Why India Is Studying the Arctic to Understand Its Monsoon
As BRICS countries discuss closer cooperation in ocean and polar science, research is drawing attention to a distant climate connection: changes in Arctic sea ice may influence India’s monsoon. The emerging evidence could have implications for rainfall patterns, water security and climate forecasting.
Shrinking Arctic sea ice can influence atmospheric circulation linked to the Indian monsoon, according to recent research. Representational image. Image credit: Valeria Drozdova/Pexels
India’s growing interest in polar science comes as researchers are finding stronger links between changes in the Arctic and the climate systems that influence the country. The issue came into focus this month when India hosted the 8th BRICS Working Group Meeting on Ocean and Polar Science and Technology in Goa, bringing together scientists and officials from eight BRICS countries to discuss cooperation in ocean and polar research. The meeting covered scientific collaboration, technology and the use of research to address environmental challenges.
For India, the discussion has a direct climate relevance. The Arctic lies thousands of kilometres away, yet changes in its sea ice and atmosphere can affect large-scale circulation patterns that reach into Eurasia and interact with the South Asian monsoon.
That connection matters because India’s dependence on the monsoon leaves little room for major shifts in rainfall patterns. Agriculture, reservoirs, groundwater recharge, hydropower and flood risk all depend on when and where rain arrives.
The BRICS Working Group Meeting on Ocean and Polar Science and Technology was held in Goa from August 12–14, 2026, bringing together researchers and officials to discuss cooperation in ocean and polar research.
The Arctic–monsoon Link
Scientists have been investigating the relationship for several years. A 2026 study examined Arctic sea-ice extent and Indian summer monsoon rainfall using observations and reanalysis data from 1979 to 2022. It found an inverse relationship between Arctic sea ice and Indian monsoon rainfall, particularly during August and September. The researchers reported that periods of lower Arctic sea ice were associated with stronger rainfall over parts of India and changes in the spatial distribution of monsoon rainfall.
The finding does not mean that Arctic sea-ice loss directly determines India’s rainfall. The monsoon is influenced by several interacting systems, including ENSO, the Indian Ocean Dipole, Indian Ocean temperatures and atmospheric circulation.
The significance of the study lies in identifying the Arctic as one component of that larger system. Earlier research has produced similar evidence. A study published in the International Journal of Climatology examined Arctic sea ice and Indian precipitation between 1979 and 2021. It found significant relationships between Arctic sea-ice variability and precipitation over parts of India, with the strength of the relationship changing with the state of the Arctic Oscillation.
A 2024 study in Remote Sensing of Environment looked at different Arctic regions rather than treating the Arctic as a single system. It found significant relationships between spring sea-ice conditions in regions including the Central Arctic and Barents-Kara sector and Indian summer monsoon rainfall. The researchers linked these relationships to changes in atmospheric circulation across Eurasia.
Research in 2025 reached a similar conclusion about the importance of regional differences. It examined the Atlantic and Pacific sectors of the Arctic separately and found that their relationships with Indian rainfall differ. The study also examined interactions involving the North Atlantic Oscillation and ENSO.
Together, these studies point towards a climate system in which the Arctic can influence Indian rainfall through several atmospheric pathways.
How can Melting Sea Ice Affect Rainfall in India?
The mechanism begins with the loss of sea ice. Ice reflects a large proportion of incoming solar radiation. When ice retreats, darker ocean water is exposed and absorbs more heat. The reduction in sea ice also changes exchanges of heat and moisture between the ocean and atmosphere.
Those changes can alter atmospheric pressure patterns and generate or modify large-scale waves in the atmosphere. Some of these disturbances can propagate towards Eurasia and South Asia. The 2026 study found evidence that changes associated with Arctic sea ice can modify atmospheric circulation over South Asia, affecting the distribution of monsoon rainfall.
The relationship is particularly relevant during the later monsoon season. That is significant because rainfall in August and September contributes substantially to India’s seasonal water availability, while shifts in rainfall during this period can affect crops and reservoir management.
The research, however, does not establish a simple cause-and-effect relationship for every monsoon season. The influence of Arctic conditions depends on the state of other climate systems at the same time.
India’s Climate has Several Moving Parts
The Arctic is one part of a much larger climate network. The Indian Ocean has a direct influence on the monsoon through sea-surface temperatures, ocean heat and moisture transport. ENSO can alter atmospheric circulation across the tropics. The Indian Ocean Dipole can strengthen or weaken rainfall in different parts of India.
The Himalayas add another layer. Changes in snow cover and glaciers affect the timing of water entering major river systems. Research on the Brahmaputra basin has estimated that snowmelt contributes about 6% of annual basin flow, but its contribution rises to roughly 21% in the upper Brahmaputra. Climate projections indicate declining snowmelt even as changes in precipitation could increase total annual water yield.
This distinction matters for water management. A change in the source and timing of river water can affect agriculture and hydropower even when annual river discharge does not fall.
India therefore has several climate systems operating at different scales: the Arctic and its atmospheric influence, the Himalayan cryosphere, the Indian Ocean and the tropical systems that drive the monsoon. Understanding how they interact is becoming increasingly important for forecasting.
Why India Needs Long-term Polar Observations
India established Himadri, its first Arctic research station in Svalbard, in 2008. Indian research in the region now covers atmospheric science, glaciers, sea ice, marine ecosystems and other aspects of the Arctic environment.
The purpose is not limited to documenting polar warming. Long-term observations allow scientists to compare changes in Arctic conditions with atmospheric circulation, Himalayan processes and Indian rainfall. Satellite observations extend this coverage, while climate models can be used to test possible mechanisms.
This kind of research requires continuity. A single expedition cannot establish whether an Arctic change has influenced the Indian monsoon. Researchers need observations collected over decades, together with historical records and data from other parts of the climate system. That is where international scientific cooperation can become useful.
What BRICS Cooperation Could Add
The BRICS meeting in Goa brought ocean and polar science into the same discussion. That is relevant to India because its climate concerns span both ends of the Earth system. The country has interests in Arctic research, Antarctic research, Himalayan cryosphere studies and Indian Ocean observations.
Ocean and polar research also requires expensive infrastructure. Research vessels, autonomous instruments, satellite observations and specialised equipment are difficult for individual institutions to maintain at the scale needed for long-term climate research.
Cooperation can help researchers share observations, technology and expertise. The value of such partnerships, however, will depend on what they produce after the meetings: shared datasets, joint expeditions, sustained observations, modelling capacity and research that improves understanding of regional climate risks.
What This Means for India
The Arctic–monsoon relationship is scientifically significant, but it should not be turned into a prediction that Arctic sea-ice loss will automatically bring more rain to India. The evidence is more complicated. Different parts of the Arctic appear to influence India differently. The relationship changes with atmospheric circulation and interacts with ENSO, the Indian Ocean Dipole and other climate drivers. Some studies identify statistical associations, while others investigate the physical mechanisms that could explain them.
The next challenge is to determine how these interactions behave as the planet continues to warm. For India, that work has a practical purpose. Better understanding of the Arctic’s influence could improve seasonal monsoon prediction and help identify conditions associated with shifts in rainfall. Combined with observations from the Himalayas and Indian Ocean, it could also improve assessments of water availability and extreme rainfall.
The BRICS meeting provides the diplomatic and scientific setting for that work. The harder task begins after the meeting: collecting enough evidence to understand how changes at the top of the planet can alter weather and water far to the south.
EP Staff is the editorial team at EdPublica, an independent media organisation focused on science, education, environment and public policy. The team produces evidence-based news, features, explainers and analysis on issues that shape society and everyday life.
The Matterhorn rises above the Alpine landscape in Switzerland, with patches of snow visible on its slopes. Image Credit: Pexels
Switzerland’s iconic Matterhorn has lost almost all of its snow cover after an exceptionally hot and dry summer, offering a stark visual sign of the rapid changes unfolding across the Alps.
The 4,478-metre Matterhorn, one of Switzerland’s most recognisable peaks, was photographed in late September with large areas of bare rock where snow would normally be visible. Experts say the lack of snow at such high elevations is highly unusual for this time of year.
The Matterhorn’s appearance comes as Switzerland records another year of severe glacier melt. According to the Swiss Glacier Monitoring Network (GLAMOS) and the Swiss Academy of Sciences, Swiss glaciers lost more than 5 per cent of their ice volume in 2026, making it the second-largest annual percentage loss on record.
The scale of the loss is particularly significant because Switzerland’s glaciers have already shrunk dramatically. Nearly 20 per cent of the country’s glacier volume has disappeared in just five years, according to the latest monitoring data. Some smaller glaciers have disappeared completely.
Record heat and little winter snow
Scientists say the severe melt was driven by a combination of unusually low snowfall during the winter of 2025–26 and repeated heatwaves between May and September.
The winter was among Switzerland’s 10 least snowy since measurements began. During the summer, the freezing level remained above 4,000 metres for 76 days, more than twice the average and a Swiss record. By September, snow had disappeared even at elevations of around 3,500 metres.
Snow plays an important role in protecting glaciers. A layer of fresh snow reflects sunlight and shields the darker ice underneath from melting. It also provides the material needed to replenish glaciers over time. With less snow accumulating during winter, glaciers are left increasingly exposed to summer heat.
The consequences have been substantial. The average thickness of individual Swiss glaciers declined by between 2.5 and 4 metres this year, while some glacier tongues lost as much as 10 metres of ice. The Aletsch, Rhône, Allalin and Clariden glaciers recorded their greatest melt on record in 2026.
More than a changing landscape
The disappearance of snow and ice is not only transforming the appearance of the Alps. Between July and September, Swiss glaciers released around 2.2 trillion litres of water as they melted more than four times the annual drinking-water consumption of Swiss households. For now, this meltwater can help ease summer water shortages, but scientists warn that this benefit will diminish as the glaciers continue to shrink.
The Alps are also an important source of water for major European rivers, including the Rhine, Rhône, Po and Danube. Switzerland also relies heavily on hydropower, making changes in glacier and snowmelt relevant beyond the mountains themselves.
The snow-free Matterhorn therefore represents more than an unusual photograph. It is one visible sign of a much larger transformation in the Alpine environment that scientists say is being accelerated by rising temperatures and changing snowfall patterns.
Climate Change Is Already on Your Dinner Table. Here Is How It Got There
Climate change is already affecting what food costs. From heatwaves and droughts to weaker crop yields, extreme weather is disrupting food markets and making staples such as potatoes, tomatoes and other vegetables more price-sensitive.
A farmer works among young rice seedlings in a waterlogged field, highlighting the vulnerability of agriculture to extreme weather and changing rainfall patterns. Image Credit:Pexels
From heatwaves in the field to prices in the market, extreme weather is changing what food costs. Perishable foods such as vegetables are especially exposed, and India’s coming potato season is one to watch.
What does climate change have to do with the tomatoes in your salad or the potatoes on your plate? More than it may seem.
Climate change is not only about rising temperatures or intense rainfall. Its effects also move through farms and food markets and, eventually, into our kitchens. Heatwaves, droughts and uneven weather are disrupting the food system. People already stretched by work and the cost of living then find that food has become dearer still.
The result is a climate story that is easy to overlook because it shows up in an ordinary place: the dinner table.
A growing body of research is beginning to map the journey from climate shock to food price. A September 2026 analysis by Zero Carbon Analytics found that extreme climate events are raising agricultural risks, disrupting food systems and pushing up food prices. It also highlights the vulnerability of perishable, nutrient-dense foods, naming tomatoes in the Mediterranean among the affected commodities.
That matters because the climate-food connection is not simply about whether there will be enough calories on the planet. It is also about what those calories cost and what people can afford to eat.
The problem starts in the field
A 2021 study in the Journal of Environmental Economics and Management examined global yields of major calorie crops, using gridded agricultural data and climate-model projections. The researchers found that, without adaptation beyond what farmers have historically managed, climate change could cut global crop yields by 3–12 per cent by the middle of the century and by 11–25 per cent by the end of it, under a vigorous warming scenario. They also found that farmers’ historical adaptation has only slightly softened the effects of weather shocks across broad regions.
That does not mean every crop, country or farm will see the same decline. Impacts vary with crop type, location, irrigation and local conditions. But the research points to a larger problem: agriculture cannot be separated from a changing climate. The study covers staple calorie crops rather than vegetables, and the humble potato offers a closer example.
Why potatoes are vulnerable
Potatoes may look ordinary, but growing them depends on a narrow combination of temperature and water. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) cites modelling that projects global potato-yield reductions of 2–6 per cent by 2055, though the impact varies considerably between regions. In some marginal growing areas the projected fall in tuber dry weight is much larger, while some high-yielding environments could see gains.
The same assessment cites modelling in which potato yields fall by about 4.6 per cent for every 1°C rise in temperature, and by about 2 per cent for every 10 per cent fall in rainfall at non-irrigated sites.
For India, this makes the coming potato season worth watching.
A 2025 study in Environmental Research Letters found that potato prices in India rose by about 81 per cent between April and June 2024, compared with the same period a year earlier, after an unusually severe heatwave in May. Onion prices rose by 89 per cent over the same period.
Farmers harvesting potatoes.Image credit:Pexels
This year’s southwest monsoon has been weak. India had received about 86 per cent of its normal rainfall by 29 August, according to India Meteorological Department data, and Bihar, an important potato-producing state, was running about 40 per cent below normal at the end of the month.
Analysts caution, however, that this does not amount to a confirmed national loss in potato production. The main risk is what the shortfall leaves behind: lower soil moisture, weaker groundwater recharge and higher irrigation needs before the winter crop is planted.
Nor have the shops felt it yet. Official consumer-price data for August 2026 show potato prices 13.14 per cent lower than a year earlier and tomato prices 31.09 per cent lower, although onions were 48.27 per cent dearer.
That distinction matters. Climate science can identify elevated risks; it does not mean every weather event automatically produces a specific crop loss or price rise.
How climate shocks reach the market
Tomatoes illustrate another part of the problem. Fresh vegetables are particularly exposed to climate shocks because they are perishable and have limited storage windows.
Zero Carbon Analytics counts tomatoes among the foods whose prices have been affected by recent climate extremes, and points to wider evidence that extreme weather can produce sharp price movements in nutrient-dense foods.
The Environmental Research Letters study also examined reported food-price spikes associated with extreme heat, drought and heavy rainfall. The examples are striking. South Korean cabbage was 70 per cent dearer in September 2024 than a year earlier. Vegetable prices in China rose 30 per cent between June and August 2024. In the United States, extreme heat and drought in California and Arizona contributed to an 80 per cent year-on-year rise in vegetable producer prices by November 2022.
In southern Europe, drought was associated with a 50 per cent year-on-year rise in olive-oil prices by January 2024. Global cocoa prices rose by almost 300 per cent by April 2024 compared with a year earlier, after a heatwave in Ghana and Côte d’Ivoire.
These figures should not be read as saying that climate change alone caused every increase. The researchers note that demand, transport disruptions, speculation and other socioeconomic factors can also shape the final price. But their analysis shows how extreme climate conditions can trigger food-price shocks.
From the farm to inflation
The consequences do not necessarily stop at the market. Research by economists at the European Central Bank and the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, published in Communications Earth & Environment in 2024, examined how global warming and extreme heat can feed into inflation. Under projected 2035 conditions, the study estimates that annual food inflation could rise by 0.92–3.23 percentage points a year on average globally, depending on emissions scenarios, climate models and empirical specifications.
The researchers also estimate that Europe’s extreme summer heat of 2022 raised food inflation by 0.43–0.93 percentage points, and that warming projected for 2035 would amplify the effect of similar extremes by 30–50 per cent.
When food prices rise, people on lower incomes have less room to absorb the increase. The Environmental Research Letters study notes that households may respond by spending more of their income on food, buying less food or switching to cheaper and often less nutritious options.
What ends up on the plate?
The World Food Programme (WFP) estimated on 5 August that the 2026–27 El Niño could push at least 49 million more people into acute food insecurity by the end of 2027, across the 45 countries it assessed. Those are countries already considered food insecure and where El Niño is expected to have a significant effect. The number of acutely food-insecure people in them could rise from about 225 million to 274 million.
And as the climate warms, the concern is not simply whether a tomato or potato will disappear from the plate.
It is whether climate shocks will make food production more uncertain, prices more volatile and nutritious diets harder to afford.
A lone pedestrian walks through a light drizzle on a Kerala road as India records its driest southwest monsoon in 11 years. Representational image. Image credit: DoLiks/Pexels
India has ended the 2026 southwest monsoon with its lowest seasonal rainfall, driest monsoon in 11 years, with the country receiving 759.4 mm between June and September against a long-period average of 868.6 mm. The 12.6% deficit makes this the weakest monsoon since 2015 and the fourth-lowest since 2001, according to the India Meteorological Department (IMD).
The national figure, however, masks a much more uneven rainfall season. While some parts of the country received close to normal rainfall, large parts of eastern, northeastern and southern India experienced significant shortages.
Rainfall Shortfall Concentrated in Regions
The East and Northeast region recorded rainfall at about 74% of its long-period average, while South Peninsular India received about 76% of its average rainfall. The East and Northeast had their lowest southwest monsoon rainfall since 1901, while South Peninsular India recorded its second-lowest monsoon rainfall since 2001.
Of India’s 36 meteorological subdivisions, 17 recorded deficient rainfall, covering around 42% of the country’s geographical area. Another 18 subdivisions recorded normal rainfall. At the district level, 282 districts, or around 38% of the country’s districts, ended the season with deficient rainfall.
The uneven distribution matters because a national rainfall average does not translate into the same water availability everywhere. A district that receives normal rainfall cannot compensate for prolonged deficits in another region where agriculture, reservoirs or groundwater depend heavily on the monsoon.
Driest Monsoon: June’s Deficit Set the Tone
The shortfall was particularly pronounced at the beginning of the season. June rainfall was 35.4% below normal, followed by a 16.3% deficit in August and a 7.6% deficit in September. July was the exception, recording around 1% above normal rainfall.
The season also saw unusually frequent low-pressure systems. Fourteen such systems formed during the monsoon, producing 77 low-pressure-system days compared with the normal 57. According to IMD Director General Mrutyunjay Mohapatra, these systems helped prevent the seasonal deficit from becoming larger.
This uneven pattern is important for agriculture. A season can produce a near-normal rainfall total while still leaving crops exposed if rain arrives too late, falls in short intense spells or remains absent during critical stages of crop growth.
What does it Mean for Agriculture?
The immediate concern now shifts from kharif crops to the water conditions entering the rabi season. Lower rainfall can reduce soil moisture and leave rain-fed farming regions more dependent on stored water or irrigation. The impact will vary by crop and region rather than follow the national rainfall deficit directly.
The IMD had warned ahead of the monsoon that below-normal rainfall could create challenges for agriculture, water availability and hydropower, while increasing pressure on drinking-water resources.
Ripening paddy crops amid India’s driest monsoon in 11 years, with the 2026 southwest monsoon ending 12.6% below normal. Representational image. Image credit: Quang Nguyen Vinh/Pexels
The agricultural impact is already visible in some indicators. Kharif sowing stood at 110.8 million hectares as of September 25, about 1.2% below the previous year, while rice acreage was down 3.6%. Pulses, meanwhile, recorded an increase in acreage. The next concern is therefore not simply how much rain India received, but how much usable water remains available for farms, households and other sectors through the coming months.
El Niño Added Pressure
The weak monsoon developed alongside El Niño conditions in the tropical Pacific. The IMD had anticipated this risk before the season, forecasting in May that 2026 monsoon rainfall could be around 90% of the long-period average, with a model error of ±4%. It also gave a 60% probability of rainfall being in the deficient category.
By the end of the season, the IMD said El Niño conditions had strengthened and contributed to the rainfall deficit. The weather system is expected to persist into the coming months, although its influence on rainfall varies across regions and seasons.
The relationship between El Niño and the Indian monsoon is not absolute. Government data notes that, since 1950, there have been 16 El Niño years, of which seven were associated with below-normal Indian monsoon rainfall. The strength and timing of El Niño also influence its effect. The monsoon has ended, but the water story has not
The IMD expects October rainfall to remain below normal nationally, adding another layer of uncertainty after an already deficient southwest monsoon.
For India, the significance of the 2026 monsoon will therefore extend beyond the final 12.6% deficit. The more important questions are regional: which reservoirs have been replenished, where groundwater has taken a hit, how rain-fed farmers are entering the rabi season and whether drinking-water systems have enough buffer for a potentially drier post-monsoon period. The season is a reminder that rainfall totals alone cannot describe India’s water security. What matters on the ground is where the rain fell, when it fell and how much of it could be stored and used after the clouds cleared.