New research finds that up to 560 million children under ten are already living through at least one extra month of dangerous heat every year because of human-induced climate change — nearly triple the exposure faced by people in their sixties. South Asia, Southeast Asia and West Africa carry the heaviest load. EdPublica breaks down the numbers.
Children and heat stress are becoming an increasingly serious climate risk, with 560 million children under 10 already exposed to at least one additional month of dangerous heat each year because of human-induced climate change.
In Chennai, Divya watches the clock more than the calendar. Her son is two. Most evenings she decides against the playground — the heat, the risk of dehydration, sunburn on skin that has barely had two summers to toughen up — and he stays indoors instead, missing the other children who might have become his friends. “I’m really worried that he won’t be able to experience the childhood that I did,” she says. It is not a single bad week she is describing. It is most of the year, most years, and she is far from alone in making that calculation.
Children and heat stress: The numbers behind a warming childhood
New research now puts a number on what parents like Divya have been working out for themselves. A study published in Science Advancesby an international team led by the VUB’s Department of Water and Climate — with collaborators from ETH Zurich, Oxford, the University of Waikato and the Potsdam Institute — is the first to quantify, age group by age group, how much of the world’s heat exposure can be pinned specifically on human-induced climate change rather than natural variability. The answer, for children aged 0–9, is stark: 560 million of them (43 per cent of all children in that age bracket worldwide) are already exposed to at least one additional month of dangerous heat stress a year that would not exist in a world without fossil-fuel emissions. That is nearly three times the 190 million people aged 60–69 (30 per cent) facing the same additional burden.
What “heat stress” actually means here
The study doesn’t count ordinary hot days. It uses wet-bulb globe temperature (WBGT) — a measure that folds in humidity, sunlight and wind, not just the thermometer reading — and defines a “heat stress day” as one where shaded WBGT crosses 28°C, the threshold at which health guidance recommends reduced activity or structured rest. An “additional” heat stress day is one that attribution science shows would not have occurred in a pre-industrial climate.
This distinction matters because humid heat is far more dangerous than dry heat: once humidity climbs high enough, sweat stops evaporating, and the body’s main cooling mechanism simply fails. A companion explainer accompanying the study notes that the same 30°C can feel pleasant at 30 per cent humidity and be suffocating — even lethal over time — at 85 per cent. Extreme heat already kills roughly half a million people a year, making it the deadliest form of extreme weather, and researchers estimate that nine in ten of those deaths go uncounted in official records.
Source: VUB/Science Advances. Chart: EdPublica
How the numbers were built: researchers combined 2023 population data with climate models and attribution science — the branch of climate research that isolates how much of an observed trend is due to human-caused warming rather than natural variability — comparing today’s climate against a modelled pre-industrial one with today’s population overlaid. The 1.5°C and 2°C projections assume a “middle-of-the-road” path for both future emissions and demographic change.
The scale, by the numbers
560 million children aged 0–9 (43%) face at least one additional month of climate-driven heat stress today.
350 million (27%) face at least five months of total heat stress a year — nearly triple the 120 million adults aged 60–69 (18%) who do.
Climate change has nearly tripled the number of children enduring five-plus months of dangerous heat, from 120 million in a hypothetical world without warming to 350 million today.
Under 1.5°C of global warming — a threshold current policy trajectories are likely to overshoot — exposure rises to 620 million children (49%).
Under 2°C, it rises further to 650 million children (59%), with 420 million (37%) facing five-plus months a year.
Children are hit hardest not because of where they happen to live, but because of demographics colliding with geography: the tropical and lower-income regions where climate-driven humid heat is intensifying fastest also happen to have the youngest populations. As global warming continues, the proportion of children exposed keeps climbing even in countries where ageing populations mean the absolute number of children eventually falls.
South Asia carries the heaviest load
Three regions post the highest absolute numbers of exposed children: South Asia, Southeast Asia and West Africa. South Asia alone accounts for the largest single share.
Source: VUM/Science Advances. Chart: EdPublica
South Asia (SAS): 167.4 million children (62%) are exposed to at least one additional month of heat stress today. Climate change has doubled the number enduring five-plus months — from 80 million to 156.6 million children, or 58 per cent of the region’s under-tens. At 2°C, that climbs to 93 per cent facing at least a month, and 73 per cent facing five months or more.
India: 145 million children (61%) are exposed today, with the five-month-plus group doubling from 59 million to 118 million (50%). At 2°C, 96 per cent of Indian children aged 0–9 — 169 million — would face at least a month of added heat stress annually, and 120 million (68%) would face five months or more.
Bangladesh: 79 per cent of children already exposed; the five-month-plus group has nearly tripled to 26 million (91% of the country’s under-tens).
Southeast Asia (SEA): 90 per cent of children exposed today; the five-month-plus figure has nearly quadrupled to 72.6 million (72%).
West Africa (WAF): 96 per cent of children exposed today across the region; nineteen countries — including Benin, Burkina Faso, Cambodia, Côte d’Ivoire, Ghana, Mali, Niger, Senegal and Sierra Leone — already have effectively 100 per cent of their under-ten population facing at least one additional month of heat stress a year.
The India figures carry particular weight: three in five Indian children under ten are already losing at least a month a year to dangerous heat that would not exist without fossil-fuel emissions, and that share could approach universal — 96 per cent — within a couple of decades of continued warming.
Source: VUM/Science Advances. Chart: EdPublica
Voices behind the data
Bhavreen Kandhari, founder of the Delhi-based parents’ collective Warrior Moms, described watching “childhood shrink” in the capital’s summers, telling researchers that mothers now check temperature readings the way they once checked air-quality indices before letting children outside. She noted that India has recently classified heatwaves as a notified natural calamity — an overdue acknowledgement, she said, of what families have lived through for years.
In Chennai, dermatologist and mother Vaaruni Ravishankar said the heat has pushed her toddler’s outdoor time later and later into the evening, edging out the unstructured outdoor play that paediatric development research consistently favours.
And from Bangladesh, 17-year-old child campaigner Imtiaz described nights that stay warm long after sunset, meaning children “wake up still tired” before another exhausting day of heat begins — a pattern he said drains energy, concentration and, ultimately, education.
Rosa Pietroiusti, the study’s lead author and a PhD researcher at VUB, said children in developing countries face disproportionate climate exposure “despite contributing the least to historical greenhouse gas emissions,” while poverty, poor housing and stretched health systems leave many with few ways to protect themselves. Senior author Professor Wim Thiery called for both drastic emissions cuts in line with the Paris Agreement and a sharp increase in climate finance and adaptation support — heat action plans, resilient housing, stronger public health systems — for the countries carrying the heaviest exposure.
An echo of Wayanad
This is a different hazard from the one EdPublica‘s Vaishnavi VS covered last month in After Kerala’s Deadliest Landslide, the Hardest Thing to Rebuild Was Childhood — a landslide rather than a heatwave, a single catastrophic event rather than a slow accumulation of hot months. That reporting followed GVHSS Vellarmala, the Wayanad school where 33 students died and 97 more were directly affected when the Chooralmala–Mundakkai landslide killed 298 people in July 2024, and traced how teachers with no trauma training improvised their way to a full recovery — mapping each surviving child’s interests, bringing in outside experts, and eventually getting seven grief-stricken students back into their SSLC exam hall for a 100 per cent pass rate.
The story also cited a UNICEF finding that puts heat squarely back in this frame: at least 242 million students across 85 countries had their schooling disrupted by climate extremes in 2024 alone, with heatwaves alone affecting an estimated 171 million students worldwide and South Asia the worst-hit region at 128 million. Landslide or heatwave, sudden or slow-accumulating, the two stories describe the same underlying vulnerability — children’s education and wellbeing absorbing the cost of a warming climate, and recovery systems that are, more often than not, being built on the fly rather than in advance.
Back in Chennai, none of this is abstract to Divya. She isn’t tracking wet-bulb globe temperatures or reading climate-attribution papers; she is deciding, most evenings, whether it is safe enough to let her son go outside. Multiply her calculation by 560 million children, in cities and villages from Dhaka to Dakar, and the shape of the number stops being statistical. It is a generation quietly being kept indoors, evening by evening, by a hazard their parents did not create and cannot switch off.
Featured image: Indian girl covering her face with her clothing during the harsh Indian summers. Image credit: Anurag Jamwal/UnSplash
Dipin Damodharan is an award-winning journalist, editor and media entrepreneur, and Co-founder and Editor-in-Chief of EdPublica, an independent global media platform covering education, science, research, innovation, climate and public policy. With more than a decade of experience in journalism, he has worked across print, digital and multimedia media. His reporting explores science, climate, sustainability and the social impact of research and innovation. His work has been recognised by the Solutions Journalism Network and other journalism organisations.
KSBB Workshop Examines Biodiversity, Climate and Environmental Reporting
The Kerala State Biodiversity Board’s three-day media capacity strengthening workshop brought journalists and biodiversity experts together to deepen understanding of Kerala’s rich ecosystems, conservation challenges and the role of informed environmental reporting.
Participants listen to Chairman of KSBB Dr. N. Anil Kumar during the Kerala State Biodiversity Board’s three-day Media Capacity Strengthening Workshop held at SAMETI, Kerala.
From shrinking paddy fields and an eroding coastline to rising human-wildlife conflict and the spread of invasive species, biodiversity loss in Kerala is increasingly showing up in the places and problems that shape everyday life. Yet much of this remains reported as separate environmental issues.
A three-day workshop by the Kerala State Biodiversity Board (KSBB) sought to bring these connections into sharper focus, bringing journalists together with scientists, biodiversity experts, policymakers and community practitioners to explore how climate and biodiversity stories can be reported with greater scientific depth and local context.
The Media Capacity Strengthening Workshop on Biodiversity Conservation and Climate Adaptation, held from September 17 to 19 at the State Agriculture Management and Extension Training Institute (SAMETI), Anayara, Thiruvananthapuram was organised by KSBB in association with the National Biodiversity Authority (NBA). It was aimed primarily at mid-career journalists covering environment, climate, science, development, agriculture, forests, wildlife and communities. Kerala Environment Minister Sunny Joseph attended the inaugural session, along with KSBB leadership, representatives and other invited guests.
Kerala Minister for Electricity and Environment Sunny Joseph inaugurates the Media Capacity Strengthening Workshop organised by the Kerala State Biodiversity Board at SAMETI by lighting the traditional lamp.
The programme focused on six themes: climate resilience and carbon neutrality, agrobiodiversity and food security, marine and coastal ecosystems, urban biodiversity and heat stress, human-wildlife conflict, and invasive alien species. Field engagements were also included to connect scientific and policy discussions with local ecosystems and communities.
Biodiversity as a Climate Story
The workshop examined Kerala’s 98 Ecologically Sensitive Area villages covering 8,711.98 sq km, and the role of forests, wetlands and other ecosystems in reducing climate risks such as floods, landslides and erosion. These ecosystems also function as carbon sinks and support local livelihoods.
Human-wildlife conflict was another major focus. KSBB’s workshop material records 390 human deaths and more than 5,400 injuries from wildlife attacks between 2021 and 2025, with elephants accounting for 111 fatalities. More than ₹41 crore has been disbursed as compensation since 2021.
Agriculture was discussed through the lens of both biodiversity loss and food security. Paddy cultivation in Kerala has declined by more than 75% since the 1970s, from over eight lakh hectares to less than two lakh hectares. The loss of traditional crop varieties and increasing monocropping were discussed as concerns for long-term agricultural and climate resilience.
The marine and coastal sessions examined Kerala’s 600-km coastline, coastal erosion, declining fish catches, blue carbon and community-based fisheries governance. KSBB’s workshop material notes that nearly 45% of Kerala’s beaches have experienced erosion, while fish catch has declined by about 20% over the past decade.
Urban biodiversity was considered through the example of Thiruvananthapuram, where KSBB has developed a City Biodiversity Index based on the Singapore Index framework. The index maps urban trees, wetlands, ecological corridors and biodiversity parks to bring biodiversity considerations into urban planning.
The workshop also examined invasive species including Senna spectabilis, Mikania micrantha, Eichhornia crassipes and Tilapia, and the pressures they place on native biodiversity, agriculture, forests and aquatic ecosystems.
The Role of KSBB
The Kerala State Biodiversity Board is an autonomous body under the State Environment Department, headquartered in Thiruvananthapuram. It functions under the Biological Diversity Act, 2002, the Biological Diversity Rules, 2004 and the Kerala State Biological Diversity Rules, 2008. Its mandate includes conserving and protecting the state’s agro, plant and fish diversity.
The Board’s work includes Biodiversity Management Committees (BMCs), People’s Biodiversity Registers (PBRs), Biodiversity Heritage Sites, research and awareness programmes, and Access and Benefit Sharing (ABS). These mechanisms connect biodiversity documentation and conservation with local governments and communities.
The workshop was also aligned with the Kerala State Biodiversity Strategy and Action Plan (K-SBSAP) 2025–2035, which provides a framework for conserving, restoring and sustainably managing the state’s biological and cultural heritage.
By bringing journalists into conversations with scientists, officials and communities, the three-day programme sought to make biodiversity reporting less confined to technical conservation issues and more attentive to the questions that affect everyday life, from food and livelihoods to heat, floods, wildlife conflict and the resilience of Kerala’s ecosystems.
A woman shields herself from the summer heat on a busy street in India.. Image credit: Anurag Jamwal/Pexels
Climate-driven heat exposed 117 million people in India to a month or more of risky heat between June and August 2026, according to a Climate Central analysis.
Between June and August this year, 117 million people in India spent a month or more under heat that would have been far less likely without a warming planet. That single number, from a new global analysis by Climate Central, puts India at the top of the world’s list for population exposed to climate-driven risky heat — ahead of China’s 94 million and Indonesia’s 83 million.
The finding sits inside a larger, starker pattern. Worldwide, over 1.5 billion people experienced 30 or more days of risky heat that climate change made significantly more likely this summer. On any single day of the season, more than a quarter of humanity felt a strong climate change signal in the local temperature. Climate Central’s scientists tracked this using their Climate Shift Index (CSI), which measures how much more likely a given day’s warmth was because of climate change, and flagged “risky heat days” as those hotter than 90% of what a place recorded between 1991 and 2020 — the threshold at which heat starts to strain the body.
The Global Climate-Driven Heat Scoreboard
Europe came out the most unusually hot continent on the planet this year, even though it was not the most populous one affected. Eighty-nine per cent of Europeans — nearly nine in ten — spent a month or more under risky heat. France and the Holy See tied for the largest temperature anomaly of any country, running 3.5°C above their historical norm, and seven of the world’s ten most abnormally hot countries were European. Fifty-four countries recorded their hottest June-to-August since 1970, France, Italy and the United Kingdom among them.
Asia, by contrast, carried the largest raw number of people through this heat: 2.8 billion, or 58% of the continent’s population, spent 30 days or more under conditions strongly shaped by climate change. India and Egypt were the two countries where more than 100 million people each crossed that threshold.
Africa’s story shows up less in totals and more in persistence. Six African countries spent at least 95% of the entire three-month period under a strong climate change influence — Rwanda for 91 days, Uganda for 89, Ethiopia for 88. For those populations, the season did not have an unusually hot patch; nearly the whole summer was one.
In North America, four in five people in the United States lived through a month’s worth of risky summer heat, with the average American gaining 23 such days from climate change and the average Canadian gaining 17.
India’s numbers, city by city
Nationally, India ran 0.7°C warmer than its 1991–2020 June-to-August average, and the average Indian experienced climate change’s fingerprint on local temperature for 39 days across the three months — better than a third of the entire season.
City-level data obtained alongside the release shows how unevenly that heat landed.
City
State
Days with strong climate signal
Risky heat days
Risky heat days added by climate change
Mumbai
Maharashtra
86
24
4
Pune
Maharashtra
76
17
17
Surat
Gujarat
74
26
9
Bengaluru
Karnataka
73
0
0
Madurai
Tamil Nadu
70
23
23
Nashik
Maharashtra
67
20
19
Coimbatore
Tamil Nadu
66
0
0
Visakhapatnam
Andhra Pradesh
65
21
9
Tiruchirappalli
Tamil Nadu
64
29
29
Chennai
Tamil Nadu
60
40
30
Vijayawada
Andhra Pradesh
43
18
10
Srinagar
Jammu and Kashmir
28
53
29
Source: Climate Central, June–August 2026 city dataset.
Two different stories run through these columns, and conflating them misses the point.
Mumbai tops the country for sheer duration: 86 of the 92 days in the season carried a strong climate change signal, more than any other Indian city measured. But of Mumbai’s 24 risky heat days, only four were added by climate change — the city runs hot most of the year regardless, so the climate contribution to its worst days is comparatively small. Pune and Nashik, sitting in Mumbai’s own state, show almost the opposite ratio: nearly every risky heat day they had this summer would not have happened without climate change.
Chennai had both the most risky heat days in the country — 40 — and the most added by climate change — 30. That combination makes it the city where the analysis draws the clearest straight line between a hot summer and a warming climate. Tiruchirappalli and Madurai, both in Tamil Nadu, follow the same pattern: every risky heat day counted in each city was one climate change made more likely.
Srinagar is the outlier worth pausing on. A city known for temperate summers recorded 53 risky heat days, more than any other Indian city in the dataset, of which 29 were attributed to climate change — a scale of departure from its own historical baseline far larger than what Mumbai or Delhi saw from theirs.
Where the heat did not arrive
Not every Indian city ran hotter than usual. Jaipur’s seasonal average came in 0.4°C below its 1991–2020 norm, Kota 0.2°C below, and Bhopal 0.1°C below — small numbers, but real ones, in a summer when most of the country and the world trended the other way. Even so, none of the three escaped the climate signal entirely: Jaipur still logged three risky heat days attributable to climate change, Kota three, Bhopal one. The exceptions are a reminder that a warming climate does not raise every thermometer in lockstep, even as it raises the odds almost everywhere.
What the numbers are measuring
The CSI framework Climate Central uses does not ask whether a heatwave happened — it asks how much more likely climate change made it. A CSI level of 2 or higher, the threshold used throughout this analysis, means the day’s warmth was at least twice as likely because of the human-driven build-up of greenhouse gases. That is a probability statement about cause, not a one-off weather reading, which is what allows the same framework to compare Mumbai’s long hot stretch against Chennai’s sharper, more clearly climate-driven spike.
Kristina Dahl, Climate Central’s vice president for science, described the pattern as one where “human-driven warming is pushing communities beyond safe physical limits” — a line written with Europe and North America in mind as much as South Asia. The India numbers suggest the same pressure is arriving unevenly within a single country: some cities absorbing a long, low-grade climate signal across most of the summer, others taking a shorter but far sharper hit concentrated into their worst weeks.
August 2026 tied July 2023 as the warmest month ever recorded globally. Record ocean temperatures and strengthening El Niño conditions add another dimension to the climate signal, with implications for India’s already uneven monsoon.
People gather along a waterfront at sunset as the world records increasingly high temperatures. Representational image. Image credit: Samet Çolakoğlu/Pexels
August 2026 tied July 2023 as the warmest month ever recorded globally. But the significance of the latest record lies beyond the temperature figure itself. Heat was building across the oceans, western Europe endured its hottest summer on record, and in India, a strengthening El Niño was adding pressure to an already uneven monsoon.
The global average surface air temperature in August was 16.96°C, 0.85°C above the 1991–2020 average, making it the warmest August in the ERA5 record. Relative to the estimated 1850–1900 pre-industrial average, temperatures were 1.65°C higher. It was the first month to cross 1.5°C since November 2025.
A single month above 1.5°C does not mean the Paris Agreement’s long-term temperature threshold has been breached. That threshold is assessed over a much longer period. What the August figure does show is how far short-term temperatures can now move beyond the historical baseline.
The Oceans Are Sending Their Own Signal
The heat was not confined to the atmosphere. Extra-polar oceans recorded their warmest August in the ERA5 dataset, with an average sea surface temperature of 21.07°C. That was also tied with March 2024 for the highest monthly average recorded for any month.
The tropical Pacific was particularly warm as El Niño conditions strengthened. Around Europe, Atlantic and western Mediterranean waters reached record August temperatures, alongside widespread strong or severe marine heatwaves. The ocean matters here because its warmth can influence atmospheric circulation, rainfall and marine ecosystems. In 2026, its connection to India’s monsoon was particularly relevant.
India Was Watching the Pacific
For India, the global temperature record arrived against a difficult monsoon backdrop. The India Meteorological Department had forecast below-normal rainfall for the 2026 southwest monsoon. By August 2, cumulative rainfall was 12% below the long-period average, with 47% of districts facing deficient or large-deficient rainfall. IMD attributed part of the suppressed monsoon circulation to the development and strengthening of El Niño conditions in the equatorial Pacific.
The deficits were not uniform. By early August, Kerala and Mahe were 22% below normal, while 16 meteorological subdivisions had rainfall deficits ranging from 20% to 38%.
That does not mean August’s global heat record caused India’s rainfall deficit. The monsoon is shaped by several interacting climate systems, and El Niño is only one of them. But the concurrence is significant: while the tropical Pacific was registering exceptional warmth, India was dealing with a monsoon season that was already running below its seasonal benchmark.
Europe Shows the Cost of Persistent Heat
Western Europe had its warmest summer on record in 2026, surpassing the previous record set in 2003. Heatwaves arrived early and persisted through the season. Heat was accompanied by prolonged dryness. Severe drought conditions were reported in France, the UK, Hungary, Romania and Serbia, while exceptionally low river flows affected the Rhine, Danube, Southern Bug and Dnieper.
The connection is important: extreme heat does not operate in isolation. When high temperatures persist alongside rainfall deficits, their effects can accumulate across agriculture, water systems, ecosystems and wildfire risk.
The Record Is Becoming the Background
August’s warmth is more revealing when viewed alongside the other records surrounding it. The month saw exceptional ocean temperatures and low sea-ice levels, while June–August was jointly the warmest global summer on record, matching 2024.
Source: Climate Change Service
The challenge in interpreting such records is to look beyond the headline number. A record month does not mean every region experienced record heat. It means the global climate system is operating from a warmer baseline, while regional weather continues to be shaped by monsoons, El Niño, ocean temperatures and other climate patterns. August 2026 was another record. Its importance may ultimately lie in how quickly records such as this stop looking extraordinary.