The Heat Trap: How Climate Change Is Pushing Extreme Weather Into New Parts of the World
MIT scientists say a hidden feature of the atmosphere is allowing dangerous humid heat to build up in parts of the world that were once considered climatically mild — setting the stage for longer heat waves and more violent storms.
For decades, long spells of suffocating heat followed by explosive thunderstorms were largely confined to the tropics. But that pattern is now spreading into the planet’s midlatitudes, and researchers at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology believe they know why.
In a new study published in Science Advances, MIT scientists have identified atmospheric inversions — layers of warm air sitting over cooler air near the ground — as a critical factor controlling how hot, humid, and storm-prone a region can become. Their findings suggest that parts of the United States and East Asia could face unfamiliar and dangerous combinations of oppressive heat and extreme rainfall as the climate continues to warm.
Inversions are already notorious for trapping air pollution close to the ground. The MIT team now shows they also act like thermal lids, allowing heat and moisture to accumulate near the surface for days at a time. The longer an inversion persists, the more unbearable the humid heat becomes. And when that lid finally breaks, the stored energy can be released violently, fuelling intense thunderstorms and heavy downpours.
“Our analysis shows that the eastern and midwestern regions of U.S. and the eastern Asian regions may be new hotspots for humid heat in the future climate,” said Funing Li, a postdoctoral researcher in MIT’s Department of Earth, Atmospheric and Planetary Sciences, in a media statement.
The mechanism is especially important in midlatitude regions, where inversions are common. In the US, areas east of the Rocky Mountains frequently experience warm air aloft flowing over cooler surface air — a configuration that can linger and intensify under climate change.
“As the climate warms, theoretically the atmosphere will be able to hold more moisture,” said Talia Tamarin-Brodsky, an assistant professor at MIT and co-author of the study, in a media statement. “Which is why new regions in the midlatitudes could experience moist heat waves that will cause stress that they weren’t used to before.”
Why heat doesn’t always break
Under normal conditions, rising surface temperatures trigger convection: warm air rises, cool air sinks, clouds form, and storms develop that can eventually cool things down. But the researchers approached the problem differently, asking what actually limits how much heat and moisture can build up before convection begins.
By analysing the total energy of air near the surface — combining both dry heat and moisture — they found that inversions dramatically raise that limit. When warm air caps cooler air below, surface air must accumulate far more energy before it can rise through the barrier. The stronger and more stable the inversion, the more extreme the heat and humidity must become.
“This increasing inversion has two effects: more severe humid heat waves, and less frequent but more extreme convective storms,” Tamarin-Brodsky said.
A Midwest warning sign
Inversions can form overnight, when the ground cools rapidly, or when cool marine air slides under warmer air inland. But in the central United States, geography plays a key role.
“The Great Plains and the Midwest have had many inversions historically due to the Rocky Mountains,” Li said in a media statement. “The mountains act as an efficient elevated heat source, and westerly winds carry this relatively warm air downstream into the central and midwestern U.S., where it can help create a persistent temperature inversion that caps colder air near the surface.”
As global warming strengthens and stabilises these atmospheric layers, the researchers warn that regions like the Midwest may be pushed toward climate extremes once associated with far warmer parts of the world.
“In a future climate for the Midwest, they may experience both more severe thunderstorms and more extreme humid heat waves,” Tamarin-Brodsky said in a media statement. “Our theory gives an understanding of the limit for humid heat and severe convection for these communities that will be future heat wave and thunderstorm hotspots.”
The study offers climate scientists a new way to assess regional risk — and a stark reminder that climate change is not just intensifying known hazards, but exporting them to places unprepared for their consequences.
EP Staff is the editorial team at EdPublica, an independent media organisation focused on science, education, environment and public policy. The team produces evidence-based news, features, explainers and analysis on issues that shape society and everyday life.
Kashmir’s Traditional Rice Varieties Hold Genetic Clues to Climate Resilience
A new study by SKUAST-Kashmir researchers identifies cold-tolerance genes in traditional rice varieties, highlighting their potential for climate-resilient crop breeding.
Traditional rice cultivation highlights the agricultural heritage that researchers are working to preserve as they investigate genetic resources for climate-resilient crops.Imagecredit:Pexels
For generations, farmers in Kashmir have cultivated traditional varieties of rice adapted to the region’s distinctive growing conditions. A new genomic study has found that these varieties retain genetic characteristics associated with cold tolerance and local adaptation, potentially offering valuable resources for developing climate-resilient crops.
Researchers at the Sher-e-Kashmir University of Agricultural Sciences and Technology of Kashmir (SKUAST-Kashmir), Srinagar, analysed 142 rice germplasm samples to examine the genetic diversity and evolutionary history of rice cultivated in the region. Published in The Plant Genome in 2026, the study identified genetic signatures in traditional varieties that could help researchers develop rice better suited to environmental stress.
The findings are significant as climate change alters growing conditions and increases uncertainty for agricultural production. Preserving traditional crop varieties could give plant breeders access to genetic traits that may have become less common in modern cultivars.
Genes linked to cold tolerance
The study, titled Re-sequencing 142 rice genomes reveals the fine-scale population structure and phylogenetic affinities of landraces of Kashmir Valley: Evidence from domestication and adaptive signatures, used genomic analysis to investigate relationships among traditional landraces, modern varieties and other rice genetic resources.
The researchers found that Kashmir’s traditional varieties carried genetic signatures associated with temperate japonica rice, while many modern varieties showed stronger associations with indica lineages from subtropical India. This distinction points to differences in their genetic histories and adaptation to local growing environments.
Among the important findings was the identification of favourable variants of CTB4a and HAN1, two genes associated with cold tolerance in rice. The researchers also examined genetic variation linked to grain quality, plant development and other agricultural traits.
Traditional varieties, including Mushq Budji, Kamad, Kaw Kreer, Nun Beoul and Zag, displayed distinctive genetic patterns. Their diversity could provide useful material for future crop-improvement programmes.
The findings do not establish that all these varieties are more resilient than modern cultivars under every environmental condition. Instead, they identify genetic resources that warrant further investigation through breeding programmes and field trials.
Earlier research explains the significance
Previous research provides a scientific basis for investigating the cold-tolerance genes identified in Kashmir’s traditional rice varieties.
A 2017 study published in Nature Communications examined CTB4a, a gene associated with cold tolerance during the booting stage of rice development, when reproductive structures form. The researchers found that a favourable variant improved cold tolerance and helped maintain pollen fertility and seed setting under low-temperature conditions.
Crops in a paddy field.Image credit:Pexels
Similarly, a 2019 study published in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences investigated HAN1 and found that natural genetic variation in the gene contributes to chilling tolerance in temperate japonica rice. The findings helped explain how rice adapted to cooler climates.
These studies strengthen the case for investigating CTB4a and HAN1 variants in Kashmir’s rice germplasm. However, the presence of promising genetic variants does not automatically guarantee improved performance in farmers’ fields. Their effects can depend on the crop’s broader genetic background, the timing and intensity of temperature stress, and other environmental conditions.
Conserving agricultural diversity
The Kashmir study also offers insights into the region’s agricultural history. Its genetic analysis suggests links between traditional Kashmir rice varieties and temperate rice lineages associated with Northeast Asia. The researchers propose that these lineages reached the region after approximately 1500 BCE, although this historical reconstruction remains an interpretation of genetic and archaeological evidence.
Beyond their historical significance, traditional rice varieties may preserve traits useful for future agricultural challenges. Modern breeding programmes often prioritise yield and other selected characteristics, but genetic diversity within traditional varieties can provide additional options for addressing environmental stress and maintaining grain quality.
The findings underline the importance of conserving traditional rice germplasm in gene banks and supporting its continued cultivation where feasible. Such conservation helps prevent potentially valuable genetic material from disappearing as farming systems and crop preferences change.
As climate change places increasing pressure on agricultural systems, Kashmir’s traditional rice varieties offer researchers a valuable starting point for investigating crop adaptation. Their genetic diversity connects generations of farming knowledge with modern genomic research, potentially helping plant breeders develop rice varieties suited to changing environmental conditions while preserving the region’s agricultural heritage.
India’s Green Cover Declined by 5.6 Percentage Points in 25 Years as Summer Heat Intensified: Study
A new study links India’s declining green cover to rising summer temperatures, highlighting the importance of vegetation conservation for climate adaptation.
Vegetation helps regulate local temperatures through shade and evapotranspiration, highlighting the role of green cover in climate adaptation. Image credit:Unsplash
India’s green cover declined from approximately 36.95 per cent in 2001 to 31.35 per cent in 2025, while non-green surfaces expanded across the country, according to a new study by Climate Trends. The analysis found that non-green landscapes consistently recorded higher summer temperatures than vegetated areas, highlighting the role of green cover in moderating local heat.
The findings suggest that vegetation loss can contribute to local warming, although the study also identifies broader regional climate change as a factor influencing temperature trends. Protecting and restoring vegetation could help reduce local thermal stress, but it cannot independently offset the effects of global warming.
“Vegetation is not merely an ecological asset; it is an important component of India’s climate-adaptation infrastructure,” said Dr Palak Balyan, Research Lead at Climate Trends.
The study comes amid growing concerns over extreme heat and its implications for public health, livelihoods and infrastructure. The India Meteorological Department reported that 2024 was the country’s warmest year since records began in 1901, with the annual mean temperature 0.65°C above the 1991–2020 average.
Vegetation Loss and the Local Heat Effect
The Climate Trends analysis used land-cover information from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) and ERA5-Land temperature data to assess changes between 2001 and 2025. It examined summer conditions during March, April and May to understand how land-cover transitions corresponded with temperature patterns.
Vegetation helps regulate surface temperatures through shading and evapotranspiration, the process by which plants release water vapour into the atmosphere. Trees reduce the amount of solar radiation reaching the ground, while vegetation and soil moisture influence how energy is absorbed and released. When green landscapes are replaced by built-up areas, exposed ground or sparsely vegetated surfaces, these cooling mechanisms may weaken.
Dr Balyan said the persistent temperature difference between green and non-green landscapes demonstrated the importance of vegetation in regulating local thermal conditions.
“Protecting existing natural vegetation should therefore be treated as an adaptation priority, particularly in regions experiencing simultaneous green-cover loss and rising summer temperatures,” she said.
The findings are consistent with the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s assessment of nature-based cooling measures, which identifies urban trees, vegetation and green infrastructure as potential ways to reduce heat exposure. However, the extent of cooling depends on local climate, vegetation type, water availability and the surrounding built environment.
Regional Differences Require Targeted Action
The study found that green-cover loss was concentrated in parts of western India, the Indo-Gangetic Plain, central India and the peninsula. Localised gains were identified in portions of the northeastern states, the Himalayan foothills and scattered areas of southern and eastern India.
Temperature changes also varied geographically. Warming was particularly evident across northwestern and northern India, while localised cooling occurred in parts of central and southern India. These variations indicate that national averages can obscure differences in local land-use patterns and climate conditions.
The findings have implications for urban planning, particularly in rapidly expanding cities where construction can replace trees, open spaces and other vegetated landscapes. Protecting mature trees, retaining existing green spaces and integrating vegetation into streets and public areas could help reduce heat exposure, particularly in vulnerable neighbourhoods.
However, restoration must be planned around local ecological conditions. Newly planted trees cannot immediately provide the shade offered by mature canopies, and their survival depends on suitable species, soil conditions, water availability and long-term maintenance. Protecting established vegetation is therefore an important complement to new planting initiatives.
Green Cover Cannot Replace Broader Climate Action
The study emphasises that land-cover changes are not the only drivers of summer temperatures. Both green and non-green landscapes experienced warming during the study period, indicating the continuing influence of broader climatic conditions.
Dr S K Dhaka, Professor of Atmospheric Physics at the University of Delhi, cautioned against treating vegetation restoration as a standalone solution.
“Vegetation restoration can reduce local thermal stress, but it should not be viewed as a substitute for broader climate action,” he said.
Temporal variation in green and non-green land cover across India
He added that warming observed even in areas that remained continuously green showed that large-scale climatic forces continued to influence regional temperatures.
“India therefore needs a dual strategy: prevent further loss of established vegetation while implementing scientifically targeted restoration in heat-vulnerable regions, alongside stronger action on water management, urban planning and greenhouse-gas emissions,” Dr Dhaka said.
The distinction is important because increasing vegetation alone cannot eliminate heat risks associated with rising background temperatures. Effective adaptation requires combining nature-based measures with emissions reduction, appropriate urban design and improved water management.
Aarti Khosla, Founder-Director of Climate Trends, said the study highlighted the practical consequences of losing vegetation.
“The study puts a number on something we’ve long argued, that vegetation is not a biodiversity afterthought, but a climate-adaptation infrastructure,” she said.
“Where green cover has disappeared, temperatures have risen with it, and that is a cost India’s communities are already paying for,” Khosla added.
She also pointed to international biodiversity commitments, including the target of restoring 30 per cent of degraded ecosystems by 2030, arguing that the gap between commitments and implementation has consequences for climate resilience.
The study recommends protecting existing vegetation, preventing avoidable green-cover loss and promoting ecological restoration as part of sustainable land management.
Its central message is that green cover should be considered more than an environmental amenity. While vegetation cannot prevent all forms of warming, conserving it can help moderate local temperatures and reduce thermal stress. As India faces increasing heat risks, integrating vegetation protection into climate adaptation and development planning could help build more resilient communities.
Brazil’s Amazon deforestation hits record low. Can the recovery last?
Forest clearing in Brazil’s Amazon fell 41.8% in a year, reaching its lowest level since satellite monitoring began in 1988. Stronger environmental enforcement has helped reverse years of rising forest loss, but agricultural expansion, damage from fires and gaps in land governance continue to threaten the country’s ecosystems.
Sprinklers water the undergrowth among trees in a forest plantation. Representational image. Image credit: Rashed Hossain/ Pexels
For decades, the clearing of Brazil’s Amazon has carried consequences far beyond the land being cut down. The rainforest stores vast amounts of carbon, supports an extraordinary range of wildlife and helps regulate rainfall by releasing moisture into the atmosphere. Its trees, soils and waterways form part of a system that sustains ecosystems and livelihoods across the region. When forest is cleared, that system is disrupted: carbon enters the atmosphere, habitats shrink and the land can become more vulnerable to heat, drought and fire.
Brazil’s latest deforestation figures offer a significant change in that trajectory. Forest loss in the Amazon fell by 41.8% in the year to July 2026, reaching its lowest level since satellite monitoring began in 1988. The country’s National Institute for Space Research (INPE) estimates that 3,335 square kilometres were cleared between August 2025 and July 2026, compared with 5,731 square kilometres in the previous year.
The decline is a major achievement for President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva’s administration, which has pledged to end deforestation by 2030. It also points to the influence of political choices on forest protection. After years in which Amazon forest loss rose sharply, Brazil has restored anti-deforestation programmes and strengthened environmental enforcement.
The progress matters. But the figures also raise a larger question: what does it take to sustain a decline in forest loss when agriculture, land use and political priorities continue to shape the fate of the Amazon?
Brazil’s Amazon: When Forest Loss Became a Political Choice
The Amazon’s recent history shows how strongly deforestation responds to government policy. Brazil had already demonstrated that forest loss could be reduced through coordinated action. In 2004, it launched the Action Plan for the Prevention and Control of Deforestation in the Legal Amazon, known by its Portuguese abbreviation, PPCDAm. The plan combined satellite monitoring and enforcement with measures related to land management and sustainable economic activity. It helped drive a major decline in deforestation during the following years.
Brazil’s Amazon deforestation rate fell to 3,335 sq km in 2025–26, a 71.2% decline from the peak recorded during the Bolsonaro administration.
That progress later faltered. During Jair Bolsonaro’s presidency from 2019 to 2022, annual forest loss rose sharply, exceeding 13,000 square kilometres in 2021. The latest figure is around 71% below that peak, reflecting a substantial reversal of the trend.
The change under Lula began with a shift in the government’s approach. On taking office in January 2023, his administration reinstated PPCDAm and re-established an interministerial commission to coordinate action against deforestation. The renewed plan brought forest protection back into the work of multiple government departments, rather than leaving it solely to environmental agencies.
That distinction matters because illegal forest clearing is not simply a matter of people cutting down trees. It can involve land grabbing, the conversion of forest to pasture or farmland, and the expectation that cleared land will eventually be recognised or used for economic gain. Satellite monitoring can identify changes in forest cover, but stopping them requires agencies that can investigate violations, impose penalties and prevent illegal activity from continuing.
The Lula administration’s renewed emphasis on enforcement and its support for agencies such as Ibama, Brazil’s environmental protection agency, have been central to its strategy. Márcio Astrini, executive secretary of Brazil’s Climate Observatory, described the latest figures as evidence of what political commitment can achieve.
“The figures released today mark a historic achievement. They position Brazil as a global leader in forest protection and show the world that, with political will, it is possible to curb deforestation and greenhouse gas emissions”.
The result is significant, but it should not be attributed to a single intervention. The latest data show that deforestation has fallen during a period of stronger environmental enforcement and renewed policy commitments. They do not, by themselves, establish how much of the decline can be assigned to any one measure.
The Climate Value of Keeping Forests Standing
The consequences of the decline extend beyond Brazil. Forest clearing releases carbon stored in vegetation and soils, adding to greenhouse gas emissions. Preventing that loss helps preserve the Amazon’s role as a major carbon store at a time when countries are under pressure to reduce emissions.
The forest also influences regional rainfall. Trees draw water from the soil and release moisture into the atmosphere, contributing to the movement of water through the region. Large-scale forest loss can weaken this process, with implications for rainfall patterns and the ecosystems and agricultural activities that depend on them. Fragmentation also leaves remaining forest more exposed to surrounding disturbances, including fire.
For wildlife, the damage is direct. Clearing removes habitat and divides continuous forest into smaller patches, making it harder for some species to find food, shelter and breeding areas. Indigenous peoples and other forest-dependent communities also face consequences when clearing damages the landscapes on which their livelihoods and cultural practices depend.
Reducing deforestation helps limit these pressures, but it does not reverse damage already done. Forest that has been cleared cannot be counted as restored simply because the annual rate of new clearing has fallen. Recovery depends on the condition of the land, the extent of degradation and whether natural regeneration or active restoration is possible.
Cristiane Mazzetti, Greenpeace Brazil’s Zero Deforestation Coordinator, said the latest milestone reflected sustained investment in enforcement and the continuation of environmental policies. She also warned that the gains could be vulnerable to a change in political direction.
Her concern points to a central issue for Brazil: maintaining the decline will require consistent enforcement and long-term policy support, particularly when political leadership changes.
The Cerrado Presents a Different Challenge
The Amazon is not the only Brazilian ecosystem under pressure. Deforestation in the Cerrado, a vast tropical savannah that is also a major agricultural region, fell by 23.8% to about 5,517 square kilometres in the year to July 2026. This was the lowest level recorded since monitoring began in 2001.
The reduction is encouraging, but the Cerrado’s land-use pressures complicate the task of protecting it. Much of the clearing takes place on private properties under legally authorised land-use changes. Enforcement aimed at illegal deforestation cannot, on its own, prevent all vegetation loss where land conversion is permitted under existing rules.
This creates a broader policy challenge. Forest protection depends on detecting and penalising illegal clearing, but it also requires decisions about how much native vegetation can be converted, where agricultural expansion should take place and how landowners can earn a living while retaining natural ecosystems. The distinction between the Amazon and the Cerrado matters because the same enforcement approach will not address every cause of vegetation loss.
Record Low is Not an Endpoint
The latest Amazon estimate is preliminary and will be subject to final confirmation by INPE next year. Even so, the direction of change is clear: the area cleared fell substantially over the past year, reaching the lowest annual figure in the satellite record that began in 1988.
Brazil has committed to ending deforestation by 2030. Reaching that goal will require the country to sustain the present decline, tackle the incentives that make forest clearing profitable and protect the agencies responsible for enforcing environmental law. It will also require attention to ecosystems such as the Cerrado, where legal land conversion poses challenges beyond the reach of enforcement alone.
The latest figures show what can happen when forest protection becomes a government priority. Whether Brazil can maintain that progress will depend on the policies that follow—and on whether the country continues to treat its natural ecosystems as assets worth protecting over the long term.