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When the Himalayas Collapse Without Warning, What Counts as Preparedness?

Nepal flash floods show why Himalayan disaster preparedness must go beyond early warnings to safer infrastructure, land-use planning and climate adaptation.

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Nepal flash floods show why Himalayan disaster preparedness must go beyond early warnings to safer infrastructure, land-use planning and climate adaptation.
CCTV footage shows a mudslide and floodwaters at Gyirong Port on the China-Nepal border on August 26, 2026. Credit: CCTV footage via Wikimedia Commons, Public Domain.

The Rasuwa disaster (Nepal flash floods) has killed more than 1,000 people in Nepal and China and left thousands missing. The catastrophe exposes a harder problem than the absence of an alarm: how do you protect communities and infrastructure when mountain hazards can cascade within minutes?

On the morning of August 26, a mass of ice and rock broke loose high in Nepal’s Rasuwa district and plunged roughly 1,200 metres into the valley below. Within minutes, the resulting debris and water surged into the Bhotekoshi River system.

A week later, the scale of the disaster is far clearer and far more devastating than initial reports suggested. Nepal’s National Disaster Risk Reduction and Management Authority (NDRRMA) has reported 1,050 deaths and 3,916 people missing. China has reported another 16 deaths and 546 missing in the affected area across the border, taking the combined death toll to 1,066. More than 11,800 people have been rescued in Nepal, but the search continues in remote valleys and at damaged hydropower projects. The numbers continue to shift as rescue teams recover bodies and families search for missing relatives.

Nepal flash floods expose the limits of early warning

Researchers analyzing satellite imagery, seismic signals, and video footage say the flood was likely triggered by an ice-rock avalanche rather than a conventional glacial lake outburst flood (GLOF). The distinction matters: while a glacial lake’s water levels and drainage systems can be monitored for early warnings, an unstable mountain slope can fail suddenly, turning a quiet landscape into a debris corridor within minutes.

A disaster that outran the warning system

ICIMOD’s assessment notes that the collapse occurred around 8:37 am Nepal Standard Time, producing a magnitude 5.2 seismic signal. Hydrological data shows how rapidly the event unfolded: water levels on the Trishuli River at Galchchi rose nine metres in just 30 minutes, while levels at Malekhu rose seven metres in a similar window, washing away several monitoring stations in the process.

This highlights a hard reality in disaster management: a warning system is only useful if there is enough lead time to act.

Dr. Farooq Azam, Senior Cryosphere Specialist at ICIMOD, described the Rasuwa event as a sudden-onset hazard with no detection and no time for warnings. Because deep-seated bedrock or sub-glacial instabilities remain invisible to standard surveillance, identifying a failure point in advance is rarely possible. The take-away isn’t that early-warning systems are useless, but rather that they cannot be the sole pillars of Himalayan safety.

From early warning to early preparedness

When casualties run into the thousands, the scope of the problem extends far beyond simple flood management. Nearly 1.6 million people have been affected across a broad area, with extensive destruction to roads, bridges, markets, communications, and power grids. As of September 1, NDRRMA figures show at least 639 hydropower workers missing, while over 21,000 security personnel remain deployed for search and rescue.

When a sudden mountain hazard strikes, built infrastructure often compounds the catastrophe. Destroyed roads delay emergency crews, collapsed bridges isolate entire villages, damaged power plants force dangerous confined-space rescues, and lost monitoring stations blind teams downstream.

Because of this, Azam advocates shifting focus toward long-term resilience: stricter land-use planning, safer infrastructure siting, and public awareness of high-altitude risks. He emphasizes that environmental impact assessments must evaluate how a shifting mountain landscape will affect a project over its entire operational lifetime—not just during construction. Planners can no longer just ask if a bridge or power plant can survive today’s weather; they have to design for conditions 30, 50, or 70 years down the line.

The Himalayas are not a static landscape

While current scientific evidence does not draw a direct line from climate change to this single avalanche, the event occurred within a mountain ecosystem experiencing rapid physical changes.

Glaciological assessments show accelerating mass loss across the Himalayas, with negative mass balance recorded in 89% of observed years over the last five decades. The Hindu Kush Himalaya region has also seen significant 21st-century warming, rising between 0.15°C and 0.60°C per decade.

These shifts ripple through the whole ecosystem. Snow cover patterns are shifting, permafrost is thawing, and slope stability is deteriorating. Thawing permafrost is particularly concerning high up, where frozen ground acts as a natural glue; as it thaws, erosion, landslides, and slope failure increase, directly threatening down-valley infrastructure. Climate change doesn’t need to directly trigger an avalanche to make the entire region significantly more fragile.

Black carbon is another pressure on the cryosphere

Particulate pollution presents another major stressor. A study by Climate Trends found that black carbon concentrations on the Indian side of the Himalayas rose by roughly 7.74% between 2000–09 and 2010–19. The study recorded a notable jump in average snow-surface temperatures, which rose from -11.27°C (2000–09) to -7.13°C (2020–23).

Black carbon darkens snow, reducing its reflectivity and accelerating surface melting. Because mountain ice acts as a natural water reservoir for downstream populations, this melting threatens long-term water security. While black carbon didn’t explicitly cause the Rasuwa slide, it underscores why regional environmental risks must be tackled holistically rather than in isolated hazard buckets.

The problem begins with where we build

Ultimately, the hardest questions around Rasuwa are geographical: Where are we building towns, laying roads, and placing power plants?

Over recent decades, infrastructure has steadily encroached onto lower riverbanks and active floodplains. While older communities historically built on higher ground to avoid active river channels, modern land-use planning frequently ignores these natural boundaries. Bringing local and indigenous geographical knowledge back into modern engineering decisions is a practical starting point for adaptation.

Anjal Prakash, Professor of Public Policy at FLAME University and an IPCC author, points out that the region does not suffer from a lack of science. Researchers have tracked retreating glaciers, changing permafrost, and rising snowlines for decades. The failure, he argues, lies in policy— translating well-documented risks into smarter zoning and construction choices.

A regional disaster cannot be managed country by country

The Rasuwa crisis also demonstrates why disaster planning cannot stop at national borders. The affected river systems cross international boundaries, the failure originated near the Nepal-China border, and the resulting debris washed through multiple downstream jurisdictions.

The World Meteorological Organization points to this as a clear example of cascading transboundary hazards. Aarti Khosla, Director of Climate Trends, similarly notes that risks across the Hindu Kush Himalaya affect India and neighboring countries equally, requiring joint approaches to monitoring, early warning, and climate adaptation.

Data sharing across borders is essential. A flood warning downstream in one country often relies on sensor data from upstream in another. When development choices or infrastructure failures in one nation can trigger impacts across the border, regional coordination becomes a necessity rather than an option.

The future risk is not just more floods

Disaster risk in the Himalayas is often oversimplified into a single concept: Glacial Lake Outburst Floods (GLOFs).

GLOFs are a major threat, but the vocabulary needs to expand. The mountains face ice falls, rockslides, landslide-dammed rivers, debris flows, and slope failures—often interacting all at once. An avalanche blocks a river; the temporary dam holds back water until it breaches; the resulting torrent sweeps up massive amounts of rock and earth; the debris wipes out bridges and monitoring equipment, leaving downstream teams blind to what is coming next. Preparing for mountain hazards means preparing for these linked multi-stage events, not just isolated floods.

What preparedness should look like now

A practical response requires pairing early-warning technology with long-term climate adaptation:

  • Diversify warning networks: Expand river sensors, satellite tracking, and local alert channels where lead time exists, while planning for events that offer no notice at all.
  • Update zoning and land use: Base building regulations on dynamic river and slope modeling rather than static historical maps.
  • Mandate life-cycle risk assessments: Require infrastructure projects to factor in climate and cryosphere projections over their entire intended lifespan.
  • Build system redundancy: Ensure communications, transit routes, and monitoring stations have backups so a single failure point doesn’t collapse an entire emergency response.
  • Integrate local knowledge: Use community insights on historical floods and terrain stability alongside satellite and scientific data.
  • Formalize transboundary cooperation: Share real-time hydrological, seismic, and weather data across international borders.

The mountains are changing. Policy must catch up.

The long-term outlook for the region is stark. Under high-emissions scenarios, Himalayan glaciers could lose over 60% of their volume by 2100; even moderate scenarios project losses of up to 35%.

These projections outline a fundamental transformation of the mountain environment. Glacial retreat initially leads to periods of higher runoff—”peak water”—followed by declining long-term water availability, directly impacting farming, drinking water, and energy production across South Asia.

As UN Climate Change Executive Secretary Simon Stiell has noted, rising temperatures are making severe mountain disasters more frequent. In the Himalayas, the core issue is that expanding human settlements and multi-million-dollar infrastructure projects are sitting in the path of a rapidly changing landscape designed around historical climate assumptions.

When a mountain moves without warning, safety relies entirely on decisions made years or decades before the collapse happens.

EP Staff is the editorial team at EdPublica, an independent media organisation focused on science, education, environment and public policy. The team produces evidence-based news, features, explainers and analysis on issues that shape society and everyday life.

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Climate

Heatwaves are Affecting Fertility Traits in Bees.

A new study finds that heatwave exposure during early development can impair fertility-related traits in solitary bees, raising concerns about the potential effects of extreme heat on pollinator populations.

Jishnu P

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A honeybee perched on a white flower, collecting pollen from its yellow stamens.
Bees play a vital role in pollination, but rising temperatures may threaten their reproductive health and long-term survival.Image credit:Pexels

Bees are an attractive species to capture on your mobile phone. They may fit well into the aesthetic imagery of our habitats. But recent studies warn that, in the near future, it might become more convenient to create an AI image of a bee than to spot one in our environment.

There are around 20,400 recorded species of bees in the world. More than 90% do not live in hives or produce honey. This percentage is even higher in India, where, of the approximately 700 bee species, only five are social bees that live in hives and produce honey. The rest are “solitary” bees, with no social hierarchy. These bees live alone, forage and fend for themselves. Moreover, they play an important role in our world.

A new study has reported alarming findings about the fertility traits of these solitary bees. Titled “Lasting impacts of sublethal prepupal heatwaves on fertility-related traits of the solitary bee Osmia bicornis,” the study reveals that simulated sublethal heatwaves during the prepupal stage alter fertility-related traits in solitary bees.

The study investigated the effects of a field-realistic, three-day fluctuating heatwave regime, with temperatures below 40°C and below the critical thermal maximum (CTmax) for this species, replicating the temperature conditions experienced in the UK during July 2022. After the bees overwintered following juvenile exposure, researchers assessed male sperm and female oocytes to examine the effects on reproductive traits.

The study found that, although there was no direct effect on survival to adulthood, male sperm counts were reduced by 33% and sperm motility by 53%, while sperm length was shortened by 17%. In females, oocyte production was reduced by 15%, along with a 17% reduction in terminal oocyte volume.

In bees and many other insect species, testicular development and spermatogenesis usually begin during the prepupal and pupal phases, when the heat stress regime was applied. This period has been found to be thermally sensitive, with heat stress interfering with normal reproductive development. The heatwave simulated in the study may therefore have impaired testicular development and initial sperm production, reducing sperm numbers in adult bees despite the months of overwintering between exposure and assessment.

Reductions in sperm numbers and quality may affect fertilization. Previous research has found that elevated temperatures of 29°C led to decreased sperm abundance, reducing egg fertilization rates and embryo development.

Although this experimental approach does not allow for a detailed exploration of thermal thresholds or breakpoints, it provides valuable insights into the potential biological consequences of ecologically realistic, fluctuating heat stress, as experienced during heatwaves in nature.

Solitary bees are crucial to the pollination of several crops, including cucurbits, blueberries, cranberries, tomatoes, eggplants, apples, plums and almonds, as well as various lentils and other crops. These bees are efficient pollinators because they carry dry pollen across their bodies, potentially making them more effective than honeybees for certain crops.

This is not an isolated area of research. Another study published in 2023 also examined the damaging effects of heat on sperm production in bees, focusing on bumblebees of the genus Bombus.The study found that exposing whole male bumblebees to 4°C for 85 minutes, isolated seminal vesicles to 4°C for 85 minutes ,and whole males to 4°C for 48 hours did not significantly affect sperm viability.

However, after 85 minutes at 45°C, males showed significantly reduced sperm viability. This suggests that short-term heatwaves below the critical thermal maximum could substantially reduce male bumblebee fertility, with potential population-level consequences.

The thermal tolerance of worker bumblebees is relatively high, with a CTmax of approximately 48–55°C, making it unlikely that they would experience these temperatures under ordinary conditions, even with climate warming. However, the thermal tolerance of whole organisms often exceeds that of their reproductive cells. Many insects can be sterilised by exposure to temperatures well below their upper thermal tolerance.

Why Should This Matter?

Pollination, a crucial process for maintaining the planet’s biodiversity and food security, is primarily driven by bees and other insect pollinators.

In agricultural systems, pollinators are essential for producing a wide range of crops, including orchard fruits, horticultural crops and forage, as well as seeds for root and fibre crops. Pollinators contribute to approximately 35% of global crop production by volume, enhancing the yields of 87 of the 115 major food crops and numerous medicinal plants.(FOA data)

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Bees pollinating on a flower.Image credit:Pexels

The benefits of pollination extend beyond improving the quantity and quality of food production. Pollinator-dependent plants contribute to the production of many micronutrients and vitamins that are important for human nutrition and dietary diversity.

The Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) also points out that more than 80% of wild flowering plant species are pollinated by animals, mostly insects.

Bees and other pollinators face significant threats, with current extinction rates estimated to be 100 to 1,000 times higher than natural background rates due to human activities. According to the International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN), national Red List assessments indicate that around 40% of bee species assessed in some regions are at risk of extinction, while 16.5% of vertebrate pollinators are at risk of global extinction.

Habitat loss and fragmentation, intensive farming, monocultures, pesticides, pests, diseases and climate change-related impacts, such as temperature extremes and shifts in flowering times, are major contributing factors to pollinator decline. These pressures can disrupt the balance between flowering plants and their pollinators.

To establish whether the observed reproductive changes translate into fewer offspring, declining populations or substantially reduced pollination under real-world conditions, further research and evidence are needed. However, habitat fragmentation, climate change, extreme heat and biodiversity loss are already placing increasing pressure on ecosystems. Understanding how these stressors affect the reproductive capacity of bees is therefore essential to assessing the potential long-term consequences for biodiversity and food security.

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Climate Science Faces a Deadline: Can the IPCC Deliver Before the 2028 Global Stocktake?

Climate protesters demand stronger action on global warming, highlighting the urgency of translating climate science into effective policy and international commitments.

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Climate protesters march through a city street holding “There Is No Planet B” placards during a climate change demonstration.
Climate protesters carry “There Is No Planet B” placards during a demonstration, calling for stronger action to address the climate crisis.Image credit:Pexels

Disagreement over the publication schedule of the world’s leading climate assessment has exposed a growing tension between the urgency of climate action and the need for equitable scientific participation.

The world’s leading climate science body is approaching a critical decision over when to publish its next major assessment, raising concerns that governments could enter the next phase of global climate negotiations without a comprehensive review of the latest climate science.

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has repeatedly failed to reach agreement on a timeline for its Seventh Assessment Report (AR7), with disagreements among member countries continuing for nearly three years. The dispute comes ahead of the second Global Stocktake under the Paris Agreement, scheduled to conclude in 2028, when countries will assess collective progress towards addressing climate change.

A Reuters report published on October 9 reported that the deadlock could complicate international climate negotiations. The disagreement centres on whether the IPCC should complete its three main working-group assessments in time to inform the 2028 process or allow additional time for drafting, review and approval.

The IPCC’s assessments inform international climate agreements and national decisions on emissions reduction, adaptation and climate finance. A delay could therefore affect not only when scientific findings become available, but also how governments use them to shape their next climate commitments.

A clash between urgency and equitable participation

The disagreement has exposed differences between countries over the pace of climate action and the conditions required to produce credible scientific assessments.

More than 30 countries, including European nations and small-island states, have supported efforts to complete the assessments in time for the 2028 Global Stocktake. They argue that governments need the most recent scientific evidence when evaluating whether existing climate commitments are sufficient.

Other countries, including India, China, Russia and Saudi Arabia, have called for more time. They argue that a compressed timetable could undermine the ability of researchers and governments in developing countries to review the reports and participate meaningfully in the assessment process.

These concerns matter because IPCC assessments involve extensive scientific drafting, expert review and government scrutiny. Researchers from countries with fewer resources may face constraints in funding, research infrastructure and the time available to contribute to a process that relies heavily on scientific expertise.

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Electric vehicle charging point in an urban city.Representational image.Image credit:Pexels

However, the disagreement has also prompted concerns that a delay could weaken the connection between climate science and international decision-making. The competing positions raise a fundamental question: how can the IPCC ensure both timely assessments and fair participation without compromising scientific quality?

Carbon Brief reported in April that governments had failed to agree on the timeline across five consecutive IPCC sessions. The IPCC chair, Jim Skea, said the impasse had produced little progress on resolving the issue, although work on the assessments was continuing.

The disagreement does not mean that climate research has stopped. Scientists are continuing to draft the working-group reports, but uncertainty over the final schedule creates difficulties for planning reviews, meetings and the wider assessment process.

Why the 2028 deadline matters

The Global Stocktake is a central mechanism of the Paris Agreement. It evaluates how far countries have progressed towards the agreement’s goals and informs subsequent national climate plans.

The second stocktake is due to conclude in 2028 at COP33. If the IPCC’s working-group reports are not ready in time, negotiators could have to rely on existing assessments alongside other available scientific evidence.

The IPCC’s Seventh Assessment Report covers three broad areas: the physical science of climate change; climate impacts, adaptation and vulnerability; and options for reducing greenhouse gas emissions. Together, these assessments help governments understand the scale of climate risks and the choices available to address them.

The upcoming IPCC-65 meeting in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia, scheduled for October 12–16, is therefore an important opportunity for governments to seek agreement on the timetable. The outcome could determine whether the assessment process remains aligned with the 2028 stocktake.

For India and other developing countries, the debate has implications beyond scheduling. Their participation in climate assessments can influence how regional vulnerabilities, development priorities and adaptation needs are represented in the scientific evidence used by policymakers.

The challenge for the IPCC is to reconcile two objectives: delivering scientific findings when governments need them and ensuring that the process includes researchers from across regions and income levels.

As the meeting approaches, the question is no longer simply when the next climate assessment will be published. It is whether the international community can establish a timeline that preserves scientific credibility, broad participation and the usefulness of climate evidence for decisions that will shape the planet’s warming future.

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Extreme Heat Threatens Pregnancies, Exposing Gaps in Climate Adaptation Plans

Extreme heat is emerging as a growing threat to pregnancy and childbirth. Research from India and an international survey highlight the risks to maternal and newborn health, underscoring the need for stronger healthcare protections and climate adaptation plans.

Jishnu P

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Close-up of a pregnant woman gently resting her hand on her abdomen.
Rising temperatures are increasing concerns about maternal and newborn health, highlighting the need to protect pregnant women from extreme heat.Image credit:Pexels

Evidence from Tamil Nadu and a new international survey shows how rising temperatures threaten maternal and newborn health, with outdoor workers and rural women facing particular risks.

Extreme heat is emerging as a growing threat to pregnancy and childbirth, but climate adaptation plans risk overlooking the women and newborns most vulnerable to its effects. New international survey findings, alongside research from Tamil Nadu, point to a widening public-health challenge as rising temperatures threaten maternal health and expose inequalities in access to safe healthcare.

At least 73% of maternal healthcare professionals surveyed across five countries reported an increase in heat-related cases or complications affecting pregnant women over the past five years, according to a survey commissioned by global charitable foundation Wellcome. Meanwhile, 76% reported an increase in heat-related complications affecting foetal or newborn health.

The findings were highlighted by Simon Stiell, executive secretary of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), at an event organised by Wellcome during the Pre-COP ministerial meeting in Fiji on October 5, ahead of the COP31 climate conference in Türkiye in November.

“Rising temperatures mean rising danger in pregnancy,” Stiell said, pointing to links between extreme heat during pregnancy and premature birth, stillbirth, low birth weight and maternal complications.

The survey covered 1,000 maternal healthcare professionals working in Australia, Brazil, India, the United Kingdom and Zimbabwe. It found that 81% were concerned that extreme heat would increasingly threaten maternal, foetal and newborn health without further action. Nearly all respondents had cared for a pregnant woman or baby whose health they believed had been affected by extreme heat, while 92% wanted more training and resources to protect pregnant women.

The findings highlight a critical gap in climate preparedness: although heat-health warnings are becoming increasingly important, pregnancy and newborn care are not always adequately incorporated into plans for responding to extreme temperatures.

Evidence from India highlights unequal risks

Research from Tamil Nadu adds to the growing evidence that occupational heat exposure can have serious consequences for pregnancy.

A prospective cohort study published in BJOG: An International Journal of Obstetrics & Gynaecology examined 800 pregnant women engaged in moderate to heavy physical work in Tamil Nadu. Researchers found that 47.3% experienced high occupational heat exposure. Among heat-exposed women, 29.6% experienced moderate dehydration, while 17.4% recorded an increase in core body temperature.

The study found that women exposed to high occupational heat had 2.4 times the adjusted odds of miscarriage and 2.3 times the adjusted odds of an adverse pregnancy outcome. The latter included outcomes such as miscarriage, preterm birth, low birth weight and stillbirth.

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Children are attending school in temporary learning centres following the devastating floods in Nuwakot, Nepal, where climate change and glacial ice melt have played a significant factor.Image credit: UNICEF/Laxmi Prasad Ngakhusi

The researchers also found that high occupational heat exposure was associated with twice the adjusted odds of an adverse outcome at birth. Although the study establishes an association rather than proving that heat alone caused each outcome, it provides evidence of the risks faced by pregnant women working in hot conditions.

A separate observational cohort study involving 680 pregnant women across six Tamil Nadu districts examined differences between rural and urban populations. Researchers found that 55% of rural participants experienced heat exposure above the study’s permissible limit, compared with 45% of urban participants.

Rural women were also more likely to report heat-strain symptoms, including excessive thirst, fatigue, headaches and dizziness. After accounting for potential confounding factors, heat-exposed rural women had nearly twice the risk of adverse pregnancy outcomes and three times the risk of adverse birth outcomes compared with the study’s urban comparison group.

The study also found a fourfold higher risk of miscarriage among heat-exposed rural women during the first trimester compared with urban women. The researchers identified socioeconomic disadvantage, limited awareness of heat risks and reduced access to welfare facilities as factors that could contribute to rural women’s greater vulnerability.

Evidence from a separate study of 126,273 pregnancies recorded in India and Pakistan reinforces the concern. Researchers found that higher average maximum temperatures during the second trimester were associated with an increased risk of preterm birth. The relative risk was 1.05 for the study’s five-degree temperature contrast, indicating a 5% relative increase in risk—not a five-percentage-point increase in the absolute risk of premature birth.

Together, these studies suggest that heat exposure is not simply an environmental inconvenience during pregnancy. It can coincide with dehydration, physically demanding work and barriers to healthcare, creating risks that are unevenly distributed across communities.

From warnings to protection

Stiell warned that the effects of extreme heat are not shared equally. Pregnant women who work outdoors, live in poorly ventilated housing, travel long distances to clinics or depend on healthcare facilities without reliable electricity, water or cooling cannot be protected through public advice alone.

“Staying cool” is not a realistic option for families without access to cool spaces, he argued. Without targeted intervention, extreme heat could deepen existing inequalities in maternal healthcare, making a safe pregnancy increasingly dependent on income, geography and access to medical services.

Stiell outlined three priorities for governments: integrating pregnancy and newborn care into climate adaptation and heat-health planning; translating evidence into practical protection through healthcare-worker training, heat alerts and safer facilities; and improving data to identify where risks are growing and which interventions are effective.

For India, the findings have implications for heat-action plans, occupational safety and maternal healthcare. Measures could include heat-risk guidance during antenatal visits, better protection for pregnant outdoor workers, improved ventilation and cooling in maternity facilities, and reliable access to water and electricity during extreme heat.

The UN climate chief also called for adaptation-finance commitments agreed at COP30 in Belém, Brazil, to be delivered and for countries to work towards mobilising $1.3 trillion annually for developing countries.

Health is expected to remain a key priority in preparations for COP31, scheduled for November 9–20, 2026, in Türkiye’s Antalya province, under the Turkish presidency and with Australia leading negotiations.

The emerging evidence makes the policy challenge clear: protecting pregnant women and newborns must become part of climate resilience, rather than an afterthought. As temperatures rise, governments will need to assess climate action not only by emissions targets and financial commitments, but also by whether healthcare systems can protect people during pregnancy and give newborns a safe start to life.

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