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Iran–Israel–US Conflict Impact on India’s Economy & Energy

Iran–Israel–US conflict impact on India threatens oil imports, Strait of Hormuz trade routes, inflation, and the country’s clean energy transition goals.

Dipin Damodharan

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The Iran–Israel–US conflict impact on India covers oil imports through the Strait of Hormuz, trade disruptions, rising crude prices, inflation risks, and clean energy transition challenges.
The Iran–Israel–US conflict impact on India covers oil imports through the Strait of Hormuz, trade disruptions, rising crude prices, inflation risks, and clean energy transition challenges. Image credit: Zifeng Xiong/Pexels

Iran–Israel–US conflict impact on India could raise crude prices, disrupt trade, widen the current account deficit, and pressure energy security.

The tremors began far from India’s shores. US and Israeli strikes on Iran, followed by retaliatory actions, have redrawn fault lines across West Asia. But in New Delhi, in oil refineries along the western coast, and in rice mandis across Haryana and Punjab, the aftershocks are already being felt.

“US and Israel attacks on Iran, and subsequent counter attacks have exposed a new wave of geopolitical risks,” notes a policy briefing from Climate Trends, reviewed by EdPublica. For India — bound to Israel by strategic ties and to Iran by history and geography — the moment is fraught with complexity.

At the heart of the unfolding crisis lies a narrow maritime artery: the Strait of Hormuz.

The Strait of Hormuz: India’s Energy Lifeline

Nearly a quarter of the world’s crude oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz — a chokepoint linking West Asian producers to global markets. For South Asia, the dependency is sharper. Around 40% of the total crude oil consumption of India, China, Japan and South Korea transits this passage.

India imports nearly 90% of its crude oil. Of its daily imports, 2.5–2.7 million barrels per day — largely from Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, Iraq and the UAE — pass through these contested waters.

The risks are no longer theoretical. According to reports, Iran has been relaying warnings over VHF radio to ships, cautioning that passage may not be guaranteed. Insurance pricing for shipping has risen by 50% overnight. Freight rates are climbing. The Director General of Shipping has issued a circular advising stakeholders not to deploy Indian crews in Iran.

Map view of the Strait of Hormuz showing major oil shipping lanes, illustrating the Iran–Israel–US conflict impact on India’s energy imports and trade routes.
Image credit:Jacques Descloitres, MODIS Land Rapid Response Team, NASA/GSFC

If Iran’s 3.3 million barrels per day production is disrupted, oil prices could rise 9–15%, pushing crude from a base of $70 per barrel to roughly $76–81.

For India, the impact would be “more price driven and not volume driven”. Yet price shocks ripple quickly — widening the current account deficit, weakening the rupee and feeding domestic inflation.

Vivek Y. Kelkar, researcher working at the intersection of geo-economics and sustainability, warns: “Much depends on how long the conflict endures and whether risks to the Persian Gulf and the Strait of Hormuz persist… For India, the impact would be indirect but significant. With nearly 90 percent import dependence, every $10 per barrel rise increases the annual import bill by about $13–14 billion, widening the current account deficit, pressuring the rupee and adding to inflation.”

He adds that China — which buys roughly 90% of Iran’s crude exports — could pivot more aggressively toward Russian, Iraqi, Saudi and West African grades if Iranian volumes shrink. “If Beijing pivots toward the same Russian or Atlantic Basin supplies that India relies on for diversification, India’s energy security could become more expensive and more contested. The likely outcome is not deep scarcity, but tighter global balances, higher prices and diminished negotiating leverage for Indian refiners.”

From Oil Tanks to Rice Fields

The consequences extend well beyond petrol pumps.

In the weeks before the conflict escalated, Iranian importers had placed large orders for basmati rice, pushing local prices up by about Rs 10 per kg. Iran accounts for roughly 25% of India’s basmati exports; Iraq another 20%. Together, that’s over 2 million tonnes valued at more than $2 billion annually.

Uncertainty now looms over these trade flows. Tea exports too may take a hit — nearly Rs 7 billion worth was exported to Iran in 2024–25.

More broadly, Middle Eastern countries including Iran, Bahrain, Kuwait, Qatar and the UAE account for bilateral trade worth about $117.32 billion, with the UAE alone contributing nearly $100 billion. Any regional escalation directly threatens these ties.

The UAE Factor: A Stable Hub Under Strain

Dubai has long been viewed as West Asia’s insulated commercial gateway — a financial and logistics hub even when politics elsewhere burned. But the conflict “fundamentally alters Dubai’s longstanding reputation as a politically insulated financial and trade hub”. India and the UAE have been expanding cooperation in renewables, green hydrogen and critical minerals. The India–UAE Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement (CEPA), signed in 2022, marked India’s first such accord in the MENA region. Escalation now risks slowing joint ventures and technology exchanges just as clean transition investments were gathering pace.

“India’s policy of strategic autonomy has so far helped it navigate the choppy waters of geopolitics but the balancing act has become increasingly tough. The conflict in west Asia and its repercussions raise the risks to its supply chains, test energy security and increase insurance costs and fuel inflation if energy prices remain elevated, as is expected if the Strait of Hormuz is blocked… Yet, despite the rising risks India’s economy and markets are relatively better placed to ride this geopolitical storm,” Archana Chaudhary, Associate Director at Climate Trends, notes.

A Clean Energy Imperative, Not Just a Climate Goal

The crisis may also sharpen India’s clean energy calculus. Elevated oil costs increase dollar demand, typically putting downward pressure on the rupee. Costlier fuel filters into transportation, logistics and eventually food prices. Renewable energy supply chains — including critical minerals — could also be disrupted, as significant shipping traffic flows through Hormuz

Yet analysts see opportunity in the turbulence. “The recent strikes only reinforce the validity of India’s long-standing principle of strategic autonomy. In an increasingly volatile West Asian landscape, the wisdom of accelerating our clean energy ambitions becomes even more apparent for energy security. Reducing dependence on imported conventional energy sources, i.e. oil and gas, through rapid deployment of clean technologies is no longer just a climate imperative but a strategic necessity… In this fractured geopolitical order, India must deepen the momentum toward clean energy transition and technological self-reliance to insulate its growth trajectory from external shocks,” Aarti Khosla, Director, Climate Trends, argues.

Vaibhav Chaturvedi, Senior Fellow at CEEW, echoes the urgency: “The US-Iran war doesn’t bode well for the global energy economy. In the short run, we can expect an increase in oil prices. In the medium term, if the war drags, there would be a negative impact on the global economy. The event will undoubtedly create headwinds for India’s economy. India will do well to leverage its relationships to access cheaper oil in this scenario. This is a moment to bring investments to ramp up plans to scale up electrification of the power and transport sector faster as the ultimate solution to energy security.”

Duttatreya Das, Energy Analyst–Asia at Ember, calls this a turning point: “The past few months have been challenging for India’s crude supplies—first the shift away from discounted Russian Urals to avoid U.S. tariffs, and now the potential volume impact from disruptions in West Asia. While these disruptions may be short-term, India cannot simply afford to remain hostage to geopolitical volatility… Moments like these offer an opportunity to recalibrate its mobility policy, through electrification and a faster expansion of ethanol blending in the near term.”

A Moment of Strategic Testing

In South Block, a Cabinet meeting chaired by the Prime Minister signals the seriousness of the moment. OPEC has indicated it may adjust production to maintain market stability. India’s long-held doctrine of strategic autonomy — balancing relationships across rival blocs — is now under stress. After US pressure restricted purchases of Russian oil, India diversified more toward Gulf suppliers, inadvertently deepening its exposure to Hormuz-linked risks. Though it imports from over 40 countries, geography and geopolitics cannot be entirely diversified away.

The immediate reality is uncertainty: higher freight, rising insurance, volatile crude, jittery exporters.

The longer-term question is whether this crisis accelerates a structural pivot. In the shadows of tankers and warships, India’s energy transition debate is no longer abstract. It is entangled with inflation, trade, currency stability and food security.

As oil flows through a narrow strait watched by rival navies, India’s policymakers face a widening strategic horizon — where climate ambition, economic resilience and geopolitical balancing are no longer separate conversations, but one.

Dipin Damodharan is the Co-founder and Editor-in-Chief of EdPublica. A journalist and editor with over 15 years of experience leading and co-founding both print and digital media outlets, he has written extensively on education, politics, and culture. His work has appeared in global publications such as The Huffington Post, The Himalayan Times, DailyO, Education Insider, and others.

Sustainable Energy

Can India Finally Turn Waste Into Fuel? INR 23,731-Crore CBG Push

India invests INR 23,731 crore on compressed biogas (CBG) to reduce fossil-fuel dependence, manage organic waste and strengthen energy security. With 217 plants commissioned and 339 under construction as of August 2026, the new GOBARdhan scheme aims to scale production nearly ten-fold—but can it overcome the infrastructure and feedstock challenges that have slowed the sector so far?

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Aerial view of an industrial facility with piles of processed waste, highlighting waste management and CBG production.
An aerial view of a waste-processing facility, illustrating the infrastructure needed to convert organic waste into compressed biogas and other useful products. Representational image. Image credit: Tom Fisk/Pexels

India is putting INR 23,731 crore behind an effort to make compressed biogas (CBG) a larger part of its energy system, with the government targeting nearly ten-fold growth in domestic CBG production by 2035-36. The GOBARdhan scheme will combine assured demand, price support, capital assistance, pipeline connectivity and credit guarantees to expand the industry.

The push comes as India remains heavily dependent on imported gas. The government says nearly 50% of the country’s natural gas requirement is met through imports, while about 55–60% of India’s LNG imports pass through the Strait of Hormuz. This dependence makes domestically produced alternatives more relevant to energy security.

From 5,000 Plants to 217

India’s CBG ambitions are not new. The Sustainable Alternative Towards Affordable Transportation (SATAT) initiative, launched in 2018, envisaged 5,000 CBG plants producing 15 million tonnes annually by 2023-24. The target was missed.

The sector has nevertheless grown. As of August 6, 2026, 1,908 CBG/Bio-CNG plants were registered, of which 217 had been commissioned and another 339 were under construction.

The numbers show both progress and the scale of the challenge: only a fraction of registered projects have reached operation, while hundreds remain under construction.

What is Different This Time?

The new scheme attempts to address one of the industry’s central problems: making CBG projects financially predictable.

City Gas Distribution companies will face a CBG blending obligation of 3% in 2026-27, 4% in 2027-28 and 5% from 2028-29 for CNG transport and domestic PNG. The government will also provide an administered CBG price of INR 2,110 per MMBTU, with a minimum ten-year horizon. Eligible greenfield projects can receive capital assistance of up to INR 2 crore per tonne per day of installed capacity.

Dump truck unloading waste at a landfill, highlighting the organic waste management challenge behind India’s push to expand compressed biogas production.
India’s CBG push aims to turn organic waste from a disposal challenge into a source of renewable fuel and organic manure. Representational image. Image credit: Pexels

The scheme also provides pipeline support and a credit guarantee mechanism, aimed at reducing infrastructure and financing barriers.

In other words, the government is trying to create not just more plants, but a predictable market for the gas those plants produce.

Where is the Industry Growing?

CBG development remains concentrated geographically. Uttar Pradesh is among the leading states, while Gujarat, Haryana, Karnataka and Maharashtra also have significant numbers of projects. The new scheme could allow these existing hubs to expand while opening opportunities in states with large agricultural and municipal-waste streams but limited CBG infrastructure.

Kerala illustrates the latter challenge. The state recently moved into the sector with the Brahmapuram CBG plant in Kochi, commissioned in February 2026 and designed to process 150 tonnes of source-segregated biodegradable municipal waste every day.

This points to one of CBG’s central propositions: waste that would otherwise require disposal can become both fuel and a source of organic manure.

The Waste-to-Energy Opportunity

CBG can be produced from agricultural residue, cattle dung, press mud and biodegradable municipal waste. The process also generates organic fertiliser, potentially creating an additional revenue stream for producers.

But the availability of biomass alone does not guarantee a viable plant. Feedstock must be collected, transported, stored and supplied consistently. This is particularly important for agricultural residues, which are seasonal and geographically dispersed.

The new scheme therefore includes provisions for feedstock mapping and aggregation infrastructure, alongside a district-level challenge fund.

What Does the Government Expect?

The government estimates that the scheme could displace 10 million tonnes of fossil fuel over the next decade and generate around 40,000 crore rupees in foreign-exchange savings. It projects an additional 75,000 crore rupees contribution to GDP, more than 1.5 lakh jobs, over 40 million tonnes of CO₂-equivalent emissions avoided, and production of more than 250 million tonnes of organic fertiliser. These are government projections, not realised outcomes.

The projections underline the government’s broader ambition: CBG is being positioned not simply as an alternative fuel, but as a link between energy security, waste management, agriculture, employment and emissions reduction.

The Implementation Test

India now has a growing pipeline of CBG projects, a policy-backed market and financial incentives. But its earlier experience shows that ambitious targets do not automatically translate into operational plants. The success of GOBARdhan will ultimately depend on whether developers can secure reliable feedstock, obtain financing, connect plants to gas markets and operate them sustainably.

India has no shortage of organic waste. The challenge is turning that resource into a reliable, commercially viable and geographically widespread source of renewable gas.

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Sustainable Energy

Can Floating Solar Help India Expand Renewables Without More Land?

India’s new Pradhan Mantri Surya Sarovar Yojana aims to add 5,000 MW of floating solar capacity by 2030–31. By using reservoirs and other water bodies, the scheme could help expand renewable energy while easing pressure on scarce land. Its battery-storage requirement also aims to make solar power more reliable and useful during peak demand.

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Floating solar panels illustrating the Pradhan Mantri Surya Sarovar Yojana’s push for renewable energy on water bodies
Floating solar panels under the ₹5,070-crore Pradhan Mantri Surya Sarovar Yojana, targeting 5,000 MW by 2030–31. Representational image. Image credit: Abdulaziz hasan/Pexels

India is adding solar power rapidly. But as more panels are installed, another question is becoming harder to ignore: where will all of them be installed? Floating solar offers one possible answer. Large ground-mounted solar projects require vast, contiguous parcels of land. This is easier in states such as Rajasthan and Gujarat, which have abundant land and high solar radiation. But the model is harder to replicate in densely populated, land-constrained states such as Kerala.

The Union Cabinet’s approval of the Pradhan Mantri Surya Sarovar Yojana, a ₹5,070-crore scheme, seeks to address this constraint by expanding solar generation to reservoirs and other water bodies. The programme will provide central financial assistance of up to ₹1 crore per MW for floating solar projects and aims to add 5,000 MW by 2030–31. It will be implemented by the Solar Energy Corporation of India (SECI). India currently has only around 0.7 GW of installed floating solar capacity, despite an estimated potential of 102 GW.

How Is This Beneficial for Small States?

India’s solar expansion has been concentrated largely in Rajasthan and Gujarat, where large areas of relatively inexpensive land and strong solar radiation have supported utility-scale projects. But land acquisition can involve rehabilitation and resettlement, while large solar parks can compete with agriculture and other land uses.

Floating solar offers another option: generating electricity from suitable water surfaces without occupying large areas of land. This could be particularly relevant for states with limited land availability. Kerala, for example, faces much greater competition for land from settlements, agriculture and infrastructure than states with large open tracts.

Floating solar panels covering a large water body surrounded by forest
Reservoirs could provide new space for solar power as India expands floating solar under the Pradhan Mantri Surya Sarovar Yojana. Representational image. Image credit: photovs/iStock

But not every reservoir can become a solar park. Water bodies have multiple uses, including drinking water, irrigation, fisheries and power generation. Projects would therefore need careful site selection and environmental assessment.

Addressing The Storage Dilemma

The programme does not stop at adding solar panels. Projects receiving support will have to include battery energy storage equivalent to at least two hours of generation. Across the programme, this is expected to amount to around **10,000 MWh of storage. That addresses another challenge facing India’s renewable-energy transition.

Solar generation peaks during the day, while electricity demand can remain high into the evening. Batteries can store excess solar power and release it when demand rises. Storage could also reduce renewable-energy curtailment, when available electricity is not used because the grid cannot absorb all the generation. The scheme therefore combines two priorities: adding renewable capacity and making that power more useful to the grid.

The 278-MW Omkareshwar floating solar park on the Narmada River in Madhya Pradesh’s Khandwa district is currently the country’s largest floating solar project. Plans are in place to scale it up to 600 MW. However, the project does not have on-site battery storage. The new scheme could encourage a different model, where floating solar and storage are developed together from the beginning.

But Water Is Not Empty Space

Floating solar can ease pressure on land, but it comes with its own environmental and technical questions. Large installations can affect aquatic ecosystems, water quality, fisheries and other uses of reservoirs. The technology can also be more expensive and technically complex than ground-mounted solar. This makes site selection critical. The question is not simply how much floating solar India can install, but where it can be installed without creating new environmental or social costs.

A New Option For India’s Energy Transition

The government’s 5,000-MW target is small compared with India’s estimated 102 GW floating solar potential. But the scheme could help move the technology from a niche application towards a larger role in India’s renewable-energy system. Its significance lies elsewhere.

India’s renewable transition is increasingly about where clean-energy infrastructure can be built and how the electricity can be delivered when it is needed. Floating solar could help address both challenges — using suitable water surfaces to reduce pressure on scarce land while pairing solar generation with storage.

For land-constrained states such as Kerala, that could open another avenue for renewable-energy expansion. Nationally, the scheme could help India find new spaces for clean energy — without assuming that every available piece of land must become a solar park.

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Sustainable Energy

India’s Power Grid Gets Greener: Green Energy Break a New Record

India’s solar and wind energy crossed the 100 GW mark for the first time, supplying nearly half of the country’s electricity at one point. The milestone highlights the growing role of renewables in meeting India’s rising power demand—and the storage challenges that could shape the next phase of the energy transition.

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Solar panels and wind turbines generating renewable energy at sunset, representing India's growing solar and wind power capacity.
A solar farm and wind turbines generate clean electricity, reflecting the growing role of solar and wind energy in India's power grid. Representational image. Image credit: Kenueone/Pixabay

As India grappled with another summer of soaring electricity demand, the country’s power grid quietly reached a milestone. For the first time, solar and wind together generated more than 100 gigawatts (GW) of electricity, supplying nearly half of the country’s power at one point.

According to Grid Controller of India Ltd. (GRID-INDIA), utility-scale solar and wind generation reached 103.7 GW at 12.05 pm on July 13, the highest recorded so far. A few minutes later, the two sources supplied 42.79% of the electricity flowing through the national grid. The following day, generation crossed the 100 GW mark again, showing that the achievement was not a one-off event.

The record comes at a time when rainfall has been lower than usual. According to the India Meteorological Department (IMD), the southwest monsoon is expected to bring about 90% of the country’s normal rainfall this year. With lower inflows into reservoirs, hydropower generation can come under pressure, making solar and wind even more important in meeting electricity demand.

The achievement signals a broader shift. Renewable energy is no longer just expanding on paper through new projects—it is increasingly helping power homes, businesses and industries during periods of high demand.

Solar and Wind Energy: India’s Growing Demand for Electricity

India’s appetite for electricity continues to grow.

According to Power Minister Manohar Lal, the country’s peak electricity demand has already reached about 271 GW this year. The government expects it to touch around 300 GW by 2027, driven by rising use of air conditioners, electric vehicles, data centres and industrial activity.

Meeting that demand has traditionally meant relying on coal-fired power plants. This year, however, solar and wind energy has played a larger role. According to GRID-INDIA, solar generation reached a record 81 GW during the April heatwave, helping ease pressure on conventional power plants during the middle of the day.

The International Energy Agency (IEA) expects India to remain one of the world’s fastest-growing renewable energy markets through the rest of the decade. But it also warns that investment in electricity grids and storage must grow alongside renewable energy.

Solar and wind energy in India
Rooftop solar panels installed on a residential home, highlighting the growing adoption of distributed solar energy to meet household electricity needs and support India’s clean energy transition. Representational image. Image credit: AS Photography/Pixabay

The Challenge Begins After Sunset

The July record was achieved around noon, when solar panels generate their highest output. Electricity demand, however, often remains high long after sunset.

That is why many experts say the next phase of India’s clean energy transition will depend less on building more solar parks and more on storing the electricity they generate.

“The achievement shows the national grid can absorb much larger volumes of renewable electricity than before. The next priority is expanding energy storage so surplus solar power generated during the day can be supplied after sunset,” said Shreya Jai, Energy Lead at Climate Trends.

Solar Energy and Storage Challenges

Research points in the same direction. A recent study by researchers from the University of California, Berkeley, the India Energy and Climate Center and partner institutions found that expanding battery storage and making the grid more flexible would allow India to integrate much larger shares of solar and wind while maintaining a reliable electricity supply.

Disha Aggarwal, Fellow at the Council on Energy, Environment and Water (CEEW), said the milestone shows renewable energy is becoming a larger part of the country’s actual electricity supply, rather than just its installed capacity. She said the next priority should be scaling up energy storage, strengthening reserve capacity and creating electricity markets that can better support evening demand.

Storing renewable energy, however, remains one of India’s biggest challenges. Battery systems are still expensive, while pumped hydro projects require suitable terrain, long construction periods and multiple regulatory clearances. Expanding transmission networks to carry renewable power from generation centres to demand hubs is another hurdle.

Crossing the 100 GW mark shows that India can generate renewable electricity at an unprecedented scale. The bigger challenge now is ensuring that clean power generated during the day can be stored and delivered when homes, hospitals and industries need it most.

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