Climate models converge on a familiar disruption—with new uncertainties

A subtle but consequential shift is unfolding across the tropical Pacific. After months of relative calm, ocean surface temperatures are climbing again—an early signal that El Niño may return by mid-2026, according to the World Meteorological Organization.

The agency’s latest seasonal outlook suggests that the climate system is moving decisively away from neutral conditions. By the May–July window, models indicate a strong likelihood of El Niño forming, with further intensification possible as the year progresses.

“Climate models are now strongly aligned,” says Wilfran Moufouma Okia, pointing to growing confidence in forecasts that, just months ago, remained uncertain.

The quiet power of ENSO

At the centre of this shift lies the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO)—a vast, coupled ocean-atmosphere system that acts as one of Earth’s most powerful climate regulators. Its warm phase, El Niño, is defined by elevated sea-surface temperatures in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific.

Though cyclical, ENSO is far from predictable. Events typically emerge every two to seven years, lasting up to a year. Yet each iteration differs in intensity, spatial structure and downstream effects.

This variability is precisely what makes ENSO both scientifically fascinating and societally critical.

El Niño: A world tilted toward warmth

If El Niño does take hold, it will arrive in a climate system already primed for heat. The WMO projects a near-global prevalence of above-average land temperatures in the coming season, with especially strong signals across parts of North America, Europe and northern Africa.

El Niño tends to nudge global temperatures upward by releasing heat stored in the Pacific Ocean into the atmosphere. When layered onto long-term warming driven by greenhouse gases, the effect can be pronounced—as seen in 2024, which set new global temperature records.

Still, scientists are careful not to overstate the connection. Climate change has not been shown to increase the frequency of El Niño events. What it does appear to do is amplify their consequences—intensifying rainfall extremes, droughts and heatwaves in a warmer, more moisture-laden atmosphere.

Rainfall rearranged

El Niño’s influence extends well beyond temperature. It reorganises atmospheric circulation, shifting rainfall belts and storm tracks across continents.

Historically, El Niño years bring:

• Wetter conditions in parts of South America, East Africa and the southern United States
• Drier conditions across Australia, Indonesia and sections of South Asia

At the same time, the Pacific hurricane season often becomes more active, while the Atlantic basin tends to quieten.

Yet these are tendencies, not guarantees. Each event unfolds with its own geographical signature.

The forecasting challenge

Despite improving models, predicting ENSO remains notoriously difficult—particularly during the Northern Hemisphere spring. This period, known as the “spring predictability barrier,” is when forecasts are most prone to error.

“It is a transitional time for the climate system,” Okia explains. “Confidence improves after April, as the signal becomes clearer.”

For now, projections suggest that the developing El Niño could be moderate to strong, though the full trajectory will only become apparent in the months ahead.

Why it matters now

For policymakers, farmers and disaster planners, the implications are immediate. ENSO forecasts inform decisions on crop cycles, water storage, and emergency preparedness months in advance.

But there is a broader scientific significance, too. Each El Niño event offers a natural experiment—an opportunity to observe how a warming world responds to one of its most powerful internal oscillations.

If 2026 does usher in another El Niño, it will not simply be a repeat of past events. It will be a test of how climate variability and climate change now interact in real time.

And increasingly, those two forces are no longer easy to separate.

When the Strait of Hormuz was disrupted in 2026, a return to coal seemed inevitable. Instead, renewable energy filled the gap—revealing a deeper shift in how the world responds to energy crises.

When the Strait of Hormuz was blocked in early 2026, the world braced for an energy crisis. The narrow waterway is one of the most critical routes for global fuel transport, carrying nearly 19% of the world’s liquefied natural gas. As shipments were disrupted, a familiar expectation took hold: countries would fall back on coal.

That assumption was rooted in history. In previous crises, when gas supplies became uncertain or expensive, coal often filled the gap. This time, many expected the same pattern to repeat.

But it didn’t.

According to an analysis by the Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air (CREA), global fossil fuel power generation fell by around 1% in March 2026 compared to the previous year. Gas-fired power dropped more sharply, by 4%, while coal generation remained largely flat.

Hormuz Crisis and Clean Energy Shift

The CREA analysis, which draws on near-real-time electricity data covering major power markets including China, the United States, the European Union, and India, represents around 87% of global coal power and over 60% of gas power. In the context of a global disruption, even a modest decline signals something more structural: the expected “return to coal” did not materialise.

The explanation lies in a shift that has been building quietly over the past decade—the rapid expansion of renewable energy.

In March 2026, increases in solar and wind played a decisive role in offsetting the drop in fossil fuels. Solar generation rose by 14%, while wind increased by 8%, with hydropower also contributing modest gains. Together, these sources absorbed the shortfall without pushing systems back toward coal.

“The record growth in global clean power generation, particularly solar and wind, has helped ease the impact of the latest fossil fuel crisis,” said Lauri Myllyvirta, Lead Analyst at CREA. “The increase in clean electricity offset the fall in gas-fired power generation following the Hormuz blockade, preventing a jump in coal-fired power generation.”

Outside China, coal-fired generation fell by 3.5%, while gas declined by 4%. Major economies—including the United States, India, the European Union, Turkey, and South Africa—recorded reductions in coal-based electricity. This directly challenges the long-standing assumption that fossil fuels serve as the default backup during crises.

The scale of renewable growth helps explain why.

In 2025 alone, the world added roughly 510 gigawatts of solar capacity and 160 gigawatts of wind. These additions are expected to generate about 1,100 terawatt-hours of electricity annually. By comparison, all the natural gas transported through the Strait of Hormuz in 2025 could produce around 590 terawatt-hours—roughly equivalent to France’s total power generation.

In effect, the renewable capacity added in a single year now produces nearly twice the electricity linked to one of the world’s most strategic fossil fuel routes. The implications are structural, not temporary.

Further evidence comes from coal transport. Seaborne coal shipments fell by 3% in March 2026, reaching their lowest levels since 2021. China and India, the world’s largest coal importers, saw a 9% drop in shipments, while countries such as Turkey and Vietnam also recorded declines.

Coal did not step in to fill the gap, in part because it could not. In many markets, coal plants were already operating near their maximum capacity. With coal already heavily utilised—often because it had been cheaper than gas—there was limited room to increase output further.

Gas, by contrast, typically serves as a flexible buffer in power systems. When gas supplies were disrupted, that flexibility was constrained. Renewable energy, rather than coal, filled the resulting gap.

At the same time, rising fossil fuel prices have strengthened the economic case for clean energy, discouraging new investment in coal.

This pattern has precedent. When Russia reduced gas exports to Europe, there were similar fears of a coal resurgence. While coal use rose briefly, the longer-term response was an acceleration of renewable deployment, leading to a sustained decline in emissions. The Hormuz disruption appears to be reinforcing that trajectory rather than reversing it.

At the country level, the trend is largely consistent. The most significant declines in coal power generation were recorded in the United States, India, South Africa, Turkey, Germany, and the Netherlands. In many cases, the expansion of solar power was the primary driver, supported by improvements in hydropower and nuclear generation.

There were exceptions. Japan and South Korea saw increases in coal use due to weaker nuclear output, while parts of coastal China temporarily shifted from gas to coal amid high gas prices. Even so, overall coal generation in China remained below 2024 levels, underscoring the broader direction of change.

The crisis has also triggered policy responses aligned with long-term transition goals. France is accelerating electrification across key sectors. Egypt plans to add 2,500 megawatts of renewable capacity. India has announced annual bids for 50 gigawatts of renewable energy. Indonesia is pursuing a 100-gigawatt solar vision, while Turkey has pledged $80 billion in renewable investments by 2035. Vietnam, meanwhile, is planning to phase out coal-fired plants in new energy projects after 2030.

These moves suggest that the response to disruption is not a return to older systems, but a faster shift toward new ones. The findings from CREA point to a deeper transition already underway—one in which clean energy is no longer supplementary, but central to energy security.

For decades, fossil fuels were seen as the backbone of energy security—reliable, scalable, and indispensable during crises. That assumption is now being tested. Renewable energy is increasingly demonstrating its ability to stabilise supply during periods of disruption.

The idea of a “coal comeback” may have made for compelling headlines, but the data tells a different story. Instead of turning back, the global energy system appears to be moving forward.

The Hormuz crisis may ultimately be remembered not as a moment of regression, but as an inflection point—one that revealed how far the transition to clean energy has already progressed, and how it may accelerate in the years ahead.

A new private university focused on wildlife conservation and veterinary sciences is being positioned as an ambitious attempt to reshape how the world trains the next generation of conservation professionals—backed by one of Asia’s most influential business families.

The institution, Vantara University, has been launched in western India by a wildlife initiative founded by Anant Ambani, part of the Reliance group. Framed as an integrated academic ecosystem, the project reflects a growing trend where private capital is stepping into areas traditionally led by public institutions and global nonprofits.

Vantara officially describes the university as the “world’s first integrated global university” dedicated to wildlife conservation and veterinary sciences. While the scale and integration may be distinctive, similar disciplines are already taught across universities worldwide, often through specialised schools, research centres, and veterinary colleges.

The claim, therefore, rests less on the existence of such education and more on the attempt to consolidate it within a single, purpose-built institutional framework.

A Shift Toward Education-Led Conservation

The launch comes at a time when conservation challenges are becoming increasingly complex. Climate change, habitat fragmentation, and the spread of zoonotic diseases are reshaping ecosystems and exposing the limits of traditional conservation models.

There is a growing recognition that protecting biodiversity will require not just field interventions, but a systemic expansion of expertise—from wildlife veterinarians and epidemiologists to policy specialists and conservation planners.

Vantara University aims to respond to this gap by bringing together disciplines such as wildlife medicine, genetics, behavioural sciences, epidemiology, and conservation policy under one academic structure.

Blending Science, Scale, and Philosophy

The university’s vision combines scientific training with a philosophical framing rooted in compassion and stewardship. Its design draws inspiration from historical centres of learning, while positioning itself as a modern, purpose-led institution.

“The future of conservation will depend on how we prepare minds and institutions to serve life with compassion, knowledge, and skill,” Anant Ambani said in a statement.

“Vantara University is shaped by a deeply personal journey of witnessing animals in distress and recognising the need for greater capability in their care… the university seeks to nurture a new generation committed to protecting every life.”

Global Ambitions, Local Foundations

Although based in India, the project is clearly aimed at a global audience.

The university plans to offer undergraduate, postgraduate, and specialised programmes, supported by research infrastructure and international collaborations. It also emphasises action-oriented learning, linking academic work with real-world conservation practices.

This approach reflects a broader shift in higher education, where institutions are increasingly expected to produce not just knowledge, but deployable expertise.

The Rise of Private Influence in Conservation

The initiative also highlights a larger structural shift: the growing role of private capital in shaping conservation agendas.

Historically, conservation has been driven by governments, multilateral agencies, and non-profit organisations. However, large-scale funding gaps and the urgency of environmental crises are opening the door for philanthropic and corporate actors to play a more prominent role.

This raises both opportunities and questions.

Private initiatives can accelerate innovation and investment, but they also bring concerns around governance, accountability, and long-term alignment with public interest.

Questions of Access and Impact

As with many specialised institutions, accessibility will be a critical test.

While the university has announced scholarships aimed at supporting students from diverse backgrounds, the broader question remains: can such models scale inclusively, particularly for communities most directly affected by environmental change?

The effectiveness of the initiative will also depend on its ability to influence policy, contribute to global research, and produce professionals equipped to address complex ecological challenges.

A Changing Conservation Landscape

The launch of Vantara University signals a deeper transition in how conservation is being imagined.

Increasingly, the field is moving beyond isolated interventions toward integrated systems that connect science, education, and practice. In this context, universities are not just centres of learning—they are becoming critical infrastructure in the fight to preserve biodiversity.

Whether this particular model succeeds will depend on execution, collaboration, and its ability to move beyond vision into measurable impact.

But its emergence underscores a central reality:

The future of conservation may depend as much on classrooms and laboratories as it does on forests and protected areas.