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The Dragon and the Elephant Dance for a Cleaner World

New reports from the IEA and Ember show that China and India are leading a global turning point — where renewables now outpace fossil fuels.

Dipin Damodharan

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China India dance jpeg
Symbolic representation of China’s dragon and India’s elephant, formed from solar panels and wind turbines, dancing above a lightly mapped Asia and global grid, illustrating their leadership in the renewable energy revolution/EdPublica

In late September, EdPublica reported an inspirational story from Perinjanam, a quiet coastal village in the South Indian state Kerala, where rooftops gleam with solar panels and homes have turned into micro power plants. It was a story of how ordinary citizens, through community effort and government support, took part in a just energy transition.

That local story, seemingly small, was in fact a mirror of a far bigger movement unfolding worldwide. Now, two major global reports–one from the International Energy Agency (IEA) and another from the independent think tank Ember–confirm that the world is entering a decisive new phase in its energy transformation. Together, their findings show that 2025 is shaping up to be the turning point year: the moment when renewables not only surpassed coal but began meeting all new global electricity demand. The year will likely be remembered as the moment when the global energy transition stopped being a promise and became a measurable reality — led by the two Asian giants, China and India.

The Global Picture: IEA’s Big Forecast

‘The IEA’s Renewables 2025’ report, released on October 7, paints an extraordinary picture of growth and possibility. Despite global headwinds — including high interest rates, supply chain bottlenecks, and policy shifts — renewable energy capacity is projected to more than double by 2030, adding 4,600 gigawatts (GW) of new renewable power.

To grasp that number: it’s equivalent to building the entire current electricity generation capacity of China, the European Union, and Japan combined.

At the centre of this boom is solar photovoltaic (PV) technology, which will account for around 80% of the total growth. The IEA calls solar “the backbone of the energy transition,” driven by falling costs, faster permitting processes, and widespread adoption across emerging economies. Wind, hydropower, bioenergy, and geothermal follow closely behind, expanding capacity even as global systems adapt to higher shares of variable power.

“The growth in global renewable capacity in the coming years will be dominated by solar PV – but with wind, hydropower, bioenergy and geothermal all contributing, too,” said Fatih Birol, Executive Director of the IEA. “As renewables’ role in electricity systems rises in many countries, policymakers need to play close attention to supply chain security and grid integration challenges.”

The IEA forecasts particularly rapid progress in emerging markets. India is set to become the second-largest renewables growth market in the world, after China, reaching its ambitious 2030 targets comfortably. The report highlights new policy instruments — such as auction programs and rooftop solar incentives — that are spurring confidence across Asia, the Middle East, and Africa.

In India, the expansion of corporate power purchase agreements, utility contracts, and merchant renewable plants is also driving a quiet revolution, accounting for nearly 30% of global renewable capacity expansion to 2030.

At the same time, challenges remain. The IEA points to a worrying concentration of solar PV manufacturing in China, where over 90% of supply chain capacity for key components like polysilicon and rare earth materials is expected to remain by 2030.

Grid integration is another bottleneck. As solar and wind grow, many countries are already facing curtailments — when renewable power cannot be fed into the grid due to overload or mismatch in demand. The IEA stresses the need for urgent investment in transmission infrastructure, storage technologies, and flexible generation to prevent this momentum from being wasted.

Evidence on the Ground

If the IEA’s report is a map of where we’re going, Ember’s Mid-Year Global Electricity Review 2025 shows where we are right now — and the signs are unmistakable.

Ember’s data, covering the first half of 2025, reveals that solar and wind met all of the world’s rising electricity demand — and even caused a slight decline in fossil fuel generation. It’s a first in recorded history.

“We are seeing the first signs of a crucial turning point,” said Małgorzata Wiatros-Motyka, Senior Electricity Analyst at Ember. “Solar and wind are now growing fast enough to meet the world’s growing appetite for electricity. This marks the beginning of a shift where clean power is keeping pace with demand growth.”

Global electricity demand rose by 2.6% in early 2025, adding about 369 terawatt-hours (TWh) compared with the same period last year. Solar alone met 83% of that rise, thanks to record generation growth of 306 TWh, a year-on-year increase of 31%. Wind contributed another 97 TWh, leading to a net decline in both coal and gas generation.

Coal generation fell 0.6% (-31 TWh) and gas 0.2% (-6 TWh), marking a combined fossil decline of 0.3% (-27 TWh). As a result, global power sector emissions fell by 0.2%, even as demand continued to grow.

Most significantly, for the first time ever, renewables generated more power than coal. Renewables supplied 5,072 TWh, overtaking coal’s 4,896 TWh — a symbolic but historic milestone.

“Solar and wind are no longer marginal technologies — they are driving the global power system forward,” said Sonia Dunlop, CEO of the Global Solar Council. “The fact that renewables have overtaken coal for the first time marks a historic shift.”

China and India Lead the Way

The two reports together highlight that the epicenter of the clean energy shift is now in Asia.

According to Ember, China’s fossil generation fell by 2% (-58.7 TWh) in the first half of 2025, as clean power growth outpaced rising electricity demand. Solar generation jumped 43% (+168 TWh), and wind grew 16% (+79 TWh), together helping cut the country’s power sector emissions by 1.7% (-47 MtCO₂).

Meanwhile, India’s fossil fuel decline was even steeper in relative terms. Solar and wind generation grew at record pace — solar by 25% (+17 TWh) and wind by 29% (+11 TWh) — while electricity demand rose only 1.3%, far slower than in 2024. The result: coal use dropped 3.1% (-22 TWh) and gas by 34% (-7 TWh), leading to an estimated 3.6% fall in power sector emissions.

For both countries, these numbers align closely with the IEA’s projections. Together, China and India are now the primary engines of renewable capacity growth, demonstrating how large emerging economies can pivot toward clean energy while maintaining development momentum.

Setbacks Elsewhere

Yet progress is uneven. In the United States and European Union, fossil generation actually rose in early 2025.

In the U.S., a 3.6% rise in demand outpaced clean power additions, leading to a 17% increase in coal generation (+51 TWh), though gas use fell slightly. The EU also saw higher gas and coal use due to weaker wind and hydro output.

The IEA attributes part of this slowdown to policy uncertainty, especially in the U.S., where an early phase-out of federal tax incentives has reduced renewable growth expectations by almost 50% compared to last year’s forecast. Europe’s problem is different — a mature but strained grid facing seasonal fluctuations and low wind output.

10. Indias clean electricity growth drove down fossil generation in H1 2025@2x

These regional discrepancies underscore the IEA’s core message: achieving a clean power future isn’t just about building more solar farms, but about building smarter systems — integrated, flexible, and resilient.

Beyond Power

Both reports agree that while renewables are transforming electricity, their impact on transport and heating remains limited.

In transport, the IEA projects renewables’ share to rise modestly from 4% today to 6% in 2030, mostly through electric vehicles and biofuels. In heating, renewables are set to grow from 14% to 18% of global energy use over the same period.

These slower-moving sectors will define the next frontier of decarbonization — one where electrification, hydrogen, and new thermal storage technologies must play a greater role.

The Big Picture

Put together, the IEA’s forecasts and Ember’s real-world data signal that the clean energy transition has passed the point of no return.

Solar and wind are no longer simply catching up — they are now shaping global power dynamics. Their continued expansion is not only meeting new demand but beginning to displace fossil fuels outright.

“As costs of technologies continue to fall, now is the perfect moment to embrace the economic, social and health benefits that come with increased solar, wind and batteries,” said Ember’s Wiatros-Motyka.

Yet both agencies caution: to sustain this momentum, governments must expand grid capacity, diversify supply chains, and improve energy storage systems. Without these, the 2025 breakthrough could become a bottleneck.

3. Global solar installations were 64 higher in the first half of 2025 than in the same time last year@2x

A Symbol and a Signal

In a way, the world in 2025 looks a lot like Perinjanam did a few years ago — a place where optimism met obstacles, but the light won. What was once a village-scale transition is now a planetary transformation, proving that even small local models can foreshadow global change.

From Kerala’s rooftops to China’s vast solar parks, from India’s wind corridors to Africa’s mini-grids, the direction is unmistakable: the sun and wind are powering the next phase of human progress.

If 2024 was the year of warnings, 2025 is the year of evidence. The global energy system is finally tilting toward sustainability — not someday, but today.

Dipin Damodharan is the Co-founder and Editor-in-Chief of EdPublica. A journalist and editor with over 15 years of experience leading and co-founding both print and digital media outlets, he has written extensively on education, politics, and culture. His work has appeared in global publications such as The Huffington Post, The Himalayan Times, DailyO, Education Insider, and others.

Society

How a South Indian Startup Is Reimagining Agriculture From the Sky

From flood-ravaged fields in Kerala to precision farming systems powered by drones, Fuselage Innovations is rethinking agriculture through data, efficiency, and real-time intelligence.

Rishika Nair

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How Drone Technology In Agriculture Is Helping a South Indian Startup Reimagine farming
Image credits: Fuselage Innovations

Drone technology in agriculture is rapidly changing how farmers monitor crops, manage resources and improve productivity. A South Indian startup is now using aerial innovation and precision farming tools to reshape agriculture from the sky

In 2018, catastrophic floods swept across South Indian state of Kerala, submerging farmland and leaving behind more than visible damage. When the waters receded, they revealed a deeper crisis—soil chemistry had changed, salinity had increased, and farming systems that had sustained communities for generations no longer behaved the same way.

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For many farmers, the land had become unfamiliar.

For Devan Chandrasekharan, an aeronautical engineer with roots in farming, this moment marked a turning point.

“That moment made it clear that agriculture needed more than incremental change,” he says. “It needed a different way of understanding what’s happening in the field.”

Today, as co-founder of Fuselage Innovations, a Kerala-headquartered agritech company with operations expanding across southern India and early international pilots, Devan is part of a new wave of innovators rethinking agriculture through technology.

Drone technology in agriculture being used above farmland for crop monitoring and precision spraying in modern farming.
Image credits: Fuselage Innovations

Drone Technology in Agriculture: From Fields to Flight Paths

Modern agriculture is increasingly shaped by data. But while satellite systems offer scale, they often lack immediacy. Cloud cover, delays, and low resolution limit their usefulness in time-sensitive decisions.

“In farming, timing is everything,” Devan notes. “If you cannot act at the right moment, even the best data loses its value.”

Fuselage Innovations addresses this gap using drones equipped with multispectral sensors, capable of capturing real-time, high-resolution data directly from the field. These systems detect early signs of stress—nutrient deficiencies, pest risks, or water imbalances—long before they become visible.

Farming as a Predictive System

The company’s approach goes beyond aerial imaging. It is built around a stage-wise model that tracks crop growth from early development to harvest, linking each phase to targeted interventions.

This transforms farming from a reactive process into a predictive one.

“Instead of responding to visible damage, we can identify stress signals early and intervene precisely,” Devan says. “That changes the entire economics of farming.”

The results are significant. Field applications have shown yield increases of up to 35 percent, alongside a reduction of nearly 50 percent in pesticide and fertiliser use. Precision spraying has also cut input volumes dramatically—from 150–200 litres per acre to just 10–15 litres—reducing both costs and environmental impact.

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Scaling Beyond Boundaries

While the company’s early work was rooted in Kerala, its reach has expanded into Tamil Nadu and other parts of India, with pilot projects now extending to international markets such as Canada.

“Farming challenges may vary across regions, but the need for efficiency, sustainability, and better decision-making is universal,” Devan says.

Yet adoption remains a challenge. Farming is inherently risk-sensitive, and new technologies are often met with caution. To address this, the company initially offered its services free of cost, allowing farmers to see results before committing.

“Trust is the biggest barrier,” Devan says. “Farmers need to see the impact on their own fields before they adopt something new.”

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Devika Chandrasekharan, Devan Chandrasekharan

The Future from Above

As climate pressures intensify and resource constraints deepen, agriculture is entering a new phase—one where data and precision will define productivity.

“Technology alone cannot solve agriculture,” Devan emphasises. “But when it is aligned with the realities of farmers and ecosystems, it can become a powerful tool for transformation.”

What began in the aftermath of a flood has now evolved into a model for the future—where farming is not just guided by tradition, but informed by intelligence.

Because the future of agriculture may not lie only in the soil—but in how we see it from above.

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Society

The Coal Paradox: More Coal Plants, Less Coal Power

A new Global Energy Monitor report shows global coal capacity rising in 2025 even as coal-fired electricity generation declines amid rapid renewable energy growth.

Rishika Nair

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coal j
Image credit: Dapur Melodi /Pexels

The world is building more coal plants, but using less coal than before. That contradiction lies at the centre of a new report by Global Energy Monitor (GEM), an international organisation that tracks energy infrastructure and the global shift toward cleaner power.

According to GEM, whose databases and research are widely used by institutions including the IPCC, IEA, UNEP and the World Bank, countries are continuing to expand coal power infrastructure even as coal’s role in electricity generation weakens globally.

The latest edition of GEM’s Boom and Bust 2026 report found that global coal power capacity grew by 3.5% in 2025, while coal-fired electricity generation declined by 0.6%. The report describes the trend as a major structural shift in the global energy system, where coal remains politically important in several countries even as renewable energy increasingly replaces it in practice.

China and India Drive Coal Growth

The contradiction is most visible in China and India, the world’s two largest coal consumers. Both countries commissioned large amounts of new coal capacity in 2025, even as coal generation declined because of record additions in solar and wind power.

China expanded coal capacity by 6% in 2025, while coal-fired generation fell by 1.2%. India recorded a similar pattern, with coal capacity increasing by 3.8% even as coal generation dropped by 2.9%.

The report suggests that coal’s decline is becoming increasingly durable despite global energy uncertainties, including geopolitical tensions affecting fuel supply routes such as the Strait of Hormuz. Renewable energy expansion has continued rapidly enough to reduce coal’s role in meeting new electricity demand.

Christine Shearer, Project Manager of GEM’s Global Coal Plant Tracker, described the trend as a defining paradox of the global energy transition.

“In 2025, the world built more coal and used it less,” she said. She added that 95% of all coal plant construction is now concentrated in China and India, even as both countries expand renewable energy fast enough to displace coal generation.

China’s Coal Pipeline Continues to Surge

China remained the dominant force in global coal expansion during 2025. The country recorded a record 161.7 GW of new and revived coal projects, while more than 500 GW of coal-fired capacity is currently under development.

The report warned that if these projects move ahead, China could remain locked into years of additional coal use throughout its 15th Five-Year Plan period from 2026 to 2030, despite official commitments to reduce coal consumption during the same timeframe.

India Expands Coal While Renewables Accelerate

India is also continuing major coal expansion plans. The country recorded 27.9 GW of new and revived coal proposals in 2025. Overall, India now has more than 107 GW of coal capacity in pre-construction planning and another 23.5 GW already under construction.

The Indian government has announced plans to add 100 GW of new coal capacity over the next seven years, even as renewable energy growth continues at record pace. In 2025, non-fossil fuel sources crossed the milestone of accounting for more than half of India’s installed electricity capacity.

Coal Development Shrinks Outside Asia

Outside China and India, coal development is shrinking rapidly. Only 32 countries were proposing or building new coal plants in 2025, down from 38 countries the previous year and less than half the 75 countries pursuing coal expansion in 2014.

Coal construction activity outside China and India accounted for just 5% of global coal construction capacity in 2025, marking a record low and highlighting how geographically concentrated coal development has become.

Several regions also made notable progress away from coal. Latin America achieved “No New Coal” status in 2025, while South Korea committed to a complete coal phaseout.

Türkiye, which is preparing to host COP31, now has only one active coal plant proposal remaining, compared with more than 70 proposed projects in 2015.

Delayed Coal Retirements Raise Concerns

The report also found that retirement plans for existing coal plants are slowing in several regions. Nearly 70% of coal-fired units scheduled for retirement globally in 2025 failed to retire as planned.

In the European Union, many delays were linked to energy security concerns that emerged during the 2022–23 energy crisis. In the United States, several ageing coal plants remained operational because of direct government interventions aimed at maintaining grid reliability.

Indonesia continued expanding its coal fleet, which grew by 7% in 2025, largely driven by captive coal plants supporting nickel and aluminium processing industries.

South Asia and Southeast Asia Show Mixed Trends

Elsewhere in South Asia, Pakistan rapidly expanded distributed solar energy, helping stabilise its electricity system against volatile fossil fuel markets. Bangladesh, meanwhile, continues to face fuel supply and technical challenges linked to its fossil-fuel-based power sector.

Across Southeast Asia outside Indonesia, coal commissioning declined for the third consecutive year. However, disruptions in regional gas supplies during 2026 led some countries to rely more heavily on existing coal infrastructure as a temporary backup source.

In Africa, new coal proposals remain limited and are mainly concentrated in Zimbabwe and Zambia.

Renewable Energy Reshapes the Global Energy Transition

The report concludes that coal is no longer expanding as a universally accepted solution for rising electricity demand. Instead, coal development is increasingly concentrated in a small number of countries, even as renewable energy demonstrates its ability to meet growing demand more efficiently and sustainably.

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Society

India Built the Pipes. Now It Needs Better Water Data

JalSoochak is helping strengthen rural water delivery in India by turning paper-based records into real-time data for faster monitoring and response.

Rishika Nair

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Digital monitoring system used to improve rural water delivery under India’s Jal Jeevan Mission.
Jalsoochak is a platform designed to make frontline water delivery measurable, verifiable, and useful, all the way up the system. Image credit: By Special Arrangement

>> Rural water delivery in India has expanded rapidly under the Jal Jeevan Mission. But ensuring that water actually reaches homes every day now depends on better data, real-time monitoring, and systems like JalSoochak.

India built the pipes. Now comes the harder part.

Under the Jal Jeevan Mission (JJM), more than 1.5 crore rural households have been connected to piped water supply — a number that would have been unthinkable a decade ago. But connection is not the same as service. The pipe in the ground tells you nothing about whether water came out of the tap this morning, in what quantity, or whether the source feeding it is under stress.

That gap — between infrastructure built and service delivered — is where India’s rural water systems are now being tested. And it is a gap that turns, fundamentally, on data.

Why Rural Water Delivery Depends on Better Data

Pump operators and Jal Mitras are the ones who know. They manage supply cycles, monitor pumps, and record water delivery across thousands of villages every day. But in most states, those records live in paper registers. They cannot be verified, compared across districts, or acted on quickly. By the time a problem surfaces through the usual channels, it has often been festering for weeks. Engineers and administrators are left reconciling inconsistent figures instead of responding to the thing that actually went wrong.

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Arghyam, a Bengaluru-based philanthropic organisation founded by Rohini Nilekani, has been working on this problem. In partnership with Assam’s Public Health Engineering Department (PHED), it developed JalSoochak (Water indicator) — a platform designed to make frontline water delivery measurable, verifiable, and useful, all the way up the system.

How JalSoochak Is Transforming Rural Water Delivery

“Since the expansion of rural water infrastructure, understanding what is actually happening on the ground at scale has remained difficult. JalSoochak addresses this by enabling frontline workers to capture a simple image as evidence of water supply, while also giving Jal Mitras a verifiable record of their service delivery and attendance,” said Kailash Karthik, Secretary, Public Health Engineering Department, Government of Assam and Mission Director, Jal Jeevan Mission Assam.

The tool itself is straightforward. A frontline worker photographs a meter reading on their mobile phone. The image is processed using AI, the user verifies the reading, and it is logged as a daily record. What used to be a handwritten entry in a register — easily disputed, easily lost — becomes a time-stamped, verifiable data point that engineers, block-level officers, and state administrators can all see and act on.

JalSoochak platform supporting rural water delivery monitoring in Indian villages.
JalSoochak platform supporting rural water delivery monitoring in Indian villages. Image credit: By special arrangement

Accumulated over months, those daily records start to show things that no single entry would. A supply dip that recurs every fortnight. A pump whose readings are quietly declining. A source under pressure before anyone has formally flagged it. Problems get caught earlier, and the people responsible for fixing them have the evidence they need to act.

How Assam Is Digitising Rural Water Delivery

The numbers from Assam are substantial. More than 16,500 pump operators now use JalSoochak, collectively logging over 20 lakh readings. Together, those entries account for more than 37,600 million litres of water supply recorded.

Assam also made something else clear: what works in one state will not simply work everywhere. Each state has its own administrative logic, its own infrastructure, its own ways of capturing supply data. JalSoochak had to be rebuilt to absorb that variation rather than ignore it.

The platform now supports multiple modes of input — bulk flow meters, electric meter readings, pump operation duration, IoT devices, and manual entries. It works in local languages. Rather than running parallel to existing government systems, it is built to plug into them, so the data flows to where decisions are actually made, without creating extra work for anyone in the chain.

“JalSoochak is not just a technology platform. It is an attempt to strengthen service delivery to ensure that the investments made in rural water systems translate into reliable services for people. The journey from Assam to a national scale Digital Public Good has been about one core idea: making data useful for action, where it matters most,” said Deepak Gupta, Director of Digital Infrastructure and Government Partnerships, Arghyam.

JalSoochak is part of a broader effort to build a Digital Public Infrastructure for India’s water sector — a set of open, interoperable systems through which data can move across programmes and institutions, enabling governments to respond to problems where and when they actually occur, rather than when they finally show up in a report.

Crores of households now have a connection. The question that follows is simpler, and harder: is the water actually there? Getting a reliable answer to that question, consistently, across every village and every state, is what the next phase of rural water delivery will depend on.

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