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AI goes nuclear, but what are the risks?

As technology companies invest in small modular reactors (SMRs) to meet energy demands for AI data centers in the future, how safe are they?

Karthik Vinod

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Unsplash data center
Credit: Joshua Sortino / Unsplash

As AI fever runs high, BBC reported a US-based start-up, Digital Realty that plans to use small nuclear reactors to power their AI data center in Portland, Oregon. But why?

In an interview with BBC, Stephanie Hare, an AI commentator and technology researcher, said that powering data centers in general are very energy-intensive, leaving behind a massive carbon footprint in addition to the usage of water.

Gallons of water, for instance, functions as a coolant to counteract overheating in machines when it busy processes user requests.

Hare noted that computers there can use up to ‘half a liter’ of water to process requests from a single user at a time.  

However, operating an AI data center is going to consume even more power.

“A normal data center needs 32 megawatts of power flowing into the building. For an AI data center it’s 80 megawatts,” said Chris Sharp, Chief Technology Officer (CTO) of Digital Realty, to the BBC. But it’s not just Digital Realty though participating in this enterprise.

Small Modular Reactors can generate one-third the energy of a conventional nuclear power plant and are said to be cheap based on design.

In 2023, The Verge reported Microsoft potentially showing interests in using ‘small modular reactors’ (SMRs) to fuel their AI data centers. These reactors split uranium nuclei with slow-moving neutrons, very much like conventional nuclear power plants.

However, lending a nuclear reactor to commercial establishments comes with its challenges. For one, only skilled workers can be relied upon to operate properly and manage the nuclear reactor.

Whereas for another, is for the nuclear reactor with its safety mechanisms to manage waste. However, scientists at Stanford University and University of British Columbia had worked out some technical flaws in SMRs. They reached the opposite conclusion to what SMR advocates had to say. They said there’s going to be more radioactive leakage owing to the small design that can’t absorb and take away byproduct neutrons from the chain reaction.

However, these generate one-third the energy of a conventional nuclear power plant and are said to be cheaper to design and manufacture. But how soon can they be deployed?

In the US, their Nuclear Regulatory Commission has authorized one such SMR design, by NuScale although it will be demonstrated only in 2029.

Spencer Lamb, Chief Commercial Officer at British data center developed Kao Data, said in the same BBC report, “I’ve heard about SMRs, but it will take a long time to deploy a nuclear-configured data center in the UK, and AI is happening now.”

BBC interviewed Dr Doug Parr, who’s chief scientist of the non-profit environmental activist group, Greenpeace UK, who labeled the unfolding story about SMRs powering AI data centers as mere ‘hype’. He said tech companies will develop cold feet when they realize that SMRs would prove to be much costly when they’re finally demonstrated. “Unrealistic hype lies behind the cost estimates for SMRs,” said Dr Parr. “This hype will fall away as delays and difficulties emerge.”

However, Dr Michael Bluck a nuclear engineer at Imperial College London, UK was more optimistic – at least in a technical standpoint. He said, “There’s no reason why a small fast reactor can’t power a data center, except that you have to get it past the regulator.”

What about public trust though? The BBC doesn’t cover that. Won’t they have the final say in this case, since it involves nuclear energy? At least in history, nuclear energy has been a point of contention in the West, with public suspecting whether authorities were truly capable of ensuring safeguards against radioactive leakages and waste management. In Germany, policy failure to reassure the public actually led to the wide-spread phase out of nuclear reactors. Public trust is hard to achieve, but it takes the government and scientists to trust them back.

In the UK back in 1957, local farmers in Cumbria, England had suspected radioactive leakages from the Sellafield nuclear plant. However, authorities and scientists didn’t pay attention to the farmer’s concerns of a leak, until farmers strenuously lobbied to get the site checked for by scientists – later positively verifying the claims, leading to the shutdown of the plant.

The point isn’t that nuclear energy is somehow more unsafe compared to other forms of energy, say renewable energy. The numbers of countries operating nuclear reactors have actually expanded to 32 countries, including developing countries, with some 436 reactors operational of today.

Yes, catastrophe has occurred in the past – there’s the infamous Chernobyl and Fukushima events. The US alone had witnessed the Three Mile Island nuclear disaster in 1979. But we don’t want that to happen again.

The point is – paradoxically – we’ll never know how safe a technology is, unless we’ve already tested them.

But before that we need to keep the dialogue on as we discuss and discover hidden risks.

EDUNEWS & VIEWS

Is Something Really Wrong With India’s Education System?

From NEET paper leaks to education spending and ASER learning outcomes, here’s what the data reveals about the strengths and weaknesses of India’s education system.

Joe Jacob

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India's education system challenges

A Sonam Wangchuk hunger strike over exam leaks has put education back in the headlines. The data underneath the headlines tells a more complicated story about India’s education system than any single protest can.

On a hot July afternoon at Jantar Mantar, New Delhi, Sonam Wangchuk sat on an indefinite hunger strike for the third week running. The Ladakhi educationist, known for decades of quiet work on schooling in the trans-Himalayan region long before he became a familiar face on the evening news, was not protesting for Ladakh this time. He was protesting for something that touches every Indian household with a child preparing for a competitive exam: the integrity of the system that decides who gets to become a doctor, an engineer, or a civil servant.

His demand was blunt — the resignation of the Union Education Minister, over the repeated leaking of question papers, most recently NEET-UG. By mid-July, doctors at Delhi’s Safdarjung Hospital had moved him in for observation as his health declined. Whatever one makes of the politics around him, the strike forced a question into the open that has been sitting quietly under the surface for years: is something actually wrong with Indian education, or is this one more news cycle that will pass once the cameras move on?

The honest answer, once you sit with the numbers, is both. Some things are visibly getting better. Others have been broken for so long that the system now treats the brokenness as normal.

India’s Education System Is at a Crossroads

Start with the trigger for Wangchuk’s protest, because it is the most visible symptom. In May 2026, the National Testing Agency did something it had never done before — it cancelled NEET-UG itself, the exam held on 3 May, after a leak scandal, and handed the matter to the CBI. It was not the first time. NEET’s predecessor, AIPMT, was scrapped entirely in 2015 after the Supreme Court called it a national shame. NEET 2024 produced 67 students with a perfect score of 720 out of 720, an anomaly that triggered nationwide protests; the Supreme Court eventually let the exam stand but ordered a limited re-test for 1,563 candidates after acknowledging that at least 155 students had directly benefited from a leak in Bihar. Independent tallies of major recruitment and entrance exams — NEET, UGC-NET, state police and teacher-eligibility tests among them — count at least eight to a dozen serious leak episodes between 2024 and 2026 alone.

This is not a story about one exam or one government. It is a story about what happens when a country tries to sort tens of millions of young people through a small number of high-stakes gates, using an examination infrastructure that has not kept pace with the scale of demand it is asked to manage. Roughly 2.3 million candidates sit for NEET each year. When the gate itself cannot be trusted, the damage is not abstract — it lands on families who spent years and savings preparing a child for a fair shot.

The Money Question Nobody Quite Answers

Wangchuk’s protest is about exams, but the deeper argument about Indian education has always been about money — specifically, how much of it the state is willing to commit.

In 1966, the Kothari Commission recommended that India spend 6 percent of GDP on education. Sixty years on, the country has never got there. The Economic Survey’s own figures show total education spending — centre and states combined — sliding from 2.8 percent of GDP in 2017-19 to 2.7 percent in 2021-22, before edging back to around 2.9 percent more recently. The Union Budget for 2026-27 gave education its largest rupee allocation ever, ₹1,39,289 crore, split roughly ₹83,562 crore for schools and ₹55,727 crore for higher education. The headline sounds generous. But measured against a Union Budget that has itself grown to over ₹53 lakh crore, education’s share has actually shrunk — down to about 2.6 percent of the total outlay, compared with roughly 3 percent a few budgets ago. The rupee number grows every year; the priority, measured as a share of what the country spends on everything else, has been quietly declining.

Compare this with what other economies do. Developed nations typically spend upward of 10 percent of GDP on education when private and public spending are combined; India’s combined centre-state figure sits closer to 4-5 percent, and the Union government’s own direct spending is a much smaller sliver of that. This is the least politically charged number in the whole debate — it has stayed roughly the same distance from the 6 percent target under governments of every stripe. That consistency is itself a data point: underfunding education relative to ambition is not a partisan failure, it is a structural one.

Where the National Education Policy actually stands

Much of the reform activity in Indian education over the last five years has been an attempt to implement the National Education Policy of 2020, the third such policy since Independence and the first sweeping rewrite of school and higher education since 1986. It is worth pausing on where that project actually stands, because the honest picture is split down the middle: the school-level changes are running roughly on schedule, while the bigger institutional promises in higher education are not.

On the school side, the old 10+2 structure has been replaced by the 5+3+3+4 framework — foundational, preparatory, middle and secondary stages — and the National Curriculum Framework for School Education, which spells out what each stage is meant to teach, was notified in 2023. The push for mother-tongue or regional-language instruction up to Class 5 is underway, unevenly, across states. Crucially, the foundational literacy and numeracy campaign under NIPUN Bharat is the same effort ASER 2024 credited for the reading and arithmetic gains described later in this piece — which suggests that where NEP’s school-level reforms have actually reached classrooms, the data backs them up.

Higher education tells a different story. The Academic Bank of Credits, which lets students bank and transfer credits across institutions, is operational and covers more than 620 universities. The Common University Entrance Test is in its sixth year and now draws over 25 lakh applicants. The four-year undergraduate degree with multiple entry and exit points has been adopted by most central universities, though state universities have been slower, citing faculty shortages and infrastructure gaps. Three foreign university campuses are now running on Indian soil under the new rules.

But NEP’s central institutional promise — a single Higher Education Commission of India to replace the UGC, AICTE, NCTE and the tangle of professional councils that currently regulate different corners of higher education — has not materialised. A bill to create it was introduced in 2024 and lapsed without being passed. The UGC and AICTE continue to function exactly as they did before the policy was announced. And the policy’s own financial ask has not been met either: NEP 2020 revives the same 6 percent of GDP figure the Kothari Commission proposed in 1966, while actual spending sits closer to 2.9 to 3.2 percent — the policy, in other words, inherited the funding gap rather than closing it.

There is a federal dimension to this too, worth noting without taking a side in it. Tamil Nadu, Kerala and West Bengal have resisted the three-language formula and declined to sign the MoUs required for the PM-SHRI school scheme, arguing the conditions attached amount to a central mandate on a subject the Constitution places on the Concurrent List, shared between the Centre and the states. The Centre, in turn, withheld Samagra Shiksha funds from states that did not sign, a decision Tamil Nadu has contested in the Supreme Court. Whatever the merits on either side, it illustrates a structural reality that any national education reform in India has to work through: education is not one government’s to redesign alone, and disagreements over pace and design are, in some sense, built into the system rather than a sign that the system has failed.

What that money buys — or doesn’t

Numbers on spending, and on policy intent, only matter if they translate into what children in a classroom actually know. Here the picture, to its credit, is not uniformly grim.

The Annual Status of Education Report (ASER) 2024, which surveys reading and arithmetic among roughly 6.5 lakh rural children, found the sharpest improvement in learning outcomes since 2022 — the biggest gains coming, notably, in government rather than private schools. The share of Class 3 government-school students able to read a Class 2-level text rose from 16.3 percent to 23.4 percent between 2022 and 2024, and those able to do subtraction jumped from about 20 percent to nearly 28 percent over the same period.

Read that again, though, and the improvement looks smaller against the baseline it started from. Even after this recovery, roughly three in four Class 3 students still cannot read a simple Class 2-level passage, and about two in three Class 3 students and seven in ten Class 5 students still struggle with basic arithmetic. This is the uncomfortable middle ground Indian education sits in: real, measurable progress, layered on top of a foundational learning crisis so deep that “progress” still leaves most children behind grade level.

Teachers: more of them, but not where they are needed

The government’s own UDISE+ data, released this year, shows school education crossing a symbolic threshold — over 1.02 crore teachers nationwide, up from 94.8 lakh just three years earlier. Pupil-teacher ratios have improved across every level and now sit comfortably inside the 30:1 ceiling the National Education Policy recommends. Dropout rates have fallen too: at the secondary level, from 8.2 percent in 2024-25 to 7 percent in 2025-26; at the preparatory level, from 2.3 percent to 1.8 percent over the same year.

Set against this, a Parliamentary Standing Committee report flagged something the aggregate numbers hide — vacancy rates of 30 to 50 percent in central schools like Kendriya Vidyalayas and Navodaya Vidyalayas, and roughly 10 lakh unfilled teaching posts in Samagra Shiksha-funded state schools, more than 7.5 lakh of them at the elementary level. A national average can look healthy while entire school networks remain understaffed. The pattern recurs across almost every education indicator in India: the country-wide figure moves in the right direction while the distribution underneath it stays deeply uneven, with rural districts, tribal blocks and a handful of states consistently carrying the shortfall.

Higher education’s arithmetic problem

Beyond school, the picture gets harder still. The Gross Enrolment Ratio in higher education — the share of 18-to-23-year-olds actually enrolled — has climbed from around 24 percent a decade ago to roughly 32-33 percent now. NITI Aayog has said India would need something like 2,500 universities to hit the NEP’s own target of 50 percent GER by 2035; at the current pace of institution-building, that target looks out of reach. India has fewer than 1,400 registered universities today, expanding at a rate that will not double, let alone nearly triple, in time.

The other pillar, told through the same numbers

Education rarely gets discussed alongside its natural twin, but the comparison is instructive precisely because it shows the pattern is not confined to schools and colleges. India’s public health spending has hovered around 1.9 to 2 percent of GDP for years, still short of the National Health Policy’s own 2.5 percent target that was supposed to be met by 2025. The global benchmark the World Health Organization points to for universal health coverage is 5 percent; the worldwide average is closer to 6.7 percent. Union government health spending as a share of GDP has actually fallen in recent budgets even as state governments have picked up more of the load — a near-exact echo of what is happening with education, where rupee totals rise while their share of national output and of the total budget quietly slips.

Put the two pillars side by side and a single story emerges, not of neglect exactly, but of a state that keeps announcing bigger numbers while the underlying commitment — measured against the size of the economy and the scale of need — stays roughly where it always was.

So, is something wrong?

Depending on which slice of data you hold up, you can tell two honest but very different stories about Indian education. One is a story of undeniable movement: more teachers, better pupil-teacher ratios, falling dropout rates, rising rural learning scores, a school system now generating one of the largest integrated education databases anywhere in the world through UDISE+. The other is a story of a system that still asks millions of families to gamble their child’s future on an exam whose integrity keeps failing, that has never come close to the funding levels its own commissions recommended sixty years ago, and where a majority of ten-year-olds still cannot read a book meant for eight-year-olds.

Both stories are true at once. That is, in fact, the most accurate way to describe where Indian education stands in 2026 — not collapsing, not thriving, but a system whose gains keep getting undercut by the parts nobody has fixed for decades: chronic underfunding relative to ambition, an examination architecture that has not scaled with demand, and a persistent gap between what the national average shows and what a child in an under-resourced district actually experiences.

Wangchuk’s hunger strike will end, one way or another, and the news cycle will move to something else. The data underneath it will still be there, largely unchanged, waiting for whoever is willing to look at it honestly — not as a political weapon, but as an unfinished national project that both major pillars of any developing country, education and health, still deserve.

Sources: UDISE+ 2025-26 Report (Ministry of Education);ASER 2024 (Pratham/ASER Centre); Economic Survey 2024-25 and 2025-26; Union Budget documents 2026-27; Parliamentary Standing Committee on Education reports; NITI Aayog statements on higher education; National Health Policy 2017 and WHO benchmarks on health financing;

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What Is Civilisational Diplomacy? Understanding India’s Newest Foreign Policy Tool

What is civilisational diplomacy? Learn how India is using shared heritage, culture and history to strengthen strategic partnerships with countries like Indonesia.

Dipin Damodharan

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India and Indonesia strengthen ties through civilisational diplomacy
PM Modi and President Prabowo Subianto at the Prambanan Temple complex in Yogyakarta, Indonesia, during their joint visit to launch the temple's restoration project, July 2026.Image credit: PIB/India

India is increasingly using civilisational diplomacy to strengthen its foreign policy by drawing on shared history, religion, culture and heritage. From Buddhist diplomacy to temple restoration projects in Indonesia, this emerging strategy blends cultural ties with economic, security and geopolitical partnerships in an evolving Indo-Pacific landscape.

Every few years, a new phrase enters the vocabulary of Indian foreign policy. There was “non-alignment” during the Cold War, “Look East” in the 1990s, and “Act East” after 2014. Lately, another term has been showing up in official statements and think-tank papers: civilisational diplomacy.

It sounds abstract, maybe even a little grand. But strip away the jargon and the idea is fairly simple: instead of building relationships with other countries only around trade figures and security pacts, use the older, deeper connections — shared religion, language, epics, art, trade routes that go back centuries — as a foundation that makes the newer, harder cooperation easier to build.

So What Does The Term Civilisational Diplomacy Actually Mean?

Traditional diplomacy runs on interests: two governments decide they need each other for defence, energy, or market access, and they sign agreements accordingly. Soft power, a term coined by the American scholar Joseph Nye, is about a country’s culture, values and policies making it attractive to others — something like the global popularity of Indian Bollywood or Korean K-pop.

Civilisational diplomacy is a step further back in time. It leans on ties that predate the modern nation-state altogether — a shared epic, a common script, a religion that travelled along old trade routes — and treats that inheritance as a working asset in present-day foreign policy, not just a talking point for a state banquet speech.

India’s most visible version of this has been built around Buddhism. Relics of the Buddha have been sent on tour to Thailand, Mongolia, Sri Lanka and Vietnam, drawing crowds in the hundreds of thousands. India has helped restore Buddhist and Hindu heritage sites well beyond its own borders — Angkor Wat in Cambodia, historic pagodas in Myanmar, and temples in Sri Lanka. The idea driving all of it is the same: countries that share a civilisational thread with India are often easier to talk to about everything else, from trade corridors to maritime security.

The India–Indonesia Version, Up Close

The most recent, and probably most fully worked-out, example of this approach played out during Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s state visit to Indonesia in early July 2026 — the opening leg of a longer tour that also took him to Australia and New Zealand.

India and Indonesia don’t share a border, a colonial history, or even a dominant religion today. What they do share is older than either government: Sanskrit loanwords still used in the Indonesian language, an Indonesian national airline named Garuda after the mythical bird of Hindu tradition, and a national epic tradition that draws heavily on the Ramayana and Mahabharata, still performed as ballet and shadow puppetry across Java and Bali.

Indonesian President Prabowo Subianto conferred on Modi the country’s highest civilian honour, the Bintang Adipurna, during the visit. The two leaders then travelled together to Prambanan, a ninth-century Hindu temple complex near Yogyakarta and one of Southeast Asia’s largest surviving Hindu monuments, where they jointly launched a restoration project. Under the plan, India’s Archaeological Survey will work alongside Indonesian heritage authorities to repair the smaller shrines scattered around the main complex, many of which have sat in ruins for decades. The two countries also agreed to mark 2026–27 as the “Tagore–Dewantara Year” of cultural and educational exchange, named after the Indian and Indonesian literary figures Rabindranath Tagore and Ki Hajar Dewantara.

What makes this moment interesting isn’t the temple visit by itself — it’s what it was bundled with. In the same set of talks, India and Indonesia signed on to a BrahMos missile deal, a maritime security framework covering the Sabang port near the Strait of Malacca, a rare-earth minerals partnership, plans to link India’s UPI payment system with Indonesia’s QRIS, and an agreement to help Indonesia build its own electronic voting machines. The temple restoration and the missile deal were announced in the same breath, not treated as separate tracks of the relationship.

Civilisational diplomacy in India's foreign policy
India is increasingly combining cultural heritage with strategic partnerships. Civilisational diplomacy is reshaping relations with Indonesia and beyond. Image credit: PIB/India

That pairing is really the point of civilisational diplomacy as a strategy: cultural gestures aren’t a substitute for hard security and economic cooperation, they’re the trust-building layer underneath it. A restoration project or a relic exhibition costs relatively little and rarely generates controversy, but it puts a government’s name on something the host country’s public already feels warmly about — which can make it politically easier to sign the bigger, more consequential deals alongside it.

Why Now, And Why This Framing

There’s a specific historical wrinkle in the India–Indonesia case that gets mentioned often in Indian commentary: in 1965, during the India–Pakistan war, Indonesia’s government was seen as closer to Pakistan. Six decades on, Jakarta is buying Indian missiles and inviting an Indian business school to open a campus on its soil. Officials frame that shift as proof that patient, culture-first diplomacy pays off over the long run — though it’s worth noting that plenty of factors besides shared heritage were behind that reversal, including changed regional security calculations and decades of separate bilateral work that had nothing to do with temples or epics.

It’s also fair to say this approach isn’t unique to India. China has pursued something structurally similar, using Buddhism as a soft-power thread through Belt and Road-linked countries such as Nepal, Sri Lanka, Myanmar and Mongolia — a reminder that civilisational diplomacy is as much a competitive tool in the region as a warm, cultural one.

The Honest Caveat

Civilisational diplomacy photographs well — a prime minister at a thousand-year-old temple makes for a better headline than a memorandum on customs procedures. That’s exactly why it’s worth watching critically rather than taking entirely at face value. Shared heritage doesn’t automatically translate into aligned strategic interests, and cultural warmth between two governments can cool quickly if underlying disputes over trade, migration or security resurface. What can genuinely be said is narrower: it’s a real and increasingly deliberate instrument in India’s foreign policy toolkit, it appears to be working as intended in the Indonesia relationship at this particular moment, and it’s most useful as a companion to concrete agreements rather than a replacement for them.

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Climate

Super El Niño Can’t Explain Mumbai’s Deluge, But Climate Change Can

Climate change is intensifying Mumbai’s rainfall, making downpours shorter and more extreme. Experts explain why El Niño alone cannot explain the floods.

Dipin Damodharan

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Mumbai Climate change rainfall is intensifying Mumbai's rainfall, making downpours shorter and more extreme. Experts explain why El Niño alone cannot explain the floods.
In the first seven days of July alone, the Mumbai saw four separate spells of triple-digit rainfall. Image credit/Special arrangement via V Jadhav

Mumbai Climate Change Rainfall: Mumbai’s recent deluge reflects a changing monsoon shaped by climate change as much as El Niño. Experts say warming oceans and a hotter atmosphere are driving fewer rainy days but far more intense downpours, exposing the city’s ageing drainage systems and growing vulnerability to urban flooding.

For most of June, the story of India’s monsoon was one of delay and deficit. A strengthening El Niño in the Pacific was pushing the Southwest Monsoon back, and by the end of the month the country was staring at a 40 percent rainfall shortfall. Then, within days, the sky flipped. As the monsoon shifted into an active phase, Mumbai and the rest of India’s west coast were hit by rain so intense that the national deficit collapsed from 40 percent to 20 percent in less than a week, as of July 6.

The whiplash has revived a debate among climate scientists that goes beyond this one season: it is no longer only about how much rain a city gets, but how that rain arrives.

A new briefing from Climate Trends lays out the case that a warmer atmosphere and rapidly heating oceans are loading the air with more moisture than before, which means fewer rainy days overall but far more violent bursts when the rain does come. El Niño, in this reading, still controls the timing and broad strength of the monsoon — but climate change is increasingly writing its character, turning downpours shorter, sharper, and more likely to overwhelm drains built for a gentler era.

Mumbai Climate Change Rainfall Intensifies Monsoon Extremes

Mumbai’s own numbers make the point. In the first seven days of July alone, the city saw four separate spells of triple-digit rainfall. The Colaba observatory logged 791 mm between July 1 and 7 — more than its entire climatological average for the whole month of 768.5 mm. Santa Cruz recorded 879 mm in the same window, brushing up against its monthly normal of 919.9 mm.

Mahesh Palawat, Vice President of Meteorology and Climate Change at Skymet Weather, pointed to a pile-up of weather systems as the immediate trigger. “Monsoon is presently in an active phase, with several weather systems prevailing across the country,” he said, noting a depression over Odisha and a cyclonic circulation over Maharashtra keeping both arms of the monsoon active, while continuous moisture from the Arabian Sea kept regenerating cloud cover over the state.

Dr Raghu Murtugudde, Emeritus Professor at the University of Maryland and a retired professor at IIT-Bombay, went further, arguing that the two forces driving this monsoon can no longer be pulled apart. “El Niño just cannot be separated from global warming anymore,” he said, describing how both the Arabian Sea and the Bay of Bengal were firing at once, feeding moisture into the core monsoon zone that eventually rides the Western Ghats and dumps over Mumbai.

Rewriting the Monsoon’s Rulebook

Palawat said the shift is structural, not a one-off. Weather systems that form in the Bay of Bengal, he explained, have started tracking west instead of northwest, while the Arabian Sea’s record warming has added extra moisture to the mix, keeping clouds regenerating for days on end wherever a weather system parks itself.

Dr K J Ramesh, former Director General of the India Meteorological Department, framed it as a break from the monsoon India used to know. “We know that the character of the monsoon has changed forever due to global warming,” he said. “Rains will be in the form of short duration and high intensity, whether there is an El Niño or no El Niño.” He pointed to Rajasthan, Gujarat and West Madhya Pradesh, where Western Disturbances alone can no longer explain the volume of rain now falling — an added moisture feed from the Arabian Sea, he said, has changed the pattern across the region.

Research cited in the briefing backs this up on a larger scale: the Middle East has been warming almost twice as fast as the rest of the inhabited world, and that heating has been linked to nearly half — 46 percent — of the intensified rainfall over Northwest India and Pakistan between 1979 and 2022, by pushing moisture northward out of the Arabian Sea.

The Long-term Drift

Zoom out from any single storm and the trend holds. Comparing 1981–2000 with 2001–2024, average monsoon rainfall has climbed by nearly 15 percent in Mumbai and 23 percent in Pune, according to data from the Council on Energy, Environment and Water (CEEW).

mumbai

Looking ahead, a separate report — Indian Coastal Region: Climate Projections 2021–2040 — suggests suburban Mumbai and parts of coastal Maharashtra and Gujarat should expect almost an additional week of heavy rain during the Southwest Monsoon in the coming years, alongside a projected 18 percent rise in the region’s already-massive 1,749 mm monsoon baseline. The same projections point to rising temperatures across the board, including a 1.3°C increase in both summer wet-bulb and winter minimum temperatures.

When Rain meets a City That isn’t Ready

Climate change, though, is only half the story of why Mumbai floods. The briefing frames urban flooding as a climate-plus-exposure problem — extreme rainfall colliding with a city whose drains, floodplains and green cover haven’t kept pace.

Ramesh was blunt about what that means on the ground. “It is no longer a matter of warnings anymore as substantial warnings have been issued well in time. It is now a preparedness and response issue,” he said, calling for full desilting of drains ahead of every monsoon and blaming unchecked concretisation for leaving trees with no room for their roots to breathe.

Dr Vishwas Chitale, a Fellow at CEEW, described the immediate toll of the past week’s rain — an orange alert in Mumbai and a red alert in Pune, both signalling rainfall heavy enough to disrupt daily life. He pointed to early warning systems and structured flood-resilience plans, like the one CEEW helped develop with the Thane Municipal Corporation, as the kind of groundwork cities now need. “We need to come out with some practical solutions on the ground to be able to manage urban flooding better,” he said.

Aarti Khosla, Director of Climate Trends, put the challenge in starker terms: extreme rainfall is no longer a possibility to plan around but a near-certainty to plan for. “The question is no longer whether extreme rainfall events will occur, but whether our cities are prepared to withstand them,” she said, calling for climate-resilient drainage, nature-based flood defences and urban planning that treats risk as a starting assumption rather than an afterthought.

The briefing’s broader point is a simple one: urban flooding happens when saturated drainage meets any of several triggers — torrential rain, storm surge, sea-level rise, groundwater seepage, or simply a city with too little permeable ground left to absorb water. Global warming is intensifying the rainfall trigger, and dense, paved-over cities are amplifying what happens next.

As one line from the briefing puts it, cities designed for yesterday’s climate are struggling to cope with today’s extremes — and, if the projections hold, tomorrow’s will demand even more.

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