15,800 Additional Heat Deaths Projected: Can India’s Mortality Data Capture the Real Toll?
India could see 15,800 additional heat-related deaths, according to a Climate Impact Lab projection. But can India’s mortality data capture the true health toll of extreme heat and rising temperatures?
Women and children carry water along a dry rural road in India, highlighting the challenges of extreme heat and water scarcity. Image credit: Gyan shahane/Unsplash
India is heading into another winter against the backdrop of a changing climate, with scientists warning that rising global temperatures are altering the country’s weather patterns. Heatwaves are becoming a growing public-health concern, yet one question remains hard to answer: “How many heat deaths is India actually recording from extreme heat?”
A new report by the Climate Impact Lab, an initiative of the University of Chicago’s Energy Policy Institute, puts the toll in the thousands. Titled ‘451,000 at Risk’ and published in September 2026, it projects about 15,800 additional deaths in India, with a stated range of ±1,600, between September 2026 and February 2027. The comparison is with the same months of an average year between 1996 and 2025. That makes India the fourth most affected country in the report’s ranking, behind Nigeria, Indonesia and Sudan. The figure comes with an important caveat: it is a modelled estimate, not a count of deaths recorded by India’s health system.
The timing matters. Of India’s projected total, 7,400 deaths fall between December and February, and the Lab expects heat-related deaths in India and Pakistan to keep rising into their summer, beyond the forecast window. It says it will update its projections as the El Niño progresses.
El Niño, the ‘Little Boy’
El Niño is Spanish for ‘the little boy’, but the concern it is causing is far from small as global temperatures continue to reach exceptional levels.
El Niño is a naturally occurring climate pattern associated with unusually warm waters in the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean. It can temporarily push global temperatures higher and influence rainfall and temperature patterns across the world, including the Indian monsoon. The Lab describes the current event as a ‘Super El Niño’ that began in June and is expected to last through the northern-hemisphere spring, and notes that it could become the strongest on record.
The report projects that global land temperatures will be about 1.2°C above normal in the coming months, largely because of El Niño. That is comparable to the warming climate change is projected to deliver 20 years from now, and the Lab expects 44 per cent more extremely hot days than in a normal year.
Scientists have increasingly examined El Niño alongside the longer-term influence of human-caused climate change. While El Niño is a natural phenomenon, its effects occur against a warmer global baseline created by the accumulation of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere.
Recent records show the scale of that warming. The EU’s Copernicus Climate Change Service has recorded exceptionally warm months and seasons in recent years, and 2024 was the first calendar year in which the global mean temperature exceeded 1.5°C above the pre-industrial level, according to the Lancet Countdown. Single months or years above 1.5°C do not by themselves mean the Paris Agreement limit has been breached, which is judged on a multidecadal average. On 2 September, the UN Environment Programme (UNEP) published its ‘Limiting Overshoot’ report, which warns that global temperature rise is set to cross 1.5°C, likely within the next few years.
An aerial view of a wildfire burning through dry vegetation, highlighting the growing risk of extreme heat and fire in a warming climate.Image credit:Kelly/Pexels
The changing climate is also being felt in more variable rainfall. According to the India Meteorological Department (IMD), India received 706.9 mm of rain between 1 June and 22 September against a normal of 832.4 mm, a deficit of about 15 per cent. Rainfall has not been uniform across the country: some regions have had significant rain, while others have faced prolonged deficits or intense, short-duration downpours.
Rainfall, temperature and humidity also interact to shape heat exposure. A warmer atmosphere can increase the intensity of certain heat events, while high humidity makes it harder for the body to cool itself through sweating.
The Hidden Mortality Problem
The 2025 report of the Lancet Countdown on Health and Climate Change found that heat-related deaths have risen by 63 per cent since the 1990s, averaging an estimated 546,000 a year between 2012 and 2021.
The Lab projects around 451,000 additional heat-related deaths worldwide, compared with a normal year, from June 2026 to February 2027, the first nine months of the El Niño event. About 239,000 of those (±11,000) fall in the six months from September to February, the same window as India’s figure.
The Global South is expected to be hit hardest. Nigeria, Sudan, Niger and Chad, which the report groups as the Sahel, together face 66,800 additional deaths, of which Nigeria accounts for around 31,400, Sudan 17,500, Niger 10,000 and Chad 8,000. Indonesia is projected to see 19,300 additional deaths, and the Philippines, Vietnam, Thailand and Cambodia together 19,400. Brazil’s projected figure is 13,300.
Emily Grover-Kopec, Director within the Energy & Climate practice at Rhodium Group and co-author of Climate impact lab report said the estimates are based on temperature–mortality relationships and seasonal temperature forecasts from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts’ SEAS5 system. The Lab says it applied those relationships, which account for differences in local climate, vulnerability and adaptive capacity across 24,378 regions, to the forecasts. It says the full methodology will appear in an upcoming peer-reviewed journal, so the analysis has not yet been through that process.
Counting deaths from extreme heat is considerably harder than counting deaths from an accident or an infectious disease.
Part of the difficulty lies in how deaths are recorded. Heat may not appear as the immediate cause of death on a death certificate. A person exposed to extreme temperatures may die from cardiovascular disease, respiratory illness, kidney failure or another complication, making it difficult to establish the role heat played.
When temperatures rise sharply, hospitals may see more patients with dehydration, heatstroke and other heat-related illnesses. But extreme heat can also worsen existing medical conditions, and deaths from those conditions may not be recorded as heat-related.
This creates a gap between observed deaths and excess mortality: the number of deaths above what would normally be expected in a given period.
In India, that gap starts with how deaths are counted. According to an analysis by Rakesh Dubbudu on India Together, the country has no single authority, definition or process for a heat-related death. The National Disaster Management Authority counts deaths tied to declared heatwaves, the National Crime Records Bureau relies on police registers, and the health ministry counts clinically suspected heatstroke. For 2000–2020, the crime records bureau’s total exceeded 20,600, the disaster authority’s was about 17,700 and the IMD’s about 10,500. The Associated Press reported in 2024 that for 2020 the crime records bureau recorded 530 heatstroke deaths while the disaster authority reported four.
The wider system has its own limits. India’s civil registration system recorded 86.6 lakh deaths in 2023, a registration level of 97.2 per cent, but medical certification of the cause of death is far less complete, and heatstroke is hard to certify after death, especially in rural areas where post-mortems are rare.
Beyond the Numbers
The projection of thousands of additional deaths is therefore more than a statistical matter. It raises a larger question: whether India’s public-health and mortality surveillance systems can keep pace with a changing climate.
Michael Greenstone, a co-founder of the Climate Impact Lab and the Milton Friedman Distinguished Service Professor in Economics at the University of Chicago, said the report allows decision-makers to see ‘exactly where emergency actions can be taken now’ to save tens of thousands of lives in the coming months.
Co-author Tamma Carleton, the Lab’s faculty head of research and an assistant professor at the University of California, Berkeley, said that better-targeted emergency efforts can save many lives this year, but that resources must also be mobilised now to design, deploy and evaluate the planning tools that will save lives in the years ahead.
The Lab argues that targeted action could avoid tens of thousands of deaths. It points to early-warning systems and heat action plans, cooling centres, protections for outdoor workers, expanded health-system capacity, more accurate temperature forecasting and wider access to cooling technologies, while noting that many of these measures have been evaluated only in specific geographies.
As climate change raises the frequency and intensity of extreme heat in many regions, the ability to measure its human cost will matter more.
The question is no longer only how hot India is becoming. It is also whether the country’s data systems can tell us how many lives that heat is costing.
Jishnu P is an Editorial Associate and Reporter at EdPublica. He holds a Master’s degree in Communication and Journalism from Pondicherry University, India, and a Bachelor’s degree in Physics.
Climate Science Faces a Deadline: Can the IPCC Deliver Before the 2028 Global Stocktake?
Climate protesters demand stronger action on global warming, highlighting the urgency of translating climate science into effective policy and international commitments.
Climate protesters carry “There Is No Planet B” placards during a demonstration, calling for stronger action to address the climate crisis.Image credit:Pexels
Disagreement over the publication schedule of the world’s leading climate assessment has exposed a growing tension between the urgency of climate action and the need for equitable scientific participation.
The world’s leading climate science body is approaching a critical decision over when to publish its next major assessment, raising concerns that governments could enter the next phase of global climate negotiations without a comprehensive review of the latest climate science.
The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has repeatedly failed to reach agreement on a timeline for its Seventh Assessment Report (AR7), with disagreements among member countries continuing for nearly three years. The dispute comes ahead of the second Global Stocktake under the Paris Agreement, scheduled to conclude in 2028, when countries will assess collective progress towards addressing climate change.
A Reuters report published on October 9 reported that the deadlock could complicate international climate negotiations. The disagreement centres on whether the IPCC should complete its three main working-group assessments in time to inform the 2028 process or allow additional time for drafting, review and approval.
The IPCC’s assessments inform international climate agreements and national decisions on emissions reduction, adaptation and climate finance. A delay could therefore affect not only when scientific findings become available, but also how governments use them to shape their next climate commitments.
A clash between urgency and equitable participation
The disagreement has exposed differences between countries over the pace of climate action and the conditions required to produce credible scientific assessments.
More than 30 countries, including European nations and small-island states, have supported efforts to complete the assessments in time for the 2028 Global Stocktake. They argue that governments need the most recent scientific evidence when evaluating whether existing climate commitments are sufficient.
Other countries, including India, China, Russia and Saudi Arabia, have called for more time. They argue that a compressed timetable could undermine the ability of researchers and governments in developing countries to review the reports and participate meaningfully in the assessment process.
These concerns matter because IPCC assessments involve extensive scientific drafting, expert review and government scrutiny. Researchers from countries with fewer resources may face constraints in funding, research infrastructure and the time available to contribute to a process that relies heavily on scientific expertise.
Electric vehicle charging point in an urban city.Representational image.Image credit:Pexels
However, the disagreement has also prompted concerns that a delay could weaken the connection between climate science and international decision-making. The competing positions raise a fundamental question: how can the IPCC ensure both timely assessments and fair participation without compromising scientific quality?
Carbon Brief reported in April that governments had failed to agree on the timeline across five consecutive IPCC sessions. The IPCC chair, Jim Skea, said the impasse had produced little progress on resolving the issue, although work on the assessments was continuing.
The disagreement does not mean that climate research has stopped. Scientists are continuing to draft the working-group reports, but uncertainty over the final schedule creates difficulties for planning reviews, meetings and the wider assessment process.
Why the 2028 deadline matters
The Global Stocktake is a central mechanism of the Paris Agreement. It evaluates how far countries have progressed towards the agreement’s goals and informs subsequent national climate plans.
The second stocktake is due to conclude in 2028 at COP33. If the IPCC’s working-group reports are not ready in time, negotiators could have to rely on existing assessments alongside other available scientific evidence.
The IPCC’s Seventh Assessment Report covers three broad areas: the physical science of climate change; climate impacts, adaptation and vulnerability; and options for reducing greenhouse gas emissions. Together, these assessments help governments understand the scale of climate risks and the choices available to address them.
The upcoming IPCC-65 meeting in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia, scheduled for October 12–16, is therefore an important opportunity for governments to seek agreement on the timetable. The outcome could determine whether the assessment process remains aligned with the 2028 stocktake.
For India and other developing countries, the debate has implications beyond scheduling. Their participation in climate assessments can influence how regional vulnerabilities, development priorities and adaptation needs are represented in the scientific evidence used by policymakers.
The challenge for the IPCC is to reconcile two objectives: delivering scientific findings when governments need them and ensuring that the process includes researchers from across regions and income levels.
As the meeting approaches, the question is no longer simply when the next climate assessment will be published. It is whether the international community can establish a timeline that preserves scientific credibility, broad participation and the usefulness of climate evidence for decisions that will shape the planet’s warming future.
Extreme Heat Threatens Pregnancies, Exposing Gaps in Climate Adaptation Plans
Extreme heat is emerging as a growing threat to pregnancy and childbirth. Research from India and an international survey highlight the risks to maternal and newborn health, underscoring the need for stronger healthcare protections and climate adaptation plans.
Rising temperatures are increasing concerns about maternal and newborn health, highlighting the need to protect pregnant women from extreme heat.Image credit:Pexels
Evidence from Tamil Nadu and a new international survey shows how rising temperatures threaten maternal and newborn health, with outdoor workers and rural women facing particular risks.
Extreme heat is emerging as a growing threat to pregnancy and childbirth, but climate adaptation plans risk overlooking the women and newborns most vulnerable to its effects. New international survey findings, alongside research from Tamil Nadu, point to a widening public-health challenge as rising temperatures threaten maternal health and expose inequalities in access to safe healthcare.
At least 73% of maternal healthcare professionals surveyed across five countries reported an increase in heat-related cases or complications affecting pregnant women over the past five years, according to a survey commissioned by global charitable foundation Wellcome. Meanwhile, 76% reported an increase in heat-related complications affecting foetal or newborn health.
The findings were highlighted by Simon Stiell, executive secretary of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), at an event organised by Wellcome during the Pre-COP ministerial meeting in Fiji on October 5, ahead of the COP31 climate conference in Türkiye in November.
“Rising temperatures mean rising danger in pregnancy,” Stiell said, pointing to links between extreme heat during pregnancy and premature birth, stillbirth, low birth weight and maternal complications.
The survey covered 1,000 maternal healthcare professionals working in Australia, Brazil, India, the United Kingdom and Zimbabwe. It found that 81% were concerned that extreme heat would increasingly threaten maternal, foetal and newborn health without further action. Nearly all respondents had cared for a pregnant woman or baby whose health they believed had been affected by extreme heat, while 92% wanted more training and resources to protect pregnant women.
The findings highlight a critical gap in climate preparedness: although heat-health warnings are becoming increasingly important, pregnancy and newborn care are not always adequately incorporated into plans for responding to extreme temperatures.
Evidence from India highlights unequal risks
Research from Tamil Nadu adds to the growing evidence that occupational heat exposure can have serious consequences for pregnancy.
A prospective cohort study published in BJOG: An International Journal of Obstetrics & Gynaecology examined 800 pregnant women engaged in moderate to heavy physical work in Tamil Nadu. Researchers found that 47.3% experienced high occupational heat exposure. Among heat-exposed women, 29.6% experienced moderate dehydration, while 17.4% recorded an increase in core body temperature.
The study found that women exposed to high occupational heat had 2.4 times the adjusted odds of miscarriage and 2.3 times the adjusted odds of an adverse pregnancy outcome. The latter included outcomes such as miscarriage, preterm birth, low birth weight and stillbirth.
Children are attending school in temporary learning centres following the devastating floods in Nuwakot, Nepal, where climate change and glacial ice melt have played a significant factor.Image credit: UNICEF/Laxmi Prasad Ngakhusi
The researchers also found that high occupational heat exposure was associated with twice the adjusted odds of an adverse outcome at birth. Although the study establishes an association rather than proving that heat alone caused each outcome, it provides evidence of the risks faced by pregnant women working in hot conditions.
A separate observational cohort study involving 680 pregnant women across six Tamil Nadu districts examined differences between rural and urban populations. Researchers found that 55% of rural participants experienced heat exposure above the study’s permissible limit, compared with 45% of urban participants.
Rural women were also more likely to report heat-strain symptoms, including excessive thirst, fatigue, headaches and dizziness. After accounting for potential confounding factors, heat-exposed rural women had nearly twice the risk of adverse pregnancy outcomes and three times the risk of adverse birth outcomes compared with the study’s urban comparison group.
The study also found a fourfold higher risk of miscarriage among heat-exposed rural women during the first trimester compared with urban women. The researchers identified socioeconomic disadvantage, limited awareness of heat risks and reduced access to welfare facilities as factors that could contribute to rural women’s greater vulnerability.
Evidence from a separate study of 126,273 pregnancies recorded in India and Pakistan reinforces the concern. Researchers found that higher average maximum temperatures during the second trimester were associated with an increased risk of preterm birth. The relative risk was 1.05 for the study’s five-degree temperature contrast, indicating a 5% relative increase in risk—not a five-percentage-point increase in the absolute risk of premature birth.
Together, these studies suggest that heat exposure is not simply an environmental inconvenience during pregnancy. It can coincide with dehydration, physically demanding work and barriers to healthcare, creating risks that are unevenly distributed across communities.
From warnings to protection
Stiell warned that the effects of extreme heat are not shared equally. Pregnant women who work outdoors, live in poorly ventilated housing, travel long distances to clinics or depend on healthcare facilities without reliable electricity, water or cooling cannot be protected through public advice alone.
“Staying cool” is not a realistic option for families without access to cool spaces, he argued. Without targeted intervention, extreme heat could deepen existing inequalities in maternal healthcare, making a safe pregnancy increasingly dependent on income, geography and access to medical services.
Stiell outlined three priorities for governments: integrating pregnancy and newborn care into climate adaptation and heat-health planning; translating evidence into practical protection through healthcare-worker training, heat alerts and safer facilities; and improving data to identify where risks are growing and which interventions are effective.
For India, the findings have implications for heat-action plans, occupational safety and maternal healthcare. Measures could include heat-risk guidance during antenatal visits, better protection for pregnant outdoor workers, improved ventilation and cooling in maternity facilities, and reliable access to water and electricity during extreme heat.
The UN climate chief also called for adaptation-finance commitments agreed at COP30 in Belém, Brazil, to be delivered and for countries to work towards mobilising $1.3 trillion annually for developing countries.
Health is expected to remain a key priority in preparations for COP31, scheduled for November 9–20, 2026, in Türkiye’s Antalya province, under the Turkish presidency and with Australia leading negotiations.
The emerging evidence makes the policy challenge clear: protecting pregnant women and newborns must become part of climate resilience, rather than an afterthought. As temperatures rise, governments will need to assess climate action not only by emissions targets and financial commitments, but also by whether healthcare systems can protect people during pregnancy and give newborns a safe start to life.
Inside Gas Kitchens, Workers Face Heat as High as 50°C
Commercial kitchen air pollution can exceed health guidelines, with gas kitchens exposing workers to heat, nitrogen dioxide, benzene and carbon monoxide.
Researchers monitored 27 commercial gas kitchens in California, Pennsylvania and New York. The three all-electric kitchens stayed inside every limit. Gas pilot lights left burning overnight pushed some readings above what the same kitchens recorded during service.
Researchers attached a temperature monitor to a chef’s shoulder during a cooking session of roughly five hours. The average reading was 92°F (33°C). At its peak it touched 106°F (41°C).
One chef on one shift is a small sample, and the scientists treated it that way. But it sits inside a larger study, published on 6 October, that comes to an uncomfortable conclusion for the restaurant trade. In about seven out of ten commercial kitchens that cook with gas or propane, workers were exposed to air pollution, heat, or both at levels above health-based guidelines. The kitchens that cooked only with electricity did not cross a single line.
Gas Kitchens Can Reach Extreme Heat During Service
The paper, “Combustion-Derived Air Pollution and Heat from Gas-fired Appliances in Commercial Kitchens Can Exceed Health-Based Guidelines”, comes from researchers at PSE Healthy Energy, the Stanford Doerr School of Sustainability and New York University’s Grossman School of Medicine, working with chef Christopher Galarza. It was published in Environmental Research Letters. The team says it is the first US study to compare gas, propane and all-electric commercial kitchens under real working conditions.
What was measured
The team monitored 27 kitchens in California, Pennsylvania and New York. Twenty-one cooked with natural gas, three with propane and three were all-electric. Instruments recorded nitrogen dioxide, benzene, carbon monoxide, carbon dioxide, methane and air temperature at locations where staff actually work. Readings were taken during service and again overnight, when the kitchens were closed.
The kitchens volunteered. PSE recruited restaurants, cafés, hotels and similar sites through a public sign-up, with a preference for full-service kitchens that had commercial ventilation hoods. Galarza recruited most of the participating kitchens himself.
The air
Nitrogen dioxide is a by-product of burning fuel. It inflames the airways and raises the risk of asthma. During cooking hours, the hourly average measured outside the hood systems was above the US Environmental Protection Agency’s one-hour standard of 100 parts per billion in 17 of the 24 gas and propane kitchens.
That benchmark was written for outdoor air, not for workplaces, and the researchers use it as a health-based yardstick. The occupational comparison is starker. In one kitchen, a 15-minute average went above 1,000 parts per billion, the short-term workplace limit recommended by the National Institute for Occupational Safety and Health.
Other pollutants also crossed lines. Carbon monoxide went over California’s one-hour guideline of 20 parts per million in three gas kitchens. Benzene, a known human carcinogen, went over California’s one-hour guideline of 8.4 parts per billion in five.
The findings bear on a common assumption, that a good hood solves the problem. The hoods helped, according to the study, which says they reduced pollutant exposure but did not remove it. At worker-relevant locations in roughly two-thirds to seven-tenths of the gas-fired kitchens, concentrations still went over health benchmarks.
The heat
Temperature was recorded in 19 of the gas kitchens. In 13 of them, or about 68 per cent, readings went above 90°F (32°C). That is the high-heat trigger in the heat rule OSHA, the US workplace safety regulator, proposed in 2024, and the level at which California’s indoor heat illness regulations apply. Ten kitchens recorded a maximum above 100°F (37°C), and four went past 122°F (50°C).
Weather was not the explanation. On days when the outdoor temperature stayed under 75°F (23°C), 10 of 13 gas kitchens still went over 90°F indoors. The researchers conclude that the heat comes mainly from the cooking equipment.
Yannai Kashtan, the lead author and an air quality scientist at PSE, told Stateline that nothing here will surprise anyone who has worked a line, since cooks already know these are “intense environments full of heat and pollution.” What the study adds is measurement. He pointed to the physics: a gas flame transfers only part of its heat to the pan, and the rest goes into the room.
Only two all-electric kitchens had temperature data. Both recorded some of the lowest in-service temperatures in the whole study, two of the three lowest. Two is too few to build an estimate on, and the authors do not claim otherwise.
Pilot lights overnight
The overnight finding may be the most unexpected. In about seven in ten of the gas kitchens monitored after closing, levels of nitrogen dioxide, carbon monoxide, carbon dioxide, methane and benzene were higher overnight than during service. Ventilation was switched off, and the pilot lights stayed lit. Seven kitchens went above the 100 parts per billion nitrogen dioxide mark during off-work hours.
Drew Michanowicz, a principal scientist at PSE and a co-author, said some of the highest indoor levels the team recorded came “when no one was cooking at all.” That matters for cleaning crews and for staff who arrive early to open up. He added that the same kind of commercial appliances are used in schools, hospitals and mixed-use buildings, so the exposure probably extends well beyond restaurants. The study did not measure those buildings.
None of the all-electric kitchens exceeded a pollutant threshold at any hour, day or night.
Who is affected
The US restaurant and food service industry employs an estimated 15.7 million people. About five million of them spend all of their working hours in the kitchen.
Galarza, who is a co-author as well as the person who found most of the kitchens, told Canary Media the results show “what it is we’re exposing ourselves to.” In the release, he said that kitchen staff should not have to accept excessive heat or polluted air as part of the job, and that the study gives owners and chefs better information on what equipment choices mean for the workplace.
Rob Jackson, a Stanford professor of Earth system science and a co-author, said burning gas in a restaurant kitchen is as suspect as burning it at home, and that the all-electric kitchens emitted none of the pollution seen in the gas ones. Jackson directs a Stanford programme called Electrification for Health. PSE ran the work under its Methane + Health Initiative. Readers should know that the authors have a long record of research on the health costs of burning gas indoors. Panama Bartholomy, executive director of the Building Decarbonization Coalition, which promotes electrification, welcomed the results in a statement quoted by Canary Media.
What the study cannot say
The sample is small. Twenty-seven kitchens spread across California, Pennsylvania and New York is a modest number, and only three of them were all-electric. Kitchens that agreed to be monitored may not look like the average restaurant, and the researchers did not select them at random. The study measured air and temperature, not the health of the people working in the kitchens. Whether any of these readings has made someone sick is a separate question that this work does not try to answer.
The yardsticks also come from different places. Some were written for outdoor air, some for one-hour exposures, and one is a recommended workplace limit. They are accepted ways of judging whether air is harmful, but they are not all legal limits that a kitchen would be cited for breaking.
What happens next
OSHA’s proposed heat rule has not been finalised. Legal analysts tracking the rulemaking say it has stalled, and that the Labor Department’s regulatory agenda points to a supplemental proposal in December 2026. Until a federal standard exists, OSHA relies on its general duty clause to cite employers for heat hazards, and a number of states, California among them, enforce their own rules.
For owners, the study points to two things that can be changed: how well the kitchen is ventilated and which fuel the appliances burn. Its authors describe both as the main controllable factors behind the air and heat that workers face.