Rate of global warming caused by humans at an all-time high
New research conducted by over 50 prominent international scientists reveals that global warming attributed to human activities is progressing at a rate of 0.26°C per decade, marking the fastest pace observed since record-keeping began.
The University of Leeds’ second annual Indicators of Global Climate Change report reveals that human-induced warming has escalated to 1.19°C over the past decade (2014-2023), up from 1.14°C documented in the previous decade (2013-2022, as reported last year). In 2023 alone, human activity contributed to a warming of 1.3°C. However, the overall warming experienced in 2023 reached 1.43°C, indicating that natural climate variability, notably influenced by El Niño, also contributed to the record temperatures observed that year.
The analysis indicates that the remaining carbon budget, the amount of carbon dioxide that can still be emitted before reaching 1.5°C of global warming, is approximately 200 gigatonnes (billion tonnes), equivalent to roughly five years of current emissions. In 2020, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) estimated the remaining carbon budget for 1.5°C to be between 300 and 900 gigatonnes of carbon dioxide, with a central estimate of 500 gigatonnes. Since then, CO2 emissions and global warming have continued to rise. As of early 2024, the remaining carbon budget for 1.5°C ranges from 100 to 450 gigatonnes, with a central estimate around 200 gigatonnes.
Professor Piers Forster, who leads the Indicators of Global Climate Change Project as Professor of Climate Physics at the University of Leeds, highlighted that despite efforts to curb greenhouse gas emissions, human-induced global warming has continued to intensify over the past year. He expressed concern that global temperatures are rising at an accelerated pace, contrary to desired outcomes. The project’s analysis aims to monitor the enduring impacts of human activities on climate patterns. Forster noted that observed temperature fluctuations reflect both long-term trends and short-term natural variations. Notably, during recent record-breaking temperature periods, these natural influences temporarily augmented the overall warming trend by approximately 10%.
Climate experts are convening in Bonn to lay the groundwork for the upcoming COP29 climate conference scheduled for November in Baku, Azerbaijan. This gathering comes at a crucial time, with the UN’s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) not due to release its next major assessment until around 2027, creating a notable “information gap” amidst rapidly changing climate indicators.
Accompanying this development is the launch of the Climate Change Tracker’s Indicators of Global Climate Change dashboard, an open data and science platform. This tool aims to provide accessible, up-to-date information on critical climate metrics.
Published in the journal Earth System Science Data by over 50 scientists, the latest Indicator report also offers fresh insights into the impact of reduced sulphur emissions from the global shipping industry. Sulphur emissions traditionally have a cooling effect on climate by reflecting sunlight and aiding in cloud formation. However, ongoing reductions in these emissions have diminished this cooling effect.
EP Staff is the editorial team at EdPublica, an independent media organisation focused on science, education, environment and public policy. The team produces evidence-based news, features, explainers and analysis on issues that shape society and everyday life.
252 Million Hectares Under Restoration Across 149 Countries, but UN Warns of 2030 Target Gap
A UN report finds that 252 million hectares across 149 countries are under ecosystem restoration. However, increased investment and accelerated action are needed to meet global restoration targets by 2030.
Healthy mountain forests and river ecosystems play an important role in maintaining biodiversity and ecological balance.Image credit:Pexels
Global efforts to restore degraded ecosystems have reached 252 million hectares across 149 countries, generating more than one million green jobs. However, a new United Nations assessment warns that restoration efforts remain insufficient to meet international biodiversity targets by 2030, calling for a more than fourfold increase in annual investment.
The report provides the first comprehensive global assessment of progress towards commitments to restore approximately one billion hectares of degraded ecosystems. These commitments are linked to the UN Decade on Ecosystem Restoration (2021–2030) and the Kunming-Montreal Global Biodiversity Framework, which calls for at least 30 per cent of degraded terrestrial, freshwater, marine and coastal ecosystems to be under effective restoration by 2030.
According to the assessment, the 252 million hectares currently documented under restoration represent the largest recorded global restoration effort. However, this accounts for only 34 per cent of the indicative global benchmark associated with the 2030 target.
Freshwater and marine ecosystems lag behind
The report identifies considerable differences in restoration progress across regions and ecosystem types. Asia accounts for the largest share of documented restoration, with 192.2 million hectares, followed by Africa with 36.3 million hectares and Europe with 9.1 million hectares. North and Central America account for 5.8 million hectares, South America 5.4 million hectares and Oceania 3.2 million hectares.
However, the report cautions that these figures should not be interpreted as a ranking of restoration performance, as they also reflect differences in regional land area and monitoring and reporting capacities.
Restoration of terrestrial ecosystems has reached nearly half of the global 2030 target. China reports the largest terrestrial restoration area, with 127.4 million hectares, while substantial restoration activities have also been documented in Mongolia and Kazakhstan.
Progress remains considerably slower in freshwater, marine and coastal ecosystems, despite these environments experiencing rapid degradation.
A river along the side of a dense forest. Image credit: Pexels
The assessment documents 11 million hectares of freshwater ecosystems under restoration across 62 countries and 5.7 million hectares of marine and coastal ecosystems across 46 countries. The report also notes that limited monitoring and reporting may mean that actual restoration activities in these ecosystems are higher than the documented figures.
Meanwhile, the share of countries reporting implemented wetland restoration or rehabilitation programmes has increased from 8 per cent in 2022 to 54 per cent.
Restoration financing needs to increase fourfold
Insufficient investment remains a major obstacle to achieving global restoration commitments. The report estimates that annual restoration financing must increase from US$64 billion to US$296 billion by 2030, representing more than a fourfold rise.
Agroforestry requires the largest estimated annual investment, at US$87 billion, followed by restorative reforestation at US$52 billion, peatland restoration at US$44 billion and seagrass restoration at US$28 billion.
The report identifies employment generation as another potential benefit of scaling up restoration. While more than one million green jobs have already been associated with restoration initiatives, increased global investment could generate up to 32 million additional jobs by 2030.
It also highlights the potential contribution of ecosystem restoration to climate mitigation and biodiversity protection. Research cited in the assessment indicates that restoring just 15 per cent of global priority areas could capture and store 30 per cent of carbon dioxide-equivalent emissions released since the Industrial Revolution and help prevent 60 per cent of projected species extinctions.
The report further identifies the participation and leadership of Indigenous Peoples and local communities as essential to ensuring long-term restoration outcomes. Secure land rights, stronger monitoring systems and sustained political commitment are among the priorities identified.
With five years remaining in the UN Decade on Ecosystem Restoration, the assessment calls on governments to move beyond isolated restoration projects towards coordinated, long-term programmes that address the underlying causes of ecosystem degradation.
It emphasises that the 2030 targets should serve as a milestone in the restoration process rather than its conclusion, as ecological recovery requires sustained action and investment beyond the end of the decade.
Kashmir’s Traditional Rice Varieties Hold Genetic Clues to Climate Resilience
A new study by SKUAST-Kashmir researchers identifies cold-tolerance genes in traditional rice varieties, highlighting their potential for climate-resilient crop breeding.
Traditional rice cultivation highlights the agricultural heritage that researchers are working to preserve as they investigate genetic resources for climate-resilient crops.Imagecredit:Pexels
For generations, farmers in Kashmir have cultivated traditional varieties of rice adapted to the region’s distinctive growing conditions. A new genomic study has found that these varieties retain genetic characteristics associated with cold tolerance and local adaptation, potentially offering valuable resources for developing climate-resilient crops.
Researchers at the Sher-e-Kashmir University of Agricultural Sciences and Technology of Kashmir (SKUAST-Kashmir), Srinagar, analysed 142 rice germplasm samples to examine the genetic diversity and evolutionary history of rice cultivated in the region. Published in The Plant Genome in 2026, the study identified genetic signatures in traditional varieties that could help researchers develop rice better suited to environmental stress.
The findings are significant as climate change alters growing conditions and increases uncertainty for agricultural production. Preserving traditional crop varieties could give plant breeders access to genetic traits that may have become less common in modern cultivars.
Genes linked to cold tolerance
The study, titled Re-sequencing 142 rice genomes reveals the fine-scale population structure and phylogenetic affinities of landraces of Kashmir Valley: Evidence from domestication and adaptive signatures, used genomic analysis to investigate relationships among traditional landraces, modern varieties and other rice genetic resources.
The researchers found that Kashmir’s traditional varieties carried genetic signatures associated with temperate japonica rice, while many modern varieties showed stronger associations with indica lineages from subtropical India. This distinction points to differences in their genetic histories and adaptation to local growing environments.
Among the important findings was the identification of favourable variants of CTB4a and HAN1, two genes associated with cold tolerance in rice. The researchers also examined genetic variation linked to grain quality, plant development and other agricultural traits.
Traditional varieties, including Mushq Budji, Kamad, Kaw Kreer, Nun Beoul and Zag, displayed distinctive genetic patterns. Their diversity could provide useful material for future crop-improvement programmes.
The findings do not establish that all these varieties are more resilient than modern cultivars under every environmental condition. Instead, they identify genetic resources that warrant further investigation through breeding programmes and field trials.
Earlier research explains the significance
Previous research provides a scientific basis for investigating the cold-tolerance genes identified in Kashmir’s traditional rice varieties.
A 2017 study published in Nature Communications examined CTB4a, a gene associated with cold tolerance during the booting stage of rice development, when reproductive structures form. The researchers found that a favourable variant improved cold tolerance and helped maintain pollen fertility and seed setting under low-temperature conditions.
Crops in a paddy field.Image credit:Pexels
Similarly, a 2019 study published in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences investigated HAN1 and found that natural genetic variation in the gene contributes to chilling tolerance in temperate japonica rice. The findings helped explain how rice adapted to cooler climates.
These studies strengthen the case for investigating CTB4a and HAN1 variants in Kashmir’s rice germplasm. However, the presence of promising genetic variants does not automatically guarantee improved performance in farmers’ fields. Their effects can depend on the crop’s broader genetic background, the timing and intensity of temperature stress, and other environmental conditions.
Conserving agricultural diversity
The Kashmir study also offers insights into the region’s agricultural history. Its genetic analysis suggests links between traditional Kashmir rice varieties and temperate rice lineages associated with Northeast Asia. The researchers propose that these lineages reached the region after approximately 1500 BCE, although this historical reconstruction remains an interpretation of genetic and archaeological evidence.
Beyond their historical significance, traditional rice varieties may preserve traits useful for future agricultural challenges. Modern breeding programmes often prioritise yield and other selected characteristics, but genetic diversity within traditional varieties can provide additional options for addressing environmental stress and maintaining grain quality.
The findings underline the importance of conserving traditional rice germplasm in gene banks and supporting its continued cultivation where feasible. Such conservation helps prevent potentially valuable genetic material from disappearing as farming systems and crop preferences change.
As climate change places increasing pressure on agricultural systems, Kashmir’s traditional rice varieties offer researchers a valuable starting point for investigating crop adaptation. Their genetic diversity connects generations of farming knowledge with modern genomic research, potentially helping plant breeders develop rice varieties suited to changing environmental conditions while preserving the region’s agricultural heritage.
India’s Green Cover Declined by 5.6 Percentage Points in 25 Years as Summer Heat Intensified: Study
A new study links India’s declining green cover to rising summer temperatures, highlighting the importance of vegetation conservation for climate adaptation.
Vegetation helps regulate local temperatures through shade and evapotranspiration, highlighting the role of green cover in climate adaptation. Image credit:Unsplash
India’s green cover declined from approximately 36.95 per cent in 2001 to 31.35 per cent in 2025, while non-green surfaces expanded across the country, according to a new study by Climate Trends. The analysis found that non-green landscapes consistently recorded higher summer temperatures than vegetated areas, highlighting the role of green cover in moderating local heat.
The findings suggest that vegetation loss can contribute to local warming, although the study also identifies broader regional climate change as a factor influencing temperature trends. Protecting and restoring vegetation could help reduce local thermal stress, but it cannot independently offset the effects of global warming.
“Vegetation is not merely an ecological asset; it is an important component of India’s climate-adaptation infrastructure,” said Dr Palak Balyan, Research Lead at Climate Trends.
The study comes amid growing concerns over extreme heat and its implications for public health, livelihoods and infrastructure. The India Meteorological Department reported that 2024 was the country’s warmest year since records began in 1901, with the annual mean temperature 0.65°C above the 1991–2020 average.
Vegetation Loss and the Local Heat Effect
The Climate Trends analysis used land-cover information from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) and ERA5-Land temperature data to assess changes between 2001 and 2025. It examined summer conditions during March, April and May to understand how land-cover transitions corresponded with temperature patterns.
Vegetation helps regulate surface temperatures through shading and evapotranspiration, the process by which plants release water vapour into the atmosphere. Trees reduce the amount of solar radiation reaching the ground, while vegetation and soil moisture influence how energy is absorbed and released. When green landscapes are replaced by built-up areas, exposed ground or sparsely vegetated surfaces, these cooling mechanisms may weaken.
Dr Balyan said the persistent temperature difference between green and non-green landscapes demonstrated the importance of vegetation in regulating local thermal conditions.
“Protecting existing natural vegetation should therefore be treated as an adaptation priority, particularly in regions experiencing simultaneous green-cover loss and rising summer temperatures,” she said.
The findings are consistent with the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s assessment of nature-based cooling measures, which identifies urban trees, vegetation and green infrastructure as potential ways to reduce heat exposure. However, the extent of cooling depends on local climate, vegetation type, water availability and the surrounding built environment.
Regional Differences Require Targeted Action
The study found that green-cover loss was concentrated in parts of western India, the Indo-Gangetic Plain, central India and the peninsula. Localised gains were identified in portions of the northeastern states, the Himalayan foothills and scattered areas of southern and eastern India.
Temperature changes also varied geographically. Warming was particularly evident across northwestern and northern India, while localised cooling occurred in parts of central and southern India. These variations indicate that national averages can obscure differences in local land-use patterns and climate conditions.
The findings have implications for urban planning, particularly in rapidly expanding cities where construction can replace trees, open spaces and other vegetated landscapes. Protecting mature trees, retaining existing green spaces and integrating vegetation into streets and public areas could help reduce heat exposure, particularly in vulnerable neighbourhoods.
However, restoration must be planned around local ecological conditions. Newly planted trees cannot immediately provide the shade offered by mature canopies, and their survival depends on suitable species, soil conditions, water availability and long-term maintenance. Protecting established vegetation is therefore an important complement to new planting initiatives.
Green Cover Cannot Replace Broader Climate Action
The study emphasises that land-cover changes are not the only drivers of summer temperatures. Both green and non-green landscapes experienced warming during the study period, indicating the continuing influence of broader climatic conditions.
Dr S K Dhaka, Professor of Atmospheric Physics at the University of Delhi, cautioned against treating vegetation restoration as a standalone solution.
“Vegetation restoration can reduce local thermal stress, but it should not be viewed as a substitute for broader climate action,” he said.
Temporal variation in green and non-green land cover across India
He added that warming observed even in areas that remained continuously green showed that large-scale climatic forces continued to influence regional temperatures.
“India therefore needs a dual strategy: prevent further loss of established vegetation while implementing scientifically targeted restoration in heat-vulnerable regions, alongside stronger action on water management, urban planning and greenhouse-gas emissions,” Dr Dhaka said.
The distinction is important because increasing vegetation alone cannot eliminate heat risks associated with rising background temperatures. Effective adaptation requires combining nature-based measures with emissions reduction, appropriate urban design and improved water management.
Aarti Khosla, Founder-Director of Climate Trends, said the study highlighted the practical consequences of losing vegetation.
“The study puts a number on something we’ve long argued, that vegetation is not a biodiversity afterthought, but a climate-adaptation infrastructure,” she said.
“Where green cover has disappeared, temperatures have risen with it, and that is a cost India’s communities are already paying for,” Khosla added.
She also pointed to international biodiversity commitments, including the target of restoring 30 per cent of degraded ecosystems by 2030, arguing that the gap between commitments and implementation has consequences for climate resilience.
The study recommends protecting existing vegetation, preventing avoidable green-cover loss and promoting ecological restoration as part of sustainable land management.
Its central message is that green cover should be considered more than an environmental amenity. While vegetation cannot prevent all forms of warming, conserving it can help moderate local temperatures and reduce thermal stress. As India faces increasing heat risks, integrating vegetation protection into climate adaptation and development planning could help build more resilient communities.