Society
The Dragon and the Elephant Dance for a Cleaner World
New reports from the IEA and Ember show that China and India are leading a global turning point — where renewables now outpace fossil fuels.
In late September, EdPublica reported an inspirational story from Perinjanam, a quiet coastal village in the South Indian state Kerala, where rooftops gleam with solar panels and homes have turned into micro power plants. It was a story of how ordinary citizens, through community effort and government support, took part in a just energy transition.
That local story, seemingly small, was in fact a mirror of a far bigger movement unfolding worldwide. Now, two major global reports–one from the International Energy Agency (IEA) and another from the independent think tank Ember–confirm that the world is entering a decisive new phase in its energy transformation. Together, their findings show that 2025 is shaping up to be the turning point year: the moment when renewables not only surpassed coal but began meeting all new global electricity demand. The year will likely be remembered as the moment when the global energy transition stopped being a promise and became a measurable reality — led by the two Asian giants, China and India.
The Global Picture: IEA’s Big Forecast
‘The IEA’s Renewables 2025’ report, released on October 7, paints an extraordinary picture of growth and possibility. Despite global headwinds — including high interest rates, supply chain bottlenecks, and policy shifts — renewable energy capacity is projected to more than double by 2030, adding 4,600 gigawatts (GW) of new renewable power.
To grasp that number: it’s equivalent to building the entire current electricity generation capacity of China, the European Union, and Japan combined.
At the centre of this boom is solar photovoltaic (PV) technology, which will account for around 80% of the total growth. The IEA calls solar “the backbone of the energy transition,” driven by falling costs, faster permitting processes, and widespread adoption across emerging economies. Wind, hydropower, bioenergy, and geothermal follow closely behind, expanding capacity even as global systems adapt to higher shares of variable power.
“The growth in global renewable capacity in the coming years will be dominated by solar PV – but with wind, hydropower, bioenergy and geothermal all contributing, too,” said Fatih Birol, Executive Director of the IEA. “As renewables’ role in electricity systems rises in many countries, policymakers need to play close attention to supply chain security and grid integration challenges.”
The IEA forecasts particularly rapid progress in emerging markets. India is set to become the second-largest renewables growth market in the world, after China, reaching its ambitious 2030 targets comfortably. The report highlights new policy instruments — such as auction programs and rooftop solar incentives — that are spurring confidence across Asia, the Middle East, and Africa.
In India, the expansion of corporate power purchase agreements, utility contracts, and merchant renewable plants is also driving a quiet revolution, accounting for nearly 30% of global renewable capacity expansion to 2030.
At the same time, challenges remain. The IEA points to a worrying concentration of solar PV manufacturing in China, where over 90% of supply chain capacity for key components like polysilicon and rare earth materials is expected to remain by 2030.
Grid integration is another bottleneck. As solar and wind grow, many countries are already facing curtailments — when renewable power cannot be fed into the grid due to overload or mismatch in demand. The IEA stresses the need for urgent investment in transmission infrastructure, storage technologies, and flexible generation to prevent this momentum from being wasted.
Evidence on the Ground
If the IEA’s report is a map of where we’re going, Ember’s Mid-Year Global Electricity Review 2025 shows where we are right now — and the signs are unmistakable.
Ember’s data, covering the first half of 2025, reveals that solar and wind met all of the world’s rising electricity demand — and even caused a slight decline in fossil fuel generation. It’s a first in recorded history.
“We are seeing the first signs of a crucial turning point,” said Małgorzata Wiatros-Motyka, Senior Electricity Analyst at Ember. “Solar and wind are now growing fast enough to meet the world’s growing appetite for electricity. This marks the beginning of a shift where clean power is keeping pace with demand growth.”
Global electricity demand rose by 2.6% in early 2025, adding about 369 terawatt-hours (TWh) compared with the same period last year. Solar alone met 83% of that rise, thanks to record generation growth of 306 TWh, a year-on-year increase of 31%. Wind contributed another 97 TWh, leading to a net decline in both coal and gas generation.
Coal generation fell 0.6% (-31 TWh) and gas 0.2% (-6 TWh), marking a combined fossil decline of 0.3% (-27 TWh). As a result, global power sector emissions fell by 0.2%, even as demand continued to grow.
Most significantly, for the first time ever, renewables generated more power than coal. Renewables supplied 5,072 TWh, overtaking coal’s 4,896 TWh — a symbolic but historic milestone.
“Solar and wind are no longer marginal technologies — they are driving the global power system forward,” said Sonia Dunlop, CEO of the Global Solar Council. “The fact that renewables have overtaken coal for the first time marks a historic shift.”
China and India Lead the Way
The two reports together highlight that the epicenter of the clean energy shift is now in Asia.
According to Ember, China’s fossil generation fell by 2% (-58.7 TWh) in the first half of 2025, as clean power growth outpaced rising electricity demand. Solar generation jumped 43% (+168 TWh), and wind grew 16% (+79 TWh), together helping cut the country’s power sector emissions by 1.7% (-47 MtCO₂).
Meanwhile, India’s fossil fuel decline was even steeper in relative terms. Solar and wind generation grew at record pace — solar by 25% (+17 TWh) and wind by 29% (+11 TWh) — while electricity demand rose only 1.3%, far slower than in 2024. The result: coal use dropped 3.1% (-22 TWh) and gas by 34% (-7 TWh), leading to an estimated 3.6% fall in power sector emissions.
For both countries, these numbers align closely with the IEA’s projections. Together, China and India are now the primary engines of renewable capacity growth, demonstrating how large emerging economies can pivot toward clean energy while maintaining development momentum.
Setbacks Elsewhere
Yet progress is uneven. In the United States and European Union, fossil generation actually rose in early 2025.
In the U.S., a 3.6% rise in demand outpaced clean power additions, leading to a 17% increase in coal generation (+51 TWh), though gas use fell slightly. The EU also saw higher gas and coal use due to weaker wind and hydro output.
The IEA attributes part of this slowdown to policy uncertainty, especially in the U.S., where an early phase-out of federal tax incentives has reduced renewable growth expectations by almost 50% compared to last year’s forecast. Europe’s problem is different — a mature but strained grid facing seasonal fluctuations and low wind output.

These regional discrepancies underscore the IEA’s core message: achieving a clean power future isn’t just about building more solar farms, but about building smarter systems — integrated, flexible, and resilient.
Beyond Power
Both reports agree that while renewables are transforming electricity, their impact on transport and heating remains limited.
In transport, the IEA projects renewables’ share to rise modestly from 4% today to 6% in 2030, mostly through electric vehicles and biofuels. In heating, renewables are set to grow from 14% to 18% of global energy use over the same period.
These slower-moving sectors will define the next frontier of decarbonization — one where electrification, hydrogen, and new thermal storage technologies must play a greater role.
The Big Picture
Put together, the IEA’s forecasts and Ember’s real-world data signal that the clean energy transition has passed the point of no return.
Solar and wind are no longer simply catching up — they are now shaping global power dynamics. Their continued expansion is not only meeting new demand but beginning to displace fossil fuels outright.
“As costs of technologies continue to fall, now is the perfect moment to embrace the economic, social and health benefits that come with increased solar, wind and batteries,” said Ember’s Wiatros-Motyka.
Yet both agencies caution: to sustain this momentum, governments must expand grid capacity, diversify supply chains, and improve energy storage systems. Without these, the 2025 breakthrough could become a bottleneck.

A Symbol and a Signal
In a way, the world in 2025 looks a lot like Perinjanam did a few years ago — a place where optimism met obstacles, but the light won. What was once a village-scale transition is now a planetary transformation, proving that even small local models can foreshadow global change.
From Kerala’s rooftops to China’s vast solar parks, from India’s wind corridors to Africa’s mini-grids, the direction is unmistakable: the sun and wind are powering the next phase of human progress.
If 2024 was the year of warnings, 2025 is the year of evidence. The global energy system is finally tilting toward sustainability — not someday, but today.
Sustainable Energy
India’s EV Investment Story: Rs 2.23 Lakh Crore Deployed, But 82% of Capital Needs Still Unmet
India’s charger-to-EV ratio continues to lag far behind global benchmarks—a structural weakness that could slow consumer adoption.
India’s electric mobility transition has entered a decisive yet challenging phase. A new analysis from the Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis (IEEFA) reveals a complex narrative: while the country’s EV sector has attracted an impressive Rs 2.23 lakh crore in investments between 2020 and 2025, this represents just 18% of what India must mobilise by 2030 to meet its ambitious clean transport goals.
Unfolding against the backdrop of India’s expanding climate commitments and rising consumer interest in EVs, the report offers a data-rich look into where capital is flowing, where it is missing, and what structural challenges remain hidden beneath headline growth.
A Five-Year Surge in Capital—But Not Enough
Between 2020 and 2025, the EV ecosystem—spanning manufacturing facilities, public subsidies, and charging networks—absorbed Rs 2,23,119 crore in funding. This includes:
- Manufacturing investments supported primarily through internal accruals
- Government subsidies, especially through FAME (Faster Adoption and Manufacturing of Hybrid and Electric Vehicles)
- Charging infrastructure, which remains under-capitalised
Despite this influx, India’s 2030 targets—30% of private cars, 70% of commercial vehicles, 40% of buses, and 80% of two- and three-wheelers going electric—require a total of Rs12.5 lakh crore in investments. That leaves Rs 10.26 lakh crore still unmet.
“While Rs 2.23 lakh crore is a significant capital mobilisation in just five years, it represents only about 18% of the Rs12,50,000 crore required by 2030,” says co-author Subham Shrivastava. “Mobilising the remaining INR10,26,881 crore (USD117.82 billion) by 2030 will require systemic financing reforms.”
The Anatomy of EV Capital
A closer look at the numbers reveals how India’s EV push has been financed so far.
Internal reserves dominate
Manufacturers contributed the bulk of realised investment through their own internal accruals—Rs1,59,701 crore. Debt followed at Rs36,738 crore, while equity accounted for Rs 6,455 crore. But these aggregates obscure important differences across vehicle types.
The three-wheeler segment, driven by a fragmented OEM landscape and low capital-intensity operations, leaned heavily on internal funding and limited debt. Meanwhile, two- and four-wheeler categories showed more diverse capital structures due to the presence of established players and higher investment requirements.
“From 2020–2025, electric three-wheelers attracted the largest share (~78%) of investments among vehicle segments, due to the segment’s maturity and commercial-scale operations alongside its fragmented OEM base,” explains co-author Saurabh Trivedi. “However, recent investment announcements in 2024 and 2025 reveal a pivot towards electric four-wheelers, driven by rising demand for electric cars.”
Charging Infrastructure: A Massive Funding Gap
Perhaps the most critical bottleneck in India’s EV story is the underdeveloped charging ecosystem.
From 2020 to 2025, investments in public charging constituted just 9.6% of the ₹20,600 crore estimated need for 2030. While the country expanded its public chargers from 5,151 to 39,485 over five years, utilisation rates remain low and profitability uncertain.
“Investment in EV charging faces challenges due to limited investor interest, as public EV charging remains an unproven business model, with many charging stations reporting low utilisation rates and high initial costs,” notes co-author Charith Konda.
India’s charger-to-EV ratio continues to lag far behind global benchmarks—a structural weakness that could slow consumer adoption.
The Silent Brake on India’s EV Growth
Beyond infrastructure, the economics of financing EVs present another hurdle.
Commercial EV borrowers currently face interest rates of 15–33%, levels that wipe out the total cost-of-ownership advantage EVs typically offer.
“The binding constraint is not a lack of capital in the system—it is how EV risk is priced,” Shrivastava says. “When lenders remain uncertain about battery performance, residual values, and cash-flow stability, that uncertainty gets reflected in higher interest rates.”
High financing costs disincentivise fleet operators and businesses from transitioning to EVs. As a result, manufacturing capacity cannot scale at the pace needed, creating a demand-supply mismatch.
A New Model for Mobilising Capital
To unlock the remaining ₹10.3 lakh crore needed over the next five years, IEEFA proposes a shift away from subsidy-led growth toward structural risk-sharing.
The solution: a coordinated integrated EV financing platform that consolidates:
- Partial credit guarantees
- Residual value protection for batteries
- Battery-as-a-service (BaaS) arrangements
- Co-lending structures
This platform would be anchored by development finance institutions with relevant expertise—SIDBI for MSMEs and small commercial fleets, and IIFCL for large commercial deployments.
“Manufacturers need predictable demand signals to scale capacity, but demand depends heavily on affordable credit,” Trivedi adds. “An integrated platform that shares risks appropriately across lenders, OEMs, and public institutions can reduce financing costs and unlock commercial-scale deployment.”
The idea is that as EV adoption grows and asset performance data becomes more robust, lenders will recalibrate risk premiums downward. Over time, underwriting practices could standardise, securitisation markets may emerge, and capital could recycle more efficiently.
A Self-Reinforcing Investment Loop
The report outlines a possible virtuous cycle:
- Lower financing costs stimulate EV adoption
- Higher sales volumes create better performance data
- Improved visibility reduces risk perception
- Lower risk draws in more capital
- Manufacturers scale up, benefiting from economies of scale
- Reduced costs further accelerate adoption
This dynamic, according to IEEFA, is essential for unlocking a mature and self-sustaining EV ecosystem.
A Race Between Ambition and Capital
India’s electric transport ambitions are clear and achievable—but only if the investment framework evolves as rapidly as consumer interest and technological capability.
The core message from the data is unmistakable: India is moving in the right direction, but far too slowly. Recognising this, the authors warn that the next five years will determine the trajectory of India’s EV revolution. The country must transition from policy-driven electrification to a financially self-sustaining ecosystem capable of attracting large volumes of private capital at scale.
The question is no longer about policy commitment but about the cost, structure, and flow of capital in an evolving, high-potential sector.
Climate
More Shade for the Rich: Study Exposes Global Urban Heat Inequality
New MIT research shows how wealthier neighbourhoods enjoy more tree shade, exposing global heat inequality and offering solutions for fairer urban cooling.
As extreme heat becomes a growing global concern, one of the most effective cooling tools remains remarkably simple: trees. Research has long shown that greater tree coverage in cities helps reduce surface temperatures, improve public health outcomes, and make walking more comfortable in high heat.
Yet a new international study led by researchers at MIT reveals that access to this natural relief is far from equal. Tree cover — and the shade it provides — varies drastically within cities, closely tracking neighborhood wealth.
“Shade is the easiest way to counter warm weather,” said Fabio Duarte, an MIT urban studies scholar and co-author of the study, in a media statement. “Strictly by looking at which areas are shaded, we can tell where rich people and poor people live.”
The research team analyzed sidewalk shade in nine cities across four continents: Amsterdam, Barcelona, Belem, Boston, Hong Kong, Milan, Rio de Janeiro, Stockholm, and Sydney. Despite major differences in climate, wealth, and urban form, every city showed the same trend: affluent areas consistently enjoy more tree-shaded sidewalks.
Duarte noted that this imbalance was striking even in cities globally recognized for greenery. “When we compare the most well-shaded city in our study, Stockholm, with the worst-shaded, Belem in northern Brazil, we still see marked inequality,” he said in a media statement. “Even though the most-shaded parts of Belem are less shaded than the least-shaded parts of Stockholm, shade inequality in Stockholm is greater. Rich people in Stockholm have much better shade provision as pedestrians than we see in poor areas of Stockholm.”
The findings were published in the journal Nature Communications, in a paper titled Global patterns of pedestrian shade inequality. The research team includes scholars from Hong Kong Polytechnic University, the Amsterdam Institute for Advanced Metropolitan Solutions, and members of the MIT Senseable City Lab.
A Global Look at Uneven Shade
To quantify shade, the team used satellite imagery and detailed urban economic data to measure sidewalk coverage on both the summer solstice and the hottest day each year from 1991 to 2020. They assigned each neighbourhood a score between 0 and 1, with higher numbers indicating better shade.
Cities differed sharply in total tree cover — for instance, Stockholm’s neighbourhoods often score above 0.6, while large portions of Rio de Janeiro fall below 0.1. But the inequality within each city was consistent: the wealthiest neighbourhoods always had the greatest shade.
Even in cities known for strong environmental planning, disparities remained. “In rich cities like Amsterdam, even though it’s relatively well-shaded, the disparity is still very high,” said Lukas Beuster, a study co-author. “For us the most surprising point was not that in poor cities and more unequal societies the disparity would be notable — that was expected. What was unexpected was how the disparity still happens and is sometimes more pronounced in rich countries.”
Not all trends were uniform. Some cities, such as Barcelona and Milan, featured lower-income neighborhoods with strong shade coverage. Still, across the global sample, economic status remained a powerful indicator of access to cool, walkable streets.
Why Shade Matters — and What Cities Can Do
Sidewalks became the focal point of the study because they are crucial public spaces used daily by commuters, especially those without access to air conditioning or private vehicles. As cities worldwide face rising temperatures, researchers argue that shade must be treated as essential infrastructure.
“When it comes to those who are not protected by air conditioning, they are also using the city, walking, taking buses, and anybody who takes a bus is walking or biking to or from bus stops,” Duarte explained in a communication from MIT. “They are using sidewalks as the main infrastructure.”
Given the scale of disparity, the researchers suggest one clear strategy: target tree planting along public transit routes, where pedestrian activity is highest and where lower-income residents are most likely to walk.
“In each city, from Sydney to Rio to Amsterdam, there are people who, regardless of the weather, need to walk,” Duarte said . “Therefore, link a tree-planting scheme to a public transportation network. … If you follow transit, you will have the right shading.”
Beuster added that cities should think of urban trees as functional assets, not just aesthetic ones, emphasizing their central role in cooling and public health.
Duarte further stressed the importance of prioritizing shade where people actually move through the city. “It’s not just about planting trees,” he said in a media statement. “It’s about providing shade by planting trees. If you remove a tree that’s providing shade in a pedestrian area and you plant two other trees in a park, you are still removing part of the public function of the tree.”
“With increasing temperatures, providing shade is an essential public amenity,” he added in a media statement. “Along with providing transportation, I think providing shade in pedestrian spaces should almost be a public right.”
Climate
IEA Ministerial 2026: Global Energy Leaders Expand Ties, Push Critical Minerals Security
At the IEA Ministerial Meeting in Paris, 54 countries backed expanded membership talks with Brazil, India, Colombia and Viet Nam, while strengthening cooperation on critical minerals and clean energy security.
Global energy leaders convened in Paris this week for the International Energy Agency’s Ministerial Meeting, underscoring the agency’s expanding role in shaping international cooperation at a time of rising demand, geopolitical tensions, and accelerating energy transitions.
The two-day gathering drew senior government representatives from a record 54 countries, around 40 of them at ministerial level. Executives from 55 companies — representing a combined market capitalisation of $14 trillion — joined leaders of intergovernmental organisations in what became the largest Ministerial Meeting in the agency’s history.
At the heart of the discussions was a clear message: energy security, affordability and sustainability can no longer be pursued in isolation. They require deeper multilateral coordination, stronger data systems, and expanded institutional alliances.
Expanding the IEA Family
Member governments unanimously agreed to move forward on strengthening institutional ties with Brazil, Colombia, India and Viet Nam. In a major step, Colombia was invited to become the IEA’s 33rd Member. Brazil was invited to begin the process toward full membership following a request from its government. Ministers also welcomed recent progress in discussions with India regarding its request for full membership. Viet Nam joined as the newest Association country in the IEA Family.
The expansion significantly alters the geometry of global energy governance. With these additions, the IEA Family’s share of global energy consumption now exceeds 80%, up from less than 40% a decade ago — reflecting a profound shift in the agency’s global reach.
“This Ministerial Meeting, our largest ever, affirmed the immense value of the IEA at a moment when global energy demand is rising and the challenges facing the energy system are intensifying. In this context, our wide range of objective data and analysis is more important than ever,” said IEA Executive Director Fatih Birol.
“In a strong step forward for global energy governance, key countries such as Brazil, Colombia, India and Viet Nam are strengthening their ties with the IEA. This puts the IEA Family’s share of global energy use at more than 80%, up from less than 40% ten years ago. With major energy issues high on the international agenda, we stand ready to support governments with the insights they need to plan for the future, helping leaders deliver on their goals of ensuring greater energy security, affordability and sustainability.”
Deputy Prime Minister Sophie Hermans of the Netherlands, who chaired the Ministerial, framed the discussions in terms of resilience amid uncertainty.
“These two days in Paris have reaffirmed how essential energy is to our daily lives – it is the invisible driving force behind everything we do. Under the umbrella of knowledge of the International Energy Agency, we have once again seen that international cooperation is key,” she said. “Our priority is clear: secure, affordable and sustainable energy – and resilient systems that can endure in an uncertain world.”
In a video address opening the meeting, French President Emmanuel Macron emphasised the IEA’s analytical leadership. “Through its in-depth analyses, and the technical expertise of its team, the IEA, under the leadership of its Executive Director Fatih Birol, plays an essential role. It enlightens us to help us guarantee our energy security and steer the energy transition.”
Beyond institutional expansion, the Ministerial marked a strong endorsement of deeper cooperation on critical minerals — increasingly viewed as the backbone of clean energy technologies.
In a special declaration, Ministers backed expanding collaboration under the IEA Critical Minerals Security Programme to address mounting risks to global supply chains. They called for strengthened data tools, collaborative exercises and clearer guidance on measures such as stockpiling, aimed at diversifying supply chains and building resilience against supply shocks.
Clean Cooking and Energy Access
Member countries also approved the integration of the Clean Cooking Alliance into the IEA, positioning the agency as the principal multilateral forum for advancing clean cooking solutions. The move seeks to accelerate access for the more than two billion people worldwide who still lack clean cooking technologies.
The integration comes ahead of the IEA’s second Summit on Clean Cooking in Africa, scheduled for July 2026 in Nairobi, where governments and industry leaders are expected to review progress since the inaugural 2024 summit and outline new financing and policy pathways.
Energy Security in the Age of Electricity
Two high-level dialogues during the Ministerial focused on safeguarding energy security in what officials termed the “Age of Electricity,” and on supporting Ukraine’s energy system amid ongoing disruptions. Ukrainian First Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of Energy Denys Shmyhal participated in discussions on rebuilding and securing Ukraine’s energy infrastructure.
As energy demand continues to climb and transition pathways grow more complex, the IEA’s expanding membership and programme scope suggest that multilateral coordination — once largely confined to oil security — is now being repositioned as the backbone of a rapidly electrifying and mineral-intensive global energy system.
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