular focus on the Himalayan region.
Global Climate Finance Hits Record $1.9 Trillion, but Vulnerable Nations Continue to Face Adaptation Funding Gap
Global climate finance reached a record $1.9 trillion in 2023–2024, but vulnerable developing countries continue to face an adaptation funding gap. As COP31 begins, questions remain over the delivery of the new $300 billion annual climate-finance target and equitable access to funding.
Global climate finance reached an unprecedented annual average of $1.9 trillion in 2023–2024, increasing by 32 per cent compared with the previous two-year period. However, despite the growth in investment, developing countries continue to face significant barriers in accessing the resources needed to adapt to climate change, according to assessments by the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) and the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD).
The findings come as countries meet for the 31st United Nations Climate Change Conference (COP31) in Antalya, Türkiye, from November 9 to 20. The conference takes place during the transition from the previous $100 billion annual climate-finance commitment to a new target of $300 billion by 2035.
Developed countries exceed $100 billion target, but questions remain
Developed countries had pledged to mobilise $100 billion annually by 2020 to support climate action in developing countries. The commitment was subsequently extended through 2025. According to the OECD’s 2026 assessment, developed countries provided and mobilised $132.8 billion in 2023 and $136.7 billion in 2024, exceeding the target for the third consecutive year.
However, the reported totals do not necessarily represent grants or money directly disbursed to developing countries. They include different forms of public finance, multilateral development bank contributions and private finance mobilised through public interventions.
Differences in accounting methods have also complicated assessments of whether countries are meeting their commitments. The UNFCCC’s 2026 assessment highlights variations in how countries report loans, grants, commitments and disbursements, making comparisons between datasets difficult.
Total global climate finance reached an annual average of USD 1.9 trillion in 2023–2024.
The earlier target is now being replaced by the New Collective Quantified Goal (NCQG), adopted at COP29 in 2024. It calls for developed countries to take the lead in mobilising at least $300 billion annually for developing countries by 2035. The wider ambition is to scale up climate finance from all sources to at least $1.3 trillion annually by the same year.
Adaptation remains dependent on public finance
The expansion of climate finance has not translated into comparable support for adaptation. Investments in mitigation, including renewable energy and low-emission transport, have attracted substantial private capital. Adaptation projects such as flood protection, resilient agriculture, water management and coastal infrastructure, however, often generate fewer direct commercial returns.
The OECD reported that developed countries’ adaptation finance reached $33.6 billion in 2023 and $34.7 billion in 2024. Public finance accounted for more than 90 per cent of the tracked adaptation finance in both years, highlighting the continued dependence of adaptation initiatives on government and multilateral funding.
The broader financing gap is considerably larger. The United Nations Environment Programme’s Adaptation Gap Report 2026 estimates that developing countries will require approximately $305 billion annually by 2035 to meet their adaptation needs. This is substantially higher than the current international public adaptation finance flows.
LDCs and island nations receive a limited share
The financing imbalance is particularly significant for Least Developed Countries (LDCs) and Small Island Developing States (SIDS), which face high exposure to extreme weather, rising sea levels and other climate-related risks.
According to the OECD, LDCs received an annual average of $24.5 billion in climate finance in 2023–2024. SIDS received $3.8 billion in each of those years. The figures underline the limited scale of financial support reaching countries with substantial adaptation requirements.
A report published by the United Nations Capital Development Fund ahead of COP31 found that LDCs, which are home to almost 20 per cent of the global population, received only 1.9 per cent of global climate finance in 2024.
The terms on which finance is provided are also important. The UNFCCC’s assessment found that loans accounted for 91 per cent of multilateral development bank climate finance in its 2023–2024 channel-level breakdown. While loans can support large infrastructure projects, debt-based finance may place additional pressure on countries already facing economic constraints.
COP31 must move from targets to delivery
The latest figures reveal a gap between the scale of global climate investment and the resources reaching countries most vulnerable to climate impacts. Although the new $300 billion target represents an increase in the international climate-finance commitment, its effectiveness will depend on how much funding is accessible, predictable and directed towards adaptation.
For developing countries, particularly LDCs and SIDS, increasing the grant component, improving transparency in financial reporting and expanding concessional funding will be essential.
COP31 offers an opportunity to address these concerns as countries begin implementing the new climate-finance framework. The challenge is no longer only to mobilise larger sums, but to ensure that finance reaches communities facing the greatest climate risks.
India Ranks 28th in Global Climate Ranking, Down Five Places
ndia has dropped five places to 28th in the Climate Change Performance Index 2027. Despite reaching 50% non-fossil installed power capacity, coal supplied 71% of its electricity in 2025.
India ranks 28th in the Climate Change Performance Index 2027, falling five places despite expanding its non-fossil electricity capacity. Representational image. Image credit: Bibhukalyan Acharya/ Pexels
India has reached a major milestone in renewable energy capacity, with non-fossil fuel sources accounting for half of its installed electricity capacity in June 2025. Yet coal continued to generate 71% of the country’s electricity that year. This gap between capacity additions and the actual electricity mix is central to India’s performance in the Climate Change Performance Index (CCPI) 2027, where the country has slipped five places to 28th.
The index, published by Germanwatch and the NewClimate Institute, gives India an overall medium rating. Its assessment points to a mixed record: India has made substantial progress in expanding renewable energy and has performed relatively well on climate policy, but its energy use, emissions and renewable energy performance remain areas of concern.
India’s fall in the rankings should not be read as evidence that its renewable energy expansion has stalled. The country reached the 50% non-fossil capacity milestone five years ahead of its earlier 2030 target. However, installed capacity measures the potential to generate electricity, not how much power sources actually supply. The milestone also includes nuclear energy.
Data from Ember’s Global Electricity Review 2026 show that coal accounted for 71% of India’s electricity generation in 2025, against a global average of 33%. India’s coal generation did fall by 2.9% that year, while renewable generation rose sharply. But the continued dominance of coal in the electricity mix shows how much of the country’s power demand remains tied to fossil fuels.
Grid Constraints Slow the Transition
The challenge is becoming visible in the way India’s electricity grid handles solar power. An Ember analysis published in January 2026 estimated that the country curtailed 2.3 terawatt hours (TWh) of solar generation between late May and December 2025. Grid operators had to reduce solar output as an emergency measure to maintain grid security.
The problem is linked partly to the limited flexibility of conventional power plants. Solar generation rises during daylight hours, while electricity demand continues into the evening, when solar output falls. Coal-fired plants that remain online to meet demand can have limited room to reduce their output further. Without sufficient storage and other flexible sources of electricity, the grid cannot always accommodate the full amount of renewable power available.
This creates a practical constraint for India’s energy transition. Adding solar and wind capacity is essential, but the electricity system also needs stronger transmission networks, battery storage and power plants capable of adjusting output to changes in demand and renewable generation. Otherwise, more installed capacity will not translate into an equivalent reduction in coal-fired electricity.
The CCPI’s category rankings reflect the uneven progress. India ranks 13th in climate policy, but 31st in greenhouse gas emissions, 33rd in energy use and 40th in renewable energy. Its renewable energy category receives a low overall rating, despite a high trend indicator. This suggests that recent progress is significant, while the overall level of renewable energy deployment and its contribution to the energy system still have considerable room to improve.
India’s targets: Stronger Implementation
India’s updated climate commitments set out targets for 2035. These include reducing the emissions intensity of its gross domestic product by 47% from 2005 levels, raising the share of non-fossil sources to around 60% of cumulative installed electricity capacity, and creating a carbon sink of 3.5–4 billion tonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent through forest and tree cover.
India’s performance across four climate indicators in the Climate Change Performance Index 2027. The country ranks 28th, down five places from the previous edition. Source: Climate Change Performance Index 2027 report.
The country has also begun implementing its Carbon Credit Trading Scheme, with emissions-intensity targets assigned to 490 industrial entities from January 2026. The effectiveness of the scheme will depend on the ambition of those targets, reliable monitoring and verification, and evidence that participating industries are actually reducing emissions.
The index also draws attention to gaps in energy efficiency. Building energy codes and appliance standards exist, but compliance remains uneven, particularly in informal markets. In transport, urban rail connectivity had expanded to 26 cities by August 2026. However, public transport improvements will also require affordable and reliable bus services, along with safer infrastructure for walking and cycling.
India’s dependence on imported fossil fuels adds an economic and energy-security dimension to the transition. Disruptions to shipping through the Strait of Hormuz have highlighted the risks faced by countries that rely on international supplies of oil and gas. Reducing fossil fuel consumption would help limit exposure to such external shocks, alongside its climate benefits.
Climate Change Performance Index: How India Compares With Other Major Economies
The CCPI leaves its first three positions vacant because no country meets the highest performance standards across all assessed categories. Denmark ranks highest at fourth place, followed by Lithuania and Luxembourg. Denmark has remained the best-performing country in the index for six consecutive years.
The contrast with the United Kingdom is also instructive. The UK, ranked seventh, is the only G20 economy to receive a high overall rating. Its electricity system became coal-free in 2025, according to Ember. Ten G20 members, meanwhile, received very low ratings in the CCPI, underscoring the difficulty major economies face in aligning their energy systems and climate commitments. India’s 28th position places it ahead of several developing economies, including Brazil at 21st, the Philippines at 16th and Nigeria at 17th. But its ranking also shows that early gains in clean-energy capacity do not, on their own, secure a stronger overall climate performance.
India has set a net-zero emissions target for 2070. The CCPI assessment points to the need for clearer, time-bound pathways for reducing the use of coal, oil and gas, with sector-specific milestones and plans to support workers and regions dependent on fossil fuel industries. The immediate test is visible in the electricity system: India must make its growing renewable capacity more usable, while reducing the share of power generated from coal. Until that happens, the country’s clean-energy expansion will continue to coexist with a power mix heavily dependent on fossil fuels.
Global fossil fuel emissions projected to fall in 2026, but India’s emissions to rise 4.4%
Global climate finance reached a record annual average of $1.9 trillion in 2023–2024, but developing countries continue to face significant barriers to accessing adaptation funding. As COP31 begins in Antalya, questions remain over the delivery of the new $300 billion annual climate-finance target and the support available to climate-vulnerable nations.
Industrial smokestacks release emissions into the atmosphere, highlighting the continuing challenge of reducing greenhouse gas emissions. Image credit:Pexels
Global carbon dioxide emissions from fossil fuels are projected to decline marginally in 2026, even as India’s emissions are expected to increase by 4.4%, according to the latest Global Carbon Budget released by the Global Carbon Project on November 10. The findings highlight the uneven pace of the global energy transition, with expanding renewable energy capacity yet to deliver a sustained reduction in fossil fuel emissions.
The 2026 assessment estimates that global fossil fuel CO₂ emissions will reach 38.2 billion tonnes, representing a 0.4% decline compared with 2025. However, the projected reduction is partly attributed to lower oil consumption following the energy shock associated with the Iran conflict, rather than solely to structural changes in energy systems.
India’s fossil fuel emissions are projected to grow by 4.4% in 2026, exceeding the country’s average annual growth rate of 3.5% over the previous decade. India accounts for approximately 8% of global fossil fuel CO₂ emissions. The report notes that the projected increase partly reflects a rebound from relatively low emissions growth in 2025.
The contrasting trends in major economies underline the challenges of reducing emissions while meeting growing energy demand. China’s fossil fuel emissions are projected to decline by 0.9%, while those of the United States and the European Union are expected to fall by 1.3% and 1.5%, respectively.
Renewable energy offsets growing demand
The expansion of renewable energy and electric vehicles is increasingly limiting the growth of global emissions. According to the assessment, solar and wind power, alongside electric vehicles, are now offsetting approximately two-thirds of the additional emissions that would otherwise arise from increasing energy demand.
Emissions avoided through solar and wind power have increased substantially, from 0.28 billion tonnes in 2010 to an estimated 4.6 billion tonnes in 2026. The findings indicate that clean technologies are becoming increasingly important in meeting rising energy requirements without a corresponding increase in fossil fuel consumption.
However, the transition remains insufficient to achieve a sustained decline in global emissions. A research paper published alongside the carbon budget in Nature Climate Change, titled ‘A further acceleration of clean energy is needed for global CO₂ emissions to peak and decline‘, estimates that economic growth and changing energy consumption could add 2.59 billion tonnes of emissions between 2025 and 2028.
Solar power, wind power and electric vehicles could offset approximately 1.64 billion tonnes of this increase under current deployment trends. An accelerated deployment scenario could raise the avoided emissions to around 2 billion tonnes.
The researchers argue that renewable energy expansion must accelerate further to ensure that the growth in clean energy outpaces increasing global energy demand.
Land-use emissions add to the challenge
The projected decline in fossil fuel emissions does not translate into an overall reduction in carbon dioxide emissions. When emissions from land-use changes, including deforestation and forest degradation, are included, global CO₂ emissions are expected to reach 43.3 billion tonnes in 2026, compared with 42.8 billion tonnes in 2025.
View of Taipei’s skyline shrouded in smog.Image credit:Pexels
Emissions from land-use changes are projected to rise to 5.1 billion tonnes this year. The increase is associated with peatland fires and forest degradation in Southeast Asia, amid drier conditions linked to the developing El Niño.
The assessment also highlights the importance of natural carbon sinks. Land and ocean ecosystems absorbed approximately 49% of human-caused carbon emissions over the past decade. However, climate change is increasingly affecting their ability to absorb and store carbon.
Atmospheric CO₂ concentrations are projected to reach 427.7 parts per million in 2026, approximately 54% above pre-industrial levels.
Less than four years of the 1.5°C carbon budget remain
The report estimates that the remaining global carbon budget for limiting warming to 1.5°C is approximately 150 billion tonnes of CO₂. At current emission levels, this amount could be exhausted in less than four years.
The findings reinforce the urgency of accelerating the transition away from fossil fuels while protecting forests and other natural carbon sinks. Although renewable energy and electric mobility are increasingly limiting emissions growth, the researchers caution that their expansion has not yet reached the scale required to reverse the global emissions trajectory.
For India, the projected 4.4% increase highlights the challenge of aligning expanding energy requirements with climate commitments. The findings point to the need for faster renewable energy deployment, improvements in energy efficiency and stronger protection of natural ecosystems.
The 2026 Global Carbon Budget is the 21st annual assessment produced by an international research collaboration involving more than 140 scientists. It provides updated estimates of global carbon emissions, natural carbon sinks and the implications for meeting the goals of the Paris Agreement.