When the Strait of Hormuz was disrupted in 2026, a return to coal seemed inevitable. Instead, renewable energy filled the gap—revealing a deeper shift in how the world responds to energy crises.
When the Strait of Hormuz was blocked in early 2026, the world braced for an energy crisis. The narrow waterway is one of the most critical routes for global fuel transport, carrying nearly 19% of the world’s liquefied natural gas. As shipments were disrupted, a familiar expectation took hold: countries would fall back on coal.
That assumption was rooted in history. In previous crises, when gas supplies became uncertain or expensive, coal often filled the gap. This time, many expected the same pattern to repeat.
But it didn’t.
According to an analysis by the Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air (CREA), global fossil fuel power generation fell by around 1% in March 2026 compared to the previous year. Gas-fired power dropped more sharply, by 4%, while coal generation remained largely flat.
Hormuz Crisis and Clean Energy Shift
The CREA analysis, which draws on near-real-time electricity data covering major power markets including China, the United States, the European Union, and India, represents around 87% of global coal power and over 60% of gas power. In the context of a global disruption, even a modest decline signals something more structural: the expected “return to coal” did not materialise.
The explanation lies in a shift that has been building quietly over the past decade—the rapid expansion of renewable energy.
In March 2026, increases in solar and wind played a decisive role in offsetting the drop in fossil fuels. Solar generation rose by 14%, while wind increased by 8%, with hydropower also contributing modest gains. Together, these sources absorbed the shortfall without pushing systems back toward coal.
“The record growth in global clean power generation, particularly solar and wind, has helped ease the impact of the latest fossil fuel crisis,” said Lauri Myllyvirta, Lead Analyst at CREA. “The increase in clean electricity offset the fall in gas-fired power generation following the Hormuz blockade, preventing a jump in coal-fired power generation.”
Outside China, coal-fired generation fell by 3.5%, while gas declined by 4%. Major economies—including the United States, India, the European Union, Turkey, and South Africa—recorded reductions in coal-based electricity. This directly challenges the long-standing assumption that fossil fuels serve as the default backup during crises.
The scale of renewable growth helps explain why.
In 2025 alone, the world added roughly 510 gigawatts of solar capacity and 160 gigawatts of wind. These additions are expected to generate about 1,100 terawatt-hours of electricity annually. By comparison, all the natural gas transported through the Strait of Hormuz in 2025 could produce around 590 terawatt-hours—roughly equivalent to France’s total power generation.
In effect, the renewable capacity added in a single year now produces nearly twice the electricity linked to one of the world’s most strategic fossil fuel routes. The implications are structural, not temporary.
Further evidence comes from coal transport. Seaborne coal shipments fell by 3% in March 2026, reaching their lowest levels since 2021. China and India, the world’s largest coal importers, saw a 9% drop in shipments, while countries such as Turkey and Vietnam also recorded declines.
Coal did not step in to fill the gap, in part because it could not. In many markets, coal plants were already operating near their maximum capacity. With coal already heavily utilised—often because it had been cheaper than gas—there was limited room to increase output further.
Gas, by contrast, typically serves as a flexible buffer in power systems. When gas supplies were disrupted, that flexibility was constrained. Renewable energy, rather than coal, filled the resulting gap.
At the same time, rising fossil fuel prices have strengthened the economic case for clean energy, discouraging new investment in coal.
This pattern has precedent. When Russia reduced gas exports to Europe, there were similar fears of a coal resurgence. While coal use rose briefly, the longer-term response was an acceleration of renewable deployment, leading to a sustained decline in emissions. The Hormuz disruption appears to be reinforcing that trajectory rather than reversing it.
At the country level, the trend is largely consistent. The most significant declines in coal power generation were recorded in the United States, India, South Africa, Turkey, Germany, and the Netherlands. In many cases, the expansion of solar power was the primary driver, supported by improvements in hydropower and nuclear generation.
There were exceptions. Japan and South Korea saw increases in coal use due to weaker nuclear output, while parts of coastal China temporarily shifted from gas to coal amid high gas prices. Even so, overall coal generation in China remained below 2024 levels, underscoring the broader direction of change.
The crisis has also triggered policy responses aligned with long-term transition goals. France is accelerating electrification across key sectors. Egypt plans to add 2,500 megawatts of renewable capacity. India has announced annual bids for 50 gigawatts of renewable energy. Indonesia is pursuing a 100-gigawatt solar vision, while Turkey has pledged $80 billion in renewable investments by 2035. Vietnam, meanwhile, is planning to phase out coal-fired plants in new energy projects after 2030.
These moves suggest that the response to disruption is not a return to older systems, but a faster shift toward new ones. The findings from CREA point to a deeper transition already underway—one in which clean energy is no longer supplementary, but central to energy security.
For decades, fossil fuels were seen as the backbone of energy security—reliable, scalable, and indispensable during crises. That assumption is now being tested. Renewable energy is increasingly demonstrating its ability to stabilise supply during periods of disruption.
The idea of a “coal comeback” may have made for compelling headlines, but the data tells a different story. Instead of turning back, the global energy system appears to be moving forward.
The Hormuz crisis may ultimately be remembered not as a moment of regression, but as an inflection point—one that revealed how far the transition to clean energy has already progressed, and how it may accelerate in the years ahead.