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Iran–Israel–US Conflict Impact on India’s Economy & Energy

Iran–Israel–US conflict impact on India threatens oil imports, Strait of Hormuz trade routes, inflation, and the country’s clean energy transition goals.

Dipin Damodharan

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The Iran–Israel–US conflict impact on India covers oil imports through the Strait of Hormuz, trade disruptions, rising crude prices, inflation risks, and clean energy transition challenges.
The Iran–Israel–US conflict impact on India covers oil imports through the Strait of Hormuz, trade disruptions, rising crude prices, inflation risks, and clean energy transition challenges. Image credit: Zifeng Xiong/Pexels

Iran–Israel–US conflict impact on India could raise crude prices, disrupt trade, widen the current account deficit, and pressure energy security.

The tremors began far from India’s shores. US and Israeli strikes on Iran, followed by retaliatory actions, have redrawn fault lines across West Asia. But in New Delhi, in oil refineries along the western coast, and in rice mandis across Haryana and Punjab, the aftershocks are already being felt.

“US and Israel attacks on Iran, and subsequent counter attacks have exposed a new wave of geopolitical risks,” notes a policy briefing from Climate Trends, reviewed by EdPublica. For India — bound to Israel by strategic ties and to Iran by history and geography — the moment is fraught with complexity.

At the heart of the unfolding crisis lies a narrow maritime artery: the Strait of Hormuz.

The Strait of Hormuz: India’s Energy Lifeline

Nearly a quarter of the world’s crude oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz — a chokepoint linking West Asian producers to global markets. For South Asia, the dependency is sharper. Around 40% of the total crude oil consumption of India, China, Japan and South Korea transits this passage.

India imports nearly 90% of its crude oil. Of its daily imports, 2.5–2.7 million barrels per day — largely from Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, Iraq and the UAE — pass through these contested waters.

The risks are no longer theoretical. According to reports, Iran has been relaying warnings over VHF radio to ships, cautioning that passage may not be guaranteed. Insurance pricing for shipping has risen by 50% overnight. Freight rates are climbing. The Director General of Shipping has issued a circular advising stakeholders not to deploy Indian crews in Iran.

Map view of the Strait of Hormuz showing major oil shipping lanes, illustrating the Iran–Israel–US conflict impact on India’s energy imports and trade routes.
Image credit:Jacques Descloitres, MODIS Land Rapid Response Team, NASA/GSFC

If Iran’s 3.3 million barrels per day production is disrupted, oil prices could rise 9–15%, pushing crude from a base of $70 per barrel to roughly $76–81.

For India, the impact would be “more price driven and not volume driven”. Yet price shocks ripple quickly — widening the current account deficit, weakening the rupee and feeding domestic inflation.

Vivek Y. Kelkar, researcher working at the intersection of geo-economics and sustainability, warns: “Much depends on how long the conflict endures and whether risks to the Persian Gulf and the Strait of Hormuz persist… For India, the impact would be indirect but significant. With nearly 90 percent import dependence, every $10 per barrel rise increases the annual import bill by about $13–14 billion, widening the current account deficit, pressuring the rupee and adding to inflation.”

He adds that China — which buys roughly 90% of Iran’s crude exports — could pivot more aggressively toward Russian, Iraqi, Saudi and West African grades if Iranian volumes shrink. “If Beijing pivots toward the same Russian or Atlantic Basin supplies that India relies on for diversification, India’s energy security could become more expensive and more contested. The likely outcome is not deep scarcity, but tighter global balances, higher prices and diminished negotiating leverage for Indian refiners.”

From Oil Tanks to Rice Fields

The consequences extend well beyond petrol pumps.

In the weeks before the conflict escalated, Iranian importers had placed large orders for basmati rice, pushing local prices up by about Rs 10 per kg. Iran accounts for roughly 25% of India’s basmati exports; Iraq another 20%. Together, that’s over 2 million tonnes valued at more than $2 billion annually.

Uncertainty now looms over these trade flows. Tea exports too may take a hit — nearly Rs 7 billion worth was exported to Iran in 2024–25.

More broadly, Middle Eastern countries including Iran, Bahrain, Kuwait, Qatar and the UAE account for bilateral trade worth about $117.32 billion, with the UAE alone contributing nearly $100 billion. Any regional escalation directly threatens these ties.

The UAE Factor: A Stable Hub Under Strain

Dubai has long been viewed as West Asia’s insulated commercial gateway — a financial and logistics hub even when politics elsewhere burned. But the conflict “fundamentally alters Dubai’s longstanding reputation as a politically insulated financial and trade hub”. India and the UAE have been expanding cooperation in renewables, green hydrogen and critical minerals. The India–UAE Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement (CEPA), signed in 2022, marked India’s first such accord in the MENA region. Escalation now risks slowing joint ventures and technology exchanges just as clean transition investments were gathering pace.

“India’s policy of strategic autonomy has so far helped it navigate the choppy waters of geopolitics but the balancing act has become increasingly tough. The conflict in west Asia and its repercussions raise the risks to its supply chains, test energy security and increase insurance costs and fuel inflation if energy prices remain elevated, as is expected if the Strait of Hormuz is blocked… Yet, despite the rising risks India’s economy and markets are relatively better placed to ride this geopolitical storm,” Archana Chaudhary, Associate Director at Climate Trends, notes.

A Clean Energy Imperative, Not Just a Climate Goal

The crisis may also sharpen India’s clean energy calculus. Elevated oil costs increase dollar demand, typically putting downward pressure on the rupee. Costlier fuel filters into transportation, logistics and eventually food prices. Renewable energy supply chains — including critical minerals — could also be disrupted, as significant shipping traffic flows through Hormuz

Yet analysts see opportunity in the turbulence. “The recent strikes only reinforce the validity of India’s long-standing principle of strategic autonomy. In an increasingly volatile West Asian landscape, the wisdom of accelerating our clean energy ambitions becomes even more apparent for energy security. Reducing dependence on imported conventional energy sources, i.e. oil and gas, through rapid deployment of clean technologies is no longer just a climate imperative but a strategic necessity… In this fractured geopolitical order, India must deepen the momentum toward clean energy transition and technological self-reliance to insulate its growth trajectory from external shocks,” Aarti Khosla, Director, Climate Trends, argues.

Vaibhav Chaturvedi, Senior Fellow at CEEW, echoes the urgency: “The US-Iran war doesn’t bode well for the global energy economy. In the short run, we can expect an increase in oil prices. In the medium term, if the war drags, there would be a negative impact on the global economy. The event will undoubtedly create headwinds for India’s economy. India will do well to leverage its relationships to access cheaper oil in this scenario. This is a moment to bring investments to ramp up plans to scale up electrification of the power and transport sector faster as the ultimate solution to energy security.”

Duttatreya Das, Energy Analyst–Asia at Ember, calls this a turning point: “The past few months have been challenging for India’s crude supplies—first the shift away from discounted Russian Urals to avoid U.S. tariffs, and now the potential volume impact from disruptions in West Asia. While these disruptions may be short-term, India cannot simply afford to remain hostage to geopolitical volatility… Moments like these offer an opportunity to recalibrate its mobility policy, through electrification and a faster expansion of ethanol blending in the near term.”

A Moment of Strategic Testing

In South Block, a Cabinet meeting chaired by the Prime Minister signals the seriousness of the moment. OPEC has indicated it may adjust production to maintain market stability. India’s long-held doctrine of strategic autonomy — balancing relationships across rival blocs — is now under stress. After US pressure restricted purchases of Russian oil, India diversified more toward Gulf suppliers, inadvertently deepening its exposure to Hormuz-linked risks. Though it imports from over 40 countries, geography and geopolitics cannot be entirely diversified away.

The immediate reality is uncertainty: higher freight, rising insurance, volatile crude, jittery exporters.

The longer-term question is whether this crisis accelerates a structural pivot. In the shadows of tankers and warships, India’s energy transition debate is no longer abstract. It is entangled with inflation, trade, currency stability and food security.

As oil flows through a narrow strait watched by rival navies, India’s policymakers face a widening strategic horizon — where climate ambition, economic resilience and geopolitical balancing are no longer separate conversations, but one.

Dipin Damodharan is an award-winning journalist, editor and media entrepreneur, and Co-founder and Editor-in-Chief of EdPublica, an independent global media platform covering education, science, research, innovation, climate and public policy. With more than a decade of experience in journalism, he has worked across print, digital and multimedia media. His reporting explores science, climate, sustainability and the social impact of research and innovation. His work has been recognised by the Solutions Journalism Network and other journalism organisations.

Sustainable Energy

India’s Clean Energy Research May Not Be Keeping Pace with Its Manufacturing Ambitions, Finds Study

A study of India’s publicly funded clean-energy research examines whether investments in solar power, batteries and other technologies are aligned with the country’s ambitions for domestic manufacturing and technological development.

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Rows of blue solar panels under a partly cloudy sky, illustrating solar energy and clean-energy technology.
Solar photovoltaic technology is a major focus of India’s publicly funded clean-energy research, according to a new study by the Sustainable Futures Collaborative and Tufts University.Image credit:Pexels

India’s public investment in clean-energy research is concentrated in established technologies, while funding for manufacturing innovation and large-scale technology development remains a challenge, according to a new study examining the country’s publicly funded research, development and demonstration (RD&D) activities.

The report, How Can India Align Its Clean Energy Innovations with Its Ambitions? An Assessment of Public RD&D Investments and Activities, by the Sustainable Futures Collaborative (SFC) and the Climate Policy Lab at Tufts University, maps 1,359 publicly funded clean-energy projects active or initiated between the financial years 2019 and 2024.

The projects span more than 90 institutions and account for approximately ₹1,443 crore in declared funding. The study finds that India has developed a substantial public research portfolio, but raises questions about whether its funding structures and research priorities are sufficiently aligned with the country’s ambitions for domestic manufacturing and technological leadership.

The findings echo concerns raised in other research on India’s clean-energy supply chains and innovation financing. Together, these studies highlight a challenge that extends beyond funding scientific research: ensuring that promising technologies can progress from laboratory development to demonstration, competitive manufacturing and commercial deployment.

Solar and storage dominate the research landscape

Renewable energy accounts for a substantial share of the mapped research portfolio. The SFC–Tufts study identifies 421 renewable-energy projects receiving approximately ₹580 crore, while another 333 projects in other power and energy-storage technologies account for around ₹492 crore.

Solar photovoltaic technology alone received approximately ₹401 crore across 234 projects, making it a major focus of public clean-energy research.

The portfolio also includes research on batteries, hydrogen, electric mobility, energy efficiency and carbon capture, utilisation and storage. However, the distribution of projects and funding varies across these areas, with electric mobility receiving less attention than solar energy, batteries and hydrogen.

The concentration of research in established technologies reflects India’s immediate clean-energy priorities. Solar power and battery storage are central to expanding renewable electricity and managing its intermittency. Research that improves the performance, reliability and affordability of these technologies can contribute directly to deployment.

India’s operating conditions also create specific research requirements. High temperatures, dust, humidity, price-sensitive demand and constraints in accessing materials and equipment can make technologies developed elsewhere less suitable without adaptation. Research into battery thermal management, solar-module degradation and affordable charging infrastructure can help technologies perform more effectively under Indian conditions.

However, the report argues that research addressing immediate deployment needs must also be considered alongside the longer-term development of domestic manufacturing capabilities and new technological solutions.

Incremental innovation dominates public funding

One of the study’s central findings is that approximately 81 per cent of the mapped projects can be classified as incremental innovations. These projects primarily seek to improve or adapt technologies that are already commercially established.

Such research is not necessarily a weakness. Incremental improvements can reduce costs, improve efficiency and make technologies more reliable in local conditions. The concern is whether the existing portfolio provides sufficient support for other forms of innovation needed to strengthen manufacturing and develop technological leadership.

The report finds that deployment-and-diffusion projects account for approximately 53 per cent of projects and 64 per cent of declared funding. Technology-leadership projects represent around 14 per cent of projects and 15 per cent of funding.

Rows of blue solar panels under a partly cloudy sky, illustrating solar energy and clean-energy technology.

Solar panels under the backdrop of a clear sky.Image credit:Pexels

Process-oriented research receives a smaller share. Projects classified under manufacturing competitiveness account for approximately 28 per cent of projects and 18 per cent of funding, while projects targeting major changes in production processes represent around 5 per cent of projects and 3 per cent of funding.

A 2024 report by the Council on Energy, Environment and Water (CEEW), Strengthening India’s Clean Energy Supply Chains, examines manufacturing competitiveness across solar photovoltaics, wind turbines and lithium-ion batteries. It explores the supply-chain segments that matter for developing domestic industrial capabilities.

Read alongside the SFC–Tufts assessment, the CEEW report provides a broader perspective on the challenge of connecting research priorities with the industrial capabilities needed to manufacture clean-energy technologies in India.

Small grants and fragmented funding pose challenges

The SFC–Tufts study also highlights the size and distribution of research grants.Around 68 per cent of projects with declared budgets receive less than ₹50 lakh each. The median project size across technology categories ranges from approximately ₹33 lakh to ₹39 lakh.

These grants can support investigator-led research, early-stage experiments and improvements to existing technologies. However, projects involving pilot manufacturing, demonstration facilities, process development and commercial-scale validation may require different funding arrangements and substantially larger investments.

The report identifies differences in the funding approaches of government institutions. The Department of Science and Technology accounts for more than half of the mapped projects, reflecting its support for a large number of investigator-led grants. The Ministry of New and Renewable Energy supports fewer projects through comparatively larger programmes.

The study also finds that the 20 leading institutions account for close to 70 per cent of mapped projects.

These patterns matter because clean-energy innovation involves several stages, from scientific research and engineering to manufacturing, testing and commercial deployment. A funding structure suited to an early-stage research project may not be sufficient for a technology approaching industrial use.

An earlier CEEW study, Financing Clean Energy Innovation, examined the financing challenges associated with advancing clean-energy innovations. Its focus on financing complements the SFC–Tufts report’s emphasis on funding structures and the need to support different stages of technological development.

Technologies may require continued support after the initial research phase, particularly when they need to be demonstrated, tested and refined before becoming commercially viable. If funding does not adequately cover these stages, innovations can struggle to move from technical promise to market adoption.

Aligning research with industrial priorities

India already has policy mechanisms intended to promote clean-energy research and technology development. The Ministry of New and Renewable Energy’s Renewable Energy Research and Technology Development Programme includes objectives related to indigenous technology development, cost reduction, demonstration and collaboration with industry.

The question, therefore, is not simply whether India funds clean-energy research, but whether its research portfolio and funding mechanisms are appropriately structured to meet different objectives.

The SFC–Tufts report recommends clearer priorities across three broad goals: accelerating the deployment of existing technologies, strengthening domestic manufacturing competitiveness and developing technological leadership in emerging areas.

The study has limitations. Budget information was unavailable for around 16 per cent of mapped projects, while start-year information was missing for approximately 39 per cent. Private-sector innovation also falls outside its scope. Its findings therefore reflect the publicly documented research portfolio, rather than the entirety of India’s clean-energy innovation ecosystem.

Nevertheless, the findings raise an important policy question as India pursues both clean-energy deployment and domestic manufacturing: whether public research investment is supporting the entire journey from scientific discovery and technological improvement to competitive production and commercial scale.

The challenge is not simply to fund more research. It is to ensure that promising research can progress into technologies that India can manufacture, improve and deploy at scale.

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Sustainable Energy

India Tightens CAFE Norms as Fuel Demand and Car Sales Rise

India’s new CAFE norms tighten fleet fuel-efficiency targets from 2027, with implications for petrol cars, hybrids, EVs and the country’s oil demand.

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Passenger cars driving through a busy city intersection, illustrating India’s growing road transport and fuel demand
India’s new CAFE norms will tighten fuel-efficiency targets for passenger vehicles from April 2027. Image credit: Kaique Rocha/Pexels

India will make carmakers meet stricter fuel-efficiency targets from April 2027, as the country tries to contain fuel consumption from a growing passenger-vehicle market. The new Corporate Average Fuel Economy (CAFE) norms will apply from April 1, 2027, to March 31, 2032. The fleet-average fuel-consumption target will fall from 3.996 litres per 100 km in 2027–28 to 3.3273 litres per 100 km in 2031–32.

That is a 16.7% improvement in the regulatory benchmark over the five-year period. The change matters because India’s demand for road fuel is rising while the country continues to import more than 90% of the crude oil it uses. Cars that consume less fuel can reduce the amount of petrol and diesel needed to keep the growing vehicle fleet on the road.
The new rules also give manufacturers more room to use electric vehicles, hybrids, alternative fuels and other efficiency technologies to meet their targets.

CAFE Norms: Why India Needs to Use Less Fuel

India’s passenger-vehicle market has changed considerably over the past decade. SUVs and larger cars have become more common, while overall vehicle ownership continues to rise. Every additional petrol or diesel vehicle adds to fuel demand. A more fuel-efficient fleet can slow that increase, even when the number of vehicles continues to grow.

The country’s dependence on imported crude makes this particularly relevant. India imports more than 90% of its crude oil, so higher oil consumption also means greater exposure to international oil prices and supply disruptions. The Bureau of Energy Efficiency introduced CAFE standards in 2017 with three objectives: reduce fuel consumption, lower carbon dioxide emissions and reduce dependence on imported oil. The latest notification tightens those requirements for the next five years.

CAFE: Not Same Mileage Target for Every Car

CAFE works differently from a rule that says every vehicle must deliver a particular number of kilometres per litre. It measures the average fuel consumption of a manufacturer’s passenger-vehicle fleet. The calculation takes sales volumes and vehicle weight into account. A company selling fuel-hungry SUVs, for instance, can improve its fleet average by selling more efficient cars, hybrids or electric vehicles.

That gives manufacturers several ways to meet the requirement. They can improve engines and transmissions, reduce energy losses, introduce hybrid systems, sell more EVs or use technologies that receive concessions under the CAFE framework.

What does the 16.7% Improvement Mean?

The 16.7% figure refers to the regulatory fleet benchmark. It does not mean that every new car will use 16.7% less petrol or diesel. Actual fuel consumption depends on the vehicle and how it is driven. Traffic, road conditions, speed, air-conditioning use and driving behaviour all affect mileage. The target applies to the manufacturer’s fleet as a whole.

The new framework also changes the vehicle-weight calculation. The reference weight will rise from 1,082 kg to 1,229 kg. The target curve has been revised so that heavier vehicles face greater efficiency requirements than lighter ones. That change is relevant to India’s passenger-vehicle market, where larger SUVs now account for a substantial share of sales.

Why EVs can Help Manufacturers Meet CAFE Targets

Electric vehicles have a direct advantage under a fuel-economy regulation because they do not consume petrol or diesel.

CAFE Norms: ICCT chart showing projected battery-electric vehicle penetration across bus, heavy-duty truck, medium-duty truck, light commercial vehicle and passenger car segments in India for 2030 and 2040 under three scenarios
ICCT projections show battery-electric vehicle adoption rising across India’s vehicle segments by 2040, with the highest penetration under the “Aligned with Viksit Bharat” scenario. Source: ICCT

A manufacturer can therefore improve its fleet-average performance by increasing the share of EVs it sells. Hybrids can also reduce the average fuel consumption of a fleet.

The International Council on Clean Transportation (ICCT) has examined this relationship in its latest study of India’s vehicle market. Its 2026 analysis finds that stronger fuel-economy standards can support faster EV adoption and reduce oil consumption when the two policies move together. There is some evidence from India’s earlier CAFE rules as well.

An ICCT assessment of CAFE Phase II found that manufacturers relying on conventional efficiency improvements or CNG had difficulty meeting the targets. Manufacturers with significant EV sales, including Tata and MG, were able to meet the requirements with larger margins. The experience shows how a fleet standard can influence the technology choices made by manufacturers.

Stronger Standards Could Reduce Oil Demand

ICCT’s latest study models India’s road-transport oil demand under several policy pathways through 2040. In its business-as-usual scenario, road-transport oil consumption reaches about 197 million tonnes of oil equivalent (Mtoe) in 2040. An alternative scenario combines stronger fuel-efficiency standards with faster EV adoption. Under that pathway, oil consumption is about 146 Mtoe in 2040.

The difference is roughly 51 Mtoe. These are modelled scenarios, not forecasts. They show the scale of the difference that could emerge if India combines tighter efficiency rules with faster electrification. For India, lower oil demand would also reduce the amount of crude that has to be imported to supply road transport.

Technologies Beyond EVs

Electric vehicles are only one part of the new framework. The norms recognise 12 fuel-conservation technologies, compared with four under the earlier framework. These include technologies such as high-efficiency air-conditioning systems, advanced glazing and solar-reflective paints.

Each eligible technology can receive a concession of 1 gram of CO₂ per kilometre, subject to a maximum of 9 grams of CO₂ per kilometre. The framework also includes a Carbon Neutrality Factor for ethanol-blended petrol, biofuels and compressed biogas. This allows manufacturers to use a wider combination of technologies and fuels when working towards their fleet targets.

Super Credits Could Shape How Manufacturers Respond

The rules provide additional regulatory benefits for battery-electric vehicles, range-extended EVs, plug-in hybrids, strong hybrids and flex-fuel vehicles through volume derogation factors and super credits. These mechanisms give low-emission vehicles greater weight in the compliance calculation.

There is a trade-off, however. ICCT’s latest analysis points out that generous super credits can allow manufacturers to meet fleet targets with a relatively small share of EVs while continuing to sell less-efficient combustion-engine vehicles. That makes the treatment of these credits important as EV sales increase.

What Manufacturer Misses the Target?

The rules give companies several ways to manage compliance. Manufacturers can operate within two- or three-year compliance blocks. Credits can be carried forward, traded or exchanged. The Bureau of Energy Efficiency will also operate a buyout mechanism.

The system therefore gives manufacturers some flexibility in how they meet the target. It also means the effect of the regulation may not be visible in a single year’s sales figures.

Will Consumers Notice the Change?

Some changes could be visible in the showroom. Manufacturers may introduce more efficient petrol engines, expand hybrid offerings or increase the number of EVs in their portfolios. Other changes, such as improvements to air-conditioning systems or vehicle design, may be harder for buyers to notice.

The immediate effect on fuel bills is less straightforward. A regulatory improvement of 16.7% cannot be translated directly into a 16.7% saving for a driver. CAFE is calculated across a manufacturer’s fleet, while real-world mileage varies from one vehicle and driver to another. Its effect is likely to appear gradually as new vehicles replace older ones.

CAFE: One Part Larger Transport Shift

Tighter fuel-efficiency standards can reduce the amount of fuel consumed by each vehicle. They do not determine how many vehicles people buy or how much they drive. Public transport, urban planning, vehicle electrification and the availability of alternative fuels will also influence India’s future oil demand.

For the automobile industry, however, the direction is clear. The average efficiency of the vehicles sold in India will have to improve over the next five years. The new CAFE norms give manufacturers several routes to get there. They can make combustion engines more efficient, sell more hybrids and EVs, use recognised fuel-saving technologies or combine these approaches. For India, the reason for tightening the rules is straightforward. More vehicles on the road do not have to mean a matching increase in fuel consumption. The next five years will show how much the industry can narrow that gap.

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Sustainable Energy

How Wind Turbines Could Produce More Power From the Same Wind

Researchers find that adjusting wind turbine blade speed when machines are misaligned with the wind could help increase power output from existing turbines.

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Wind turbines operating across a dry, hilly landscape under a clear blue sky.
A wind farm stretches across a dry hillside, with dozens of turbines operating at different angles to the wind. Image credit: CARLOSCRUZ ARTEGRAFIA/Pexels

A wind turbine does not always face the wind squarely. Wind direction changes, turbulence moves through a wind farm and neighbouring turbines disturb the air. Even when a turbine is constantly adjusting its position, there can be an angle between the rotor and the incoming wind. That angle changes how much power the turbine can produce.

Researchers from MIT, Queen’s University, Princeton University and Penn State University have now measured that effect under controlled laboratory conditions. Their experiments found that the blade-tip speed that produces maximum power changes when a turbine is misaligned with the wind. The finding could lead to different control strategies for turbines already operating in wind farms. But the experiment did not test those strategies on a commercial wind farm or demonstrate additional revenue in the field.

The research, published in PNAS Nexus, addresses a problem that has become more important as wind power has expanded. Global installed wind capacity reached 1,299 GW in 2025, after a record 165 GW of new capacity was added during the year, according to the Global Wind Energy Council. The challenge now is partly about getting more useful electricity from that enormous fleet.

Wind Tunnel Behaves More Like the Atmosphere

Wind-farm experiments are difficult to control. Researchers cannot choose the wind speed or direction, and conditions can change before they have isolated the effect they are trying to measure. A conventional wind tunnel creates another problem: a small turbine operating in normal-pressure air does not reproduce all the flow conditions around a much larger turbine.

The researchers addressed this by pressurising the air. They tested a 15-centimetre-diameter turbine at pressures of up to 240 atmospheres. The increased pressure raised air density by roughly 100 to 220 times, allowing the small turbine to reproduce important aspects of the aerodynamics of much larger machines.

The researchers say the setup represented turbines roughly 15 to 20 metres in diameter, with the potential to represent machines up to 35 metres. Over several weeks, the team tested the turbine at different wind-alignment angles and under different control settings. That allowed them to separate two variables that are usually tangled together in a real wind farm: how far the turbine is turned away from the wind and how fast its blades are rotating relative to the wind.

The Outcome of the Experiment

The central finding was not simply that a misaligned turbine can produce more electricity. The experiments showed that the tip-speed ratio for maximum power depends on the turbine’s yaw angle, or how far its rotor is turned away from the incoming wind. That means a turbine operating at an angle to the wind should not necessarily use the same blade-speed setting as a turbine facing the wind directly.

The researchers changed the tip speed while varying the misalignment angle and observed new points of maximum power. They also examined blade pitch and turbine alignment. This matters because many existing approaches to predicting turbine performance assume ideal alignment. The experiments provide physical measurements showing how that assumption breaks down as the angle to the wind increases.

The study also tested a Unified Wind Turbine model developed by MIT researcher Michael Howland. The model predicted how forces and power would change under different combinations of wind misalignment and tip speed. Its predictions agreed with the controlled experimental measurements, providing experimental validation for the model.

The model is computationally lightweight enough to run on a regular laptop, according to the researchers.

What has not been Demonstrated Yet

The researchers estimate that optimising turbine alignment, blade pitch and tip speed could potentially generate tens of thousands of dollars in additional revenue per turbine each year.
It is a modelled economic estimate, not money earned by a turbine during the experiment. The researchers tested a 15-centimetre turbine in a pressurised laboratory; they did not operate a commercial wind farm under the proposed control strategy and measure its annual revenue.

The laboratory experiment therefore establishes the underlying aerodynamic relationship. Whether that relationship can be turned into a sustained increase in electricity generation under real weather conditions remains a field question. Wind farms are much harder environments to control.

In an earlier field experiment, Howland’s team deliberately misaligned turbines for months to study their behaviour. The approach generated useful data, but the researchers had to contend with changing weather and turbulent atmospheric conditions. The pressurised tunnel offers a way to test many combinations of conditions before taking an idea into that environment.

“The big output of the experiments was clearly showing that new power maximums can be achieved when the turbine becomes misaligned with the wind through only changes to the tip speed,” John Kurelek, lead author and assistant professor at Queen’s University, said.

Wind Energy and Its Indian Context

India’s wind fleet provides a substantial real-world setting in which such questions could eventually be tested. The country had 58.52 GW of installed wind power capacity as of August 31, this year, according to the Ministry of New and Renewable Energy. It added 2.43 GW during the first five months of the 2026–27 financial year, taking cumulative capacity above 58 GW.

India has also been one of the major markets driving global wind expansion. GWEC identifies China, the United States and India among the leading countries for new wind capacity additions. That makes turbine performance more than a question of designing the next generation of machines. There is already a large installed fleet whose output depends on how effectively turbines respond to changing wind conditions.

But the MIT findings cannot yet be directly translated into an Indian power-generation figure. India’s turbines operate across different wind regimes, terrain and farm layouts, while the experiment was designed to isolate aerodynamic effects in controlled conditions.

The next step is therefore straightforward: test whether the relationship measured in the laboratory holds when turbines have to deal with the shifting, turbulent conditions of an actual wind farm. If it does, the gain would come from changing how turbines operate rather than rebuilding them. For now, the experiment has established the physics behind that possibility. The commercial benefit remains to be tested.

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