CBAM May Hurt India’s Steel Exports Less Than Feared. Here’s What Mills Can Do
India’s steelmakers face growing pressure from the EU’s CBAM, but cleaner production could help reduce costs and protect exports. A new analysis outlines how mills can adapt by directing lower-emission steel to Europe, improving emissions reporting and investing in cleaner capacity.
Steel bars stacked at a manufacturing facility as Indian steelmakers adapt to the EU’s Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM). Representational image. Image credit: Willians Huerta/Pexels
For India’s steelmakers, the European Union’s Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) is no longer a distant policy concern. The system entered its definitive phase in January 2026, putting the carbon intensity of exported steel firmly on the industry’s balance sheet. The focus is now shifting from the potential impact of CBAM to how Indian steelmakers can adapt to it.
A new analysis by climate think tank Sandbag argues that the impact could be substantially smaller than feared if Indian producers make strategic changes to where and how they produce steel. Its modelling suggests that, under an “expected” scenario, total CBAM costs for India’s steel exports could fall from 762 million Euro to around 79 million Euro as exporters optimise low-emission production. Under a more ambitious scenario involving new low-emission capacity, the modelling puts the sector at a potential 44 million Euro net benefit.
The Impact Is Already Showing Up in Trade
There are early signs of pressure on India’s steel exports to Europe.
India’s iron and steel exports to the EU fell 13% in the four months through April 2026 following the rollout of CBAM, according to Department of Commerce data cited by ICRIER. A June 2026 ICRIER study estimated that India’s steel exports to the EU could eventually fall by 24% because of CBAM.
However, the decline cannot be attributed to CBAM alone. Steel exports are also influenced by global prices, demand, freight costs and trade measures. The significance for Indian mills is therefore not just the possibility of selling fewer tonnes. Higher carbon-related costs could also squeeze margins or make Indian steel less competitive against lower-emission producers.
This is where the Sandbag analysis offers a different perspective. Its modelling suggests that Indian steelmakers can reduce their exposure by changing what they produce, where they sell it and how quickly they lower emissions.
First: Stop Treating Indian Steel as One Block
India’s steel industry is not uniformly high-emission. Different plants and production routes have different carbon intensities. That matters because CBAM does not simply impose the same burden on every tonne of steel. The emissions embedded in production determine the exposure.
Steel sheet being processed in an industrial manufacturing facility, illustrating the production processes behind India’s steel industry. Representational image. Image credit: jarmoluk/Pixabay
Sandbag identifies Indian steel plants whose emission intensity is already low enough to potentially benefit from CBAM. It specifically points to ArcelorMittal’s NS Hazira plant as an example of existing relatively low-carbon capacity that could serve European demand. For the industry, the first step is therefore to know where it stands.
Rather than approaching CBAM as a sector-wide penalty, steelmakers need to identify which plants, production lines and products have the lowest emissions and where those tonnes can earn the greatest value.
Send The Cleaner Tonnes to Europe
Immediate recommendation is strategic rather than technological: allocate lower-emission steel to the European market.
Report finds that Indian companies could reduce their CBAM liability by strategically reallocating low-emission output towards Europe. The same producers could also benefit from higher European steel prices, potentially offsetting the cost of CBAM certificates. That changes the way exporters need to think about their production portfolio.
If a company has several plants with different emissions profiles, sending the same type of steel to every market may no longer make commercial sense. Europe could increasingly become the destination for the cleaner end of the portfolio, while more carbon-intensive production faces greater pressure elsewhere. In effect, carbon intensity becomes another variable in export planning, alongside price, freight and demand.
Use Existing Low-Carbon Capacity Before Building from Scratch
India does not necessarily have to wait for a completely new generation of green-steel plants. Some relatively low-emission capacity already exists. Sandbag argues that this infrastructure can be leveraged to maintain Indian steel’s competitiveness in Europe, provided companies make the necessary operational adjustments.
That means the transition does not begin and end with new technology. Steelmakers can first examine how existing plants can be operated more efficiently, which products can be routed towards Europe and whether current capacity is ready for the reporting and verification requirements associated with CBAM.
For an industry under pressure to keep capital expenditure and production costs under control, that could be a more immediate route to reducing exposure.
Investment in New Low-Emission Capacity
The longer-term strategy is harder — and more expensive. Sandbag’s “ambitious” scenario assumes the deployment of new low-emission production capacity. Its modelling suggests that this could change the economics of CBAM enough to turn a net cost into a projected 44 million Euro net benefit.
This is where CBAM intersects with India’s larger steel decarbonisation challenge.
The industry is expected to expand significantly to meet domestic demand, but much of India’s steelmaking remains tied to coal-intensive production. Moving towards lower-emission technologies therefore requires substantial investment as well as changes in energy sources, raw materials and production processes.
For exporters targeting Europe, however, those investments could increasingly be viewed not simply as compliance costs but as a way of protecting market access.
Get The Carbon Numbers Right
There is another piece of groundwork that cannot be ignored: emissions measurement and reporting. CBAM effectively puts a carbon price on the emissions embedded in imported products. That means steelmakers need to know, and be able to demonstrate, the emissions associated with their production.
The Sandbag report itself flags “readiness for CBAM reporting” among the factors that will determine which existing low-emission facilities are best positioned to benefit. For Indian mills, reducing emissions without being able to credibly quantify them could limit the commercial advantage.
The carbon footprint of steel is therefore becoming part of the product information that exporters need to manage.
The Industry Cannot Rely on Cleaner Steel Alone
There is a catch. The Sandbag modelling does not suggest that CBAM will simply disappear as a problem for Indian steel. Its projected outcomes depend on producers responding appropriately — by optimising production, reallocating cleaner output and investing in low-emission capacity.
That makes the transition uneven. Companies with access to relatively low-emission plants, capital for technological upgrades and the ability to accurately measure emissions could be better placed than smaller or more carbon-intensive producers.
This could create a new fault line within India’s steel industry: not simply between large and small producers, but between those that can demonstrate lower-carbon production and those that cannot.
Europe May Become the Proving Ground
India has strongly opposed CBAM, calling it discriminatory and protectionist and questioning its compatibility with international trade principles. But whatever the broader policy dispute, Indian steelmakers now have to deal with the market reality. Europe is putting a price on carbon-intensive imports. At the same time, India is looking to strengthen its position in international steel markets.
That makes the European market a useful proving ground for India’s transition to cleaner steel. The Sandbag analysis suggests that Indian steelmakers have several levers to pull: identify their lowest-emission capacity, direct those tonnes towards Europe, improve operational efficiency, strengthen emissions reporting and invest in new low-emission production where commercially viable.
The opportunity is not guaranteed. Nor will every steelmaker benefit equally. But the takeaway is that CBAM does not have to be treated simply as a bill Indian-steelmakers must pay. For companies that can clean up production and put the right steel in the right market, it could become a competitive test they are capable of passing.
EP Staff is the editorial team at EdPublica, an independent media organisation focused on science, education, environment and public policy. The team produces evidence-based news, features, explainers and analysis on issues that shape society and everyday life.
CNG, Hybrids and EVs Overtake Petrol in India’s Passenger Vehicle Market
India’s passenger-vehicle market is moving beyond petrol, with CNG, hybrids and EVs together accounting for 41.95% of August sales. The shift shows how cost, convenience and vehicle use are reshaping consumer choices.
busy Indian road reflects the growing diversity of vehicles on the country’s streets as CNG, hybrid and electric vehicles gain ground. Representational image. Image credit: David Iloba/Pexels
India’s car vehicle market has crossed a significant threshold. In August, CNG, hybrid and electric vehicles together accounted for 41.95% of passenger-vehicle retail sales, narrowly overtaking petrol at 40.85%. For years, petrol has been the default choice for Indian car buyers. But now, data shows CNG accounted for 25.28% of passenger-vehicle sales, hybrids for 9.04% and electric vehicles for 7.63%. Together, they made up 41.95%, compared with petrol’s 40.85%.
The gap is only 1.1 percentage points. But the direction of the change is more significant than the margin. Just a year earlier, petrol had an advantage of nearly 11 percentage points over the combined alternative-fuel category. The data, released by the Federation of Automobile Dealers Associations (FADA), comes against the backdrop of a rapidly expanding passenger-vehicle market. Retail sales reached 4,02,398 units in August, up 16.14% from August 2025 and the first time monthly August sales crossed four lakh.
CNG Still Does Most of the Work
The numbers also show that India’s transition away from conventional petrol is not being driven by electric cars alone.
CNG remains by far the largest alternative, accounting for more than a quarter of passenger-vehicle retail sales. Its appeal is relatively straightforward: lower running costs without the range and charging concerns associated with battery-electric vehicles.
Hybrids occupy a different space. They allow buyers to reduce fuel consumption while retaining the convenience of a conventional refuelling network. Their 9.04% share indicates that consumers are increasingly willing to pay for fuel efficiency without making the complete switch to an electric vehicle. EVs accounted for 7.63% of passenger-vehicle retail sales. That remains a minority share, but the broader picture becomes more striking when other vehicle categories are considered.
Two-wheelers are Moving Faster
Electric two-wheelers crossed a new threshold in August. Of the 17,14,610 two-wheelers retailed during the month, 10.68% were electric. It was the first time their share crossed 10% in a non-festival month, compared with 7.66% in August 2025. Overall two-wheeler retail sales grew 19.69% year on year, although they fell 5.70% from July.
The three-wheeler market is even further along. Electric models accounted for 65.30% of three-wheeler retail sales in August. That contrast is important. India’s vehicle transition is not happening at one uniform speed. Where vehicles are driven intensively and operating costs have a direct effect on earnings — particularly in commercial and three-wheeler applications — electric powertrains are already gaining much stronger market share.
Commercial vehicles are moving more gradually. Electric models accounted for 5.18% of commercial-vehicle retail sales in August, up from 2.06% a year earlier. Total commercial-vehicle sales reached 90,769 units, a 14.45% year-on-year increase.
A Record Market, But not Without Warning Signs
Across all categories, Indian automobile dealers retailed 24,23,201 vehicles in August, up 17.51% from a year earlier. Two-wheelers, passenger vehicles, commercial vehicles, tractors and three-wheelers each recorded their highest-ever August retail volumes, according to FADA. But the month-on-month picture was weaker. Total retail sales were 6.48% below July, when the industry had recorded a record month.
The decline does not necessarily signal a reversal in demand. FADA attributed part of it to the seasonal monsoon lull and the timing of the festival calendar, with Ganesh Chaturthi and some Onam-related buying shifting into September. The passenger-vehicle market also faces a less visible problem: stock.
Dealer inventory increased to around 38–40 days, compared with FADA’s recommended 21 days. More than half of passenger-vehicle dealers reported higher inventory than in July. That leaves manufacturers and dealers heading into the festive season with strong demand expectations but also a substantial amount of stock to manage.
The E20 question
The fuel transition is also unfolding amid India’s move towards higher ethanol blending in petrol. FADA says dealers are reporting some consumer hesitation around the E20 transition, petrol containing up to 20% ethanol, with running costs and fuel economy among the concerns cited.
That should not be read as proof that E20 is driving the entire shift. The rise of alternative powertrains has several overlapping explanations: greater model availability, lower running costs, improving EV technology and a wider consumer choice than existed a few years ago. But the timing is notable. Buyers who are uncertain about the long-term economics of petrol vehicles now have more alternatives to choose from.
Charging stations are becoming common in the country, reflecting the growing share of EVs in India’s passenger-vehicle market. Representational image. Image credit: Mike Bird/Pexels
What the August numbers really show
The headline figure is not that petrol cars have suddenly become unpopular. Petrol remains the largest single fuel category in India’s passenger-vehicle market. The more important change is that there is no longer one dominant alternative to petrol. CNG, hybrids and EVs are each attracting different kinds of buyers and together they have become a larger force than petrol.
The shift is even clearer in other segments. Electric vehicles already dominate three-wheelers and have crossed 10% of two-wheeler retail sales. India’s automobile transition, therefore, is unlikely to follow a simple path from petrol to electric cars. It is becoming a more complicated mix of CNG, hybrid, battery-electric and conventional vehicles, shaped by price, running costs, infrastructure and how each vehicle is used.
August’s numbers offer the clearest sign yet that this transition has moved from being a niche trend to a mainstream consumer choice. For the first time, India’s car buyers collectively chose alternatives to petrol more often than petrol itself.
The Giant Steel Gates Guarding the Netherlands from the Sea
The Maeslantkering is the Netherlands’ giant movable flood barrier, protecting Rotterdam and South Holland while keeping one of Europe’s busiest ports open.
The northern section of the Maeslantkering, the Netherlands’ giant movable storm-surge barrier near Rotterdam.. Credit: https://beeldbank.rws.nl, Rijkswaterstaat (Joop van Houdt)
The Maeslantkering uses two enormous movable steel gates to protect Rotterdam and South Holland from extreme storm surges while keeping the river open to ships.
Imagine a wall of water rising from the sea, threatening to flood low lying towns, farmlands, and entire cities. Now picture two massive steel arms, each as long as the Eiffel Tower, floating out from the riverbanks to join together and hold that water back.
This is not a scene from a movie. It is a real piece of infrastructure spanning the Nieuwe Waterweg river channel near Hoek van Holland in the Netherlands. Known as the Maeslantkering, or the Maeslant Barrier, it is the largest movable flood barrier on Earth. For more than three million people living in South Holland, including the port city of Rotterdam, these steel gates are the main defense against extreme ocean storms.
Maeslantkering: Why the Netherlands’ Giant Flood Barrier Matters
Why the Dutch Built a Gate Instead of a Wall The Netherlands has managed water for centuries, as nearly a third of the country sits below sea level. After a devastating North Sea flood in 1953, the Dutch government built a vast network of dams, dikes, and storm surge barriers across the country, known as the Delta Works.
However, the river route leading to Rotterdam created a practical problem. Rotterdam is home to Europe’s largest and busiest seaport. Blocking the river permanently with a fixed dam was impossible because cargo ships need round the clock access. The initial plan was to build higher earthen dikes along the riverbanks. But as engineers examined future sea level projections, they realized standard dikes would have to be enormous. Building them meant demolishing historic neighborhoods and disrupting communities for decades.
The solution was a different approach altogether: a storm surge barrier that stays open during normal weather to keep shipping lanes clear, but swings shut when severe storms approach.
How the Gates Work
The mechanics of the Maeslantkering are straightforward in design, but huge in scale. The barrier relies on two hollow steel gates parked in dry docks on opposite sides of the river.
When a major storm hits, hydraulic engines push the gates out into the waterway, where they float like barges until they meet in the middle. Once aligned, valves open and the gates fill with river water. As they gain weight, they sink onto a concrete bed built into the river floor.
The operation of the Maeslantkering relies heavily on automation. The entire closure process is directed by a specialized computer system called the Decision Support System, known by its Dutch acronym BOS
As the gates lower, water rushes underneath them at high speed. This natural currents sweep away sand and silt so the structures rest flat against the riverbed without getting stuck on sediment. When the storm passes and ocean levels drop, pumps empty the water from inside the gates. The buoyant structures float back up and swing back into their docks, reopening the river to maritime traffic.
Automated Controls with Human Oversight
The operation of the Maeslantkering relies heavily on automation. The entire closure process is directed by a specialized computer system called the Decision Support System, known by its Dutch acronym BOS.
The software constantly monitors weather forecasts, incoming tides, and river flow rates. If calculations show water levels will rise 3 meters above normal in Rotterdam, the system initiates the closure process automatically. Leaving the trigger to software removes the risk of human delay or miscalculation during a sudden storm emergency.
Even with automation running the system, human engineers remain on site. Whenever severe weather threatens the coast, a technical team monitors the operations from a nearby control room, ready to take manual control if a system fault occurs.
Balancing Ships, Farms, and Rising Tides
Closing the barrier stops all ship traffic into Rotterdam, so shutting the gates is never done without cause. The barrier only closes during major storm events, though engineers run a routine test closure every September to keep the machinery and operational teams prepared.
As sea levels change and seasonal river flows shift, the Maeslantkering remains a critical piece of Dutch water management. It demonstrates how civil engineering can function alongside natural waterways, protecting millions of residents while keeping an essential trade route open to the world.
Solar Power Is Bringing More Electricity to Indian Farms. But What About the Water Beneath Them?
India’s solarisation drive is giving farmers more reliable and affordable electricity for irrigation. But as solar pumps expand, a new concern is emerging: could easier access to power accelerate groundwater extraction in regions where aquifers are already under stress? Evidence from Rajasthan and Gujarat suggests the answer depends on how solar irrigation is designed and managed.
Irrigation pump drawing water for a paddy field. As solar-powered irrigation expands across rural India, easier access to pumping could increase pressure on groundwater in water-stressed regions. Representational image. Image credit: Liton Mia/Pexels
For years, electricity has been one of the biggest uncertainties in Indian farming. Farmers dependent on groundwater have often had to work around limited power supply, run diesel pumps or wait for electricity to arrive at odd hours. Solarisation is changing that equation. Through the Centre’s PM-KUSUM scheme, agricultural pumps are being converted to solar power and entire agricultural feeders are being solarised. The aim is to provide farmers with more reliable daytime electricity, reduce diesel use and lower the cost of agricultural power.
The change is significant. By 2025-26, around 25 lakh agricultural pumps had been installed or solarised under PM-KUSUM, while the programme had added 7.67 GW of solar capacity during the year. For a farmer, a solar pump can mean fewer hours spent waiting for electricity and greater control over irrigation. But there is a complication. Much of India’s irrigation already depends on groundwater. If solar power makes pumping cheaper and more reliable, farmers may have fewer reasons to stop pumping.
That creates a difficult question for India’s clean-energy transition: Can giving farmers more electricity to pump water also accelerate the depletion of the water they depend on? The answer is not a simple yes. Evidence from different parts of India shows that solarization can increase ground water extraction in some circumstances, while well-designed systems can also encourage farmers to use less water.
The difference lies in the incentives.
When the Energy Constraint Disappears
India has an enormous agricultural groundwater economy. About two-thirds of the country’s irrigation depends on groundwater, while India has an estimated 23 million agricultural pumps. Around three-quarters of these pumps are electric, according to recent research on solar irrigation.
For decades, electricity availability and the cost of pumping have acted as constraints on groundwater extraction. Solar pumps can weaken those constraints. Once the initial investment is made, the cost of running a solar pump is considerably lower than continuously buying diesel. In areas where electricity is subsidised, solarisation can similarly reduce the financial cost associated with irrigation.
Irrigation water flows into an agricultural field as a farmer works nearby, highlighting rural India’s dependence on groundwater for farming and the growing importance of managing water use as irrigation becomes more energy-efficient. Representational image. Image credit: Tanin Ahmed/Pexels
That can be good news for farmers. It can also encourage them to irrigate more land, grow additional crops or pump water for longer periods. Research from Rajasthan provides some evidence of this effect.
A study of 414 farmers across six districts found that solar-pump adoption increased groundwater consumption by 16–39% in Jaipur and Sikar. At the same time, farmers benefited from lower energy costs and higher farm incomes. The finding is important because it shows that groundwater depletion does not necessarily result from farmers making an environmentally harmful choice. They may simply be responding to a new economic reality. If irrigation becomes cheaper, using more water can make financial sense.
The Groundwater Problem is Already Severe
Solarisation is also arriving at a time when several parts of India are already extracting groundwater faster than their aquifers can sustainably provide it. The 2025 national groundwater assessment estimated India’s annual extractable groundwater resource at 407.75 billion cubic metres. Annual extraction stood at 247.22 billion cubic metres, putting the country’s overall stage of groundwater extraction at 60.63%.
But the national average hides the severity of the problem in several states. In 2025, the stage of groundwater extraction was estimated at: Punjab: (156%), Rajasthan: (147%), Haryana: (137%), Tamil Nadu: (74%), Uttar Pradesh: (70%), Karnataka: (66%) A figure above 100% indicates that annual groundwater extraction exceeds the state’s annual extractable groundwater resource.
At the national level, 730 of 6,762 groundwater assessment units were classified as over-exploited in 2025. This is why the location of a solar pump matters. A pump installed in an area with a healthy aquifer is not equivalent to one installed in a region where groundwater levels are already falling.
Rajasthan Offers a Warning
Rajasthan illustrates the tension particularly clearly. The state had a groundwater extraction stage of 147% in 2025. At the same time, it has become one of India’s major beneficiaries of solar irrigation programmes.
But it would be misleading to directly attribute Rajasthan’s groundwater crisis to solar pumps. Groundwater depletion in the state has deeper roots: intensive agriculture, rainfall variability, water-intensive cropping and decades of groundwater dependence all play a role. The significance of solarisation is different.
It can potentially remove one of the constraints on further extraction. The Rajasthan study found that solar-pump adopters increased groundwater consumption in some districts while also seeing substantial economic gains. In districts that had previously relied heavily on diesel, diesel consumption fell sharply after solar-pump adoption.
This is the paradox at the heart of the solar irrigation story. The technology can simultaneously make farming more sustainable in energy terms and less sustainable in water terms.
Gujarat Shows How Outcome can be Different
There is another side to the story. Research from Gujarat has found that solarisation does not necessarily lead to more groundwater extraction. A 2026 study examined grid-connected solar irrigation pumps in Anand and Botad, two areas with different aquifer conditions. In Anand, farmers using solar pumps actually used 556–608 mm less irrigation water than the comparison group across the two years studied. The reason is crucial. Farmers with grid-connected solar pumps could sell surplus electricity to the grid.
That creates a different economic calculation. Instead of using every available unit of electricity to pump water, a farmer has a financial incentive to conserve electricity—and therefore potentially water—and sell the surplus.
The same study found no significant difference in irrigation water use between solar and non-solar farmers in hard-rock Botad, where water availability itself was a stronger constraint. The lesson is not that solar pumps are either good or bad for groundwater. It is that the policy surrounding the pump determines much of the outcome.
The Missing Link: Energy Policy and Water Policy
India has already acknowledged the groundwater risks associated with solar irrigation. PM-KUSUM guidelines restrict the installation of new standalone solar pumps in groundwater-depleted areas identified as dark zones. In such areas, solarisation of existing electric pumps is subject to conditions including the adoption of micro-irrigation.
But the scale of India’s solarisation means that groundwater considerations cannot remain a safeguard attached to individual schemes. They need to become part of the planning process itself. That means asking three questions before expanding solar irrigation in a region:
How much solar capacity is being installed? How much groundwater is available? How much additional water could that energy make it possible to extract? Those questions are particularly important in states such as Punjab, Rajasthan and Haryana, where groundwater extraction is already above the annual extractable resource.
Solarisation could also be used to change farmers’ incentives rather than simply increase their pumping capacity. Electricity buyback, efficient irrigation, crop diversification and groundwater monitoring could make conserving water financially attractive.
The Transition Below the Ground
India needs more clean electricity in rural areas. Solar power can reduce diesel dependence, improve the reliability of agricultural power and give farmers greater control over irrigation. Those are real gains. But electricity and water are not separate systems on a farm.
The same solar panel that produces clean energy can power a pump drawing hundreds of litres of groundwater from an aquifer. Whether that becomes a problem depends on how much water is available, what crops are being grown, how efficiently water is used and what incentives farmers face.
The evidence from Rajasthan suggests that cheap solar pumping can increase groundwater use. The evidence from Gujarat suggests that a different policy design can encourage farmers to conserve water instead. So the question for India’s solarisation drive is no longer simply how many pumps can be solarised.
It is whether the country can make sure that the electricity transition above the ground does not quietly deepen the water crisis below it. India may have solved part of its rural power problem. The next challenge is making sure the solution does not come at the cost of its aquifers.