Earth
Earth is Heating Up: The Economic Cost of a Rising Sea
Rising seas are turning coastal exposure into an economic challenge. Cities must weigh the cost of protecting infrastructure, livelihoods and communities against the growing risks of inaction.
For Mumbai, the sea has always been an economic asset. Its position along the Arabian Sea helped turn the city into a centre of trade, finance, industry and transport. But the same coastline that sustains its economy also exposes homes, roads, businesses and critical infrastructure to flooding and rising sea-level. The United Nations identifies Mumbai and Kolkata, along with Dhaka, as low-lying South Asian cities where more than 14 million people face the immediate risk of losing their homes to permanent inundation.
What rising seas cost, however, depends on what a coastline holds. In Bangladesh, a one-metre rise could inundate around 4,000 sq km of land, nearly 3% of the country and climate impacts including rising seas could force more than 13 million people to move within the country by 2050. In Saint Kitts and Nevis, saltwater intrusion threatens the freshwater aquifers on which communities depend. In New York City, sea levels could rise by up to 1.3 metres by the end of the century, putting a vast concentration of infrastructure and economic activity at greater risk.
Around 770 million people, roughly one in every 10 people on Earth, live in coastal areas less than five metres above the high-tide line. Nearly 900 million people live in low-lying coastal zones, and more than one billion could be exposed to coastal hazards by 2050. These are not empty margins of the map. They contain ports, roads, industries, homes, tourism facilities and freshwater systems that support economies and everyday life.
That makes sea-level rise more than a question of where the water will reach. It is a question of what sits in its path, who depends on it, and how much it will cost to protect, rebuild or relocate what cannot be saved.
The Baseline is Already Moving
Global mean sea level remained near the record high observed in 2024, according to the World Meteorological Organization’s State of the Global Climate 2025. Between 2012 and 2025, sea level rose at an average rate of 4.75 millimetres a year, compared with 2.65 mm a year between 1993 and 2011. In 2024 alone, global mean sea level rose 5.9 mm, the highest annual increase in the satellite record, with exceptional ocean warming a major factor.
The economic significance lies in what that extra water does to the baseline. A higher sea means tides can reach critical infrastructure more often. Storm surges can travel farther inland. Drainage systems can become less effective. Flooding that was once rare can become recurrent, bringing repeated repair costs and disruption.
The UN estimates that an extreme sea-level event that historically occurred once every 100 years could occur at least annually at more than half of the world’s tide-gauge locations by 2100 under all the scenarios examined. For businesses and governments, that changes the economics of risk.
When the Sea Threatens More Than Land
Mexico’s coastline is more than a boundary between land and sea. With more than 11,000 kilometres of coastline and nearly half its population living in coastal states, the country is already confronting the wider consequences of a rising sea.
In its contribution to the UN negotiations, Mexico said sea-level rise is putting pressure on ecosystems, infrastructure, livelihoods and water security. Its message was that the response cannot stop at protecting land from encroaching water. It must address the systems and communities that depend on vulnerable coasts. Mexico also called for the international response to move from broad commitments towards a smaller set of clear, actionable priorities, grounded in international law.
That shifts the question from how much land could be lost to the sea to what happens to the people and systems that depend on that land. For coastal countries, that distinction could determine how the cost of rising seas is ultimately distributed.
Trillions of Dollars are Exposed
The physical assets at risk are already enormous. Infrastructure worth at least 1.8 trillion dollars is exposed to sea-level risks globally. More than 80% of global goods trade is carried by sea, making ports and the networks connected to them particularly important to the world economy.
The potential losses rise sharply as sea levels climb. The UN report cites estimates of $1.7 trillion to 5.5 dollars trillion in residual damage costs from sea-level rise over the coming century. A global mean sea-level rise of 20 centimetres by 2050 could contribute to more than $1 trillion in annual flood losses across the world’s 136 largest coastal cities. Without adaptation, global annual losses have been estimated at 1.2 trillion dollars to 4 trillion dollars.
These figures capture more than the cost of repairing flooded buildings. A damaged port can interrupt manufacturing hundreds of kilometres inland. Flooded roads can prevent workers from reaching businesses. Power and sanitation failures can halt economic activity. Repeated disruption can make coastal locations more expensive to insure and less attractive for investment. The economic damage can therefore travel well beyond the flood line.
Cities Face a Compounding Bill
Coastal cities concentrate both people and capital. Their economic advantage has historically come partly from proximity to the sea. Ports connect them to global trade. Waterfronts support tourism and real estate. Rivers and estuaries provide transport, fisheries and access to freshwater.
The same geography now creates concentrated exposure. Nearly 500 million people live in low-lying river-ocean zones. In South Asia, more than 14 million people in low-lying cities, including Mumbai and Kolkata, are identified as being at immediate risk of losing their homes to permanent inundation. In some areas, land subsidence compounds sea-level rise, increasing the rate at which relative water levels rise.
For households, the consequences can include damaged homes, lost income and rising costs of recovery. For cities, the bill can include repeated repairs to roads, drainage, public buildings and utilities. And there is a less visible cost: the money that must be spent simply to keep existing systems functioning as the baseline changes.
India: Exposure Meets Rapid Development
India’s coastline makes the challenge clearer. Coastal cities and industrial regions are expanding alongside a coastline exposed to cyclones, storm surges, flooding and erosion. As development continues, more assets are being placed in areas where future climate risks need to be considered.
INCOIS has assessed future changes in average and extreme sea levels at 11 locations of India’s coast and islands. Under the high-emissions SSP5-8.5 scenario, relative mean sea level by 2100 is projected to rise between 0.62 metres at Visakhapatnam and 0.87 metres at Bhavnagar, relative to the 1995–2014 baseline.
Projected extreme sea-level increases are higher, ranging from 0.68 metres at Chennai to 1.12 metres at Bhavnagar. These numbers matter economically because cities do not experience mean sea level in isolation. A higher baseline interacts with tides, cyclones, storm surges and waves, increasing the potential for damaging events.
INCOIS found that coastal regions north of 13°N are particularly vulnerable to changes in extreme sea levels, with the Gulf of Gujarat and northern Bay of Bengal showing some of the largest changes in tidal maxima and climate extremes. The challenge for India is therefore not simply protecting today’s coastline. It is deciding where tomorrow’s infrastructure, housing and economic activity should be concentrated.
The Cost of Adaptation
Avoiding losses will itself require substantial investment. The UN estimates that developing countries need 310 billion dollars to 365 billion dollars every year for adaptation, while adaptation finance stood at about 26 billion dollars in 2023. Adaptation costs in developing countries are estimated to be 10–18 times current public adaptation finance.
Cities may need to strengthen drainage, raise roads, protect ports, upgrade water systems and reinforce critical infrastructure. Coastal ecosystems may need restoration and space to migrate inland. Some communities may eventually require planned relocation. A seawall may make sense around a densely developed port. A wetland may offer better protection in another location. In places facing persistent inundation, continuing to rebuild may cost more than planned relocation.
The UN report points to a combination of measures, including risk-informed planning, early-warning systems, resilient infrastructure, nature-based approaches and, where necessary, relocation.
Paying Later Could Cost More
One of the central economic questions is timing. Sea-level rise is a slow-onset hazard. Its costs accumulate gradually, while much disaster financing is designed around sudden events. Waiting until repeated flooding becomes a crisis can leave governments paying for emergency repairs instead of planned adaptation.
Money spent before infrastructure is repeatedly damaged can reduce future losses. Coastal planning can prevent new assets from being locked into high-risk locations. Early-warning systems can limit casualties and economic disruption. Protecting wetlands can preserve a natural buffer while supporting fisheries and other livelihoods. Adaptation is therefore not simply an expenditure. It can also be a way of limiting future losses.
Changing Coastline, an Economic Choice
The ocean will continue to rise for centuries because of heat already stored in the climate system and the slow response of glaciers and ice sheets. The economic question is how societies respond to that trajectory.
The sea will not wait for cities to settle their priorities. For Mumbai, rising seas will shape decisions about what to protect, where to build and how much risk communities can bear. The water may rise gradually. The cost of being unprepared will not.
Climate & Environment
Global Ecosystem Restoration Progress Falls Short of 2030 Targets, UN Report Warns
Ecosystem restoration efforts are expanding across the world, but progress remains insufficient to meet global biodiversity targets for 2030, according to a new report released by the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO), the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) and the Secretariat of the Convention on Biological Diversity (SCBD).
The report, Restoration Progress Report: Nature’s Comeback – Scaling Ecosystem Restoration for People and Planet, documents approximately 252 million hectares of terrestrial, freshwater, marine and coastal ecosystems under restoration across 149 countries in 2026. Despite this progress, the report warns that implementation must triple to achieve the global commitment to restore 30 per cent of degraded ecosystems by 2030.
Countries have collectively committed to restoring approximately one billion hectares through national plans, international agreements and regional initiatives. However, the documented restoration area represents only about a quarter of these commitments, highlighting the gap between political ambition and action on the ground.
The assessment comes as the United Nations Decade on Ecosystem Restoration (2021–2030) enters its second half. It examines restoration progress across different ecosystems, the financial resources required and the measures needed to accelerate recovery.
The report identifies land-use change, agricultural expansion, deforestation, overexploitation of natural resources, pollution and climate change as major drivers of ecosystem degradation. These pressures frequently interact, making recovery more difficult and expensive.
More than 1.56 billion hectares of land, representing over 15 per cent of the global land surface, are estimated to be degraded. Between 2015 and 2019, at least 100 million hectares of previously healthy and productive land were degraded annually. Agricultural lands account for more than 60 per cent of global land degradation, with an estimated 480 million hectares of cropland and 560 million hectares of pastureland affected.
Freshwater and marine ecosystems lag behind
Restoration progress varies considerably across ecosystem types. Terrestrial ecosystems account for the largest share of documented restoration, with approximately 232 million hectares under restoration. However, this still represents only about half of the 469 million hectares estimated to be required to meet the 2030 restoration target for terrestrial ecosystems.
Freshwater ecosystems face a substantially larger implementation gap. Only around 11 million hectares are documented as being under restoration, representing approximately 4.5 per cent of the estimated 244 million hectares required to meet the target.
Marine and coastal ecosystems have approximately 5.7 million hectares under restoration, equivalent to around 23 per cent of their estimated 25 million-hectare target.
The report notes that freshwater and marine ecosystems are among the most rapidly degrading environments, despite their importance in supporting biodiversity, food security and livelihoods. Incomplete monitoring and inconsistent national reporting also make it difficult to establish the full extent of restoration activities in these ecosystems.
Funding gap threatens restoration ambitions
Financing remains another major obstacle. Global restoration investments reached approximately $64 billion in 2022, but annual funding needs to increase to $296 billion by 2030 and $448 billion by 2050 to meet restoration requirements.
The report calls for greater public investment alongside private and blended financing mechanisms. It also stresses the need to redirect financial flows and subsidies that encourage unsustainable resource use and contribute to environmental degradation.
Beyond ecological benefits, restoration could generate significant employment opportunities. The report estimates that more than one million green jobs have been created through the World Restoration Flagships, while ecosystem restoration has the potential to generate over 32 million additional jobs globally by 2030.
Vibrant green moss and plants beside a gently flowing stream in a natural setting.Image credit:Pexels
It also highlights the potential of restoration to address climate change and biodiversity loss. Research cited in the assessment indicates that restoring just 15 per cent of global priority areas could capture and store carbon equivalent to 30 per cent of the total increase in atmospheric carbon dioxide since the Industrial Revolution, while helping avoid 60 per cent of species extinctions.
The report emphasises that successful restoration requires more than increasing the area of land brought under recovery. It calls for greater participation of Indigenous Peoples and local communities, recognition of land rights, stronger monitoring systems and restoration strategies that address entire landscapes and ecosystems.
As the 2030 deadline approaches, the assessment identifies three priorities for accelerating progress: building a broader global movement for restoration, strengthening political commitment and developing the technical capacity needed to implement and monitor restoration programmes.
It concludes that restoration targets must translate into sustained ecological recovery rather than remain numerical commitments. Preventing further degradation and ensuring that restored ecosystems continue to recover will be essential to securing long-term benefits for biodiversity, climate resilience and human well-being.
Earth
Greener Forests, Weaker Carbon Sinks? Study Finds Declining Productivity in Northeast India
A 24-year satellite-based study finds that Northeast India’s forests are experiencing declining carbon productivity despite relatively stable canopy cover, highlighting how rising atmospheric dryness could weaken their capacity to absorb and retain carbon.
Forests in Northeast India are showing signs of a weakening capacity to accumulate carbon despite maintaining relatively stable canopy cover, according to a study published in Ecological Indicators in October 2026. The research suggests that increasing vegetation greenness does not necessarily indicate stronger carbon sinks, highlighting the need to assess forest health beyond satellite measurements of green cover.
Titled Are Greener Forests Stronger Carbon Sinks? Rising Vapour Pressure Deficit Instigates Greening-Productivity Decoupling in a Tropical Biodiversity Hotspot in India, the study examined forest carbon dynamics across Northeast India using 24 years of satellite-derived data from 2001 to 2024.
Researchers analysed three indicators: Leaf Area Index (LAI), Gross Primary Productivity (GPP) and Net Primary Productivity (NPP). These measurements helped assess changes in forest canopy structure, photosynthetic activity and the amount of carbon retained in plant biomass after accounting for plant respiration.
The analysis found that while canopy structure remained relatively stable and gross primary productivity increased modestly by 1.76 grams of carbon per square metre annually, net primary productivity declined by 0.83 grams of carbon per square metre annually across much of the region.
The researchers identified a divergence between canopy greenness and carbon productivity across approximately 40% of forested areas. A separate divergence between photosynthetic activity and net productivity was observed across around 30% of the region.
These findings indicate that forests can maintain their green appearance without achieving corresponding gains in carbon accumulation.
Atmospheric dryness emerges as a major factor
The study identified rising Vapour Pressure Deficit (VPD) as a primary driver of declining forest productivity. VPD measures the difference between the amount of moisture the atmosphere can hold and the moisture it actually contains. Higher VPD indicates greater atmospheric demand for water, increasing stress on vegetation.
Under such conditions, plants may close their stomata, the small pores on their leaves, to reduce water loss. This also restricts the intake of carbon dioxide required for photosynthesis, potentially reducing the amount of carbon absorbed by vegetation.
The researchers also identified a major shift in forest carbon functioning beginning around 2012. Their analysis suggests that the relationship between canopy structure, photosynthesis and net carbon accumulation has weakened over time.
The findings are particularly significant for Northeast India, which the study identifies as a climatically sensitive biodiversity hotspot containing approximately one-third of India’s forest carbon.
Earlier research points to similar concerns
The findings build on earlier research published in Scientific Reports in December 2023, which examined vegetation productivity across India between 2001 and 2019.
That study found that India’s Leaf Area Index increased by 6.75% in consistently forested areas, while Net Primary Productivity declined by 6.19%. Northeast India, the Western Ghats and parts of Peninsular India emerged as important regions experiencing declining productivity.
The 2023 research associated these changes with rising temperatures, which can reduce photosynthesis and increase plant respiration beyond certain temperature thresholds.
Another study examining a semi-deciduous forest in Kaziranga, published in Agricultural and Forest Meteorology in 2022, demonstrated how carbon exchange varies with seasonal and climatic conditions. It found that the forest functioned as a carbon sink during the pre-monsoon season but as a carbon source during winter in the observed study period.
Image of a dense forest alongside a flowing river.Image credit:Pexels
Together, these studies highlight the importance of examining forest productivity, atmospheric conditions and seasonal carbon exchange rather than relying solely on changes in green cover.
The latest research does not suggest that Northeast India’s forests are structurally collapsing. Instead, it points to a less visible change in their ecological functioning, with implications for forest carbon accounting and climate-resilient forest management.
The findings underline the need for monitoring systems that combine satellite observations with measurements of atmospheric stress and carbon productivity to better understand how tropical forests respond to a warming climate.
Earth
252 Million Hectares Under Restoration Across 149 Countries, but UN Warns of 2030 Target Gap
A UN report finds that 252 million hectares across 149 countries are under ecosystem restoration. However, increased investment and accelerated action are needed to meet global restoration targets by 2030.
Global efforts to restore degraded ecosystems have reached 252 million hectares across 149 countries, generating more than one million green jobs. However, a new United Nations assessment warns that restoration efforts remain insufficient to meet international biodiversity targets by 2030, calling for a more than fourfold increase in annual investment.
The findings are presented in the Restoration Progress Report: Nature’s Comeback – Scaling Ecosystem Restoration for People and Planet, released on October 29, 2026, by the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP), the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) and the Secretariat of the Convention on Biological Diversity (CBD).
The report provides the first comprehensive global assessment of progress towards commitments to restore approximately one billion hectares of degraded ecosystems. These commitments are linked to the UN Decade on Ecosystem Restoration (2021–2030) and the Kunming-Montreal Global Biodiversity Framework, which calls for at least 30 per cent of degraded terrestrial, freshwater, marine and coastal ecosystems to be under effective restoration by 2030.
According to the assessment, the 252 million hectares currently documented under restoration represent the largest recorded global restoration effort. However, this accounts for only 34 per cent of the indicative global benchmark associated with the 2030 target.
Freshwater and marine ecosystems lag behind
The report identifies considerable differences in restoration progress across regions and ecosystem types. Asia accounts for the largest share of documented restoration, with 192.2 million hectares, followed by Africa with 36.3 million hectares and Europe with 9.1 million hectares. North and Central America account for 5.8 million hectares, South America 5.4 million hectares and Oceania 3.2 million hectares.
However, the report cautions that these figures should not be interpreted as a ranking of restoration performance, as they also reflect differences in regional land area and monitoring and reporting capacities.
Restoration of terrestrial ecosystems has reached nearly half of the global 2030 target. China reports the largest terrestrial restoration area, with 127.4 million hectares, while substantial restoration activities have also been documented in Mongolia and Kazakhstan.
Progress remains considerably slower in freshwater, marine and coastal ecosystems, despite these environments experiencing rapid degradation.
A river along the side of a dense forest. Image credit: Pexels
The assessment documents 11 million hectares of freshwater ecosystems under restoration across 62 countries and 5.7 million hectares of marine and coastal ecosystems across 46 countries. The report also notes that limited monitoring and reporting may mean that actual restoration activities in these ecosystems are higher than the documented figures.
Meanwhile, the share of countries reporting implemented wetland restoration or rehabilitation programmes has increased from 8 per cent in 2022 to 54 per cent.
Restoration financing needs to increase fourfold
Insufficient investment remains a major obstacle to achieving global restoration commitments. The report estimates that annual restoration financing must increase from US$64 billion to US$296 billion by 2030, representing more than a fourfold rise.
Agroforestry requires the largest estimated annual investment, at US$87 billion, followed by restorative reforestation at US$52 billion, peatland restoration at US$44 billion and seagrass restoration at US$28 billion.
The report identifies employment generation as another potential benefit of scaling up restoration. While more than one million green jobs have already been associated with restoration initiatives, increased global investment could generate up to 32 million additional jobs by 2030.
It also highlights the potential contribution of ecosystem restoration to climate mitigation and biodiversity protection. Research cited in the assessment indicates that restoring just 15 per cent of global priority areas could capture and store 30 per cent of carbon dioxide-equivalent emissions released since the Industrial Revolution and help prevent 60 per cent of projected species extinctions.
The report further identifies the participation and leadership of Indigenous Peoples and local communities as essential to ensuring long-term restoration outcomes. Secure land rights, stronger monitoring systems and sustained political commitment are among the priorities identified.
With five years remaining in the UN Decade on Ecosystem Restoration, the assessment calls on governments to move beyond isolated restoration projects towards coordinated, long-term programmes that address the underlying causes of ecosystem degradation.
It emphasises that the 2030 targets should serve as a milestone in the restoration process rather than its conclusion, as ecological recovery requires sustained action and investment beyond the end of the decade.
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