Global climate finance reached an unprecedented annual average of $1.9 trillion in 2023–2024, increasing by 32 per cent compared with the previous two-year period. However, despite the growth in investment, developing countries continue to face significant barriers in accessing the resources needed to adapt to climate change, according to assessments by the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) and the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD).

The findings come as countries meet for the 31st United Nations Climate Change Conference (COP31) in Antalya, Türkiye, from November 9 to 20. The conference takes place during the transition from the previous $100 billion annual climate-finance commitment to a new target of $300 billion by 2035.

Developed countries exceed $100 billion target, but questions remain

Developed countries had pledged to mobilise $100 billion annually by 2020 to support climate action in developing countries. The commitment was subsequently extended through 2025. According to the OECD’s 2026 assessment, developed countries provided and mobilised $132.8 billion in 2023 and $136.7 billion in 2024, exceeding the target for the third consecutive year.

However, the reported totals do not necessarily represent grants or money directly disbursed to developing countries. They include different forms of public finance, multilateral development bank contributions and private finance mobilised through public interventions.

Differences in accounting methods have also complicated assessments of whether countries are meeting their commitments. The UNFCCC’s 2026 assessment highlights variations in how countries report loans, grants, commitments and disbursements, making comparisons between datasets difficult.

Total global climate finance reached an annual average of USD 1.9 trillion in 2023–2024.

The earlier target is now being replaced by the New Collective Quantified Goal (NCQG), adopted at COP29 in 2024. It calls for developed countries to take the lead in mobilising at least $300 billion annually for developing countries by 2035. The wider ambition is to scale up climate finance from all sources to at least $1.3 trillion annually by the same year.

Adaptation remains dependent on public finance

The expansion of climate finance has not translated into comparable support for adaptation. Investments in mitigation, including renewable energy and low-emission transport, have attracted substantial private capital. Adaptation projects such as flood protection, resilient agriculture, water management and coastal infrastructure, however, often generate fewer direct commercial returns.

The OECD reported that developed countries’ adaptation finance reached $33.6 billion in 2023 and $34.7 billion in 2024. Public finance accounted for more than 90 per cent of the tracked adaptation finance in both years, highlighting the continued dependence of adaptation initiatives on government and multilateral funding.

The broader financing gap is considerably larger. The United Nations Environment Programme’s Adaptation Gap Report 2026 estimates that developing countries will require approximately $305 billion annually by 2035 to meet their adaptation needs. This is substantially higher than the current international public adaptation finance flows.

LDCs and island nations receive a limited share

The financing imbalance is particularly significant for Least Developed Countries (LDCs) and Small Island Developing States (SIDS), which face high exposure to extreme weather, rising sea levels and other climate-related risks.

According to the OECD, LDCs received an annual average of $24.5 billion in climate finance in 2023–2024. SIDS received $3.8 billion in each of those years. The figures underline the limited scale of financial support reaching countries with substantial adaptation requirements.

A report published by the United Nations Capital Development Fund ahead of COP31 found that LDCs, which are home to almost 20 per cent of the global population, received only 1.9 per cent of global climate finance in 2024.

The terms on which finance is provided are also important. The UNFCCC’s assessment found that loans accounted for 91 per cent of multilateral development bank climate finance in its 2023–2024 channel-level breakdown. While loans can support large infrastructure projects, debt-based finance may place additional pressure on countries already facing economic constraints.

COP31 must move from targets to delivery

The latest figures reveal a gap between the scale of global climate investment and the resources reaching countries most vulnerable to climate impacts. Although the new $300 billion target represents an increase in the international climate-finance commitment, its effectiveness will depend on how much funding is accessible, predictable and directed towards adaptation.

For developing countries, particularly LDCs and SIDS, increasing the grant component, improving transparency in financial reporting and expanding concessional funding will be essential.

COP31 offers an opportunity to address these concerns as countries begin implementing the new climate-finance framework. The challenge is no longer only to mobilise larger sums, but to ensure that finance reaches communities facing the greatest climate risks.

Global carbon dioxide emissions from fossil fuels are projected to decline marginally in 2026, even as India’s emissions are expected to increase by 4.4%, according to the latest Global Carbon Budget released by the Global Carbon Project on November 10. The findings highlight the uneven pace of the global energy transition, with expanding renewable energy capacity yet to deliver a sustained reduction in fossil fuel emissions.

The 2026 assessment estimates that global fossil fuel CO₂ emissions will reach 38.2 billion tonnes, representing a 0.4% decline compared with 2025. However, the projected reduction is partly attributed to lower oil consumption following the energy shock associated with the Iran conflict, rather than solely to structural changes in energy systems.

India’s fossil fuel emissions are projected to grow by 4.4% in 2026, exceeding the country’s average annual growth rate of 3.5% over the previous decade. India accounts for approximately 8% of global fossil fuel CO₂ emissions. The report notes that the projected increase partly reflects a rebound from relatively low emissions growth in 2025.

The contrasting trends in major economies underline the challenges of reducing emissions while meeting growing energy demand. China’s fossil fuel emissions are projected to decline by 0.9%, while those of the United States and the European Union are expected to fall by 1.3% and 1.5%, respectively.

Renewable energy offsets growing demand

The expansion of renewable energy and electric vehicles is increasingly limiting the growth of global emissions. According to the assessment, solar and wind power, alongside electric vehicles, are now offsetting approximately two-thirds of the additional emissions that would otherwise arise from increasing energy demand.

Emissions avoided through solar and wind power have increased substantially, from 0.28 billion tonnes in 2010 to an estimated 4.6 billion tonnes in 2026. The findings indicate that clean technologies are becoming increasingly important in meeting rising energy requirements without a corresponding increase in fossil fuel consumption.

However, the transition remains insufficient to achieve a sustained decline in global emissions. A research paper published alongside the carbon budget in Nature Climate Change, titled ‘A further acceleration of clean energy is needed for global CO₂ emissions to peak and decline‘, estimates that economic growth and changing energy consumption could add 2.59 billion tonnes of emissions between 2025 and 2028.

Solar power, wind power and electric vehicles could offset approximately 1.64 billion tonnes of this increase under current deployment trends. An accelerated deployment scenario could raise the avoided emissions to around 2 billion tonnes.

The researchers argue that renewable energy expansion must accelerate further to ensure that the growth in clean energy outpaces increasing global energy demand.

Land-use emissions add to the challenge

The projected decline in fossil fuel emissions does not translate into an overall reduction in carbon dioxide emissions. When emissions from land-use changes, including deforestation and forest degradation, are included, global CO₂ emissions are expected to reach 43.3 billion tonnes in 2026, compared with 42.8 billion tonnes in 2025.

View of Taipei’s skyline shrouded in smog.Image credit:Pexels

Emissions from land-use changes are projected to rise to 5.1 billion tonnes this year. The increase is associated with peatland fires and forest degradation in Southeast Asia, amid drier conditions linked to the developing El Niño.

The assessment also highlights the importance of natural carbon sinks. Land and ocean ecosystems absorbed approximately 49% of human-caused carbon emissions over the past decade. However, climate change is increasingly affecting their ability to absorb and store carbon.

Atmospheric CO₂ concentrations are projected to reach 427.7 parts per million in 2026, approximately 54% above pre-industrial levels.

Less than four years of the 1.5°C carbon budget remain

The report estimates that the remaining global carbon budget for limiting warming to 1.5°C is approximately 150 billion tonnes of CO₂. At current emission levels, this amount could be exhausted in less than four years.

The findings reinforce the urgency of accelerating the transition away from fossil fuels while protecting forests and other natural carbon sinks. Although renewable energy and electric mobility are increasingly limiting emissions growth, the researchers caution that their expansion has not yet reached the scale required to reverse the global emissions trajectory.

For India, the projected 4.4% increase highlights the challenge of aligning expanding energy requirements with climate commitments. The findings point to the need for faster renewable energy deployment, improvements in energy efficiency and stronger protection of natural ecosystems.

The 2026 Global Carbon Budget is the 21st annual assessment produced by an international research collaboration involving more than 140 scientists. It provides updated estimates of global carbon emissions, natural carbon sinks and the implications for meeting the goals of the Paris Agreement.

Delhi’s air pollution is a recurring problem shaped by more than the emissions produced within the city. Its location in the Indo-Gangetic Plain, proximity to agricultural and industrial regions, and seasonal weather conditions contribute to the accumulation of pollutants, particularly during winter.

The national capital lies in a relatively flat region surrounded by densely populated cities, agricultural land and industrial clusters. Emissions from vehicles, factories, construction activities and crop-residue burning add to the pollution load across this wider region. Atmospheric conditions often determine how quickly these pollutants disperse.

Location in the Indo-Gangetic Plain

Delhi is situated in the northwestern part of the Indo-Gangetic Plain, which extends across several northern and eastern Indian states. The region’s relatively flat terrain allows air masses to move across state boundaries, carrying dust, smoke and other pollutants over long distances.

Industrial emissions, vehicle exhaust, construction dust and agricultural burning across Delhi and neighbouring states contribute to this regional pollution burden. As a result, the city’s air quality is influenced by emissions generated beyond its administrative boundaries.

Delhi’s Air Pollution: Winter Weather Traps Pollutants

Temperature inversion is a major reason for the deterioration of Delhi’s air quality during winter. Under normal conditions, warm air near the surface rises and helps disperse pollutants. During an inversion, a layer of warmer air sits above cooler air near the ground, restricting vertical movement.

The atmospheric boundary layer, the lowest part of the atmosphere where surface emissions mix with surrounding air, also becomes shallower during winter. This reduces the volume of air available to dilute pollutants. Combined with low wind speeds, these conditions allow particulate matter to accumulate close to the ground.

The geographical influence on Delhi’s air quality is also documented in studies examining regional wind patterns and pollution transport. A 2015 study published in the Journal of the Air & Waste Management Association, titled An Investigation of Potential Regional and Local Source Regions Affecting Fine Particulate Matter Concentrations in Delhi, India, used backward air-mass trajectories to trace the movement of pollutants reaching the city.

It identified Pakistan, Punjab, Haryana and Uttar Pradesh as significant potential source regions. The study also found that wind direction influenced particulate concentrations in Delhi, with air arriving from industrial and urban centres in the surrounding National Capital Region carrying additional emissions. These findings show how pollution can move across state boundaries and affect the capital’s air quality.

Crop-residue Burning Adds to Pollution

Punjab, Haryana and western Uttar Pradesh have extensive paddy-growing regions. After harvesting, some farmers burn crop residue to clear their fields for the next cultivation cycle. Smoke from these fires contains fine particulate matter that can travel towards Delhi, depending on wind direction and speed. The practice coincides with the onset of winter, when weaker winds and atmospheric stability already favour pollution accumulation.

Crop-residue burning is a seasonal contributor, however. Vehicle emissions, industrial activities, construction dust and waste burning continue to affect air quality throughout the year. Delhi’s proximity to Rajasthan also exposes it to dust transported from arid and semi-arid regions, including the Thar Desert. During summer, strong winds can carry desert dust towards the capital, increasing concentrations of particulate matter, particularly PM10. Construction sites, unpaved roads and exposed soil within the National Capital Region add to the dust burden.

Why the Monsoon Brings Relief

Monsoon rainfall helps remove airborne particles through a process called wet deposition, in which raindrops capture pollutants and bring them to the ground. Stronger winds and atmospheric mixing during this season also improve pollutant dispersion.

After the monsoon withdraws, rainfall decreases and atmospheric conditions gradually become more favourable for pollution accumulation. The combination of reduced rainfall, declining wind speeds and winter temperature inversions contributes to the seasonal deterioration in air quality.

Pollution Needs a Regional Response

Delhi’s geographical position makes air pollution a regional problem. Controlling emissions within the capital remains important, but pollution transported from surrounding agricultural, industrial and urban areas also needs attention.

Stronger winds can temporarily improve air quality by dispersing pollutants. Sustained improvement, however, requires reductions in emissions across the wider airshed, alongside measures to address local sources and seasonal pollution.