Western Himalaya warming is accelerating faster than in the central and eastern Himalayas, with the region projected to face the greatest snow loss by 2100, a new climate study finds.

A new study combining 120 years of observed temperature records (1901–2020) with eight global climate models finds that the western Himalaya (Ladakh, Jammu & Kashmir and Himachal Pradesh) is heating up more quickly than the central and eastern stretches of the range — a pattern that holds across every season and every emission scenario the researchers tested.

The imbalance shows up in multiple ways: winters are warming faster than springs, nights are warming faster than days, and by the end of the century, the western Himalaya stands to lose far more of its spring snow cover than the rest of the range, with the gap between low- and high-emission futures widening sharply the longer emissions stay high.

Western Himalaya warming is accelerating across seasons

A research study, Vulnerability of the Himalayan region under the climate change, published in the Journal of Earth System Science, led by the Department of Remote Sensing and Geoinformatics, Birla Institute of Technology (BIT), Mesra, Ranchi, with the Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology (IITM), Pune, and Ashoka University, assessed how temperature and snow are changing across three sectors of the Indian Himalayan range, and how far that change could go by 2100.

The researchers drew on two sources of evidence: 120 years of recorded ground-station temperatures across the region, from 1901 to 2020, and eight global climate models that were first validated against that historical record and then projected forward to the year 2100 under five emissions scenarios, ranging from steep near-term cuts to continued high fossil-fuel use. Two seasons were examined: winter, when snow accumulates, and the pre-monsoon spring months, when it melts.

The range is split into three stretches, studied separately: the western Himalaya (Ladakh, Jammu & Kashmir, and Himachal Pradesh), the central Himalaya (largely Uttarakhand), and the eastern Himalaya (Sikkim, Arunachal Pradesh, and the wider North-East). Between them, they hold more than 15,000 glaciers and feed the Indus, Ganges and Brahmaputra, the rivers that roughly 1.5 billion people depend on.

The warming has already reached about 1°C, and it is not evenly spread

Compared with the first three decades of the 1900s, all three stretches of the range had already warmed by close to 1°C in winter by the two decades to 2014: 1.06°C in the western Himalaya, 0.96°C in the central Himalaya and 1.09°C in the east. Springs had warmed by 1.08°C in the west, and 0.83°C in the centre and east. The warming has not arrived at a steady pace. Warmer-than-normal years have become the rule rather than the exception across all three stretches over the past 20–30 years, most of the change has come recently, the study said.

“The Himalaya is often discussed as a single system, but our observations and models both say otherwise. The western Himalaya consistently emerges as the most sensitive stretch — it warms the most and loses the most snow under every pathway we tested. That has direct consequences for the states that sit in it,” said Protyusha Mukhopadhyay, lead author, Birla Institute of Technology (BIT), Mesra.

Under high emissions, western Himalayan winters may warm by more than 7°C

The models show the same west-to-east pattern throughout the century. If emissions stay high, winters by 2081–2100 would be 7.18°C warmer in the western Himalaya, 6.71°C warmer in the central Himalaya and 5.82°C warmer in the east, compared with the early 1900s. Springs warm in the same order: 6.91°C, 6.41°C and 5.16°C.

“In the west and centre, winters are warming faster than springs. Less snow on the ground would mean a darker surface, which absorbs more heat, which melts more snow. It matters because winter is the season in which snow is supposed to build up; warmer winters mean less snow banked for the melt months that follow,” said Parthasarathi Mukhopadhyay, corresponding author, Ashoka University.

Nights are warming faster than days

One of the clearest signals in the observational record is that minimum (night-time) temperatures are rising faster than maximum (daytime) temperatures across the western and central Himalaya. In the western Himalaya, winter minimum temperatures rose 1.23°C against 0.87°C for day temperatures; in spring, 1.25°C against 0.91°C. In the central Himalaya the gap is wider still in winter (1.20°C against 0.72°C).

The eastern Himalaya is the exception, where winter maximum temperatures rose more (1.19°C) than minimum (0.99°C). Warmer nights matter because they shorten the hours in which snow and ice can refreeze. That speeds up melting, and changes when the meltwater reaches the rivers below.

“Rising night-time temperatures are the quieter half of this story, and arguably the more consequential one. When the cold nights that let snowpack recover start disappearing, you change the melt cycle itself rather than how much snow falls, but when the water arrives downstream,” said Dr Swagata Payra, co-author, BIT Mesra.

Spring is where the snow is being lost

Across all three stretches of the range, spring sees greater snow loss than winter, and the western Himalaya loses by far the most. The study measures this as the weight of snow sitting on each square metre of ground. Over the western Himalaya, spring snow falls away steadily even on the lowest-emission path: by 24.2 kg per square metre by 2040, 27.4 kg by 2060 and 32 kg by the end of the century. On the highest-emission path, that end-of-century loss reaches 95.9 kg per square metre, enough to point towards an almost complete loss of seasonal snow in some pockets of the region, the authors said.

The central Himalaya loses less, though still a substantial amount: between 17.0 and 34.9 kg per square metre by the end of the century, depending on the emissions path. The eastern Himalaya loses the least, between 5.5 and 11.1 kg. Winter follows the same pattern. Western Himalayan snow loss by the end of the century ranges from 9.5 kg per square metre on the lowest-emission path to 53.2 kg on the highest.

The gap between emission pathways

Western Himalayan winters end the century 2.55°C warmer if emissions fall sharply, or 7.18°C warmer if they do not (a gap of 4.6°C). By 2100, a high-emission trajectory would strip roughly three times more spring snow from the region than a low-emission one, and more than five times more winter snow. The eight models largely agree on the next two to three decades. They diverge much more towards 2100 because how much the region warms by then depends on choices that have not yet been made.

“The models agree on where we are headed over the next two to three decades. What remains open is the second half of the century, and that is determined by emissions rather than by anything intrinsic to the mountains. A low-emission pathway does not stop the warming, but it changes its magnitude by several degrees,” said Mukhopadhyay

The eastern Himalaya warms the least of the three and loses the least snow, and its outlook varies the least across the emission paths. However, the study notes that the east has become a hotspot for glacial lake outburst floods that are sudden, destructive floods released when a lake dammed by glacial debris gives way. “That risk is expected to spread westward in the future, driven by retreating glaciers and the new lakes they leave behind, not by temperature alone,” said Protyusha.

The authors call for region-specific climate services and adaptation policy; enhanced monitoring that combines in-situ networks, satellite products and sustained high-resolution modelling to track glacier and snow dynamics in near real time; strengthened early-warning systems; sustainable water management; community-level resilience programmes; and transboundary cooperation. How water actually moves through these high mountains is still poorly captured by models, and more measurement on the ground is needed before it can be said with confidence how much ice and snow melts each year, and how much of that reaches the rivers below, the authors said.

A prolonged European drought combined with extreme heat is pushing major rivers to record lows, disrupting shipping and energy production while worsening crop losses and wildfire risks. As dry conditions spread north, Europe’s water, agriculture, ecosystems and public health systems are coming under increasing pressure.

A long period of low rainfall combined with extreme heatwaves has placed half of the European Union and the United Kingdom under drought conditions. A report published on August 12 by the European Commission Joint Research Centre and the European Drought Observatory reveals that nine percent of the region reached a critical alert level by late July.

Satellite data from Copernicus, the Earth monitoring program of the European Union, shows that severely dry soil is now damaging crops and plants across the continent. In its latest assessment, the observatory warned that “the drought has built up since early spring due to lower rainfall and higher than average temperatures, turning into fuel for devastating wildfires.”

European Drought Reaches Across the Continent

The lack of rain has driven four of Europe’s largest rivers—the Rhine, Danube, Loire, and Po—to dangerously low levels. Near Cologne, Germany, the Rhine fell to a fresh record low of 49 centimetres by mid-August, according to the Rhine Waterways and Shipping Authority — nearly 20 centimetres below the previous record of 68 centimetres set earlier in the summer, which had itself broken the prior all-time low recorded in 2018. Because large cargo boats need deeper water to float safely, operators have been forced to carry much lighter loads to avoid getting stuck on the riverbed, and in places river traffic has largely halted. Carrying smaller loads requires more trips, creating major shipping delays for important industrial materials across central Europe.

At the same time, low water levels and rising temperatures are creating a serious energy crisis across the continent. In France, power companies had to cut back nuclear energy production because river water became too warm to safely cool reactors without harming aquatic life. Hydroelectric power generation has also plunged across the Alps, northern Italy, and central-eastern Europe. Copernicus analysts noted that low river flows on the Danube are creating “serious operational challenges” for power plant cooling. In Italy’s Po Valley, the dried-out river basin has triggered a separate disaster: saltwater from the Adriatic Sea has flowed inland into depleted channels, ruining farmland soil and cutting off freshwater supplies for local crops.

Wildfires Burn Over 550,000 Hectares Across Europe

Dry plants and extreme heat have triggered widespread wildfires across the continent. According to August 11 data from the European Forest Fire Information System, 552,437 hectares of land have burned within the European Union since the start of the year, spread across 1,614 individual fires of 30 hectares or larger. Although this total remains below the 667,342 hectares burned by the same date in 2025 — a season that went on to become the worst on record for EU wildfires, with 1,034,552 hectares burned in total — it is significantly higher than the 20-year historical average.

Recent satellite data shows a clear shift: large wildfires are no longer staying just in southern hotspots like Spain and Greece. As dry weather pushes northward, fire risks are expanding into cooler regions, including northwestern France, southern Great Britain, the Alps, and the Balkans. Experts at the Joint Research Centre emphasized that “wildfire risk is no longer confined to southern Europe but is increasingly affecting wider parts of the continent under prolonged hot and dry conditions.”

Declining Harvests and Rising Health Risks

Continued heat and dry soil are dealing a heavy blow to European farmers. According to assessments by the European Joint Research Centre, crop yields across central and eastern Europe have dropped significantly. Production estimates for key spring and summer crops, such as grain maize and sunflowers, have fallen by six to seven percent. Winter crops have also suffered, with yield forecasts declining between one and four percent compared to earlier projections.

High temperatures are having a severe impact on human health as well. Monitoring data from public health agencies and the World Health Organization reveals a sharp surge in heat-related emergency admissions and deaths during extreme temperature episodes. Data compiled from national health agencies — including Germany’s Robert Koch Institute, which alone recorded an estimated 11,900 heat-linked deaths — put the region’s heat-related death toll above 25,000 as of early August, highlighting the severe human cost of this summer’s weather.

Seasonal Outlook and Emergency Response

Weather predictions indicate that dry conditions will continue through early autumn. According to the Copernicus Climate Change Service, drier and warmer weather is expected to persist across central-western Europe and southern Scandinavia through September. Climate experts also warn that a developing El Nino pattern could keep global temperatures higher than normal well into spring 2027. “Water resources, crops, energy systems, river transport, and ecosystems are all under growing pressure,” the report warned, with heatwave risks remaining high through August.

To coordinate emergency aid, the European Union activated its Civil Protection Mechanism. A dedicated fleet of 22 firefighting aircraft, 5 helicopters, and ground teams have been placed on standby across 12 countries. Meanwhile, the Copernicus satellite service has responded to more than 30 emergency requests since June, providing real-time mapping data to help local authorities track active fires and assess land damage on the ground.

Climate and biodiversity policies often focus on forests protected, carbon stored and species conserved. But an increasing body of research points to another factor that can influence these outcomes: who lives in, manages and makes decisions about ecologically important landscapes.

There are an estimated 476 million Indigenous Peoples across 90 countries, representing about 6.2% of the global population. Their territories overlap with many of the world’s remaining ecologically important landscapes, making their role increasingly relevant to climate and biodiversity policy.

The evidence does not support the blanket claim that Indigenous Peoples are inherently better conservationists. It does, however, show that land rights, ecological knowledge and meaningful participation in environmental governance can be important to conservation outcomes.

Indigenous Lands Overlap With Important Ecosystems

A 2018 study published in Nature Sustainability mapped Indigenous lands across 87 countries and politically distinct areas. It estimated that Indigenous Peoples manage or have tenure rights over at least 38 million sq km, more than one-quarter of the world’s terrestrial surface.

Their territories intersect approximately 40% of terrestrial protected areas and ecologically intact landscapes, including boreal and tropical primary forests, savannas and marshes.

The finding does not mean all Indigenous territories are pristine or formally protected. It demonstrates the substantial geographical overlap between Indigenous lands and landscapes that remain important for conservation.

That overlap matters for climate policy as well. Forests, wetlands and other intact ecosystems store carbon while supporting biodiversity and regulating water and other ecological processes.

One-third of Irrecoverable Carbon

The climate significance becomes clearer when carbon is considered.

A 2022 study in Nature Sustainability identified 139.1 gigatonnes of irrecoverable carbon remaining in Earth’s ecosystems, with considerable uncertainty around the estimate. The researchers found that 33.6% of this carbon—46.7 gigatonnes—is within lands managed by Indigenous Peoples and local communities, compared with 23% within protected areas.

“Irrecoverable” carbon refers to ecosystem carbon that, if released, could not be restored by mid-century—the timeframe considered critical for reaching net-zero emissions.

The figure does not mean Indigenous management itself creates these carbon stocks. It shows that a substantial share of carbon that climate policy has strong reason to protect is located within Indigenous and local-community lands.

Knowledge Accumulated Through Generations

Indigenous knowledge adds another dimension. Indigenous and local communities have developed detailed knowledge of species, habitats, seasonal cycles and natural resources through long-term relationships with particular landscapes. Such knowledge can complement scientific monitoring, particularly when environmental changes are observed over long periods.

The important question, however, is not simply whether conservation projects can use this knowledge. It is whether the people who hold it have a meaningful role in decisions affecting their territories.

A 2024 review in One Earth examined this question across conservation research. The researchers reviewed 648 empirical studies and analysed ecological outcomes in a subset of 170 studies. They found that more equitable governance arrangements—where Indigenous Peoples and local communities had equal partnership or primary control—were associated with significantly more positive ecological outcomes.

The study identifies an association, not proof that Indigenous governance automatically produces better results in every ecosystem. Conservation outcomes also depend on local institutions, ecological conditions, economic pressures and enforcement. But the finding challenges a model in which communities are merely consulted after conservation decisions have already been made.

The 30% Target Makes Governance Important

This issue is becoming more relevant as countries work towards the Kunming-Montreal Global Biodiversity Framework’s 30-by-30 target: conserving and effectively managing at least 30% of terrestrial, inland-water, coastal and marine areas by 2030.

The target itself calls for conservation areas to be equitably governed and recognises the rights of Indigenous Peoples and local communities where applicable. That means expanding protected areas cannot be measured only in hectares. How those areas are governed—and who has authority within them—also matters.

Climate Action Can Create New Pressures

The relationship between Indigenous territories and climate policy is not limited to forest conservation. The transition away from fossil fuels requires minerals used in batteries, electricity infrastructure and other technologies. Research published in Nature Sustainability found that more than half of the world’s energy-transition mineral resource base is located on or near the lands of Indigenous and peasant peoples.

This creates a potential contradiction: technologies intended to reduce emissions can generate new pressures on land and communities through mineral extraction.

A credible climate transition therefore has to consider not only the emissions avoided by new technologies, but also where their materials come from and whose territories are affected.

India: Where Forest Rights Meet Conservation

The global evidence has a clear relevance to India, although India’s legal framework generally uses the terms Scheduled Tribes and other traditional forest dwellers rather than the broader international category of Indigenous Peoples. India’s 2011 Census recorded about 104 million Scheduled Tribe people, representing 8.6% of the country’s population.

The Scheduled Tribes and Other Traditional Forest Dwellers (Recognition of Forest Rights) Act, 2006, commonly known as the Forest Rights Act, recognises rights of forest-dwelling Scheduled Tribes and other traditional forest dwellers over forest resources. It also provides for community forest-resource rights, including the right to protect, regenerate, conserve and manage community forest resources. Government data show the continuing scale of implementation.

As of December 31, 2025, the Ministry of Tribal Affairs reported 44,33,940 forest-rights claims had been settled, meaning a decision had been taken. These comprised 42,56,845 individual claims and 1,77,095 community claims. The data cover implementation in 20 states and one Union Territory.

The difference between individual and community claims is significant because community forest rights concern collective relationships with forests and their management. For India, therefore, the conservation question is not simply how much forest can be protected. It is also how communities with established relationships with forests participate in managing them and how their legally recognised rights are implemented.

What the Evidence Tells Us

The research does not justify portraying Indigenous Peoples as universally or inherently sustainable. Their communities, institutions and environmental practices differ widely. The evidence supports a more precise conclusion.

Indigenous Peoples manage or have tenure rights over at least 38 million sq km in the countries covered by the major global mapping study. Their territories intersect about 40% of terrestrial protected areas and ecologically intact landscapes. Indigenous Peoples and local communities manage lands containing 33.6% of the world’s mapped irrecoverable carbon. And a review of 648 conservation studies found that more equitable governance was associated with more positive ecological outcomes.

Together, these findings suggest that Indigenous Peoples should not be viewed simply as beneficiaries of conservation programmes or sources of traditional knowledge. They are already part of the governance of many ecologically important landscapes.

For climate and biodiversity policy, the implication is straightforward: protecting ecosystems can also require protecting the rights, knowledge and decision-making roles of the people who live with them. While that does not replace scientific research or environmental regulation. It expands the evidence and the institutions available to protect nature.