With forecasters now placing strong odds on a new global heat surge by 2030, a temperature record could be set within the next five years. The planet is on track for another stretch of extreme heat. A fresh outlook from the WMO projects that 2026 through 2030 will stay at or near the hottest levels ever measured, continuing a warming trend that has already pushed the climate into extends not seen in recorded history. Despite years of efforts to cut emissions, the planet keeps warming and the Paris Agreement’s 1.5°C goal is now getting tested more often than not.

The numbers show how far the planet has drifted from the goals set out in the agreement, which calls for keeping long-term warming under 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels. The WMO now puts the odds at 91% that at least one year in this window will tip past that mark, even if only briefly. More notably, there’s a three-in-four chance that the five-year average itself will land above 1.5°C.

That doesn’t mean the Paris targets have been missed, those are tracked over decades, not single years. But scientists say breaches like this happening more often is itself a warning sign of how close the world is getting to its long-term limits.

Per the forecast, yearly global temperatures through 2030 should fall somewhere between 1.3°C and 1.9°C above the 1850–1900 baseline, and there’s an 86% likelihood that at least one of those years will top 2024, which currently holds the record for hottest year on record.

Why 2027 Is on Watch?

Much of this hinges on the tropical Pacific. Forecasters expect El Niño conditions to develop by late 2026, which would inject extra heat into the atmosphere on top of the warming already driven by greenhouse gases.

“There is an El Niño predicted for the end of 2026, which increases the chances of the following year, 2027, being the next record-breaking year,” said Dr. Leon Hermanson, the report’s lead author.

Arctic Heat Surge Signals Escalating Climate Crisis

No region escapes the warming, but the Arctic remains the outlier. The WMO expects winter temperatures there over the next five years to run roughly 2.8°C above the 1991–2020 average, more than triple the rate projected for the planet overall.

This tracks with what’s known as Arctic amplification, the well-documented pattern of the region warming faster than everywhere else. The fallout includes retreating sea ice, thawing permafrost, and ripple effects on weather systems well beyond the poles. The report specifically flags continued ice loss in the Barents Sea, Bering Sea, and Sea of Okhotsk.

Wetter Up North, Drier Down South

Rainfall is being reshaped too. The forecast points to wetter-than-normal winters across the northern high latitudes including the Sahel, northern Europe, Alaska, and Siberia along with increased rain in parts of the tropics. Meanwhile, several subtropical zones, the Amazon among them, are expected to turn drier. This split fits what scientists have predicted for a warming world, where a hotter atmosphere holds more moisture and disrupts long-standing rainfall patterns.

Caution behind the numbers

Beyond the headline numbers, the report is a reminder that climate change isn’t an abstract future problem, it’s already shaping decisions around farming, water access, infrastructure, public health, and disaster planning.

The assessment was compiled by the UK Met Office on the WMO’s behalf, pulling forecasts from 13 climate centers worldwide. Scientists say their confidence in these projections is high, since similar forecasting models have held up well against historical climate data. If the predictions are accurate, the back half of this decade may end up defined less by any single record and more by how this heat surge was effectively tackled.

Climate Risk to Data Centres is emerging as a critical challenge for India’s digital ambitions. A new global study warns that extreme heat and infrastructure disruptions could threaten planned data centres in some of the country’s fastest-growing technology hubs.

Data centres are becoming an indispensable part of modern economies. They are often promoted as projects that generate employment and boost local economies. Yet, their rapid expansion is increasingly colliding with the realities of rising climate risks.

A new report released by climate risk consultancy XDI warns that some of the world’s fastest-growing destinations for data centre investment are also emerging as climate-risk hotspots. India, one of the fastest-growing digital economies, ranks 11th globally in terms of physical climate risk to planned data centre infrastructure.

Climate Risk to Data Centres Challenges India’s Digital Ambitions

The report, 2026 Global Analysis of Planned Data Centres for Physical Climate Risk and Resilience, assessed 2,595 planned data centres worldwide. It analyzed the risks of direct physical damage from climate hazards, operational disruptions caused by extreme heat, and indirect threats due to failures in supporting infrastructure such as electricity, water supply, telecommunications, and transport.

Climate Risks to Data Centres & The Southern States

While India narrowly misses the top ten in overall physical risk rankings, the findings on heat-related disruptions are more concerning. States including Tamil Nadu, Telangana, and Karnataka have been identified among the top 30 regions worldwide with the highest projected operational disruption risk due to extreme heat for planned data centres.

The warning comes at a time when India is investing heavily in digital infrastructure to support artificial intelligence, cloud computing, and data storage. However, the study suggests that the long-term viability of these investments could depend as much on climate resilience as on technological capability.

Extreme Heat Threatens Operations

According to XDI, South Asia has one of the highest proportions of high-risk planned data centres globally. Facilities in the region are already classified as high risk under low-resilience construction settings, and this risk is projected to increase sharply by the end of the century. Europe is exposed to a 289% increase in average damage risk by 2100, even though it has only 7% of planned data centres at high risk.

“Much of the debate has focused on energy demand and water consumption. But physical climate risk is becoming an increasingly important consideration in its own right” Dr. Karl Mallon, Founder and Head of Science and Technology at XDI.

“The question is no longer simply where the next generation of digital infrastructure gets built, but whether those assets can remain operational, insurable, and economically resilient over their intended life,” he added.

Extreme heat is emerging as one of the biggest operational threats to data centres globally. Facilities depend on large-scale cooling systems to maintain servers and prevent outages. Rising temperatures increase cooling costs, place greater stress on electricity grids, and raise the risk of service interruptions.

The report finds that countries such as India, Brazil, Mexico, Indonesia, and Spain already record some of the highest projected operational disruption risks from heat, with more than 75% of analysed facilities classified as high risk.

A Window to Build Climate Resilience

The report also highlights the importance of indirect risks. A data centre may be designed to withstand extreme weather, but it remains vulnerable if surrounding infrastructure fails. Power outages, water shortages, damaged roads, or disruptions to telecommunications networks can all affect operations.

XDI noted that a separate analysis of data centres in Europe found that productivity losses become ten times higher when these indirect risks are considered alongside direct physical damage. The study, however, emphasises that future risks are not inevitable. Decisions taken during the planning stage, including site selection, engineering standards, and investments in climate resilience, can significantly reduce vulnerability before facilities are built. As global investment pours into AI and digital infrastructure, the report argues that climate resilience must become a central component of planning.

“Future risk is not fixed,” Mallon said. “Unlike existing infrastructure, planned data centres create a window of opportunity. Decisions made today may materially influence future performance, insurability, and operational continuity.” For India, where digital ambitions are expanding rapidly, the report serves as a reminder that the infrastructure powering the future must also be prepared for a warmer and more climate-uncertain world.

From record-breaking temperatures to growing support for renewable energy, India’s lived experience of climate change is shaping public opinion and demand for action.

Global warming in India has become a hard reality, but many people aren’t yet able to name what they are experiencing. The latest Climate Change in the Indian Mind survey by the Yale Program on Climate Change Communication and CVoter International reveals widespread public concern about climate-related extreme heat and strong support for India’s clean energy future. While about half of Indians are unclear about what the term “global warming” means, many recognize its effects in their daily lives.

The survey found that 84 percent of respondents have personally experienced the impacts of global warming. This finding comes as India faces increasingly intense heatwaves. In late April, 98 of the world’s 100 hottest cities were located in India, underscoring the scale of the country’s exposure to extreme heat.

“We have measured public opinion about climate change in India since 2011, and the data clearly show that Indians are increasingly experiencing, recognizing, and worrying about global warming,” said Dr. Anthony Leiserowitz, Yale University.

Global Warming in India and Climate Migration

Climate migration has become a serious problem in the country. One in four Indians has already moved or seriously considered moving because of heat and drought. Even though 125 of the world’s 145 most polluted cities are in India, the social systems meant to absorb shocks like these aren’t strong enough to meet the growing risks of climate change.

Even though India’s non-fossil-fuel installed energy capacity is over 52 percent, the country still depends on coal for 70 percent of its electricity generation.

Ambitious Targets and Limited Behavioural Change

The government has set a 2070 net-zero target and a 2047 “developed nation” goal, but evidence on what actually drives public behaviour at scale remains thin.

“Record-breaking heat waves have become a regular occurrence for most people in India. Yet most households lack the resources to cope, leaving the most vulnerable with nowhere to escape the heat,” said Dr. Jagadish Thaker, Senior Lecturer at the University of Queensland and lead author of the study.

Initiatives such as “Mission Lifestyle for Environment (LiFE)” have potential, but evidence remains limited on the most effective strategies to motivate high-impact behavioural changes among the public. Eighty percent of Indians say they follow environmental news, but only 38 percent have heard the specific term “global warming” in the media even once a week. Even when conversations are happening, aggressively mobilizing them into action is lagging behind.

Public Support for Climate Action and Economic Reality

Seventy-eight percent of Indians want the government to introduce better policies to ensure sustainability. Eighty-two percent would support replacing coal plants with solar and wind energy. Ninety-five percent said that a national program to train young people and women for jobs in renewable energy would be appreciated.

More than two-thirds of Indians (69 percent) say they would be willing to pay more for an electric scooter, motorcycle, or car instead of a petrol- or diesel-powered one to help reduce travel costs and global warming. Many Indians are attracted to electric vehicles (EVs) for their potential to lower both long-term travel costs and carbon emissions. However, limited income and unreliable electricity supply suggest that many simply cannot afford the upfront cost or rely on the necessary infrastructure to use them.

While Indians are deeply concerned about climate change and broadly support aggressive climate action, they continue to face significant challenges related to basic infrastructure and social support systems.