As Japan expands its role as a global gas trader, a new analysis raises questions about whether Asia is importing energy security—or future climate liabilities. Japan US LNG trade generated lifecycle emissions equal to about 17 coal plants in a year, raising concerns about Asia’s growing dependence on imported gas.
The liquefied natural gas (LNG) cargoes that Japan resold across Asia over the past five years generated greenhouse gas emissions equivalent to running about 17 coal-fired power plants for a year, according to a new analysis by Zero Carbon Analytics.
The finding comes at a time when several Asian economies are turning to LNG as a bridge fuel in their energy transition strategies, while governments simultaneously pledge to cut emissions and expand renewable energy.
According to the analysis, Japan resold 16.5 billion kilograms of US-produced LNG to nine Asian countries between 2020 and 2025. Across the fuel’s lifecycle—from extraction and liquefaction in the United States to shipping, regasification and combustion in Asia—those sales generated an estimated 63.5 billion kilograms of carbon dioxide emissions.
The report highlights a little-discussed aspect of Asia’s gas trade: Japan is increasingly acting as a middleman in the global LNG market.
Japan’s US LNG Trade–Japan Now Resells More US LNG Than It Uses
Japan remains one of the world’s largest LNG importers, but its domestic demand for gas has been declining.
The analysis found that between 2021 and 2025, Japan sold 77 percent more US LNG to other countries than it imported for its own domestic consumption.
In 2024, Japan ranked as the world’s second-largest LNG trader. While Europe remained the largest destination for Japanese LNG resales, nearly one-third of those transactions were directed to Asian markets, including South Korea, China, India, Taiwan, Thailand, Singapore, Bangladesh, Pakistan and Malaysia.
Three of Japan’s top ten LNG resale destinations were Asian economies: South Korea, China and India.
The numbers reflect a broader shift in regional energy markets. Countries seeking alternatives to coal have increasingly turned to LNG, often presenting gas as a cleaner transition fuel. Yet critics argue that this framing overlooks emissions generated throughout the fuel supply chain.
The Methane Problem
Natural gas is composed primarily of methane, a greenhouse gas that has far greater warming potential than carbon dioxide in the short term.
According to the International Energy Agency’s 2026 Global Methane Tracker, methane emissions from fossil fuel operations remain near record levels globally.
The Zero Carbon Analytics analysis estimates that roughly 30 percent of total LNG lifecycle emissions arise from methane released during extraction, processing and transportation.
Methane can trap around 80 times more heat than carbon dioxide during the first two decades after it enters the atmosphere, making leakage a critical concern for climate scientists.
The report’s emissions calculations include every stage of the LNG supply chain rather than focusing solely on combustion emissions at power plants.
Energy Security or Fossil Fuel Lock-In?
The findings arrive amid renewed concerns over energy security following instability in the Middle East and uncertainty surrounding global gas supplies.
Several Asian economies, including Thailand, Vietnam and the Philippines, have expanded LNG imports in recent years to diversify their energy systems. However, the same dependence has exposed them to volatile international fuel prices.
Yu Sun Chin, Asia Regional Researcher at Zero Carbon Analytics, said the growing trade has implications beyond emissions.
“Japan’s growing role as an LNG trader has significant implications for Asia, which is absorbing close to a third of Japan’s excess supplies. Our calculations of the full lifecycle emissions of these LNG resales highlight the risk they pose to a region already vulnerable to extreme weather and other climate impacts. Rather than increasing reliance on gas as a ‘transition fuel’, transitioning to renewables offers Asia a clearer route to a clean and secure energy future.”
The concern is not merely about current emissions. Energy analysts warn that investments in LNG terminals, pipelines and related infrastructure could lock countries into fossil fuel consumption for decades.
Sam Reynolds, LNG and Gas Research Lead for Asia at the Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis (IEEFA), noted that Japanese companies are increasingly looking abroad as domestic demand declines.
“As Japan’s own LNG demand continues to decline, Japanese companies are becoming increasingly active traders of the fuel to other countries. At the same time, public and private financiers in Japan are investing in downstream infrastructure to stimulate demand and secure long-term customers.”
He added that such investments could leave emerging economies dependent on “a volatile, expensive fuel source for decades” while delaying renewable energy deployment.
Asia’s Climate Challenge
Asia is simultaneously one of the world’s fastest-growing energy markets and one of the regions most vulnerable to climate impacts.
From deadly heatwaves in South Asia to flooding in China and stronger tropical cyclones across Southeast Asia, the region is already experiencing the consequences of rising temperatures.
Climate scientists estimate that global emissions must nearly halve within this decade to keep the Paris Agreement’s 1.5°C goal within reach.
Against that backdrop, environmental groups argue that expanding LNG infrastructure risks undermining climate commitments.
Shruti Shukla, Senior Advocate for International Energy at the Natural Resources Defense Council (NRDC), said the region faces a strategic choice.
“Japan has long positioned itself as a regional energy and economic leader in Asia. That leadership should help accelerate a resilient clean energy transition across the region, not deepen dependence on another generation of imported fossil fuels.”
She warned that growing LNG imports expose countries to methane emissions, volatile fuel markets and costly infrastructure that could become obsolete as renewable technologies become cheaper.
The Economic Risks
The debate extends beyond climate concerns.
Researchers increasingly point to the possibility that LNG infrastructure built today may become stranded assets before the end of its expected lifespan.
Nawaphat Junkrajang, senior researcher at Climate Finance Network Thailand, cited research suggesting that nearly half of Thailand’s operating and proposed LNG terminal capacity could become economically unviable under the country’s climate commitments.
“Each additional resale cargo is not energy security. It is one more step into a lock-in the transition will eventually have to unwind,” he said.
Bangladesh faces similar concerns.
Dr Khondaker Golam Moazzem, Research Director at the Centre for Policy Dialogue, said new energy agreements and infrastructure investments could deepen dependence on imported LNG while narrowing opportunities for renewable energy investment.
A Growing Regional Debate
The analysis arrives as governments across Asia reassess their energy pathways.
Supporters of LNG argue that gas provides reliable electricity generation and can complement intermittent renewable sources. Critics counter that falling costs of solar, wind and battery storage are weakening the economic rationale for large-scale LNG expansion.
What is clear from the data is that Japan’s role in regional gas markets is evolving rapidly. The country is no longer simply a major LNG consumer; it has become a significant intermediary connecting US gas producers with Asian buyers.
As Asia balances energy security, affordability and climate goals, that role is likely to attract increasing scrutiny.
For policymakers, the question may no longer be whether LNG emits less carbon than coal at the point of combustion. Instead, it is whether a region racing to build a low-carbon future can afford to lock itself into another generation of fossil fuel infrastructure.