The world is building more coal plants, but using less coal than before. That contradiction lies at the centre of a new report by Global Energy Monitor (GEM), an international organisation that tracks energy infrastructure and the global shift toward cleaner power.

According to GEM, whose databases and research are widely used by institutions including the IPCC, IEA, UNEP and the World Bank, countries are continuing to expand coal power infrastructure even as coal’s role in electricity generation weakens globally.

The latest edition of GEM’s Boom and Bust 2026 report found that global coal power capacity grew by 3.5% in 2025, while coal-fired electricity generation declined by 0.6%. The report describes the trend as a major structural shift in the global energy system, where coal remains politically important in several countries even as renewable energy increasingly replaces it in practice.

China and India Drive Coal Growth

The contradiction is most visible in China and India, the world’s two largest coal consumers. Both countries commissioned large amounts of new coal capacity in 2025, even as coal generation declined because of record additions in solar and wind power.

China expanded coal capacity by 6% in 2025, while coal-fired generation fell by 1.2%. India recorded a similar pattern, with coal capacity increasing by 3.8% even as coal generation dropped by 2.9%.

The report suggests that coal’s decline is becoming increasingly durable despite global energy uncertainties, including geopolitical tensions affecting fuel supply routes such as the Strait of Hormuz. Renewable energy expansion has continued rapidly enough to reduce coal’s role in meeting new electricity demand.

Christine Shearer, Project Manager of GEM’s Global Coal Plant Tracker, described the trend as a defining paradox of the global energy transition.

“In 2025, the world built more coal and used it less,” she said. She added that 95% of all coal plant construction is now concentrated in China and India, even as both countries expand renewable energy fast enough to displace coal generation.

China’s Coal Pipeline Continues to Surge

China remained the dominant force in global coal expansion during 2025. The country recorded a record 161.7 GW of new and revived coal projects, while more than 500 GW of coal-fired capacity is currently under development.

The report warned that if these projects move ahead, China could remain locked into years of additional coal use throughout its 15th Five-Year Plan period from 2026 to 2030, despite official commitments to reduce coal consumption during the same timeframe.

India Expands Coal While Renewables Accelerate

India is also continuing major coal expansion plans. The country recorded 27.9 GW of new and revived coal proposals in 2025. Overall, India now has more than 107 GW of coal capacity in pre-construction planning and another 23.5 GW already under construction.

The Indian government has announced plans to add 100 GW of new coal capacity over the next seven years, even as renewable energy growth continues at record pace. In 2025, non-fossil fuel sources crossed the milestone of accounting for more than half of India’s installed electricity capacity.

Coal Development Shrinks Outside Asia

Outside China and India, coal development is shrinking rapidly. Only 32 countries were proposing or building new coal plants in 2025, down from 38 countries the previous year and less than half the 75 countries pursuing coal expansion in 2014.

Coal construction activity outside China and India accounted for just 5% of global coal construction capacity in 2025, marking a record low and highlighting how geographically concentrated coal development has become.

Several regions also made notable progress away from coal. Latin America achieved “No New Coal” status in 2025, while South Korea committed to a complete coal phaseout.

Türkiye, which is preparing to host COP31, now has only one active coal plant proposal remaining, compared with more than 70 proposed projects in 2015.

Delayed Coal Retirements Raise Concerns

The report also found that retirement plans for existing coal plants are slowing in several regions. Nearly 70% of coal-fired units scheduled for retirement globally in 2025 failed to retire as planned.

In the European Union, many delays were linked to energy security concerns that emerged during the 2022–23 energy crisis. In the United States, several ageing coal plants remained operational because of direct government interventions aimed at maintaining grid reliability.

Indonesia continued expanding its coal fleet, which grew by 7% in 2025, largely driven by captive coal plants supporting nickel and aluminium processing industries.

South Asia and Southeast Asia Show Mixed Trends

Elsewhere in South Asia, Pakistan rapidly expanded distributed solar energy, helping stabilise its electricity system against volatile fossil fuel markets. Bangladesh, meanwhile, continues to face fuel supply and technical challenges linked to its fossil-fuel-based power sector.

Across Southeast Asia outside Indonesia, coal commissioning declined for the third consecutive year. However, disruptions in regional gas supplies during 2026 led some countries to rely more heavily on existing coal infrastructure as a temporary backup source.

In Africa, new coal proposals remain limited and are mainly concentrated in Zimbabwe and Zambia.

Renewable Energy Reshapes the Global Energy Transition

The report concludes that coal is no longer expanding as a universally accepted solution for rising electricity demand. Instead, coal development is increasingly concentrated in a small number of countries, even as renewable energy demonstrates its ability to meet growing demand more efficiently and sustainably.

Methane emissions from the global energy sector remain stubbornly high, with no clear signs of decline, even as countries ramp up climate commitments. A new report by the International Energy Agency warns that closing this gap could not only curb warming but also significantly ease global gas shortages.

Released as part of the Global Methane Tracker 2026, the analysis shows that tried-and-tested measures could unlock up to 200 billion cubic metres (bcm) of natural gas annually—a volume that could reshape supply dynamics during a time of geopolitical strain.

Methane emissions plateau despite rising commitments

Despite pledges now covering over half of global oil and gas production, methane emissions from fossil fuels remained near record highs in 2025. The report highlights a widening “implementation gap” between ambition and actual reductions.

Around 70% of emissions are concentrated in just 10 countries, underscoring how targeted action could deliver outsized results. At the same time, performance varies drastically, with the most efficient producers emitting over 100 times less methane than the worst performers.

Energy crisis sharpens urgency

The urgency is heightened by ongoing disruptions in global energy markets, particularly the near-closure of the Strait of Hormuz, which has cut close to 20% of global LNG supply.

The IEA estimates that 15 bcm of gas could be made available quickly through existing methane abatement measures in key exporting and importing countries. Over time, broader action could deliver nearly 100 bcm annually, with another 100 bcm unlocked by eliminating non-emergency gas flaring.

“This is not only a climate issue,” said Tim Gould. “There are also major energy security benefits that can come from tackling methane and flaring, especially at a time when the world is urgently looking for additional supply amid the current crisis.”

Low-cost solutions within reach

The report emphasises that around 70% of methane emissions—roughly 85 million tonnes—can be reduced using existing technologies. Notably, over 35 million tonnes could be avoided at no net cost, making methane abatement one of the most cost-effective climate actions available.

A major share of emissions—about 80% in oil and gas—comes from upstream operations, making this a critical focus area for policymakers.

Coal sector under scrutiny

Experts say the coal sector remains a blind spot in global methane mitigation efforts.

“Coal, one of the biggest methane culprits, is still being ignored,” said Sabina Assan of Ember. “There are cost-effective technologies available today, so this is a low-hanging fruit for tackling methane. We can’t let coal mines off the hook any longer.”

India and other major emitters need sharper focus

For countries like India, the report and accompanying expert commentary point to an urgent need to prioritise methane from coal mining—an area often overlooked in climate strategies.

“Methane emissions from coal mining have not received enough attention,” said Rajasekhar Modadugu. “Major coal mining countries, including India, should focus on existing technologies and the feasibility of capturing or eliminating these emissions.”

Satellites and policy frameworks gaining traction

The report also highlights the growing role of satellite monitoring in identifying large methane leaks, alongside new frameworks developed with international bodies to help governments respond more effectively.

With improved data transparency and emerging markets for low-methane fuels, the IEA suggests the groundwork is already in place. The challenge now lies in execution.

As Gould put it, “Setting targets is only a first step—real progress depends on policies, implementation plans and concrete action

When the Strait of Hormuz was disrupted in 2026, a return to coal seemed inevitable. Instead, renewable energy filled the gap—revealing a deeper shift in how the world responds to energy crises.

When the Strait of Hormuz was blocked in early 2026, the world braced for an energy crisis. The narrow waterway is one of the most critical routes for global fuel transport, carrying nearly 19% of the world’s liquefied natural gas. As shipments were disrupted, a familiar expectation took hold: countries would fall back on coal.

That assumption was rooted in history. In previous crises, when gas supplies became uncertain or expensive, coal often filled the gap. This time, many expected the same pattern to repeat.

But it didn’t.

According to an analysis by the Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air (CREA), global fossil fuel power generation fell by around 1% in March 2026 compared to the previous year. Gas-fired power dropped more sharply, by 4%, while coal generation remained largely flat.

Hormuz Crisis and Clean Energy Shift

The CREA analysis, which draws on near-real-time electricity data covering major power markets including China, the United States, the European Union, and India, represents around 87% of global coal power and over 60% of gas power. In the context of a global disruption, even a modest decline signals something more structural: the expected “return to coal” did not materialise.

The explanation lies in a shift that has been building quietly over the past decade—the rapid expansion of renewable energy.

In March 2026, increases in solar and wind played a decisive role in offsetting the drop in fossil fuels. Solar generation rose by 14%, while wind increased by 8%, with hydropower also contributing modest gains. Together, these sources absorbed the shortfall without pushing systems back toward coal.

“The record growth in global clean power generation, particularly solar and wind, has helped ease the impact of the latest fossil fuel crisis,” said Lauri Myllyvirta, Lead Analyst at CREA. “The increase in clean electricity offset the fall in gas-fired power generation following the Hormuz blockade, preventing a jump in coal-fired power generation.”

Outside China, coal-fired generation fell by 3.5%, while gas declined by 4%. Major economies—including the United States, India, the European Union, Turkey, and South Africa—recorded reductions in coal-based electricity. This directly challenges the long-standing assumption that fossil fuels serve as the default backup during crises.

The scale of renewable growth helps explain why.

In 2025 alone, the world added roughly 510 gigawatts of solar capacity and 160 gigawatts of wind. These additions are expected to generate about 1,100 terawatt-hours of electricity annually. By comparison, all the natural gas transported through the Strait of Hormuz in 2025 could produce around 590 terawatt-hours—roughly equivalent to France’s total power generation.

In effect, the renewable capacity added in a single year now produces nearly twice the electricity linked to one of the world’s most strategic fossil fuel routes. The implications are structural, not temporary.

Further evidence comes from coal transport. Seaborne coal shipments fell by 3% in March 2026, reaching their lowest levels since 2021. China and India, the world’s largest coal importers, saw a 9% drop in shipments, while countries such as Turkey and Vietnam also recorded declines.

Coal did not step in to fill the gap, in part because it could not. In many markets, coal plants were already operating near their maximum capacity. With coal already heavily utilised—often because it had been cheaper than gas—there was limited room to increase output further.

Gas, by contrast, typically serves as a flexible buffer in power systems. When gas supplies were disrupted, that flexibility was constrained. Renewable energy, rather than coal, filled the resulting gap.

At the same time, rising fossil fuel prices have strengthened the economic case for clean energy, discouraging new investment in coal.

This pattern has precedent. When Russia reduced gas exports to Europe, there were similar fears of a coal resurgence. While coal use rose briefly, the longer-term response was an acceleration of renewable deployment, leading to a sustained decline in emissions. The Hormuz disruption appears to be reinforcing that trajectory rather than reversing it.

At the country level, the trend is largely consistent. The most significant declines in coal power generation were recorded in the United States, India, South Africa, Turkey, Germany, and the Netherlands. In many cases, the expansion of solar power was the primary driver, supported by improvements in hydropower and nuclear generation.

There were exceptions. Japan and South Korea saw increases in coal use due to weaker nuclear output, while parts of coastal China temporarily shifted from gas to coal amid high gas prices. Even so, overall coal generation in China remained below 2024 levels, underscoring the broader direction of change.

The crisis has also triggered policy responses aligned with long-term transition goals. France is accelerating electrification across key sectors. Egypt plans to add 2,500 megawatts of renewable capacity. India has announced annual bids for 50 gigawatts of renewable energy. Indonesia is pursuing a 100-gigawatt solar vision, while Turkey has pledged $80 billion in renewable investments by 2035. Vietnam, meanwhile, is planning to phase out coal-fired plants in new energy projects after 2030.

These moves suggest that the response to disruption is not a return to older systems, but a faster shift toward new ones. The findings from CREA point to a deeper transition already underway—one in which clean energy is no longer supplementary, but central to energy security.

For decades, fossil fuels were seen as the backbone of energy security—reliable, scalable, and indispensable during crises. That assumption is now being tested. Renewable energy is increasingly demonstrating its ability to stabilise supply during periods of disruption.

The idea of a “coal comeback” may have made for compelling headlines, but the data tells a different story. Instead of turning back, the global energy system appears to be moving forward.

The Hormuz crisis may ultimately be remembered not as a moment of regression, but as an inflection point—one that revealed how far the transition to clean energy has already progressed, and how it may accelerate in the years ahead.