Climate
India’s Infrastructure Push Is Racing Ahead of Its Climate Insurance Cover
India’s infrastructure spending has crossed 3% of GDP, but climate risk is rising even faster. As floods and extreme weather become more predictable, parts of the country are edging towards the limits of insurability—raising urgent questions about how resilient India’s growth really is.
India is investing in infrastructure at a scale unprecedented in its post-liberalisation history. Capital expenditure on infrastructure has now crossed 3% of GDP, spanning railways, highways, ports, power plants and airports—assets designed to last well over half a century. Yet, as new research shows, a growing share of this infrastructure is coming up in regions increasingly exposed to climate extremes, raising a critical question for policymakers, insurers and investors alike: can India afford to insure the future it is building?
A new report by Climate Trends on climate risks and insurance for India’s infrastructure argues that climate impacts are no longer episodic shocks. Instead, they are following a clear upward trajectory in frequency, severity and geographic spread, particularly after the mid-2010s. Hydro-meteorological disasters—floods, extreme rainfall, cyclones and landslides—now dominate India’s climate risk profile, with flood risk emerging as the most persistent hazard for fixed, high-value assets.
When Growth and Risk Rise at Different Speeds
One of the report’s central findings is the non-linear relationship between asset growth and climate exposure. Using Delhi as a case study, the analysis shows that while urban expansion grew at roughly 1.3% CAGR between 1986 and 2016, flood exposure increased at nearly 2.46% CAGR, creating a widening divergence that is projected to grow further over time.
This divergence matters because infrastructure assets are geographically fixed and designed for long operational lives. As asset concentration rises and climate impacts become more predictable, the report warns that certain regions may approach the threshold of uninsurability, where premiums become unaffordable or coverage simply unavailable.
Insurers See Opportunity—and Limits
To test these risks against market realities, the researchers surveyed leading non-life insurers and reinsurers operating in India, including SBI General Insurance, Munich Re India, Swiss Re India and General Insurance Corporation of India.
The responses reveal a nuanced picture. Insurers broadly agree that most of India remains insurable, and climate risk insurance is still viewed as a business opportunity. However, hydropower projects and national highways located in flood- and landslide-prone regions repeatedly emerged as areas of concern. One insurer reported rising premium unaffordability for hydropower projects—an especially notable finding given that many planned hydropower assets are located in high-risk Himalayan regions vulnerable to landslides, floods and glacial lake outburst floods (GLOFs).
| >> Globally, insured property losses exceeded USD 140 billion in FY 2024–25 |
| >> India’s natural catastrophe losses in 2023 alone reached USD 12 billion |
A consistent challenge flagged across insurers is the difficulty of pricing climate risk under deep uncertainty. Respondents highlighted gaps in modelling for long-term risks such as sea-level rise, forest fires and compound events, raising the likelihood of a widening protection gap between economic losses and insured coverage.
Losses Are Already Mounting
The financial context underscores why these concerns are intensifying. Globally, insured property losses exceeded USD 140 billion in FY 2024–25, while India’s natural catastrophe losses in 2023 alone reached USD 12 billion, significantly above the previous decade’s average.
Sub-national data further sharpens the picture. States such as Assam, Andhra Pradesh, Odisha, Uttarakhand, Himachal Pradesh, Sikkim, Ladakh and several north-eastern states are identified as among the most climate-vulnerable. Yet these regions also host some of India’s largest infrastructure investments, amounting to nearly Rs 2.95 lakh crore—from port modernisation projects in Odisha and Andhra Pradesh to tunnels, highways and hydropower projects in the Himalayas.
Insurance Is Evolving—but Not Fast Enough
Insurers acknowledge the gap and point to ongoing innovation. Parametric insurance products for heat stress, excess rainfall and flooding are gaining traction, alongside state-level risk transfer mechanisms. Yet coverage remains absent for several high-impact events, including cloudbursts and landslides, even as these hazards grow more frequent.
At the same time, India’s insurance market is expanding rapidly. Premiums are projected to grow at 6.7% in life insurance and 8.3% in non-life insurance through 2028, reflecting both economic growth and rising climate vulnerability.
The concern, however, is whether risk pricing can keep pace with physical reality.
Integrating Climate Risk Before the First Brick
The report also says that climate resilience must shift from being a post-disaster consideration to a core design constraint in infrastructure planning. Among its key recommendations are the standardisation of regulatory frameworks for risk disclosure, underwriting, premium pricing and loss assessment, alongside investment in advanced actuarial models and innovative instruments such as parametric insurance and catastrophe bonds.
Aarti Khosla, Founder and Director of Climate Trends, notes: “As India seeks big investments at the World Economic Forum and plans double-digit (nominal) growth over the next five years, it would be remiss to not point out the risks to India’s infrastructure posed by climate impacts and extreme weather events – which are unarguably increasing in frequency, severity, and geographical spread. The country’s rising exposure for its essential assets could thus lead to mounting climate-induced losses, which would be a fiscal and financial burden. Climate resilience must therefore be integrated into infrastructure planning from the very beginning to minimise the costs of post-disaster reconstruction. Also, several steps will have to come together to ensure long-term insurance viability for such assets, such as advanced actuarial models and standardised frameworks for risk disclosure, premium pricing and loss assessment.”
The Risk Beneath the Growth Story
India’s infrastructure push is central to its growth ambitions and long-term self-sufficiency. But the evidence suggests that climate risk is fast becoming a primary determinant of whether that growth remains financially sustainable. Without integrating resilience and insurability into planning decisions today, the cost of tomorrow’s infrastructure may be borne not just by insurers, but by public finances and future generations.
Climate
Ancient lake sediments suggest India’s monsoon was far stronger during medieval warm period
New palaeoclimate evidence from central India suggests that the Indian Summer Monsoon was significantly stronger during the medieval warm period than previously believed
India’s monsoon history may be more intense than previously assumed, according to new palaeoclimate evidence recovered from lake sediments in central India. Scientists analysing microscopic pollen preserved in Raja Rani Lake, in present-day Korba district of Chhattisgarh, have found signs of unusually strong and sustained Indian Summer Monsoon rainfall between about 1,060 and 1,725 CE.
The findings come from researchers at the Birbal Sahni Institute of Palaeosciences (BSIP), an autonomous institute under the Department of Science and Technology, and are based on a detailed reconstruction of vegetation and climate in India’s Core Monsoon Zone (CMZ)—the region that receives nearly 90 percent of the country’s annual rainfall from the Indian Summer Monsoon.
Reading climate history from pollen
Researchers extracted a 40-centimetre-long sediment core from Raja Rani Lake. These layers of mud record environmental changes spanning roughly the last 2,500 years. Embedded within them are fossil pollen grains released by plants that once grew around the lake.
By identifying and counting these grains—a method known as palynology—the team reconstructed past vegetation patterns and inferred climate conditions. Forest species that thrive in warm, humid environments point to periods of strong rainfall, while grasses and herbs are indicators of relatively drier phases.
According to the scientists, the pollen record from the medieval period shows a clear dominance of moist and dry tropical deciduous forest taxa. This points to a persistently warm and humid climate in central India, driven by a strong monsoon system, with no evidence of prolonged dry spells within the CMZ during that time.
Medieval Climate Anomaly linked to stronger monsoon
The period of intensified rainfall coincides with the Medieval Climate Anomaly (MCA), a globally recognised warm phase dated to roughly 1,060–1,725 CE. The study suggests that the strengthened Indian Summer Monsoon during this interval was shaped by a combination of global and regional drivers.
In a media statement, the researchers noted that La Niña–like conditions—typically associated with stronger Indian monsoons—may have prevailed during the MCA. Other contributing factors likely included a northward shift of the Inter Tropical Convergence Zone, positive temperature anomalies, higher sunspot numbers and increased solar activity.
Why this matters today
The Core Monsoon Zone is particularly sensitive to fluctuations in the Indian Summer Monsoon, making it a key region for understanding long-term hydroclimatic variability during the Late Holocene (also known as the Meghalayan Age). Scientists say insights from this period are crucial for contextualising present-day monsoon behaviour under ongoing climate change.
The BSIP team said high-resolution palaeoclimate records such as these can strengthen climate models used to simulate future rainfall patterns. Beyond academic interest, the findings have implications for water management, agriculture and climate-resilient policy planning in monsoon-dependent regions.
By revealing that central India once experienced a more intense and sustained monsoon than previously recognised, the study adds a deeper historical perspective to debates on how the Indian monsoon may respond to current and future warming.
Climate
ESG Narratives and the Talk–Walk Gap: Why Climate Commitments Still Fall Short
As ESG rhetoric becomes increasingly sophisticated, measurable climate outcomes continue to lag behind corporate promises. From net-zero pledges to digital green narratives, the growing “Talk–Walk Gap” raises urgent questions about accountability, transparency, and the future credibility of global sustainability commitments.
The end of 2025 marks the close of another chapter in which much of the global discourse appears to have grown comfortable with ESG (Environmental Social Governance) messaging, even as its tangible impact remains uncertain. What was once framed as a pathway toward an eco-friendly and socially responsible future increasingly risks stagnating as an idealistic, almost utopian concept.
Corporations, meanwhile, have become adept at constructing environments where ESG strategies are articulated confidently but seldom questioned. Sustainability reports are published, climate targets are announced, and long-term commitments are projected — yet the link between these narratives and measurable environmental outcomes often remains unclear.
As debates around ESG continue to unfold in the background, it becomes crucial to ask a more fundamental question: does corporate ESG practice genuinely seek to serve society in a holistic sense, or does it primarily operate to protect vested interests? Examining ESG narratives and their real-world implications is therefore essential, particularly given the immediacy and evolving nature of today’s climate and sustainability challenges.
Current Relevance and Importance
The relevance of this discussion intensifies amid the ongoing COP30 controversy, where the participation of major contributors to environmental instability has drawn global attention. Many of the actors shaping climate discourse continue to represent high-emission industries, raising concerns about how environmental threats are increasingly reframed as economic opportunities.
Factual investigations by Climate Action Against Disinformation (CAAD) offer a close-range view of how digital platforms were leveraged in the run-up to the summit. Their recent report documents how major oil companies made extensive use of Google’s advertising ecosystem, pursuing an aggressive strategy to influence online climate narratives. As of October 2025, oil company advertisements increased globally by 218%, while ads specifically targeting Brazil surged by 2,900%.
Company-level data further illustrates the scale of this intervention. Advertising activity by Saudi Aramco rose by 469.2% month-on-month in October, alongside significant increases by TotalEnergies (106.5%) and ExxonMobil (156.3%). Together, these patterns highlight the extent to which corporate actors can shape climate discourse during moments of heightened political attention (CAAD).
Parallel concerns were reflected in the Statement of Commitment on Climate Information Integrity in Digital Advertising, launched at COP30, which drew attention to climate-related advertising that disseminates misleading narratives, erodes public trust, and operates with limited transparency. The issue of climate disinformation is no longer abstract; it is observable, measurable, and increasingly consequential for public understanding and democratic accountability.
COP30, as a global stage for climate action, therefore also exposed the limits of information transparency in digital ecosystems. The prevalence of paid green narratives and strategic messaging raises questions about whose interests are amplified and whose are marginalised. In such settings, sustainability narratives function less as instruments of accountability and more as strategic proclamations designed to preserve influence and legitimacy, widening the distance between climate ambition and climate action.
Net Zero Commitments vs Net Zero Outcomes
Data from the Net Zero Tracker — a joint initiative of the Energy & Climate Intelligence Unit (ECIU), Data-Driven EnviroLab, the NewClimate Institute, and the University of Oxford — illustrates this imbalance clearly. The analysis indicates that 62.7% of companies actively communicate net-zero intentions through strategy, pledges, or proposed targets, yet fail to provide verifiable evidence of achievement. In contrast, only a negligible fraction of firms can demonstrate externally validated net-zero outcomes, based on an assessment of the world’s 2,000 largest publicly listed companies by annual revenue (Net Zero Tracker, 2024–2025 dataset).
This disparity suggests that ESG communication, in many cases, operates as a narrative exercise rather than a performance-driven framework. The widening gap between declared intent and measurable delivery makes it imperative to examine what can be described as the “Talk–Walk Gap” — the divergence between sustainability messaging and substantive environmental action.
Combining Next-Generation AI and ESG Accountability
Artificial Intelligence, particularly Natural Language Processing (NLP), offers a practical mechanism for analysing this gap. Repetition across CSR reports, sustainability disclosures, and corporate press releases can be systematically examined to identify patterns of narrative reuse rather than strategic progression.
Through techniques that assess verbal mimicry, keyword recurrence, and semantic similarity, NLP can help distinguish genuine ESG evolution from recycled sustainability rhetoric. When ESG language remains largely unchanged across reporting cycles, despite shifting climate risks and regulatory expectations, it raises questions about whether commitments are being operationalised or merely reiterated.
Such analytical tools allow consumers, investors, and policymakers to make more informed decisions. Importantly, they reduce the likelihood that green financing instruments and green bonds are used merely as tools of financial leverage rather than vehicles for genuine environmental transition. In this sense, AI does not replace accountability; it strengthens transparency by exposing inconsistencies between communication and action.
Aftermath
The implications of weak ESG accountability extend beyond corporate strategy and into everyday life. Sustainability narratives increasingly shape consumption patterns, influencing how products and technologies are marketed and normalised within ordinary lifestyles. From energy-intensive appliances to digitally driven conveniences, ESG claims often accompany commodities whose environmental alignment remains unclear.

Whether such practices genuinely contribute to global sustainability objectives — including UN Sustainable Development Goals 7 (Affordable and Clean Energy) and 12 (Responsible Consumption and Production) — remains uncertain within the current corporate landscape. Society itself becomes an unwitting participant in this system, reinforcing narratives without adequate mechanisms for verification.
In an era increasingly shaped by generative AI, the need to detect misalignment between corporate objectives, policy commitments, and actual performance becomes more pressing. While these technologies can be used to amplify corporate messaging, they can also be deployed in the public interest — as tools to flag inconsistencies, assess credibility, and strengthen accountability across ESG ecosystems.
The integration of AI into ESG governance is not without risk, and it requires clear ethical boundaries, institutional oversight, and internationally aligned standards. Frameworks developed by internal governance bodies, alongside external institutions such as the United Nations, can help ensure that AI serves as a mechanism for transparency rather than a vehicle for strategic distortion.
This underscores the growing importance of collective scrutiny and informed engagement with ESG principles. Understanding how sustainability is communicated, validated, and implemented is not merely a corporate concern, but a societal one. Addressing the Talk–Walk Gap therefore requires sustained evaluation, improved verification, and transparent progress — not abrupt disruption, but deliberate and accountable change.
Earth
The Heat Trap: How Climate Change Is Pushing Extreme Weather Into New Parts of the World
MIT scientists say a hidden feature of the atmosphere is allowing dangerous humid heat to build up in parts of the world that were once considered climatically mild — setting the stage for longer heat waves and more violent storms.
For decades, long spells of suffocating heat followed by explosive thunderstorms were largely confined to the tropics. But that pattern is now spreading into the planet’s midlatitudes, and researchers at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology believe they know why.
In a new study published in Science Advances, MIT scientists have identified atmospheric inversions — layers of warm air sitting over cooler air near the ground — as a critical factor controlling how hot, humid, and storm-prone a region can become. Their findings suggest that parts of the United States and East Asia could face unfamiliar and dangerous combinations of oppressive heat and extreme rainfall as the climate continues to warm.
Inversions are already notorious for trapping air pollution close to the ground. The MIT team now shows they also act like thermal lids, allowing heat and moisture to accumulate near the surface for days at a time. The longer an inversion persists, the more unbearable the humid heat becomes. And when that lid finally breaks, the stored energy can be released violently, fuelling intense thunderstorms and heavy downpours.
“Our analysis shows that the eastern and midwestern regions of U.S. and the eastern Asian regions may be new hotspots for humid heat in the future climate,” said Funing Li, a postdoctoral researcher in MIT’s Department of Earth, Atmospheric and Planetary Sciences, in a media statement.
The mechanism is especially important in midlatitude regions, where inversions are common. In the US, areas east of the Rocky Mountains frequently experience warm air aloft flowing over cooler surface air — a configuration that can linger and intensify under climate change.
“As the climate warms, theoretically the atmosphere will be able to hold more moisture,” said Talia Tamarin-Brodsky, an assistant professor at MIT and co-author of the study, in a media statement. “Which is why new regions in the midlatitudes could experience moist heat waves that will cause stress that they weren’t used to before.”
Why heat doesn’t always break
Under normal conditions, rising surface temperatures trigger convection: warm air rises, cool air sinks, clouds form, and storms develop that can eventually cool things down. But the researchers approached the problem differently, asking what actually limits how much heat and moisture can build up before convection begins.
By analysing the total energy of air near the surface — combining both dry heat and moisture — they found that inversions dramatically raise that limit. When warm air caps cooler air below, surface air must accumulate far more energy before it can rise through the barrier. The stronger and more stable the inversion, the more extreme the heat and humidity must become.
“This increasing inversion has two effects: more severe humid heat waves, and less frequent but more extreme convective storms,” Tamarin-Brodsky said.
A Midwest warning sign
Inversions can form overnight, when the ground cools rapidly, or when cool marine air slides under warmer air inland. But in the central United States, geography plays a key role.
“The Great Plains and the Midwest have had many inversions historically due to the Rocky Mountains,” Li said in a media statement. “The mountains act as an efficient elevated heat source, and westerly winds carry this relatively warm air downstream into the central and midwestern U.S., where it can help create a persistent temperature inversion that caps colder air near the surface.”
As global warming strengthens and stabilises these atmospheric layers, the researchers warn that regions like the Midwest may be pushed toward climate extremes once associated with far warmer parts of the world.
“In a future climate for the Midwest, they may experience both more severe thunderstorms and more extreme humid heat waves,” Tamarin-Brodsky said in a media statement. “Our theory gives an understanding of the limit for humid heat and severe convection for these communities that will be future heat wave and thunderstorm hotspots.”
The study offers climate scientists a new way to assess regional risk — and a stark reminder that climate change is not just intensifying known hazards, but exporting them to places unprepared for their consequences.
-
Society3 weeks agoThe Ten-Rupee Doctor Who Sparked a Health Revolution in Kerala’s Tribal Highlands
-
Space & Physics6 months agoNew double-slit experiment proves Einstein’s predictions were off the mark
-
Earth2 months agoData Becomes the New Oil: IEA Says AI Boom Driving Global Power Demand
-
COP302 months agoCorporate Capture: Fossil Fuel Lobbyists at COP30 Hit Record High, Outnumbering Delegates from Climate-Vulnerable Nations
-
COP303 months agoBrazil Cuts Emissions by 17% in 2024—Biggest Drop in 16 Years, Yet Paris Target Out of Reach
-
Women In Science3 months agoThe Data Don’t Lie: Women Are Still Missing from Science — But Why?
-
Space & Physics1 month agoIndian Physicists Win 2025 ICTP Prize for Breakthroughs in Quantum Many-Body Physics
-
Space & Physics6 months agoJoint NASA-ISRO radar satellite is the most powerful built to date


