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The Next Five Years Could Be Earth’s Hottest Yet, WMO Warns

A new WMO forecast warns that Earth could see new global temperature records before 2030, with Arctic warming continuing to outpace the global average.

Joe Jacob

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Global temperature record levels are likely to be challenged again before the end of this decade, according to a new World Meteorological Organization forecast. Scientists say there is a high chance that one of the next five years will become the warmest ever recorded, as rising greenhouse gas emissions and a possible El Niño event continue to push the planet toward new climate extremes.

The world is heading into another stretch of exceptional heat, with a strong chance that a new global temperature record will be set before the end of the decade.

According to a new assessment from the World Meteorological Organization (WMO), global temperatures are expected to remain at or near record levels between 2026 and 2030, extending a warming trend that has already pushed climate indicators into uncharted territory.

The report paints a picture of a planet that continues to warm despite international efforts to curb greenhouse gas emissions. While the Paris Agreement aims to limit long-term warming to 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels, scientists now estimate there is a 91% chance that at least one of the next five years will temporarily cross that threshold.

Global Temperature Record Could Be Broken Again by 2030

Even more striking, there is a 75% chance that the average temperature across the entire five-year period from 2026 to 2030 will exceed 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels.

The findings do not mean the Paris Agreement has officially failed. The agreement’s temperature targets are measured over decades rather than individual years. Still, climate scientists view the growing frequency of these temporary breaches as a sign of how rapidly the planet is approaching those long-term limits.

The report projects annual global temperatures during 2026–2030 to range between 1.3°C and 1.9°C above the 1850–1900 average. There is also an 86% chance that one of those years will surpass 2024, currently the warmest year ever recorded.

One factor behind the forecast is the likely return of El Niño conditions in the tropical Pacific Ocean.

2027 Could Become the Next Global Temperature Record Year

Dr. Leon Hermanson, lead author of the report, said: “There is an El Niño predicted for the end of 2026, which increases the chances of the following year, 2027, being the next record-breaking year.”

El Niño events typically raise global temperatures by releasing additional heat from the Pacific Ocean into the atmosphere. When combined with the long-term warming caused by greenhouse gas emissions, they can push global temperatures to new highs.

Global Temperature Record Highlights Faster Arctic Warming

While rising temperatures affect every region, the Arctic continues to stand out.

The WMO forecasts that Arctic temperatures during the next five northern hemisphere winters will average about 2.8°C above the 1991–2020 baseline. That is more than three times the projected global average anomaly over the same period.

Scientists have long observed that the Arctic is warming faster than the rest of the world, a phenomenon known as Arctic amplification. The consequences include shrinking sea ice, thawing permafrost and disruptions to weather patterns far beyond the polar region.

The report also points to continued declines in sea ice across parts of the Arctic, particularly in the Barents Sea, Bering Sea and the Sea of Okhotsk.

A Wetter North, A Drier South

The warming climate is also reshaping rainfall patterns.

According to the forecast, northern high-latitude regions are likely to experience wetter-than-average winters over the next five years. Increased rainfall is also expected across parts of the tropics.

At the same time, many subtropical regions are projected to become drier. The Amazon is among the areas where below-average rainfall is considered more likely during the coming years.

Seasonal forecasts for 2026–2030 suggest wetter conditions in the Sahel region of Africa, northern Europe, Alaska and Siberia. Such shifts are consistent with what climate scientists have long expected in a warming world, where a warmer atmosphere holds more moisture and alters long-established rainfall patterns.

Beyond Records

The report is not simply about whether another temperature record will be broken.

For governments, businesses and communities, the findings serve as a reminder that climate change is increasingly shaping everyday realities—from agriculture and water supplies to infrastructure, health and disaster preparedness.

The assessment was produced by the UK Met Office on behalf of the WMO and draws on forecasts from 13 international climate centres. Scientists say confidence in the temperature projections is high because similar forecasting systems have performed well when tested against past climate conditions.

If the projections prove accurate, the second half of this decade could become a defining period in the world’s climate story—not because warming suddenly accelerates, but because the consequences of a steadily warming planet become harder to ignore.

Climate

Western Ghats ESA: Centre Reissues Draft for 7th Time Amid Standoff

The Centre has reissued the Western Ghats ESA draft for the seventh time, with the proposed 56,825.7 sq. km area unchanged. The move highlights the long-running standoff with six States over ecological protection, development and the boundaries of the proposed ESA.

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Western Ghats landscape proposed under ESA protection
A view of the forested Western Ghats, where the Centre has proposed an Ecologically Sensitive Area (ESA). Image credit: sarangib/ Pixabay

The Centre has reissued its draft notification proposing an Ecologically Sensitive Area (ESA) across the Western Ghats for the seventh time in more than a decade, as differences with the six Western Ghats States over the boundaries of the proposed zone remain unresolved.

The Union Environment Ministry issued the fresh draft on July 27, 2026, after the previous draft lapsed on the same day without being finalised. The new notification will remain open for public objections and suggestions for 60 days before the Centre considers issuing a final notification.

The proposed ESA covers 56,825.7 sq. km across Gujarat, Maharashtra, Goa, Karnataka, Kerala and Tamil Nadu. However, there are no substantive changes in the proposed area, State-wise extent or regulatory provisions compared with the draft issued in July 2024.

The latest reissue therefore highlights the central problem that has kept the proposal unresolved for years: the Centre and the States have yet to agree on which villages and areas should be brought under ecological protection.

What Will the ESA Restrict?

If finalised, the notification would prohibit mining, quarrying and sand mining, along with new thermal power plants, certain industries and large construction projects within the proposed ESA. Activities such as hydropower generation would be regulated.

The restrictions have been a major concern for the six States, which have raised questions about their implications for agriculture, plantations, infrastructure and development.

The notification states that an expert committee constituted in 2022 is continuing to examine objections raised by State governments, including concerns over “the correct names and area of villages to be included in the ecologically sensitive area”.

The disagreement is therefore not over whether the Western Ghats are ecologically important, but largely over where protection should apply and what activities should be permitted within those areas.

Why the Western Ghats Matter

The Western Ghats stretch along India’s western coast and are recognised as one of the world’s important biodiversity hotspots. Geologically, they are among the oldest mountain systems in the world, formed during the breakup of the ancient supercontinent Gondwana, and are estimated to be around 150–200 million years old, far older than the Himalayas. This long evolutionary history has contributed to their exceptionally high levels of endemism, supporting a rich concentration of plant and animal species found nowhere else.

The mountain range also plays a crucial role in regulating the region’s water systems. Several major rivers originate in or are fed by the Western Ghats, making the landscape important for drinking water, agriculture and livelihoods across peninsular India.

The ecological significance also intersects with growing concerns over environmental degradation and disaster vulnerability. Parts of the Western Ghats have experienced recurring floods, landslides and extreme rainfall events, particularly during intense monsoon spells.

Landslide debris on a forested Western Ghats hillside within the proposed ESA.
Landslide debris and uprooted trees on a forested Western Ghats slope, highlighting the ecological vulnerability of areas proposed for ESA protection. Representational image. Image credit: Nhà văn/ Pexels

This makes land-use decisions in ecologically fragile mountain landscapes increasingly significant. The ESA proposal is intended to restrict activities that can cause environmental degradation, but States and local communities have repeatedly raised concerns about how such restrictions would affect people living and working in these areas.

Kerala’s Proposed ESA Remains Unchanged

Kerala accounts for 9,993.7 sq. km of the proposed ESA. The figure is lower than the 13,108 sq. km recommended for Kerala by the high-level working group headed by K. Kasturirangan. Kerala subsequently conducted its own field verification exercise, following which the proposed ESA area within the State was reduced.

In Wayanad, the latest draft retains the 13 villages across Mananthavady, Sulthan Bathery and Vythiri taluks that were included in the previous draft.

Karnataka has the largest proposed ESA area, followed by Maharashtra and Kerala.

A Dispute Dating Back to 2011

The debate over protection of the Western Ghats dates back to 2011, when the Western Ghats Ecology Expert Panel headed by ecologist Madhav Gadgil recommended treating the entire 1.29 lakh sq. km mountain chain as ecologically sensitive, with different levels of protection.

The recommendation faced opposition from the States over concerns that extensive environmental restrictions could affect development and livelihoods.

The Centre subsequently appointed a high-level working group headed by K. Kasturirangan to review the proposal. The group recommended designating about 37% of the Western Ghats, covering 59,940 sq. km of natural landscape, as an ESA.

Kerala later carried out its own field verification, reducing the proposed area in the State from 13,108 sq. km to 9,993.7 sq. km.

Since then, the proposal has gone through multiple rounds of consultations, revisions and draft notifications. Yet, more than a decade later, the Centre and the six States have not reached an agreement on the precise boundaries.

The latest notification is therefore less a revision of the government’s proposal than another attempt to move forward with a process that has remained unresolved for years.

The Centre has now opened another 60-day window for objections and suggestions. The outcome will determine whether the latest draft can finally move towards a final notification or whether the Western Ghats ESA proposal will enter another round of consultations.

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Climate

Assam Floods: Nagaland Rain, Swollen Rivers Drive Flooding

Assam’s flood situation has worsened, with 75 deaths and more than 3.3 lakh people affected across seven districts. Heavy rainfall in Nagaland triggered a rapid rise in Assam’s tributaries, while high Brahmaputra levels worsened the flooding across Upper Assam.

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Floodwaters surround homes as a person travels by boat through a submerged village amidst Assam's flood.
Floodwaters surround homes as a resident navigates a boat through a submerged settlement in Assam's flood. Representational image. Image credit: Long Ba Mui/ Pexels

For families across Upper Assam, the latest flood has brought homes surrounded by water, crops submerged and livestock moved to safer ground. Seven people drowned in Sivasagar on Tuesday, taking Assam’s flood death toll to 75. As of July 28, 3,32,639 people across 622 villages had been affected and 45,342 hectares of crop area submerged, according to the Assam State Disaster Management Authority (ASDMA).

The worst-hit districts of Assam’s flood are Sivasagar, Charaideo, Golaghat, Jorhat, Nagaon, Sonitpur and Kamrup Metropolitan. Charaideo has the highest number of affected people, followed by Sivasagar and Jorhat.

For families dependent on farming, however, the crisis will continue after the water recedes. A destroyed crop can mean a lost season’s income; damaged livestock, homes and farmland can make recovery harder.

Nearly 40% of Assam is Flood-Prone

Assam’s flood is not unusual. The state’s Water Resources Department estimates that 31.05 lakh hectares, or 39.58% of Assam’s total area, is flood-prone—nearly four times the national proportion of about 10.2%.

A 2026 study on Assam’s flood vulnerability in the Brahmaputra Valley also uses the figure to illustrate the Assam’s flood exposure. But exposure alone does not determine the damage. Household income, dependence on agriculture, housing, access to services and the ability to recover all shape how severely families are affected.

Heavy Rain Upstream Triggered the Latest Surge

The immediate trigger for the current flooding was heavy rainfall in neighbouring Nagaland and parts of Assam. Rain in Nagaland’s hill districts generated rapid runoff into Assam’s river system, raising tributaries including the Dikhow, Disang and Dhansiri. The already high Brahmaputra added to the problem by restricting how quickly these tributaries could drain into the main river.

The Assam Water Resources Department notes that flooding can become particularly severe when tributaries rise at the same time as the Brahmaputra.

So, the current crisis is not simply a case of the Brahmaputra overflowing. Heavy upstream rainfall triggered the surge; swollen tributaries carried the water into Upper Assam, while high Brahmaputra levels worsened drainage.

For farmers, the Losses Outlast the Flood

The 45,342 hectares of submerged cropland represent immediate agricultural losses. For farmers, those losses can mean months without income and fewer resources to prepare for the next season.

Assam's flood submerges homes as a man stands behind a fence in muddy floodwater.
Assam’s flood leaves a residential area submerged as a man stands behind a fence surrounded by muddy water. Representational image. Image credit: Faisal Ibne Kalam/ Pexels

Floods can also kill livestock, damage homes and equipment, deposit sand on fields and accelerate riverbank erosion. When farmland itself disappears, recovery becomes even harder.

Assam’s Flood: Relief Measures Taken

As of July 28, 81 relief camps were sheltering more than 32,000 displaced people, while relief distribution centres were operating across affected areas.

The state government has announced ₹9 lakh for each family that lost a member, including ₹4 lakh in ex-gratia assistance and ₹5 lakh from the Chief Minister’s Relief Fund. More than one lakh severely affected families will receive ₹15,000, while students in the worst-hit districts will receive book grants.

The assistance can help families meet immediate needs. But compensation cannot prevent another flood from causing similar losses.

What Can Reduce the Damage?

Since Assam cannot control heavy rainfall in neighbouring states, better preparation upstream and faster action downstream are critical. Real-time monitoring of rainfall and river levels in Nagaland and other upstream catchments can provide earlier warnings. Those warnings must reach villages quickly, with clear instructions on evacuation routes and safe shelters.

Flood-prone communities also need safer housing, accessible evacuation centres and infrastructure designed around local flood levels. Protecting livelihoods through crop insurance, livestock support, emergency credit and flood-tolerant farming can reduce the financial shock.

Flood management also needs to follow the river system rather than administrative boundaries. Rainfall in an upstream catchment can quickly affect communities hundreds of kilometres downstream.

The Losses That Remain.

Assam’s flood follows multiple flood waves in 2025, with the last recorded wave continuing into October. That matters because households may still be recovering from one flood when another arrives. A lost crop, dead livestock or eroded farmland can leave a family with fewer resources to face the next season. With 39.58% of Assam’s land already classified as flood-prone, the challenge is not simply getting people through this year’s flood. It is reducing the losses that families carry from one flood season to the next.

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Monsoon Intensifies Across 10 States as IMD Issues Heavy Rain Alert

The southwest monsoon is set to intensify across India as a Bay of Bengal depression strengthens, prompting heavy rain alerts for more than 10 states. With many regions already affected by floods and landslides, the fresh spell of rainfall could worsen flooding, disrupt daily life and increase disaster risks.

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Heavy monsoon alert in India
Heavy monsoon rains prompt the IMD to issue alerts across more than 10 Indian states as a Bay of Bengal depression intensifies. Representational image. Image credit: Th2city Santana/Pexels

The southwest monsoon is set to intensify across large parts of India over the next few days as a depression over the northwest Bay of Bengal strengthens, prompting the India Meteorological Department (IMD) to issue heavy rainfall alerts for more than 10 states.

The weather system is expected to bring heavy to extremely heavy rainfall across eastern, central, western and northern India, increasing the risk of floods, landslides and waterlogging. The fresh spell of rain comes at a time when several states are already dealing with the impacts of an active monsoon, making them more vulnerable to further weather-related disasters.

Bay of Bengal Depression to Strengthen Monsoon

According to the IMD, a low-pressure area over the northwest Bay of Bengal and adjoining Odisha–West Bengal coast is likely to intensify into a depression before moving west-northwest across Odisha, Chhattisgarh and central India.

A depression is a well-organised low-pressure weather system that forms over warm ocean waters. During the southwest monsoon, the Bay of Bengal is the primary region where these systems develop. As they move inland, they transport large amounts of moisture from the sea, producing widespread rainfall over several states. Although weaker than cyclones, monsoon depressions are among the most important drivers of India’s seasonal rainfall.

The IMD has forecast isolated extremely heavy rainfall over Odisha and Chhattisgarh, while heavy to very heavy rainfall is expected across parts of Madhya Pradesh, Maharashtra, Gujarat, Rajasthan, Uttar Pradesh, Uttarakhand, Himachal Pradesh, Gangetic West Bengal, Konkan and Goa. Widespread rainfall is also likely across the northeastern states, including Assam, Meghalaya, Arunachal Pradesh, Nagaland, Manipur, Mizoram and Tripura.

Fresh Rain Could Worsen Existing Floods

The latest depression arrives after several weeks of intense monsoon activity across the country. States such as Himachal Pradesh and Uttarakhand have witnessed recurring landslides and flash floods, while Assam has experienced repeated flooding as the Brahmaputra and its tributaries swelled following continuous rainfall. Parts of Gujarat, Maharashtra and central India have also reported flooding and waterlogging after successive spells of heavy rain.

Meteorologists say the concern is not only the amount of rain expected but also where it will fall. Much of the landscape in these regions has already become saturated, reducing its ability to absorb additional rainfall.

When soil reaches its storage capacity, fresh rainfall flows directly into streams and rivers instead of soaking into the ground. This increases surface runoff, causing rivers to rise more rapidly and raising the risk of flash floods and urban flooding. In hilly regions, continuous rainfall also weakens slopes, making landslides more likely.

Growth of Climate Challenge

Scientists increasingly describe situations like these as compound weather events, where one weather event amplifies the impact of another. A fresh spell of heavy rain falling over flood-affected areas can prolong flooding, delay recovery and increase damage to homes, roads and public infrastructure.

Heavy monsoon: IMD alerts heavy rainfall in India
An Indian commuter pushes his bicycle through deep floodwaters on a waterlogged street, illustrating the disruption caused by severe monsoon weather. The IMD continues to issue heavy rainfall alerts across multiple states. Representational image. Image credit: Dibakar Roy/Pexels

Climate change is expected to make these risks more pronounced. According to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), the atmosphere can hold about 7% more moisture for every 1°C rise in temperature, increasing the potential for intense rainfall during monsoon weather systems. Studies by the India Meteorological Department and the Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology have also reported an increase in short-duration extreme rainfall events across parts of India over recent decades.

Authorities Urge Vigilance

The IMD has advised residents in flood- and landslide-prone areas to closely monitor weather updates and follow local advisories. Fishermen have been warned against venturing into the Bay of Bengal and adjoining parts of the Arabian Sea due to rough sea conditions.

State disaster management agencies are also monitoring river levels, reservoir inflows and vulnerable districts as the depression moves inland.

While the active monsoon is expected to replenish reservoirs and support the ongoing kharif cropping season, the latest depression highlights the growing challenge of managing consecutive extreme rainfall events. For communities already affected by floods and landslides, the coming days will test the resilience of infrastructure, disaster response systems and local preparedness as another round of heavy rain sweeps across the country.

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