Pacific island nations are seeking to put their climate concerns at the centre of global negotiations as ministers, climate negotiators and senior officials gather in Fiji for preparatory talks ahead of the COP31 climate summit.

The Pre-COP meeting, scheduled in Nadi from October 5 to 8, is intended to build momentum for the United Nations climate conference in Antalya, Türkiye, in November. COP31 will be held from November 9 to 20.

For Pacific countries, however, the meeting is more than a diplomatic step towards the main summit. It is an opportunity to press the world’s major economies on issues that directly affect the region, particularly the 1.5°C warming limit, climate finance and the growing impact of climate change on oceans and coastal communities.

Fiji has outlined four priorities for the Pre-COP discussions: keeping the 1.5°C target within reach, improving access to climate finance, placing oceans more prominently in climate negotiations and strengthening Pacific leadership.

The 1.5°C target is particularly important for small island nations facing rising seas, coastal erosion, extreme weather and growing pressure on communities and infrastructure.

Fiji’s climate officials have said the country wants to maintain the role of climate science in international decision-making and “hold the line” on 1.5°C. The country is also calling for climate finance to reach vulnerable communities more quickly, arguing that lengthy funding procedures can leave communities waiting for resources while climate risks continue to increase.

Access to finance is expected to be one of the key issues carried from the Pacific discussions into COP31. Pacific governments are seeking greater support for adaptation and resilience, including through a proposed Pacific Resilience Facility that would finance climate projects across the region.

The region is also seeking to bring oceans more firmly into the climate agenda. For Pacific island states, climate change is closely connected to the health of marine ecosystems, coastal communities, fisheries and food security.

The preparatory talks will therefore bring together two aspects of the climate debate: the global effort to limit further warming and the immediate need to protect communities already experiencing its effects.

The setting is significant. Leaders and delegates will also spend time in Tuvalu, a low-lying Pacific island nation particularly exposed to sea-level rise. The programme includes visits to adaptation projects, including reclaimed land and solar installations, allowing visiting leaders to see some of the measures being used by island states to respond to climate risks.

But the meeting comes with a diplomatic challenge. Reuters reported that relatively few leaders from outside the Pacific have confirmed their participation. Leaders from Antigua and Barbuda, Cabo Verde, Thailand, the Maldives and Timor-Leste are among those confirmed, while around 30 representatives of countries and institutions are expected at the leaders’ segment.

A placard displaying ‘Save the Earth’.Representational image.Image Credit:Pexels

The limited participation has drawn criticism from some Pacific officials, who argue that the region’s climate concerns deserve greater international attention. At the same time, the meeting is expected to bring thousands of delegates to Fiji, giving Pacific governments a platform to shape discussions before the main negotiations in Türkiye.

For the Pacific, the focus in Nadi will therefore be on translating regional concerns into negotiating priorities for COP31 — from keeping the 1.5°C goal central to improving access to climate finance and strengthening attention to oceans and adaptation.

The outcome of the Fiji discussions will feed into negotiations at COP31, where governments will have to work through the wider questions of climate ambition, finance and implementation.

For island nations on the frontline of climate change, the immediate priority is to ensure that their experience and demands are reflected proportionately in those negotiations.

Europe’s crops are reaching maturity earlier as extreme heat accelerates plant development. But the 2026 harvest shows why an earlier harvest should not be mistaken for a bigger one: heat can shorten the grain-filling period, reduce yields and leave crops with fewer and smaller grains.

A wheat field turning golden weeks earlier than it once did might appear to signal a productive growing season. But across Europe, the earlier agricultural calendar is increasingly coming with a less reassuring reality.

Winter wheat in some European Union regions is now reaching maturity up to 20 days earlier than in 2000, according to European Commission data reported by Reuters. Maize and rapeseed are also developing and reaching harvest stages earlier as rising temperatures accelerate the accumulation of heat needed for crops to progress through their life cycles.

But an earlier maturity date is not the same thing as a higher yield.

In fact, Europe’s 2026 growing season demonstrates the opposite can happen.

The European Commission’s Joint Research Centre (JRC) said in September that prolonged heat accelerated crop development and ageing, causing plants to move more quickly through critical stages including flowering and grain filling. At the same time, rainfall deficits depleted soil moisture. The combination left crops with less time and fewer resources to form well-developed grains, tubers and cobs. In the worst-affected areas, maize reached maturity as much as three weeks earlier than usual.

For wheat, one of the most important stages after flowering is grain filling. This is when the developing grain accumulates the carbohydrates and other resources that determine its eventual size and weight. If high temperatures accelerate the plant’s development, the time available for grain filling can be reduced.

The JRC’s July assessment explicitly found that repeated heatwaves had shortened the grain-filling phase of winter crops and brought harvests forward. Its winter-crop yield forecasts were consequently revised down by 1–4%, leaving the overall cereal outlook about 1% below the five-year average.

The September assessment showed how much more severe the situation became for crops whose critical development occurred during the summer.

EU forecasts put soybean yields 15% below the 2021–25 average, fresh maize 14% below, sugar beet 11% below, grain maize 8% below and potatoes 7% below. The JRC also warned that production losses could exceed yield losses because some severely damaged fields were no longer economically viable to harvest.

The 2026 grain forecast tells the same story

An analysis by the Energy and Climate Intelligence Unit (ECIU), based on COCERAL’s crop forecasts, provides another measure of the damage.

COCERAL’s September forecast put combined EU-27 and UK grain production at 278.9 million tonnes, down from 295.5 million tonnes in its June forecast. The 16.7-million-tonne downgrade between June and September came after an earlier nine-million-tonne reduction between the June and July forecasts.

The ECIU analysis estimates that the September forecast was 9.3% below 2025 levels, making it the smallest grain harvest in at least a decade. It estimates the current value of the lost production at about €3.2 billion.

Of the 16.7 million tonnes lost between the June and September forecasts, 11.1 million tonnes resulted from lower yield forecasts, while 5.6 million tonnes came from changes in crop-area estimates.

That makes yield the central part of the story.

Heat did not simply make European crops mature earlier. It reduced how much harvest many plants could produce before they reached maturity.

Wheat was hit during grain filling

The ECIU analysis, drawing on COCERAL’s assessment, identifies different vulnerable stages for different crops.

Wheat was hit during grain filling, when moisture is particularly important for grains to develop properly. Maize, meanwhile, was particularly vulnerable during pollination.

This helps explain why simply measuring the date of maturity can be misleading.

A plant may reach physiological maturity sooner because accumulated heat has pushed it through its developmental stages. But if extreme heat and water stress occurred during grain filling, the plant may reach that endpoint with less grain mass than it would have produced under more moderate conditions.

The JRC observed the same mechanism across crops in 2026: accelerated development combined with limited water meant less time and fewer resources for crops to form well-developed grains, tubers and cobs.

Wheat field.Image credit:Pexels

The losses were uneven across Europe

The ECIU analysis shows just how differently countries were affected.

France recorded the largest downward revision, with grain production cut by 5.8 million tonnes, representing an estimated €1.47 billion in lost production value. Hungary’s forecast fell by 3.2 million tonnes, the UK’s by 3 million tonnes and Germany’s by 2.5 million tonnes.

France’s maize crop was particularly affected. COCERAL’s September estimate put production at 7.6 million tonnes, 45% below 2025.

In the UK, the wheat yield forecast was cut from 7.95 tonnes per hectare to 6.82 tonnes per hectare. Austria’s maize yield fell from 11.4 tonnes per hectare in 2025 to 7.2 tonnes per hectare.

The contrast is therefore stark: some crops were ready for harvest earlier, but the amount harvested per hectare was falling.

Why 2026 became so damaging

The JRC says the summer began from relatively favourable conditions before a combination of exceptional heat and rainfall deficits changed the outlook rapidly.

Large areas of Spain, France and Italy experienced more than 15 additional days above 35°C compared with a typical summer, with elevated heat exposure also affecting Greece and Croatia.

Earlier in the summer, the JRC’s drought monitoring showed that 50% of EU and UK territory was under some level of drought condition by late July, with 9% at alert level. The drought combined low rainfall, depleted soil moisture and vegetation stress.

Winter crops had largely completed their development before the most severe summer heat arrived, which helped keep their yields closer to the recent average. Summer crops were still developing when the heat and drought intensified and were consequently more exposed.

A changing agricultural calendar

The shift towards earlier maturity is therefore not meaningless. It is an important indicator of how warming temperatures are changing Europe’s agricultural calendar.

Earlier maturity may sometimes allow a crop to escape a later heatwave or drought. The problem arises when accelerated development happens because of intense heat during a period when the plant still needs time, water and moderate temperatures to build yield.

The 2026 data show this distinction clearly.

The European Commission’s July assessment already reported that heatwaves had shortened the grain-filling period of winter crops. By September, its models showed summer crops reaching maturity earlier while yields remained substantially below the five-year average.

The result is a paradox that will become increasingly important as temperatures rise: a crop can be harvested earlier and still produce less food.

The warning signal

The 2026 European heatwave attribution study reported that the 2026 temperatures would have been virtually impossible in the 1976 climate. The comparable daytime heat would have been around 10 times less likely in 2003, while comparable nighttime temperatures would have been more than 100 times less likely. A comparable June 2026 heatwave would also have been about 3.5°C cooler during the day in the 1976 climate.

That study should not be used to attribute the 2026 agricultural losses directly. But it provides important context for the wider trend: extreme heat is becoming a more important agricultural risk as the climate warms.

The 2026 European harvest shows what that risk can look like on the ground.

The question for agriculture is therefore no longer simply “When will the crop mature?”

It is also “How much yield can the plant build before it gets there?”

For wheat, maize and other crops, that difference could determine whether a warmer growing season produces an earlier harvest or simply an earlier end to a season that has failed to produce enough food.

Europe’s potato harvest is heading into a difficult season after extreme heat and drought cut yields across some of the continent’s biggest potato-growing regions. Germany, France, Belgium and the Netherlands could lose around 3.1 million tonnes of potatoes compared with their five-year average, according to a new analysis by the Energy and Climate Intelligence Unit (ECIU). When Great Britain is included, the estimated weather-related loss rises to more than 3.5 million tonnes.

At current prices, the lost production across the five countries could be worth between €498 million and €818 million. The impact is already visible in the potato market, where processors are paying substantially more for supplies.

Smaller Crop Before the Drought

The weather shock came after European farmers had already reduced potato planting. A glut in 2025 pushed potato prices down, prompting growers to cut the area planted in 2026. The planted area fell by 11% in Germany, 10% in France, 15% in the Netherlands and 17% in Belgium.

Had yields remained at their five-year averages, the smaller planted area alone would have resulted in an estimated 3.6 million-tonne reduction in production. The drought added another layer of losses. ECIU estimates yields are 13% below the five-year average in France, 21% lower in Belgium, 10% lower in Germany and 7% lower in the Netherlands.

For Great Britain, where the Agriculture and Horticulture Development Board stopped publishing harvest and yield estimates in 2021, the analysis uses an estimate from World Potato Markets. It puts yields around 11% below the 2021–25 average, based on conditions similar to the 2018 drought.

Tom Lancaster, land, food and farming analyst at ECIU, said the effects of the summer’s heat and drought were becoming increasingly visible in industry yield estimates. “As one of Europe’s thirstiest crops, it was inevitable that the potato harvest would be hit hard,” he said.

Heat Shrinking the Potatoes

The problem is not only the amount harvested. Heat and water shortages are also affecting potato size. Belgium, the world’s largest exporter of frozen fries, has reported particularly severe problems with Fontane, its main frying variety.

By the end of August, Fontane was yielding around 32 tonnes per hectare, 30% below the previous year. Only about half of the crop was above the 50 mm size preferred by processors. For the processing industry, that distinction matters. A potato crop can survive a dry season while still producing fewer tubers that meet the size requirements for products such as chips and frozen fries.

Recent rainfall may have improved conditions in some areas, but industry estimates suggest it came too late to reverse much of the damage.

Potato Prices are Rising

The tighter supply is showing up in processing markets. Belgian free-market potatoes have risen from zero in April to €200 or more a tonne. German processing potatoes have reached about €240 a tonne, compared with a season low of €15 in June.

In Britain, processors are paying more than £300 a tonne, up from £180 in February. These are processing-market prices rather than direct measures of what consumers will pay. But they show the pressure developing further up the supply chain as processors compete for potatoes that meet their requirements.

Farmers Caught Between Two Bad Years

For potato farmers, the weather shock has come after a difficult market year. Jean-Paul Dallene, a potato farmer in Pas-de-Calais, said he had surplus potatoes last year and was forced to sell them at a loss. This year, drought has reduced his yield by 12 tonnes per hectare. He estimates the resulting loss of income at around €4,300 per hectare, from lower yields and contract prices.

Dallene has already changed his farming practices, including adopting no-till methods to reduce the impact of water shortages. But the severity of this year’s drought and heat exceeded what he expected.

His experience highlights the economic difficulty of adapting to a more volatile climate. Farmers can change cultivation practices, but they still face weather they cannot control and markets that can swing sharply between oversupply and shortage.

Water Management Crisis

Potatoes require substantial water during tuber development. Higher temperatures can increase the crop’s water demand at the same time that drought reduces the water available.

That makes water management increasingly important. Cedric Porter, editor of World Potato Markets, said farmers would need to prepare for both extremes. “Investment in water management, whether it is conserving water when there is too much or irrigating during dry summers, will be essential to the continued success of the crop,” he said.

That means adaptation cannot depend on irrigation alone. Storing water during wetter periods, improving soil moisture retention and making more efficient use of available water could become increasingly important for potato production.

Climate Problem With Food Price Effect

The potato losses are part of a wider pattern of climate stress across Europe. World Weather Attribution found that temperatures during this summer’s European heatwave would have been virtually impossible” 50 years ago. Its assessment of the drought also found that human-caused warming had increased the likelihood and severity of the conditions.

For agriculture, the significance lies in the combination of hazards. Heat increases water demand. Drought reduces water availability. Heavy rainfall at other times can damage soils and crops or make fields difficult to work. These shifts make it harder for farmers to rely on historical growing conditions when deciding what and how much to plant.

The Biological Hangover

The immediate concern is supply. But the longer-term issue is predictability. Europe went from a potato glut and low prices in 2025 to reduced planting in 2026, followed by heat and drought that further cut yields. The result could be more than 3.5 million tonnes of weather-related production losses across five major markets.

For consumers, that pressure can eventually feed into the price of chips and other potato products. For farmers, the bigger challenge is managing a crop when both sides of the equation are becoming more uncertain: the weather that determines yields and the market that determines whether those yields are profitable.

Porter notes that Europe has experienced four droughts since 2018, alongside periods of heavy rainfall during winter and spring. The potato may be an everyday food, but its increasingly unpredictable journey from field to processor is another measure of how climate change is reshaping Europe’s food system.