Earth
Bridging the Adaptation Finance Gap: India’s Case Before COP30
As COP30 approaches, India faces a widening adaptation finance gap, despite rising climate impacts and mounting economic losses
With COP30 in Brazil less than a month away, the world’s attention is turning to the elusive promise of adaptation finance — money meant not for cutting emissions, but for surviving their consequences. In New Delhi this week, a closed-door High-Level Roundtable on Adaptation Finance, organised by Climate Trends, brought together senior policymakers, economists, and global climate finance experts. The message that emerged was stark: India’s adaptation needs are vast, but the money isn’t flowing.
According to international estimates, while adaptation finance globally rose from USD 22 billion to USD 28 billion in 2022, developing countries require more than USD 350 billion annually to protect lives and livelihoods. India’s share of that unmet need remains enormous — and more than 60% of global adaptation finance still comes as loans, piling additional debt on already stressed economies.
“The geopolitics of the world is at an inflection point,” said Aarti Khosla, Director of Climate Trends. “Countries are wrestling with how to make the Global Goal on Adaptation practical and measurable. India is preparing to submit its first National Adaptation Plan. The quality of the finance also matters — because commitments made at multilateral fora are only as good as the systems that deliver them.”
The Growing Cost of Climate Impacts
India’s climate vulnerabilities are intensifying. Record-breaking heatwaves, erratic monsoons, floods, and agricultural losses have already dented GDP growth, with studies suggesting climate-linked economic damage could shave off 2–3% of India’s GDP by 2030. The country’s adaptation costs, as projected by several national and international assessments, could run into tens of billions annually.
Yet, domestic and international systems remain mismatched to that reality. “Adaptation needs to be built into a profitable market system that attracts private investment and creates entrepreneurial enterprise,” argued Abhishek Acharya, Director at the Ministry of Environment, Forest and Climate Change (MoEFCC). “We need a strong policy framework that enables even the last tier of governance — municipalities, panchayats — to access funding.”
The challenge, experts noted, isn’t just about the quantum of funds, but their design. India’s adaptation funding is fragmented across ministries and states, with little clarity on effectiveness. “We should be looking at adaptation-relevant expenditures,” said Amrita Goldar, Senior Fellow at the Indian Council for Research on International Economic Relations (ICRIER). “Looking through budgets at both central and state levels is a big task by itself. For adaptation, we don’t even have a sense of how technologies will evolve. When technologies are niche, private finance will not lead — public finance must.”
The Global Architecture and Local Realities
The Global Goal on Adaptation (GGA), first established under the Paris Agreement, remains largely conceptual — a vision still waiting for metrics. COP30 could change that, with countries expected to finalise indicators for tracking adaptation progress. Yet, experts warn that measurement alone won’t build resilience.
“If GGA indicators get finalised at COP30, they will become a yardstick for evaluation and performance,” said Pushp Bajaj, Programme Lead at Council on Energy, Environment and Water (CEEW). “But just measuring progress isn’t enough. The connections with real climate challenges must be explicit, and India should take a strong stand.”
For India, where agriculture, water, health, and heat stress are already colliding crises, effective adaptation requires reforming both global finance flows and domestic fiscal systems. Kathryn Miliken, Senior Climate Change Specialist at the Asian Development Bank (ADB), noted that adaptation finance forms only about 10% of total climate finance worldwide. “ADB is aiming for 30% of its portfolio to go toward adaptation,” she said. “But the larger challenge is mainstreaming adaptation into economic planning. It still hangs loosely as a standalone agenda.”
Governance Gaps and Subnational Needs
At the state and district levels, limited financial autonomy has hindered locally relevant adaptation measures. Arjun Dutt of CEEW observed, “Coastal embankments, water shelters — these are public goods. Local authorities are directly involved, but though we have devolution in the Constitution, financial powers have not been devolved.”
Experts argued that subnational access to climate finance — through mechanisms like resilience bonds, blended finance, and state adaptation funds — could be the next big step. “Adaptation is a local issue,” said Amir Bazaz, Head of Infrastructure and Climate at the Indian Institute for Human Settlements (IIHS). “We don’t have the capacity to develop projects that are locally embedded, and resources are insufficient. Investments are largely driven by returns, not resilience.”
The Politics of Adaptation
Beyond numbers, adaptation is deeply political. “We understand the global game of power evolving around energy,” said Ambassador Manjeev S. Puri, Distinguished Fellow at TERI. “It’s time for us to talk about adaptation in a louder manner — both locally and globally. Link adaptation to resilience, and you will find political buy-in.”
Ovais Sarmad, Vice Chair of the Greenhouse Gas Protocol, added a sobering global view: “We’re living in a world that’s moved from VUCA — volatile, uncertain, complex, ambiguous — to BANI — brittle, anxious, non-linear, incomprehensible. India must be actively engaged in discussions at the Standing Committee on Finance. Our position must be clear and people-centred.”
The Standing Committee on Finance (SCF), part of the UNFCCC structure, plays a key role in shaping how climate funds are allocated and monitored — including reforms in Multilateral Development Banks (MDBs). Several participants at the roundtable called for MDBs to increase concessional finance and reduce the loan-heavy structure of current adaptation flows.
Data, Delivery, and Diplomacy
For experts like Purnamita Dasgupta, Head of the Environmental and Resource Economics Unit at the Institute for Economic Growth, the way forward lies in clarity and pragmatism. “We want a lot of things, but we need to split this conversation into high-level messages and those we keep within our borders,” she said. “There’s no case for being overwhelmed. Development is the only solution. We should not wait for a magic number, nor ignore it.”
The final consensus from the roundtable was clear: India’s leadership on adaptation finance will depend on how well it aligns data, policy, and diplomacy. As the country prepares to submit its first National Adaptation Plan (NAP) to the UNFCCC, its approach could influence not just negotiations at COP30, but also how the Global South reframes adaptation as a cornerstone of economic growth.
“Adaptation is no longer a technical footnote to mitigation,” Khosla concluded. “It’s about protecting people, ensuring justice, and redesigning the financial systems that decide who gets to survive the climate crisis — and how.”
Earth
Life may have learned to breathe oxygen hundreds of millions of years earlier than thought
Early life on Earth has found an interetsing turning point. A new study by researchers at Massachusetts Institute of Technology suggests that some of Earth’s earliest life forms may have evolved the ability to use oxygen hundreds of millions of years before it became a permanent part of the planet’s atmosphere.
Oxygen is essential to most life on Earth today, but it was not always abundant. Scientists have long believed that oxygen only became a stable component of the atmosphere around 2.3 billion years ago, during a turning point known as the Great Oxidation Event (GOE). The new findings indicate that biological use of oxygen may have begun much earlier, potentially reshaping scientists’ understanding of how life evolved on Earth.
The study, published in the journal Palaeogeography, Palaeoclimatology, Palaeoecology, traces the evolutionary origins of a key enzyme that allows organisms to use oxygen for aerobic respiration. This enzyme is present in most oxygen-breathing life forms today, from bacteria to humans.
Scientists have long believed that oxygen only became a stable component of the atmosphere around 2.3 billion years ago, during a turning point known as the Great Oxidation Event (GOE). The new findings indicate that biological use of oxygen may have begun much earlier, potentially reshaping scientists’ understanding of how life evolved on Earth
MIT geobiologists found that the enzyme likely evolved during the Mesoarchean era, between 3.2 and 2.8 billion years ago—several hundred million years before the Great Oxidation Event.
The findings may help answer a long-standing mystery in Earth’s history: why it took so long for oxygen to accumulate in the atmosphere. Scientists know that cyanobacteria, the first organisms capable of producing oxygen through photosynthesis, emerged around 2.9 billion years ago. Yet atmospheric oxygen levels remained low for hundreds of millions of years after their appearance.
While geochemical reactions with rocks were previously thought to be the main reason oxygen failed to build up early on, the MIT study suggests biology itself may also have played a role. Early organisms that evolved the oxygen-using enzyme may have consumed small amounts of oxygen as soon as it was produced, limiting how much could accumulate in the atmosphere.
“This does dramatically change the story of aerobic respiration,” said Fatima Husain, postdoctoral researcher in MIT’s Department of Earth, Atmospheric and Planetary Sciences, said in a media statement. “Our study adds to this very recently emerging story that life may have used oxygen much earlier than previously thought. It shows us how incredibly innovative life is at all periods in Earth’s history.”
The research team analysed thousands of genetic sequences of heme-copper oxygen reductases—enzymes essential for aerobic respiration—across a wide range of modern organisms. By mapping these sequences onto an evolutionary tree and anchoring them with fossil and geological evidence, the researchers were able to estimate when the enzyme first emerged.
“The puzzle pieces are fitting together and really underscore how life was able to diversify and live in this new, oxygenated world
Tracing the enzyme back through time, the team concluded that oxygen use likely appeared soon after cyanobacteria began producing oxygen. Organisms living close to these microbes may have rapidly consumed the oxygen they released, delaying its escape into the atmosphere.
“Considered all together, MIT research has filled in the gaps in our knowledge of how Earth’s oxygenation proceeded,” Husain said. “The puzzle pieces are fitting together and really underscore how life was able to diversify and live in this new, oxygenated world.”
The study adds to a growing body of evidence suggesting that life on Earth adapted to oxygen far earlier than previously believed, offering new insights into how biological innovation shaped the planet’s atmosphere and the evolution of complex life.
Earth
The Heat Trap: How Climate Change Is Pushing Extreme Weather Into New Parts of the World
MIT scientists say a hidden feature of the atmosphere is allowing dangerous humid heat to build up in parts of the world that were once considered climatically mild — setting the stage for longer heat waves and more violent storms.
For decades, long spells of suffocating heat followed by explosive thunderstorms were largely confined to the tropics. But that pattern is now spreading into the planet’s midlatitudes, and researchers at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology believe they know why.
In a new study published in Science Advances, MIT scientists have identified atmospheric inversions — layers of warm air sitting over cooler air near the ground — as a critical factor controlling how hot, humid, and storm-prone a region can become. Their findings suggest that parts of the United States and East Asia could face unfamiliar and dangerous combinations of oppressive heat and extreme rainfall as the climate continues to warm.
Inversions are already notorious for trapping air pollution close to the ground. The MIT team now shows they also act like thermal lids, allowing heat and moisture to accumulate near the surface for days at a time. The longer an inversion persists, the more unbearable the humid heat becomes. And when that lid finally breaks, the stored energy can be released violently, fuelling intense thunderstorms and heavy downpours.
“Our analysis shows that the eastern and midwestern regions of U.S. and the eastern Asian regions may be new hotspots for humid heat in the future climate,” said Funing Li, a postdoctoral researcher in MIT’s Department of Earth, Atmospheric and Planetary Sciences, in a media statement.
The mechanism is especially important in midlatitude regions, where inversions are common. In the US, areas east of the Rocky Mountains frequently experience warm air aloft flowing over cooler surface air — a configuration that can linger and intensify under climate change.
“As the climate warms, theoretically the atmosphere will be able to hold more moisture,” said Talia Tamarin-Brodsky, an assistant professor at MIT and co-author of the study, in a media statement. “Which is why new regions in the midlatitudes could experience moist heat waves that will cause stress that they weren’t used to before.”
Why heat doesn’t always break
Under normal conditions, rising surface temperatures trigger convection: warm air rises, cool air sinks, clouds form, and storms develop that can eventually cool things down. But the researchers approached the problem differently, asking what actually limits how much heat and moisture can build up before convection begins.
By analysing the total energy of air near the surface — combining both dry heat and moisture — they found that inversions dramatically raise that limit. When warm air caps cooler air below, surface air must accumulate far more energy before it can rise through the barrier. The stronger and more stable the inversion, the more extreme the heat and humidity must become.
“This increasing inversion has two effects: more severe humid heat waves, and less frequent but more extreme convective storms,” Tamarin-Brodsky said.
A Midwest warning sign
Inversions can form overnight, when the ground cools rapidly, or when cool marine air slides under warmer air inland. But in the central United States, geography plays a key role.
“The Great Plains and the Midwest have had many inversions historically due to the Rocky Mountains,” Li said in a media statement. “The mountains act as an efficient elevated heat source, and westerly winds carry this relatively warm air downstream into the central and midwestern U.S., where it can help create a persistent temperature inversion that caps colder air near the surface.”
As global warming strengthens and stabilises these atmospheric layers, the researchers warn that regions like the Midwest may be pushed toward climate extremes once associated with far warmer parts of the world.
“In a future climate for the Midwest, they may experience both more severe thunderstorms and more extreme humid heat waves,” Tamarin-Brodsky said in a media statement. “Our theory gives an understanding of the limit for humid heat and severe convection for these communities that will be future heat wave and thunderstorm hotspots.”
The study offers climate scientists a new way to assess regional risk — and a stark reminder that climate change is not just intensifying known hazards, but exporting them to places unprepared for their consequences.
Climate
Climate Extremes in 2025 Exposed Inequality and the Limits of Adaptation, Scientists Warn
2025 Wasn’t Just Hot — It Pushed the World to the Edge of Climate Survival
Extreme weather events intensified across the globe in 2025, disproportionately impacting vulnerable communities and pushing many regions close to the limits of adaptation, according to the latest annual report by World Weather Attribution (WWA). Despite the absence of a strong El Niño, global temperatures remained exceptionally high, making 2025 one of the hottest years on record and underscoring the growing influence of human-induced climate change.
The report, Unequal Evidence and Impacts, Limits to Adaptation: Extreme Weather in 2025, analysed 22 major extreme weather events in depth, selected from 157 climate disasters that met humanitarian impact thresholds worldwide. Floods and heatwaves were the most frequent, with 49 events each, followed by storms (38), wildfires (11), droughts (7) and cold spells (3).
Although 2025 occurred under weak La Niña conditions—typically associated with cooler global temperatures—the three-year global temperature average crossed the 1.5°C warming threshold for the first time. Scientists attribute this persistent heat to rising greenhouse gas emissions, which continue to override natural climate variability.
“Each year, the risks of climate change become less hypothetical and more brutal reality,” said Friederike Otto, Professor of Climate Science at Imperial College London and co-founder of World Weather Attribution, in a statement. “Our report shows that despite efforts to cut carbon emissions, they have fallen short in preventing global temperature rise and the worst impacts. Decision-makers must face the reality that their continued reliance on fossil fuels is costing lives, billions in economic losses, and causing irreversible damage to communities worldwide”
Heatwaves: the deadliest disaster of 2025
Heatwaves emerged as the deadliest extreme weather event of the year. In Europe alone, an estimated 24,400 people died during a single summer heatwave between June and August, across 854 cities representing nearly 30% of the continent’s population.
In South Sudan, human-induced climate change made a February heatwave 4°C hotter than it would have been in a pre-industrial climate, turning what was once a rare event into one expected every two years. Schools were closed nationwide after dozens of children collapsed from heat exhaustion, highlighting how extreme heat disrupts education and deepens gender and social inequalities.
Floods, storms and data gaps in the Global South
Floods were the most frequently triggered hazard studied by WWA in 2025, with devastating impacts reported in Pakistan, Sri Lanka, Indonesia, Botswana and the Mississippi River Basin. However, nearly one-quarter of attribution studies remained inconclusive, largely due to poor weather data and limitations in climate models, particularly in the Global South.
This uneven scientific evidence mirrors broader climate injustice. Many regions experiencing the most severe impacts lack dense weather station networks, making it difficult to quantify the role of climate change precisely—even when human suffering is evident.
Wildfires and storms pushed adaptation limits
The report also documented record-breaking wildfires, including the most economically destructive fires in modern US history in Los Angeles, which caused an estimated $30 billion in insured losses and were linked to around 400 deaths. Climate change increased the likelihood of extreme fire weather by 35%, driven by hotter, drier, and windier conditions.
Tropical cyclones further illustrated the limits of adaptation. Hurricane Melissa, which struck the Caribbean, produced rainfall intensities at least 9% higher due to climate change. While early warnings and evacuations in Jamaica and Cuba saved lives, the storm still caused widespread damage, demonstrating that preparedness alone cannot fully offset intensifying extremes
A new era of dangerous extremes
“2025 showed us that we are now in a persistent new era of dangerous, extreme weather,” said Theodore Keeping, researcher at Imperial College London, in a statement. “The evidence of the severe, real impacts of climate change are more clear than ever, and it is essential that action is taken to stop fossil fuel emissions, and to help the world’s most vulnerable prepare for the devastating impacts of increasingly extreme weather.”
Echoing this concern, Sjoukje Philip, researcher at the Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute (KNMI), noted in a statement that natural climate variability alone cannot explain the year’s extreme heat. “The continuous rise in greenhouse gas emissions has pushed our climate into a new, more extreme state, where even small increases in global temperatures now trigger disproportionately severe impacts”
Emissions cuts are non-negotiable
While the report emphasises the importance of adaptation—such as early warning systems, urban planning, and ecosystem restoration—it concludes that rapid and deep reductions in fossil fuel emissions remain essential to avoid the worst climate impacts.
As the WWA scientists warn, without decisive global action, extreme weather events like those seen in 2025 will no longer be exceptions, but the defining feature of a warming world.
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