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Brazil’s Amazon deforestation hits record low. Can the recovery last?

Forest clearing in Brazil’s Amazon fell 41.8% in a year, reaching its lowest level since satellite monitoring began in 1988. Stronger environmental enforcement has helped reverse years of rising forest loss, but agricultural expansion, damage from fires and gaps in land governance continue to threaten the country’s ecosystems.

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Trees and undergrowth in a forest plantation with sprinklers watering the vegetation.
Sprinklers water the undergrowth among trees in a forest plantation. Representational image. Image credit: Rashed Hossain/ Pexels

For decades, the clearing of Brazil’s Amazon has carried consequences far beyond the land being cut down. The rainforest stores vast amounts of carbon, supports an extraordinary range of wildlife and helps regulate rainfall by releasing moisture into the atmosphere. Its trees, soils and waterways form part of a system that sustains ecosystems and livelihoods across the region. When forest is cleared, that system is disrupted: carbon enters the atmosphere, habitats shrink and the land can become more vulnerable to heat, drought and fire.

Brazil’s latest deforestation figures offer a significant change in that trajectory. Forest loss in the Amazon fell by 41.8% in the year to July 2026, reaching its lowest level since satellite monitoring began in 1988. The country’s National Institute for Space Research (INPE) estimates that 3,335 square kilometres were cleared between August 2025 and July 2026, compared with 5,731 square kilometres in the previous year.

The decline is a major achievement for President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva’s administration, which has pledged to end deforestation by 2030. It also points to the influence of political choices on forest protection. After years in which Amazon forest loss rose sharply, Brazil has restored anti-deforestation programmes and strengthened environmental enforcement.

The progress matters. But the figures also raise a larger question: what does it take to sustain a decline in forest loss when agriculture, land use and political priorities continue to shape the fate of the Amazon?

Brazil’s Amazon: When Forest Loss Became a Political Choice

The Amazon’s recent history shows how strongly deforestation responds to government policy. Brazil had already demonstrated that forest loss could be reduced through coordinated action. In 2004, it launched the Action Plan for the Prevention and Control of Deforestation in the Legal Amazon, known by its Portuguese abbreviation, PPCDAm. The plan combined satellite monitoring and enforcement with measures related to land management and sustainable economic activity. It helped drive a major decline in deforestation during the following years.

Bar chart showing Brazil’s annual Amazon deforestation rates from 1988 to 2025, highlighting a 71.2% decline over four years.
Brazil’s Amazon deforestation rate fell to 3,335 sq km in 2025–26, a 71.2% decline from the peak recorded during the Bolsonaro administration.

That progress later faltered. During Jair Bolsonaro’s presidency from 2019 to 2022, annual forest loss rose sharply, exceeding 13,000 square kilometres in 2021. The latest figure is around 71% below that peak, reflecting a substantial reversal of the trend.

The change under Lula began with a shift in the government’s approach. On taking office in January 2023, his administration reinstated PPCDAm and re-established an interministerial commission to coordinate action against deforestation. The renewed plan brought forest protection back into the work of multiple government departments, rather than leaving it solely to environmental agencies.

That distinction matters because illegal forest clearing is not simply a matter of people cutting down trees. It can involve land grabbing, the conversion of forest to pasture or farmland, and the expectation that cleared land will eventually be recognised or used for economic gain. Satellite monitoring can identify changes in forest cover, but stopping them requires agencies that can investigate violations, impose penalties and prevent illegal activity from continuing.

The Lula administration’s renewed emphasis on enforcement and its support for agencies such as Ibama, Brazil’s environmental protection agency, have been central to its strategy. Márcio Astrini, executive secretary of Brazil’s Climate Observatory, described the latest figures as evidence of what political commitment can achieve.

“The figures released today mark a historic achievement. They position Brazil as a global leader in forest protection and show the world that, with political will, it is possible to curb deforestation and greenhouse gas emissions”.

The result is significant, but it should not be attributed to a single intervention. The latest data show that deforestation has fallen during a period of stronger environmental enforcement and renewed policy commitments. They do not, by themselves, establish how much of the decline can be assigned to any one measure.

The Climate Value of Keeping Forests Standing

The consequences of the decline extend beyond Brazil. Forest clearing releases carbon stored in vegetation and soils, adding to greenhouse gas emissions. Preventing that loss helps preserve the Amazon’s role as a major carbon store at a time when countries are under pressure to reduce emissions.

The forest also influences regional rainfall. Trees draw water from the soil and release moisture into the atmosphere, contributing to the movement of water through the region. Large-scale forest loss can weaken this process, with implications for rainfall patterns and the ecosystems and agricultural activities that depend on them. Fragmentation also leaves remaining forest more exposed to surrounding disturbances, including fire.

For wildlife, the damage is direct. Clearing removes habitat and divides continuous forest into smaller patches, making it harder for some species to find food, shelter and breeding areas. Indigenous peoples and other forest-dependent communities also face consequences when clearing damages the landscapes on which their livelihoods and cultural practices depend.

Reducing deforestation helps limit these pressures, but it does not reverse damage already done. Forest that has been cleared cannot be counted as restored simply because the annual rate of new clearing has fallen. Recovery depends on the condition of the land, the extent of degradation and whether natural regeneration or active restoration is possible.

Cristiane Mazzetti, Greenpeace Brazil’s Zero Deforestation Coordinator, said the latest milestone reflected sustained investment in enforcement and the continuation of environmental policies. She also warned that the gains could be vulnerable to a change in political direction.

Her concern points to a central issue for Brazil: maintaining the decline will require consistent enforcement and long-term policy support, particularly when political leadership changes.

The Cerrado Presents a Different Challenge

The Amazon is not the only Brazilian ecosystem under pressure. Deforestation in the Cerrado, a vast tropical savannah that is also a major agricultural region, fell by 23.8% to about 5,517 square kilometres in the year to July 2026. This was the lowest level recorded since monitoring began in 2001.

The reduction is encouraging, but the Cerrado’s land-use pressures complicate the task of protecting it. Much of the clearing takes place on private properties under legally authorised land-use changes. Enforcement aimed at illegal deforestation cannot, on its own, prevent all vegetation loss where land conversion is permitted under existing rules.

This creates a broader policy challenge. Forest protection depends on detecting and penalising illegal clearing, but it also requires decisions about how much native vegetation can be converted, where agricultural expansion should take place and how landowners can earn a living while retaining natural ecosystems. The distinction between the Amazon and the Cerrado matters because the same enforcement approach will not address every cause of vegetation loss.

Record Low is Not an Endpoint

The latest Amazon estimate is preliminary and will be subject to final confirmation by INPE next year. Even so, the direction of change is clear: the area cleared fell substantially over the past year, reaching the lowest annual figure in the satellite record that began in 1988.

Brazil has committed to ending deforestation by 2030. Reaching that goal will require the country to sustain the present decline, tackle the incentives that make forest clearing profitable and protect the agencies responsible for enforcing environmental law. It will also require attention to ecosystems such as the Cerrado, where legal land conversion poses challenges beyond the reach of enforcement alone.

The latest figures show what can happen when forest protection becomes a government priority. Whether Brazil can maintain that progress will depend on the policies that follow—and on whether the country continues to treat its natural ecosystems as assets worth protecting over the long term.

EP Staff is the editorial team at EdPublica, an independent media organisation focused on science, education, environment and public policy. The team produces evidence-based news, features, explainers and analysis on issues that shape society and everyday life.

Climate & Environment

Global Ecosystem Restoration Progress Falls Short of 2030 Targets, UN Report Warns

Jishnu P

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Aerial view of a winding river flowing through dense green vegetation and a restored-looking natural landscape.
An aerial photograph showing a river winding through lush green vegetation, with patches of open land and dense tree cover along its banks. The image illustrates the ecological value of freshwater ecosystems and the role of landscape conservation and restoration in protecting biodiversity.

Ecosystem restoration efforts are expanding across the world, but progress remains insufficient to meet global biodiversity targets for 2030, according to a new report released by the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO), the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) and the Secretariat of the Convention on Biological Diversity (SCBD).

The report, Restoration Progress Report: Nature’s Comeback – Scaling Ecosystem Restoration for People and Planet, documents approximately 252 million hectares of terrestrial, freshwater, marine and coastal ecosystems under restoration across 149 countries in 2026. Despite this progress, the report warns that implementation must triple to achieve the global commitment to restore 30 per cent of degraded ecosystems by 2030.

Countries have collectively committed to restoring approximately one billion hectares through national plans, international agreements and regional initiatives. However, the documented restoration area represents only about a quarter of these commitments, highlighting the gap between political ambition and action on the ground.

The assessment comes as the United Nations Decade on Ecosystem Restoration (2021–2030) enters its second half. It examines restoration progress across different ecosystems, the financial resources required and the measures needed to accelerate recovery.

The report identifies land-use change, agricultural expansion, deforestation, overexploitation of natural resources, pollution and climate change as major drivers of ecosystem degradation. These pressures frequently interact, making recovery more difficult and expensive.

More than 1.56 billion hectares of land, representing over 15 per cent of the global land surface, are estimated to be degraded. Between 2015 and 2019, at least 100 million hectares of previously healthy and productive land were degraded annually. Agricultural lands account for more than 60 per cent of global land degradation, with an estimated 480 million hectares of cropland and 560 million hectares of pastureland affected.

Freshwater and marine ecosystems lag behind

Restoration progress varies considerably across ecosystem types. Terrestrial ecosystems account for the largest share of documented restoration, with approximately 232 million hectares under restoration. However, this still represents only about half of the 469 million hectares estimated to be required to meet the 2030 restoration target for terrestrial ecosystems.

Freshwater ecosystems face a substantially larger implementation gap. Only around 11 million hectares are documented as being under restoration, representing approximately 4.5 per cent of the estimated 244 million hectares required to meet the target.

Marine and coastal ecosystems have approximately 5.7 million hectares under restoration, equivalent to around 23 per cent of their estimated 25 million-hectare target.

The report notes that freshwater and marine ecosystems are among the most rapidly degrading environments, despite their importance in supporting biodiversity, food security and livelihoods. Incomplete monitoring and inconsistent national reporting also make it difficult to establish the full extent of restoration activities in these ecosystems.

Funding gap threatens restoration ambitions

Financing remains another major obstacle. Global restoration investments reached approximately $64 billion in 2022, but annual funding needs to increase to $296 billion by 2030 and $448 billion by 2050 to meet restoration requirements.

The report calls for greater public investment alongside private and blended financing mechanisms. It also stresses the need to redirect financial flows and subsidies that encourage unsustainable resource use and contribute to environmental degradation.

Beyond ecological benefits, restoration could generate significant employment opportunities. The report estimates that more than one million green jobs have been created through the World Restoration Flagships, while ecosystem restoration has the potential to generate over 32 million additional jobs globally by 2030.

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Vibrant green moss and plants beside a gently flowing stream in a natural setting.Image credit:Pexels

It also highlights the potential of restoration to address climate change and biodiversity loss. Research cited in the assessment indicates that restoring just 15 per cent of global priority areas could capture and store carbon equivalent to 30 per cent of the total increase in atmospheric carbon dioxide since the Industrial Revolution, while helping avoid 60 per cent of species extinctions.

The report emphasises that successful restoration requires more than increasing the area of land brought under recovery. It calls for greater participation of Indigenous Peoples and local communities, recognition of land rights, stronger monitoring systems and restoration strategies that address entire landscapes and ecosystems.

As the 2030 deadline approaches, the assessment identifies three priorities for accelerating progress: building a broader global movement for restoration, strengthening political commitment and developing the technical capacity needed to implement and monitor restoration programmes.

It concludes that restoration targets must translate into sustained ecological recovery rather than remain numerical commitments. Preventing further degradation and ensuring that restored ecosystems continue to recover will be essential to securing long-term benefits for biodiversity, climate resilience and human well-being.

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Greener Forests, Weaker Carbon Sinks? Study Finds Declining Productivity in Northeast India

A 24-year satellite-based study finds that Northeast India’s forests are experiencing declining carbon productivity despite relatively stable canopy cover, highlighting how rising atmospheric dryness could weaken their capacity to absorb and retain carbon.

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Dense green forest canopy with sunlight filtering through the leaves of tall trees.
A dense forest canopy illustrating the vegetation cover and ecological richness of tropical forest ecosystems.Image credit:Pexels

Forests in Northeast India are showing signs of a weakening capacity to accumulate carbon despite maintaining relatively stable canopy cover, according to a study published in Ecological Indicators in October 2026. The research suggests that increasing vegetation greenness does not necessarily indicate stronger carbon sinks, highlighting the need to assess forest health beyond satellite measurements of green cover.

Titled Are Greener Forests Stronger Carbon Sinks? Rising Vapour Pressure Deficit Instigates Greening-Productivity Decoupling in a Tropical Biodiversity Hotspot in India, the study examined forest carbon dynamics across Northeast India using 24 years of satellite-derived data from 2001 to 2024.

Researchers analysed three indicators: Leaf Area Index (LAI), Gross Primary Productivity (GPP) and Net Primary Productivity (NPP). These measurements helped assess changes in forest canopy structure, photosynthetic activity and the amount of carbon retained in plant biomass after accounting for plant respiration.

The analysis found that while canopy structure remained relatively stable and gross primary productivity increased modestly by 1.76 grams of carbon per square metre annually, net primary productivity declined by 0.83 grams of carbon per square metre annually across much of the region.

The researchers identified a divergence between canopy greenness and carbon productivity across approximately 40% of forested areas. A separate divergence between photosynthetic activity and net productivity was observed across around 30% of the region.

These findings indicate that forests can maintain their green appearance without achieving corresponding gains in carbon accumulation.

Atmospheric dryness emerges as a major factor

The study identified rising Vapour Pressure Deficit (VPD) as a primary driver of declining forest productivity. VPD measures the difference between the amount of moisture the atmosphere can hold and the moisture it actually contains. Higher VPD indicates greater atmospheric demand for water, increasing stress on vegetation.

Under such conditions, plants may close their stomata, the small pores on their leaves, to reduce water loss. This also restricts the intake of carbon dioxide required for photosynthesis, potentially reducing the amount of carbon absorbed by vegetation.

The researchers also identified a major shift in forest carbon functioning beginning around 2012. Their analysis suggests that the relationship between canopy structure, photosynthesis and net carbon accumulation has weakened over time.

The findings are particularly significant for Northeast India, which the study identifies as a climatically sensitive biodiversity hotspot containing approximately one-third of India’s forest carbon.

Earlier research points to similar concerns

The findings build on earlier research published in Scientific Reports in December 2023, which examined vegetation productivity across India between 2001 and 2019.

That study found that India’s Leaf Area Index increased by 6.75% in consistently forested areas, while Net Primary Productivity declined by 6.19%. Northeast India, the Western Ghats and parts of Peninsular India emerged as important regions experiencing declining productivity.

The 2023 research associated these changes with rising temperatures, which can reduce photosynthesis and increase plant respiration beyond certain temperature thresholds.

Another study examining a semi-deciduous forest in Kaziranga, published in Agricultural and Forest Meteorology in 2022, demonstrated how carbon exchange varies with seasonal and climatic conditions. It found that the forest functioned as a carbon sink during the pre-monsoon season but as a carbon source during winter in the observed study period.

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Image of a dense forest alongside a flowing river.Image credit:Pexels

Together, these studies highlight the importance of examining forest productivity, atmospheric conditions and seasonal carbon exchange rather than relying solely on changes in green cover.

The latest research does not suggest that Northeast India’s forests are structurally collapsing. Instead, it points to a less visible change in their ecological functioning, with implications for forest carbon accounting and climate-resilient forest management.

The findings underline the need for monitoring systems that combine satellite observations with measurements of atmospheric stress and carbon productivity to better understand how tropical forests respond to a warming climate.

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252 Million Hectares Under Restoration Across 149 Countries, but UN Warns of 2030 Target Gap

A UN report finds that 252 million hectares across 149 countries are under ecosystem restoration. However, increased investment and accelerated action are needed to meet global restoration targets by 2030.

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River flowing through a forested mountain landscape with evergreen trees and snow-covered peaks.
Healthy mountain forests and river ecosystems play an important role in maintaining biodiversity and ecological balance.Image credit:Pexels

Global efforts to restore degraded ecosystems have reached 252 million hectares across 149 countries, generating more than one million green jobs. However, a new United Nations assessment warns that restoration efforts remain insufficient to meet international biodiversity targets by 2030, calling for a more than fourfold increase in annual investment.

The findings are presented in the Restoration Progress Report: Nature’s Comeback – Scaling Ecosystem Restoration for People and Planet, released on October 29, 2026, by the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP), the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) and the Secretariat of the Convention on Biological Diversity (CBD).

The report provides the first comprehensive global assessment of progress towards commitments to restore approximately one billion hectares of degraded ecosystems. These commitments are linked to the UN Decade on Ecosystem Restoration (2021–2030) and the Kunming-Montreal Global Biodiversity Framework, which calls for at least 30 per cent of degraded terrestrial, freshwater, marine and coastal ecosystems to be under effective restoration by 2030.

According to the assessment, the 252 million hectares currently documented under restoration represent the largest recorded global restoration effort. However, this accounts for only 34 per cent of the indicative global benchmark associated with the 2030 target.

Freshwater and marine ecosystems lag behind

The report identifies considerable differences in restoration progress across regions and ecosystem types. Asia accounts for the largest share of documented restoration, with 192.2 million hectares, followed by Africa with 36.3 million hectares and Europe with 9.1 million hectares. North and Central America account for 5.8 million hectares, South America 5.4 million hectares and Oceania 3.2 million hectares.

However, the report cautions that these figures should not be interpreted as a ranking of restoration performance, as they also reflect differences in regional land area and monitoring and reporting capacities.

Restoration of terrestrial ecosystems has reached nearly half of the global 2030 target. China reports the largest terrestrial restoration area, with 127.4 million hectares, while substantial restoration activities have also been documented in Mongolia and Kazakhstan.

Progress remains considerably slower in freshwater, marine and coastal ecosystems, despite these environments experiencing rapid degradation.

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ecosystem

A river along the side of a dense forest. Image credit: Pexels

The assessment documents 11 million hectares of freshwater ecosystems under restoration across 62 countries and 5.7 million hectares of marine and coastal ecosystems across 46 countries. The report also notes that limited monitoring and reporting may mean that actual restoration activities in these ecosystems are higher than the documented figures.

Meanwhile, the share of countries reporting implemented wetland restoration or rehabilitation programmes has increased from 8 per cent in 2022 to 54 per cent.

Restoration financing needs to increase fourfold

Insufficient investment remains a major obstacle to achieving global restoration commitments. The report estimates that annual restoration financing must increase from US$64 billion to US$296 billion by 2030, representing more than a fourfold rise.

Agroforestry requires the largest estimated annual investment, at US$87 billion, followed by restorative reforestation at US$52 billion, peatland restoration at US$44 billion and seagrass restoration at US$28 billion.

The report identifies employment generation as another potential benefit of scaling up restoration. While more than one million green jobs have already been associated with restoration initiatives, increased global investment could generate up to 32 million additional jobs by 2030.

It also highlights the potential contribution of ecosystem restoration to climate mitigation and biodiversity protection. Research cited in the assessment indicates that restoring just 15 per cent of global priority areas could capture and store 30 per cent of carbon dioxide-equivalent emissions released since the Industrial Revolution and help prevent 60 per cent of projected species extinctions.

The report further identifies the participation and leadership of Indigenous Peoples and local communities as essential to ensuring long-term restoration outcomes. Secure land rights, stronger monitoring systems and sustained political commitment are among the priorities identified.

With five years remaining in the UN Decade on Ecosystem Restoration, the assessment calls on governments to move beyond isolated restoration projects towards coordinated, long-term programmes that address the underlying causes of ecosystem degradation.

It emphasises that the 2030 targets should serve as a milestone in the restoration process rather than its conclusion, as ecological recovery requires sustained action and investment beyond the end of the decade.

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