Climate
When the Monsoon Returns, Fear Returns: How Climate Disasters Are Reshaping Mental Health in Himachal Pradesh
In Himachal Pradesh, repeated floods and landslides are reshaping mental health in the mountains — but disaster policy still doesn’t see it.
“As soon as the monsoon arrives, fear spreads across the village. People panic because they have already seen what these rains can do. In 2023 and again in 2025, many families here lost their homes, farmland and orchards to monsoon disasters. The moment it starts raining heavily, everyone fears history will repeat itself.”
Het Ram, a resident of Siraj Valley in Himachal Pradesh’s Mandi district, pauses before adding a detail that has quietly become part of everyday life. Most households in his village now keep their important documents, first-aid kits, clothes, dry food, drinking water, ropes and tarpaulin packed together in one corner of the house, ready to be carried at a moment’s notice if disaster strikes.
“Without our documents, we cannot even claim government compensation,” he says.
Why Himachal Pradesh Floods Continue to Haunt Survivors
Het Ram’s experience is shared by families across many villages in Himachal Pradesh, where the monsoon — once welcomed as a season of abundance — has increasingly become synonymous with fear. With the first spell of July rain comes an unspoken anxiety that settles over entire communities. People’s eyes remain fixed not on the clouds but on the fragile mountain slopes towering above their homes. A spell of intense rainfall is enough to keep families awake through the night. Fluctuating blood pressure, panic attacks, insomnia and chronic stress have gradually become a routine part of life in the state’s vulnerable mountain settlements.
Psychologists describe this condition as anticipatory anxiety — the distress that emerges not after a traumatic event but from the constant fear that it may happen again. A study of disaster survivors in Uttarakhand found that repeated exposure to natural disasters leaves people in a permanent state of hypervigilance: interrupted sleep, startling at the slightest sound, and feeling anxious the moment it begins to rain had become routine for many of those affected.
‘I fear the mountain above my home may collapse’
For 56-year-old Chudamani of Sarpada village in Rampur subdivision, July is no longer just another month — it is a season of dread.
Whenever it rains, sleep deserts her. She spends hours sitting outside her house, her eyes fixed on the hillside looming overhead. A single fear keeps returning: What if the mountain gives way? What if everything is gone within seconds?
The fear has haunted her ever since the devastating flash floods of July 2024, when a swollen Samej Khad swept away both her two-storey house and her vehicle.
“Nowhere feels safe anymore,” says her husband, Chatar Singh. “The moment the rains begin, fear settles into our minds. Every spell of heavy rain makes us wonder which family’s home will be destroyed next.”
The scale of destruction behind the anxiety
According to the Himachal Pradesh State Disaster Management Authority, 2,108 people lost their lives during the monsoon seasons between 2020 and 2025, while property worth thousands of crores of rupees was destroyed.
The 2023 monsoon alone claimed 404 lives, left 38 people missing and forced more than 50,000 people to abandon their homes. A total of 2,546 houses were completely destroyed and another 10,853 suffered partial damage. Overall losses crossed INR 12,000 crore.
On August 14, 2023, a landslide in Shimla city killed 20 people. The following year, a cloudburst in the Samej area of Shimla district triggered flash floods that washed away 32 houses and claimed 36 lives. These recurring disasters across Shimla, Mandi and Kullu districts have left behind more than physical and economic devastation — every monsoon now revives memories of loss, uncertainty and the fear of losing loved ones all over again.
‘Not even a needle found after floods’
Alok Kumar of Sarpada village in Rampur embodies the depth of this trauma.
His ancestral home in Samej village was completely washed away in the 2024 floods. His mother and eight tenants lost their lives in the disaster.
“The flood was so devastating that not even a needle remained from our 21-room house,” he recalls. “I still haven’t recovered from that tragedy. Every time I hear about floods or landslides, the entire scene flashes before my eyes. We live in the mountains, so there is always the fear that another disaster could strike at any time.”
He says disasters have become an annual reality.
“For the last three years, something has happened every monsoon. It has increased stress and anxiety among almost everyone in the village. Even the elderly say they have never witnessed anything like this before.”
Despite struggling emotionally, Alok has never sought professional help. Like many others in disaster-prone regions, he considers such distress an unavoidable part of life in the hills.
What doctors are seeing
Mental health professionals in Himachal Pradesh say the psychological toll of climate disasters is becoming more visible, even though systematic evidence from the state is still lacking.
Dr Dinesh Dutt, a psychiatrist at Indira Gandhi Medical College (IGMC), Shimla, says climate change is directly influencing people’s mental well-being.
“Climate has a direct impact on mental health. After monsoon disasters, many survivors continue to relive the traumatic event. Distressing thoughts, memories and images keep recurring in their minds. Clinically, we recognise these symptoms as anxiety and post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD). We are seeing such cases in hospitals, and our assessments suggest that climate-related events are contributing to these psychological conditions. However, there is still no systematic research that conclusively establishes this link in Himachal Pradesh.”
He adds that the state currently lacks a comprehensive database documenting climate-related mental health cases.
The concerns raised by clinicians are echoed in scientific literature. A review published in Frontiers in Public Health (2025) found that sudden climate-related disasters such as floods, landslides and cyclones frequently lead to PTSD and acute anxiety, while repeated exposure to such events has been associated with depression, hopelessness and, in some cases, suicidal thoughts. Mental health experts believe a similar pattern is gradually emerging in the rural regions of Himachal Pradesh.
Children are carrying the burden too
The psychological impact of recurring disasters is becoming increasingly visible among children.
Mukta, a government schoolteacher in Rohru, says classroom behaviour has changed noticeably since the devastating monsoon of 2023.
“Children have become frightened of the rains. During heavy rainfall, some of them become unusually quiet. Since Rohru is an apple-growing region, many children also worry that their family’s orchards and livelihoods may be destroyed.”
Poonam’s ten-year-old daughter, who lives in Shimla, has also developed an intense fear of the monsoon. Their residential building was declared unsafe after a landslide last year, forcing the family to live with relatives for ten days.
“Since that incident, she has developed a deep sense of insecurity,” Poonam says. “Every time it starts raining, that fear returns.”
For teenagers, the consequences are often less visible but equally profound.
Ashish Dogra, a Class XII student from Ramnagar in Shimla, says the rainy season has transformed childhood routines.
“During the monsoon, no one goes out to play anymore. We stay indoors all day. We talk to friends on the phone, but after a while it becomes boring. Sometimes that isolation makes us irritable and angry.”
Psychologist Neelam Bali says children’s emotional responses are closely linked to the anxiety they observe within their own families.
“When children see their parents constantly worried, they internalise that stress. Most are unable to express their emotions openly, and over time the anxiety begins to show in their behaviour. It eventually affects their studies and overall school performance.”
She emphasises that parents need to encourage open conversations with children.
“Play is one of the most effective ways for children to cope with stress. If they remain cut off from outdoor activities for long periods, they are more likely to experience loneliness, irritability and anger.”
Dr Dutt adds that climate disasters affect children, adults and older people in different ways. “If survivors do not receive timely psychological first aid, the long-term health consequences can be significant.”
When landscapes become a source of grief
Natural disasters alter far more than homes, roads and livelihoods. They also transform people’s emotional relationship with the landscapes they have known all their lives.
When the mountains that once symbolised safety and belonging suddenly become a source of destruction, recovering emotionally is rarely easy.
Researchers describe this experience as solastalgia — the distress people feel when the environment they identify as home is damaged or transformed. Unlike nostalgia, which is a longing for a place left behind, solastalgia emerges while people remain in the very place they call home, watching it deteriorate around them. Over time, this distress can deepen into prolonged grief, anxiety and depression.
Shifting homes in search of safety
Discussions around migration from Himachal Pradesh’s hill districts have traditionally centred on employment, education and infrastructure. But a new driver is quietly emerging: the search for psychological security.
For some families, the fear of living in disaster-prone areas has become so overwhelming that they are abandoning ancestral homes for places they perceive to be safer.
Prabhat Chand, 47, a government school lecturer from Rampur, is one such resident. After the devastating floods in Samej, he decided to leave the area and build a new home nearly 17 kilometres away in Sarpada village.
“Most of the families affected by the disaster have moved elsewhere,” he says. “The flood was so destructive that the place no longer feels fit for habitation.”
Ruchi, who lives in Tutu on the outskirts of Shimla, also shifted to another rented house after repeated monsoon scares. Her previous home stood beside a seasonal stream, and every spell of heavy rainfall made her anxiety worse.
“Whenever I saw news reports of rain-related disasters, I became anxious. Watching the water level in the stream rise only intensified that fear,” she says.
Although she still worries during the monsoon, moving to a different neighbourhood has eased the constant panic she once experienced.
Mental health remains missing from disaster response
Himachal Pradesh has made significant progress in recognising the health risks posed by climate change. The state has adopted the State Action Plan on Climate Change and Human Health (2022–27) and established a Climate Change and Human Health Cell to strengthen public health preparedness.
The plan focuses on physical health, disease surveillance, healthcare infrastructure resilience, early warnings and logistics, but does not address mental health support or psychological care for disaster-affected populations.
While the Climate Change and Human Health Cell provides training to healthcare workers and Accredited Social Health Activists (ASHAs) on mental health and psychological first aid, experts say these efforts have yet to translate into meaningful support on the ground.
Dr Sanjay Pathak, former Director of the Himachal Pradesh Mental Health Authority, believes disaster management continues to prioritise physical rehabilitation over psychological recovery.
“Government responses after disasters understandably focus on relief and rehabilitation,” he says. “But very little attention is paid to what kind of psychological intervention survivors require. Unless mental health becomes an integral part of disaster response, people will continue to live with a persistent sense of insecurity.”
Dr Dutt points to another challenge: the severe shortage of trained mental health professionals.
“The frequency of disasters is increasing much faster than our capacity to provide psychological support. For now, community and family networks are helping people cope. But as those social structures weaken, the need for professional mental health services will become much greater.”
The policy gap extends beyond Himachal Pradesh. An analysis published by the Observer Research Foundation (ORF) notes that disaster management strategies in India remain largely centred on rescue operations, rehabilitation and rebuilding infrastructure, with mental health support yet to be systematically integrated into these frameworks. The analysis also found that psychological disorders following natural disasters are 40 per cent more common than physical injuries — underscoring the need to treat mental health as a core part of disaster preparedness and recovery.
What needs to change?
Both Dr Pathak and Dr Dutt agree that psychosocial care must become a standard part of emergency relief rather than an afterthought. They identify three immediate priorities: training schoolteachers to provide basic psychosocial support to children affected by disasters; strengthening the capacity of ASHA workers and frontline health personnel to identify and respond to psychological distress; and expanding access to counselling and mental health services in disaster-affected communities.
For a Himalayan state facing ever more frequent extreme weather, integrating mental health into disaster management is no longer simply a public health recommendation — it is a necessity.
As climate change continues to reshape the mountains, it is also reshaping the emotional landscape of the people who call them home. The landslides and floods may disappear once the rains recede, but for many survivors, the fear remains — returning every monsoon, long before the first cloudburst.
Raman Kant is a mentee at the Asian College of Journalism’s Climate Change Media Hub, supported by Interlink Academy, Germany.
Climate
Why India Is Studying the Arctic to Understand Its Monsoon
As BRICS countries discuss closer cooperation in ocean and polar science, research is drawing attention to a distant climate connection: changes in Arctic sea ice may influence India’s monsoon. The emerging evidence could have implications for rainfall patterns, water security and climate forecasting.
India’s growing interest in polar science comes as researchers are finding stronger links between changes in the Arctic and the climate systems that influence the country. The issue came into focus this month when India hosted the 8th BRICS Working Group Meeting on Ocean and Polar Science and Technology in Goa, bringing together scientists and officials from eight BRICS countries to discuss cooperation in ocean and polar research. The meeting covered scientific collaboration, technology and the use of research to address environmental challenges.
For India, the discussion has a direct climate relevance. The Arctic lies thousands of kilometres away, yet changes in its sea ice and atmosphere can affect large-scale circulation patterns that reach into Eurasia and interact with the South Asian monsoon.
That connection matters because India’s dependence on the monsoon leaves little room for major shifts in rainfall patterns. Agriculture, reservoirs, groundwater recharge, hydropower and flood risk all depend on when and where rain arrives.
The Arctic–monsoon Link
Scientists have been investigating the relationship for several years. A 2026 study examined Arctic sea-ice extent and Indian summer monsoon rainfall using observations and reanalysis data from 1979 to 2022. It found an inverse relationship between Arctic sea ice and Indian monsoon rainfall, particularly during August and September. The researchers reported that periods of lower Arctic sea ice were associated with stronger rainfall over parts of India and changes in the spatial distribution of monsoon rainfall.
The finding does not mean that Arctic sea-ice loss directly determines India’s rainfall. The monsoon is influenced by several interacting systems, including ENSO, the Indian Ocean Dipole, Indian Ocean temperatures and atmospheric circulation.
The significance of the study lies in identifying the Arctic as one component of that larger system. Earlier research has produced similar evidence. A study published in the International Journal of Climatology examined Arctic sea ice and Indian precipitation between 1979 and 2021. It found significant relationships between Arctic sea-ice variability and precipitation over parts of India, with the strength of the relationship changing with the state of the Arctic Oscillation.
A 2024 study in Remote Sensing of Environment looked at different Arctic regions rather than treating the Arctic as a single system. It found significant relationships between spring sea-ice conditions in regions including the Central Arctic and Barents-Kara sector and Indian summer monsoon rainfall. The researchers linked these relationships to changes in atmospheric circulation across Eurasia.
Research in 2025 reached a similar conclusion about the importance of regional differences. It examined the Atlantic and Pacific sectors of the Arctic separately and found that their relationships with Indian rainfall differ. The study also examined interactions involving the North Atlantic Oscillation and ENSO.
Together, these studies point towards a climate system in which the Arctic can influence Indian rainfall through several atmospheric pathways.
How can Melting Sea Ice Affect Rainfall in India?
The mechanism begins with the loss of sea ice. Ice reflects a large proportion of incoming solar radiation. When ice retreats, darker ocean water is exposed and absorbs more heat. The reduction in sea ice also changes exchanges of heat and moisture between the ocean and atmosphere.
Those changes can alter atmospheric pressure patterns and generate or modify large-scale waves in the atmosphere. Some of these disturbances can propagate towards Eurasia and South Asia. The 2026 study found evidence that changes associated with Arctic sea ice can modify atmospheric circulation over South Asia, affecting the distribution of monsoon rainfall.
The relationship is particularly relevant during the later monsoon season. That is significant because rainfall in August and September contributes substantially to India’s seasonal water availability, while shifts in rainfall during this period can affect crops and reservoir management.
The research, however, does not establish a simple cause-and-effect relationship for every monsoon season. The influence of Arctic conditions depends on the state of other climate systems at the same time.
India’s Climate has Several Moving Parts
The Arctic is one part of a much larger climate network. The Indian Ocean has a direct influence on the monsoon through sea-surface temperatures, ocean heat and moisture transport. ENSO can alter atmospheric circulation across the tropics. The Indian Ocean Dipole can strengthen or weaken rainfall in different parts of India.
The Himalayas add another layer. Changes in snow cover and glaciers affect the timing of water entering major river systems. Research on the Brahmaputra basin has estimated that snowmelt contributes about 6% of annual basin flow, but its contribution rises to roughly 21% in the upper Brahmaputra. Climate projections indicate declining snowmelt even as changes in precipitation could increase total annual water yield.
This distinction matters for water management. A change in the source and timing of river water can affect agriculture and hydropower even when annual river discharge does not fall.
India therefore has several climate systems operating at different scales: the Arctic and its atmospheric influence, the Himalayan cryosphere, the Indian Ocean and the tropical systems that drive the monsoon. Understanding how they interact is becoming increasingly important for forecasting.
Why India Needs Long-term Polar Observations
India established Himadri, its first Arctic research station in Svalbard, in 2008. Indian research in the region now covers atmospheric science, glaciers, sea ice, marine ecosystems and other aspects of the Arctic environment.
The purpose is not limited to documenting polar warming. Long-term observations allow scientists to compare changes in Arctic conditions with atmospheric circulation, Himalayan processes and Indian rainfall. Satellite observations extend this coverage, while climate models can be used to test possible mechanisms.
This kind of research requires continuity. A single expedition cannot establish whether an Arctic change has influenced the Indian monsoon. Researchers need observations collected over decades, together with historical records and data from other parts of the climate system. That is where international scientific cooperation can become useful.
What BRICS Cooperation Could Add
The BRICS meeting in Goa brought ocean and polar science into the same discussion. That is relevant to India because its climate concerns span both ends of the Earth system. The country has interests in Arctic research, Antarctic research, Himalayan cryosphere studies and Indian Ocean observations.
Ocean and polar research also requires expensive infrastructure. Research vessels, autonomous instruments, satellite observations and specialised equipment are difficult for individual institutions to maintain at the scale needed for long-term climate research.
Cooperation can help researchers share observations, technology and expertise. The value of such partnerships, however, will depend on what they produce after the meetings: shared datasets, joint expeditions, sustained observations, modelling capacity and research that improves understanding of regional climate risks.
What This Means for India
The Arctic–monsoon relationship is scientifically significant, but it should not be turned into a prediction that Arctic sea-ice loss will automatically bring more rain to India. The evidence is more complicated. Different parts of the Arctic appear to influence India differently. The relationship changes with atmospheric circulation and interacts with ENSO, the Indian Ocean Dipole and other climate drivers. Some studies identify statistical associations, while others investigate the physical mechanisms that could explain them.
The next challenge is to determine how these interactions behave as the planet continues to warm. For India, that work has a practical purpose. Better understanding of the Arctic’s influence could improve seasonal monsoon prediction and help identify conditions associated with shifts in rainfall. Combined with observations from the Himalayas and Indian Ocean, it could also improve assessments of water availability and extreme rainfall.
The BRICS meeting provides the diplomatic and scientific setting for that work. The harder task begins after the meeting: collecting enough evidence to understand how changes at the top of the planet can alter weather and water far to the south.
Climate
India Doesn’t Need More Climate Awareness. It Needs Climate Agency
India’s climate conversation is shifting from awareness to action. Climate communication researcher Jagadish Thaker explains why growing concern about climate change must translate into agency, skills, employment and meaningful participation in the clean-energy transition.
India may not have a climate-awareness problem. It may have an action and agency problem. That is one of the central questions emerging from the work of Dr. Jagadish Thaker, a Senior Lecturer at the University of Queensland and a Principal Investigator on the Yale Program on Climate Change Communication’s research on public attitudes towards climate change in India.
Thaker studies how people understand climate change, how media and communication shape public opinion, and what turns concern into action. His recent work has provided one of the most detailed pictures yet of how Indians perceive climate change and the country’s clean-energy transition.
The latest Climate Change in the Indian Mind survey, conducted by the Yale Program on Climate Change Communication and CVoter, interviewed 5,427 Indian adults between December 2025 and February 2026. It found that 88% of Indians are worried about global warming and 84% say they have personally experienced its effects. At the same time, 50% say they know little or nothing about global warming, while 84% believe it is happening.
For Thaker, that apparent contradiction is important. People may not always use the language of climate science, but their experiences of heat, floods, changing rainfall and other environmental changes are shaping how they understand the issue.
The findings also point towards a larger challenge: how can climate communication help people move from recognising the problem to participating in solutions?
In this conversation with EdPublica, Thaker discusses what India’s changing climate attitudes reveal about public understanding, why extreme weather can be a powerful entry point for climate communication, and why climate education should connect climate action with jobs, skills, innovation and community participation.
“The challenge now is turning concern into sustained engagement and effective action”
Climate communication has traditionally focused on raising awareness. But your latest survey suggests Indians are already deeply concerned about climate change. What should the next phase of climate communication look like?
The first communication challenge is understanding how much Indians know about the causes and consequences of climate change. Our findings indicate that awareness is low, but a brief explanation is all that is required for Indians to connect their experience with extreme weather events to climate change. So, we must help people make sense of the scientifically accurate causes and consequences, so Indians understand that the problem is not rooted in local issues alone but is also a global issue.
The second communication challenge is to move beyond awareness and focus more on efficacy, agency and solutions. People need credible information about what governments, businesses, communities and households can do, how clean-energy transitions create jobs and improve air quality, and how local actions connect to larger climate goals.
In short, the next generation of climate communication should help people see not only the problem, but also realistic pathways towards solutions and resilience.
The biggest communication story in this survey is not that Indians are unaware of climate change. It is that many Indians who know little about the term ‘global warming’ nevertheless recognise environmental changes around them, report experiencing climate impacts personally, and strongly support climate and energy solutions.
The challenge now is turning concern into sustained engagement and effective action. Extreme weather may be changing how Indians understand climate change
Dr. Jagadish Thaker, Public concern about climate change has risen over the past decade. What do you think has changed?
According to a recent study between 1995 and 2024, Indians faced 430 extreme weather events, including cyclones, floods and severe heat waves, which resulted in around 80,000 deaths and USD 170 billion in economic losses.
The India Meteorological Department has also reported that India recorded its eighth-warmest year on record in 2025. These experiences matter because people often understand climate change through what they experience in their daily lives. Extreme heat, changing rainfall, floods and droughts can make an otherwise abstract global issue much more tangible.
“Climate education should not focus only on risks”
Ninety-five percent of Indians support renewable-energy training for women and youth. How important is climate education in schools and communities?
The support is remarkable. Ninety-five percent favour a national programme prioritising training youth and women for renewable-energy jobs, and 93% support renewable-energy job training more generally.
These findings suggest that climate communication should not focus only on risks. Indians appear highly interested in solutions, skills and opportunities.
Effective climate education can help people understand climate change, but it can also help them see pathways to participate in the transition through employment, innovation and community action. Education is most powerful when it links climate action to everyday benefits and opportunities. Public support may not be the biggest barrier to India’s energy transition
Most Indians support replacing coal with solar and wind. But coal remains central to India’s electricity system. Why is it difficult to bring about behavioural change and effective public policy even when public opinion is this strong?
Public opinion is an important factor shaping energy systems. Infrastructure investments, energy security concerns, employment, institutional capacity and economic considerations all influence policy outcomes.
There are also ongoing challenges around technology upgrades and funding for major changes across the economy and country.
What is striking in our data is how consistently supportive Indians are of the energy transition. These findings suggest that public opinion may be less of a barrier to climate and energy policy than is often assumed.
For communicators, one challenge is helping people understand how long-term energy transitions actually occur and what role citizens can play in them.
Nearly one in three Indians say they have already moved or considered moving because of climate-related disasters. What does this reveal about how climate change is reshaping everyday life?
Twenty-eight percent of Indians report that they have either already moved (11% ) or considered moving (18%) because of weather-related disasters such as extreme heat, droughts, flooding or sea-level rise. Climate change is already influencing decisions about where people live
From a communication perspective, these findings suggest that climate change is not just an environmental issue. It is increasingly affecting decisions about livelihoods, homes and community stability.
“Indians perceive climate change as a present-day reality”
India is among the world’s largest carbon emitters, yet its per-capita emissions remain far below those of most developed countries while it also faces significant climate impacts. How should we understand this imbalance?
Questions about responsibility and equity extend beyond the scope of this public-opinion survey.
What our findings show is that Indians perceive climate change as a present-day reality. Fifty-seven percent say people in India are already being harmed by global warming, 84% say global warming will harm people in India, and 85% say it will harm future generations.
Regardless of broader debates about responsibility, climate change is widely viewed by Indians as a significant and immediate challenge, and there is strong support for the government to pursue ambitious action plans on climate change and the clean-energy transition.
Your survey covers one of the world’s most diverse populations across 12 languages. What important regional differences lie beneath the national averages?
Absolutely. National averages are useful, but they never tell the entire story. India is extraordinarily diverse geographically, culturally, economically and politically. Many climate attitudes vary across regions and populations. India’s national averages hide significant regional differences.
Readers interested in these differences should explore the Yale Climate Opinion Maps for India, which provide state- and district-level estimates of climate beliefs, risk perceptions and policy support.
Those maps reveal substantial geographic variation that national averages can conceal, while also showing that concern about climate change and support for many climate policies are widespread across much of the country.
If this survey were conducted after an even more intense summer, would public concern rise further, or have we already reached a ceiling?
We cannot know without collecting the data. Public opinion often responds to highly visible and personally experienced events. However, concern is already extremely high in this survey. Ninety-two percent say global warming is at least somewhat important to them personally.
One interesting question for future research is how extreme weather events affect not just concern, but support for specific adaptation and mitigation policies.
Climate
Western Himalaya Heating Faster Than East, Study Finds; Snow Loss Could Surge
A new study finds the western Himalaya is warming faster than the central and eastern regions, with major losses in spring snow projected by 2100.
Western Himalaya warming is accelerating faster than in the central and eastern Himalayas, with the region projected to face the greatest snow loss by 2100, a new climate study finds.
A new study combining 120 years of observed temperature records (1901–2020) with eight global climate models finds that the western Himalaya (Ladakh, Jammu & Kashmir and Himachal Pradesh) is heating up more quickly than the central and eastern stretches of the range — a pattern that holds across every season and every emission scenario the researchers tested.
The imbalance shows up in multiple ways: winters are warming faster than springs, nights are warming faster than days, and by the end of the century, the western Himalaya stands to lose far more of its spring snow cover than the rest of the range, with the gap between low- and high-emission futures widening sharply the longer emissions stay high.
Western Himalaya warming is accelerating across seasons
A research study, Vulnerability of the Himalayan region under the climate change, published in the Journal of Earth System Science, led by the Department of Remote Sensing and Geoinformatics, Birla Institute of Technology (BIT), Mesra, Ranchi, with the Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology (IITM), Pune, and Ashoka University, assessed how temperature and snow are changing across three sectors of the Indian Himalayan range, and how far that change could go by 2100.
The researchers drew on two sources of evidence: 120 years of recorded ground-station temperatures across the region, from 1901 to 2020, and eight global climate models that were first validated against that historical record and then projected forward to the year 2100 under five emissions scenarios, ranging from steep near-term cuts to continued high fossil-fuel use. Two seasons were examined: winter, when snow accumulates, and the pre-monsoon spring months, when it melts.
The range is split into three stretches, studied separately: the western Himalaya (Ladakh, Jammu & Kashmir, and Himachal Pradesh), the central Himalaya (largely Uttarakhand), and the eastern Himalaya (Sikkim, Arunachal Pradesh, and the wider North-East). Between them, they hold more than 15,000 glaciers and feed the Indus, Ganges and Brahmaputra, the rivers that roughly 1.5 billion people depend on.
The warming has already reached about 1°C, and it is not evenly spread
Compared with the first three decades of the 1900s, all three stretches of the range had already warmed by close to 1°C in winter by the two decades to 2014: 1.06°C in the western Himalaya, 0.96°C in the central Himalaya and 1.09°C in the east. Springs had warmed by 1.08°C in the west, and 0.83°C in the centre and east. The warming has not arrived at a steady pace. Warmer-than-normal years have become the rule rather than the exception across all three stretches over the past 20–30 years, most of the change has come recently, the study said.
“The Himalaya is often discussed as a single system, but our observations and models both say otherwise. The western Himalaya consistently emerges as the most sensitive stretch — it warms the most and loses the most snow under every pathway we tested. That has direct consequences for the states that sit in it,” said Protyusha Mukhopadhyay, lead author, Birla Institute of Technology (BIT), Mesra.
Under high emissions, western Himalayan winters may warm by more than 7°C
The models show the same west-to-east pattern throughout the century. If emissions stay high, winters by 2081–2100 would be 7.18°C warmer in the western Himalaya, 6.71°C warmer in the central Himalaya and 5.82°C warmer in the east, compared with the early 1900s. Springs warm in the same order: 6.91°C, 6.41°C and 5.16°C.
Himalayan Warming: Key Findings
- 1.06°C — winter warming in the western Himalaya already observed
- 7.18°C — projected winter warming in the western Himalaya by 2081–2100 under high emissions
- 95.9 kg/m² — projected western Himalayan spring snow loss under the highest-emission pathway
- 32 kg/m² — projected spring snow loss even under the lowest-emission pathway by the end of the century
- 1.23°C — rise in western Himalayan winter night-time temperatures
- 1.5 billion — approximate number of people dependent on rivers fed by the Himalayan region
“In the west and centre, winters are warming faster than springs. Less snow on the ground would mean a darker surface, which absorbs more heat, which melts more snow. It matters because winter is the season in which snow is supposed to build up; warmer winters mean less snow banked for the melt months that follow,” said Parthasarathi Mukhopadhyay, corresponding author, Ashoka University.
Nights are warming faster than days
One of the clearest signals in the observational record is that minimum (night-time) temperatures are rising faster than maximum (daytime) temperatures across the western and central Himalaya. In the western Himalaya, winter minimum temperatures rose 1.23°C against 0.87°C for day temperatures; in spring, 1.25°C against 0.91°C. In the central Himalaya the gap is wider still in winter (1.20°C against 0.72°C).
The eastern Himalaya is the exception, where winter maximum temperatures rose more (1.19°C) than minimum (0.99°C). Warmer nights matter because they shorten the hours in which snow and ice can refreeze. That speeds up melting, and changes when the meltwater reaches the rivers below.
“Rising night-time temperatures are the quieter half of this story, and arguably the more consequential one. When the cold nights that let snowpack recover start disappearing, you change the melt cycle itself rather than how much snow falls, but when the water arrives downstream,” said Dr Swagata Payra, co-author, BIT Mesra.
Spring is where the snow is being lost
Across all three stretches of the range, spring sees greater snow loss than winter, and the western Himalaya loses by far the most. The study measures this as the weight of snow sitting on each square metre of ground. Over the western Himalaya, spring snow falls away steadily even on the lowest-emission path: by 24.2 kg per square metre by 2040, 27.4 kg by 2060 and 32 kg by the end of the century. On the highest-emission path, that end-of-century loss reaches 95.9 kg per square metre, enough to point towards an almost complete loss of seasonal snow in some pockets of the region, the authors said.
The central Himalaya loses less, though still a substantial amount: between 17.0 and 34.9 kg per square metre by the end of the century, depending on the emissions path. The eastern Himalaya loses the least, between 5.5 and 11.1 kg. Winter follows the same pattern. Western Himalayan snow loss by the end of the century ranges from 9.5 kg per square metre on the lowest-emission path to 53.2 kg on the highest.
The gap between emission pathways
Western Himalayan winters end the century 2.55°C warmer if emissions fall sharply, or 7.18°C warmer if they do not (a gap of 4.6°C). By 2100, a high-emission trajectory would strip roughly three times more spring snow from the region than a low-emission one, and more than five times more winter snow. The eight models largely agree on the next two to three decades. They diverge much more towards 2100 because how much the region warms by then depends on choices that have not yet been made.
“The models agree on where we are headed over the next two to three decades. What remains open is the second half of the century, and that is determined by emissions rather than by anything intrinsic to the mountains. A low-emission pathway does not stop the warming, but it changes its magnitude by several degrees,” said Mukhopadhyay
The eastern Himalaya warms the least of the three and loses the least snow, and its outlook varies the least across the emission paths. However, the study notes that the east has become a hotspot for glacial lake outburst floods that are sudden, destructive floods released when a lake dammed by glacial debris gives way. “That risk is expected to spread westward in the future, driven by retreating glaciers and the new lakes they leave behind, not by temperature alone,” said Protyusha.
The authors call for region-specific climate services and adaptation policy; enhanced monitoring that combines in-situ networks, satellite products and sustained high-resolution modelling to track glacier and snow dynamics in near real time; strengthened early-warning systems; sustainable water management; community-level resilience programmes; and transboundary cooperation. How water actually moves through these high mountains is still poorly captured by models, and more measurement on the ground is needed before it can be said with confidence how much ice and snow melts each year, and how much of that reaches the rivers below, the authors said.
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