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Six Months of the Hormuz Crisis: A USD 330 Billion Global Fuel Bill — and India’s USD 22.5 Billion Share

Dipin Damodharan

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Hormuz Crisis
A chokepoint made visible: as ships queue to pass through the Strait of Hormuz, fuel prices break sharply away from what markets had priced in before the war. Illustration: EdPublica

Six months into the Hormuz crisis, global fossil fuel importers have paid USD 330 billion above expected prices, with India’s additional bill reaching USD 22.5 billion.

EdPublica Data Desk   |   Analysis

Since the United States and Israel struck Iran on 28 February 2026 and shipping through the Strait of Hormuz collapsed, countries that import oil and gas by sea have paid more than USD 330 billion above what markets had expected to charge them, according to new research published by the Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air (CREA). That works out to roughly USD 55 billion extra every month for half a year — the largest sustained fossil fuel price shock since the 1990 Gulf War, and one that is still running.

Hormuz crisis drives global fuel costs higher

India’s share of that bill is USD 22.5 billion, the second-highest of any country in the world, behind only China’s USD 35.5 billion and ahead of the United States, despite America being the world’s largest oil producer. That ranking is a direct consequence of how much of its energy India buys from abroad: the country imports close to 90 percent of the crude oil it uses, more than almost any other major economy, which leaves it with limited room to absorb a shock at the source.

Hormuz Crisis: USD 330 Billion Global Fuel Bill, India's Share

India paid the second-highest fossil fuel import premium of any country over the six months to August 2026, behind only China.  Source: CREA analysis. Illustration: EdPublica

A shock rivalled only by the 1990 Gulf War

CREA’s estimate is built from actual, ship-tracked cargo data — sourced from Kpler — for crude oil, refined fuels and gas that moved by sea between March and August 2026, compared against the futures prices the market had already set for those same delivery months in the twelve days before the strikes. Because both sides of the comparison are settlements of the same contract, the gap is a direct, like-for-like price difference rather than a modelled estimate. The analysis covers 170 countries and deliberately excludes pipeline gas, coal, fuel oil, naphtha, freight and war-risk insurance, all of which would push the true cost higher. CREA describes its USD 330 billion figure as conservative on that basis.

Brent crude’s trajectory over the six months traced a path familiar from past oil shocks: a sharp spike in the first weeks, a partial retreat, and a second surge later on. Prices briefly touched pre-war levels in late June before climbing back above USD 100 a barrel in late July, a pattern CREA’s researchers compared directly against the 1990 Gulf War, the 2019 Abqaiq attack and the 2022 Russian invasion of Ukraine. Of those four episodes, only the Gulf War produced a larger and longer-lasting price premium than the current crisis.

Refined fuels rose faster than crude itself

Crude oil accounts for the largest single share of the extra cost, USD 164 billion, at an average premium of 35 percent over pre-war expectations. But the fuels people and businesses actually use day to day rose by a steeper proportion still. Diesel and gasoil were up 59 percent, adding USD 74 billion; gasoline rose 43 percent, adding USD 36 billion; jet fuel rose 59 percent, adding USD 20 billion; and LNG rose 60 percent in the Atlantic basin and 75 percent in the Pacific, adding USD 38 billion.

EdPublica Hormuz Chart FuelBreakdown

Refined fuels — diesel and gasoil in particular — rose by a steeper margin than crude oil itself.  Source: CREA analysis. Illustration: EdPublica

Diesel’s premium mattered more than any other single figure in the analysis, because of how widely it is used. Industry, freight and farming all run substantially on diesel, so its price feeds directly into the cost of nearly everything else. Of the 170 countries CREA analysed, 134 paid more for diesel than their pre-war futures had implied. The war premium for diesel stayed above 55 percent in five of the six months, dipping to 43 percent in June before climbing back to 65 percent by August. Even the United States, the world’s largest oil producer, was not insulated: the average price of a gallon of diesel rose to USD 5.57 in the week of 17 August, the highest level since 2022 and closing in on that year’s record, according to AAA.

The clean energy dividend

The research’s central finding on mitigation is that a country’s exposure to the shock has been shaped less by geography than by how much of its power already comes from clean sources. Clean power capacity added since 2020 saved importing countries an estimated USD 36 billion in avoided coal, gas and oil imports in the first five months of the crisis alone. Of that, USD 10.6 billion existed only because of the war itself: every unit of coal or gas a country did not need to buy was a unit it did not have to purchase at inflated wartime prices, on top of whatever it would ordinarily have saved.

“The best way to protect against high oil prices is to get off the black stuff as quickly as possible. Oil and gas prices have long proven to be an Achilles’ heel for both household finances and the global economy as a whole.” — Luke Wickenden, Energy Analyst, CREA

“The energy transition is an investment,” Wickenden added, “so the best day to have started is yesterday.” Electrification is compounding the effect: the world’s electric vehicle fleet is on course to displace around five million barrels of oil a day by 2030, roughly comparable to the volume of crude Saudi Arabia currently moves through its East-West Yanbu pipeline specifically to bypass the Strait of Hormuz, according to the International Energy Agency’s Global EV Outlook.

Poorer countries are absorbing a bigger hit

The burden of the crisis has fallen unevenly by income, not just by geography. Low- and lower-middle-income countries paid an additional 1.0 percent of their 2024 GDP in higher fossil fuel costs, more than twice the 0.45 percent burden faced by high-income countries.

“Across every fossil fuel product, this crisis is a multi-car pile-up, and where you land depends on what you’re driving. Wealthier nations, for whom paying extra is less of a burden in the short term, can absorb the higher prices. That’s not the case for lower-income countries that are far more price-sensitive. The countries best placed are the ones already in the EV lane: with fuel imports slashed, they can skirt the pile-up altogether.” — Luke Wickenden, Energy Analyst, CREA

India’s particular exposure

India’s position in the top three is not simply a function of the size of its economy. The country entered 2026 already navigating a difficult trade-off on energy: after Washington imposed additional tariffs on Indian exports over New Delhi’s imports of discounted Russian crude, India had been cutting back on Russian oil and increasing purchases from the Middle East in pursuit of a US trade deal. The Hormuz crisis disrupted that shift almost immediately, cutting off much of the Middle Eastern supply India had been leaning on and pushing it back toward Russian crude even as prices climbed and a separate US sanctions waiver on Russian oil purchases lapsed in April.

By June, India’s total crude imports had hit a monthly record of roughly five million barrels a day, with Russian supplies alone reaching an unprecedented 2.6 million barrels a day — 54 percent of the country’s total crude imports, and more than double the volume seen in February. That pivot briefly inverted the usual arithmetic: discounted Urals crude, which had traded well below Brent since 2022, began trading at a premium to it in March, as Indian and Chinese refiners competed for the limited Russian cargoes still reaching them outside the Gulf. By July, as Gulf supply chains began to normalise, Urals discounts had reopened to more than USD 10 a barrel below Brent.

Russian crude functioned, in effect, as India’s insurance policy against a disruption its strategic reserves were not large enough to absorb on their own — but insurance still has a premium, and India’s USD 22.5 billion bill is a measure of how much of that premium it ultimately paid, on top of what it saved through the Russian discount.

Dipin Damodharan is an award-winning journalist, editor and media entrepreneur, and Co-founder and Editor-in-Chief of EdPublica, an independent global media platform covering education, science, research, innovation, climate and public policy. With more than a decade of experience in journalism, he has worked across print, digital and multimedia media. His reporting explores science, climate, sustainability and the social impact of research and innovation. His work has been recognised by the Solutions Journalism Network and other journalism organisations.

Society

Greece Passes Social Media Ban for Children Under 15

Greece’s new law will bar children under 15 from social media from January 2027, adding to international efforts to regulate young people’s access to online platforms.

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Teenager using a smartphone as Greece moves to ban social media access for children under 15.
Greece Social Media Ban for Children Under 15. Representational image. Image credit: https://kaboompics.com/ Pexels

Greece’s Parliament has approved legislation prohibiting children under 15 from using social media, with the restriction scheduled to take effect on January 1, 2027. The law requires platforms to verify users’ ages and provides for penalties if companies fail to comply.

The decision adds Greece to a growing international effort to regulate children’s access to social networking platforms, as governments respond to concerns about online safety, excessive screen use and children’s mental health.

Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis had announced the plan in April. His conservative New Democracy party used its parliamentary majority to pass the bill after a debate that continued from Thursday into Friday. The opposition PASOK party abstained, while other opposition parties voted against it.

How will the Age Restriction Work?

Social media companies will have to introduce age-verification systems to enforce the minimum age. Greece has identified digital tools such as Gov.gr Wallet and Kids Wallet as possible ways to support age checks. The precise implementation and how platforms will meet the requirements remain important questions ahead of the January deadline.

The government has linked the measure to concerns that social media use can interfere with children’s sleep, concentration and personal relationships. However, enforcing the age limit will depend on how platforms identify underage users and prevent them from creating or retaining accounts.

Age verification also raises questions about privacy. Systems that require identity documents or other personal information could expose users to additional data risks. The European Commission has been developing an age-verification system designed to confirm whether someone meets an age threshold without sharing their identity with the platform.

Greece Joins a Wider International Push

Australia became the first country to enforce a nationwide ban on social media for children under 16 in December 2025. Its law requires covered platforms to prevent underage access, with substantial financial penalties for non-compliance.

In Europe, the European Commission proposed the EU KIDS Act in September 2026. The proposal would prevent children under 13 from accessing social media accounts, allow limited, parent-supervised accounts for those aged 13 and 14, and set 15 as the minimum age for independently managed accounts. The proposal still needs approval through the EU legislative process.

These approaches differ in their age thresholds and enforcement mechanisms, reflecting an ongoing debate about how governments should balance children’s protection with access to digital communication and information.

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Climate

Climate Disasters Disrupted Schooling for 171 Million Students in 2025, UNICEF Finds

Climate disasters disrupted schooling for 171 million students worldwide in 2025, highlighting the urgent need for climate-resilient schools and education systems.

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A child walks past a weather-damaged wooden school building with a partially missing roof.
Climate-related disasters can damage school infrastructure and disrupt children's access to education.Image credit:UNICEF/UNI779465/Ralaivita

Climate-related disasters disrupted schooling for at least 171 million students worldwide in 2025, affecting one in every 10 school-age children, according to a new UNICEF report that warns of growing threats to learning, educational equality and future economic prospects.

The report, Learning Interrupted: Global Snapshot of Climate-Related School Disruptions in 2025, released on September 10, analysed data from 106 countries and territories. It found that storms, floods, heatwaves, droughts and wildfires caused school closures, shortened teaching hours, reduced attendance and shifts to remote learning.

The findings underline how climate change is emerging as a threat to educational continuity, particularly in countries where schools lack the infrastructure and resources to withstand extreme weather.

Storms and floods interrupt learning

Storms were the leading cause of climate-related school disruptions in 2025, affecting 109 million students globally. Floods affected at least 70 million, while heatwaves disrupted schooling for approximately 50 million children. These figures overlap and should not be added together as separate groups.

In Pakistan, severe monsoon flooding in August delayed the return to school for more than 28 million students. In Egypt, a powerful Khamsin wind-and-dust storm prompted a nationwide suspension of classes for one day, affecting more than 28 million students.

The problem extends beyond individual disasters. Forty countries experienced multiple rounds of climate-related school disruptions during 2025, exposing students to repeated interruptions throughout the academic year.

Floods can damage classrooms, sanitation facilities and learning materials, while extreme heat can make classrooms unsafe and undermine students’ ability to concentrate. Even after schools reopen, damaged infrastructure, disrupted transport and household financial pressures can prevent children from returning to regular attendance.

A growing threat to educational equality

Three-quarters of the students affected in 2025 lived in low- and lower-middle-income countries, where education systems often have fewer resources to prepare for disasters and restore teaching afterwards, UNICEF found.

The World Bank’s 2024 report, Choosing Our Future: Education for Climate Action, offers further evidence of the long-term challenge. It estimated that 400 million students globally experienced school closures due to extreme weather between 2022 and 2024. In affected schools in low-income countries, students lost approximately 45 instructional days between January 2022 and June 2024, compared with around six days in high-income countries.

These interruptions can compound existing educational disadvantages. Students from wealthier households may have access to private tutoring, digital devices and alternative learning arrangements. Children from poorer households may lack internet connectivity, electricity or suitable spaces to study during closures.

South Asia’s exposure highlights the challenge

UNICEF’s previous assessment, covering 2024, recorded at least 242 million students experiencing climate-related school disruptions across 85 countries and territories. South Asia was the most affected region, with 128 million students impacted. Heatwaves affected an estimated 171 million students worldwide that year.

India was among the countries affected by heat-related educational disruptions. In April 2024, extreme heat contributed to school interruptions across Bangladesh, Cambodia, India, the Philippines and Thailand, affecting at least 118 million children collectively. The figure represents the five-country group, not India alone.

The 2024 and 2025 totals should not be interpreted as a direct year-on-year decline. The reports covered different sets of countries and climate events, and the number of recorded disruptions depends on the incidents identified in each assessment.

Climate-resilient schools become a priority

UNICEF estimates that disruptions experienced in 2025 could cost affected students at least US$200 billion in lifetime earnings through lost learning and widening educational inequalities. This is a projection of potential future losses, rather than income already lost.

The World Bank has argued that relatively modest investments can help schools adapt. Its 2024 analysis estimated that a one-time investment of US$18.51 per child could help mitigate learning losses through measures such as improving classroom temperatures, strengthening school infrastructure and training teachers.

Climate disaster
schooling

Aerial view showing significant flood damage in a residential neighborhood with inundated streets and homes.Image credit:Pexels

UNICEF is calling for climate resilience to be incorporated into education planning, alongside investment in stronger school buildings, emergency preparedness and systems that allow teaching to continue during disasters.

As extreme weather increasingly interrupts academic calendars, education systems must prepare not only to enrol children but also to protect their ability to learn. Climate-resilient infrastructure, early-warning systems and plans for educational continuity will be essential to ensuring that disasters do not deepen existing inequalities in access to education.

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Society

Global Job Market Faces a Growing Inclusion Gap as AI and Digitalisation Reshape Work

Global employment faces a growing inclusion gap as AI and digitalisation reshape the labour market. UN and ILO reports highlight persistent informal employment, youth exclusion and unequal access to the skills needed for emerging jobs.

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Person holding a cardboard sign reading “Need a Job,” representing unemployment and the global struggle for employment.
As technology reshapes the world of work, millions continue to face barriers to secure employment and decent working conditions.Image credit:Pexels

The global economy is undergoing a profound employment transition, driven by artificial intelligence (AI), digitalisation, demographic changes and the shift towards greener industries. Yet, while these forces are expected to create new career opportunities, access to employment and the benefits of technological progress remain deeply unequal, according to the United Nations’ World Social Report 2026.

Released on October 15, the report, published by the UN Department of Economic and Social Affairs (UN DESA), warns that billions of people remain excluded from the jobs, skills, infrastructure and social protections required to participate in economic transformation. Its findings highlight a central challenge for policymakers: creating employment opportunities is not enough unless people can access them and secure decent working conditions.

The scale of the problem is evident in the report’s latest figures. In 2025, 58 per cent of workers worldwide were informally employed, while 27 per cent of young women aged 15–24 were neither employed nor participating in education or training. An estimated 2.2 billion people also lacked internet access, limiting their ability to benefit from digital services, online learning and emerging employment opportunities.

More Jobs, but Unequal Opportunities

The challenge extends beyond unemployment to the quality and security of work. The International Labour Organization’s Employment and Social Trends 2026 report estimated that global unemployment would remain at 4.9 per cent in 2026, equivalent to approximately 186 million people. However, nearly 300 million workers continued to live in extreme working poverty, surviving on less than US$3 a day. The report also projected that 2.1 billion workers would be in informal employment in 2026, often without adequate social protection or employment security.

Young people face particular difficulties entering the labour market. According to the ILO, youth unemployment reached 12.4 per cent in 2025, while approximately 260 million young people were not in employment, education or training. For many, the transition from education to work remains uncertain, particularly where economies fail to generate enough productive jobs.

These challenges coincide with substantial changes in the kinds of jobs employers expect to need. The World Economic Forum’s Future of Jobs Report 2025, based on projections from more than 1,000 employers, estimates that technological, economic, demographic and green-transition trends could create 170 million jobs globally by 2030 while displacing 92 million. This would produce a net gain of 78 million jobs. However, the report warns that the transition will require extensive workforce adaptation. Nearly 40 per cent of workers’ existing skills are expected to change by 2030, and 63 per cent of surveyed employers identified skills gaps as a major barrier to business transformation.

The projections suggest that the central employment challenge is not simply whether jobs will disappear, but whether workers can move into emerging roles. Demand is expected to grow in areas such as AI, data analysis and cybersecurity, alongside essential occupations in healthcare, education and agriculture. Workers whose skills do not match changing requirements risk being excluded even as new vacancies emerge.

Digital Access and Skills Will Shape the Transition

Access to technology is another dividing line. The World Bank’s Digital Progress and Trends Report 2025 identifies disparities in connectivity, computing infrastructure, relevant data and digital skills as barriers to wider participation in the AI economy. While AI adoption is expanding, high-income countries continue to dominate important areas of AI innovation and computing capacity.

Global job crisis
Ai
Youth

Representational image.Image credit:Pexels

For people without reliable internet access, affordable devices or opportunities to acquire digital skills, the shift towards online recruitment, digital services and AI-assisted work can deepen existing disadvantages. Connectivity alone, however, is insufficient: workers also need relevant training, accessible education and opportunities to apply their skills in productive employment.

The UN report argues that governments must invest in quality education, lifelong learning, digital and AI capabilities, affordable connectivity and stronger social protection. Labour-market policies must also support decent working conditions, equal opportunities and training that helps workers move between occupations.

For developing economies with large young populations, the stakes are particularly high. A growing workforce can support economic growth only when enough productive jobs are available and workers can acquire the capabilities those jobs demand. Without such opportunities, demographic potential can translate into prolonged unemployment, insecure work and widening inequality.

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