The world is facing a more complex and fragile energy security landscape than ever before, according to the World Energy Outlook (WEO) 2025 released by the International Energy Agency (IEA) on Wednesday. The report calls for greater diversification of energy supplies and stronger international cooperation to navigate a period marked by overlapping risks across fuels, technologies, and supply chains.

The IEA notes that energy security tensions now span oil, gas, critical minerals, and electricity systems simultaneously — a situation without precedent in recent decades. “There is no other time when energy security tensions have applied to so many fuels and technologies at once,” said Fatih Birol, Executive Director of the IEA, in a statement. “Governments must show the same focus that they did after the 1973 oil shock.”

Emerging economies drive new demand

The WEO 2025 highlights a major shift in global energy demand patterns. India and Southeast Asia, along with countries in the Middle East, Africa, and Latin America, are emerging as the main drivers of future energy consumption. Collectively, these regions are expected to replace China — which accounted for 50% of oil and gas demand growth and 60% of electricity demand growth since 2010 — as the primary forces shaping global energy markets.

Data centres, AI surge push electricity demand

Electricity remains at the core of modern economies, with consumption projected to grow faster than total energy use across all scenarios. Investments in electricity generation have surged by nearly 70% since 2015, yet spending on power grids has increased at less than half that rate — creating potential bottlenecks.

The IEA notes that global electricity investment already equals half of total energy spending. Demand from data centres and artificial intelligence is now rising rapidly even in advanced economies. The report estimates that global data centre investment will reach USD 580 billion in 2025, surpassing the USD 540 billion being spent on oil supply — a striking indicator of how digitalisation is reshaping energy priorities.

Critical mineral dependency intensifies

The report warns of growing vulnerabilities in critical mineral supply chains, with one country dominating refining for 19 of 20 key strategic minerals, averaging a 70% global market share. These materials are crucial not only for clean energy technologies such as batteries and electric vehicles but also for defence, aerospace, and AI hardware.

Geographic concentration in refining has increased for nearly all major energy minerals since 2020, particularly for nickel and cobalt, making diversification a strategic priority for energy security.

Fossil fuel outlook and LNG expansion

The WEO 2025 finds ample global oil and gas supplies in the near term, with oil prices stabilising around USD 60–65 per barrel. A wave of liquefied natural gas (LNG) projects is also reshaping gas markets, with 300 billion cubic metres of new annual capacity expected by 2030 — a 50% increase over current levels. About half of this new capacity is being developed in the United States, and another 20% in Qatar.

Despite short-term supply stability, the IEA cautions that both oil and gas markets remain exposed to geopolitical shocks and volatile demand.

Climate goals off track

The report delivers a sobering message on global climate progress: no scenario keeps global warming below 1.5°C this century without drastic emissions cuts. While the pathway to net zero by 2050 could eventually bring temperatures back below that level, the world is already overshooting near-term targets.

About 730 million people still lack access to electricity, and two billion depend on unsafe cooking fuels. A new IEA scenario outlines universal electricity access by 2035 and clean cooking by 2040, driven largely by liquid petroleum gas (LPG) and renewable options.

A new era of electricity and resilience

The IEA describes the current moment as the “Age of Electricity,” where electric power underpins over 40% of global economic activity but still represents only 20% of final energy use. The report stresses that expanding grids, storage, and renewable capacity must accelerate to meet both climate and economic goals.

“Breakneck demand growth from data centres and AI is helping drive up electricity use in advanced economies,” said Dr Birol. “Those who say that ‘data is the new oil’ will note that investment in data infrastructure now exceeds spending on global oil supply — a striking example of the changing nature of modern economies.”

The numbers are stark, and the story they tell is even starker. More than 832,000 people have lost their lives and USD 4.5 trillion in direct economic losses have been recorded worldwide as a result of nearly 9,700 extreme weather events over the past three decades. That is the central finding of the Climate Risk Index (CRI) 2026, released by the environmental think tank Germanwatch at COP30 in Belém, Brazil.

The new report — the most comprehensive edition of the CRI to date — presents what its authors describe as a “mirror to global injustice”: a world where the poorest nations, least responsible for greenhouse gas emissions, continue to suffer the greatest losses.

Global South at the epicentre

According to the analysis, around 40% of the world’s population — more than three billion people — live in the eleven countries most affected by extreme weather events since 1995. These include India (ranked 9th), China (11th), Haiti (5th), and the Philippines (7th) — all nations of the Global South. None of these countries belong to the world’s richest economies, yet they bear the heaviest brunt of climate shocks.

“Heat waves and storms pose the greatest threat to human life when it comes to extreme weather events,” said Laura Schäfer, one of the index’s lead authors, in a statement. “Storms also caused by far the greatest monetary damage, while floods were responsible for the greatest number of people affected.”

In the 30-year period covered, storms alone caused over USD 2.64 trillion in damages, while floods accounted for nearly half of all people affected by disasters. Floods, storms, heat waves, and droughts together formed the deadly quartet responsible for most of the losses — both human and economic.

A decade of unrelenting disasters

From hurricanes that erased Caribbean islands to floods that swept away entire cities, the CRI 2026 paints a grim global mosaic.

At the top of the long-term index is Dominica, a tiny Caribbean island nation that has faced multiple catastrophic hurricanes. In 2017, Hurricane Maria alone caused losses amounting to three times the country’s GDP.

Myanmar ranks second, largely due to Cyclone Nargis (2008), which killed nearly 140,000 people and left deep scars still visible today. Honduras, Libya, Haiti, and Grenada follow, all of which endured either singularly devastating or repeated disasters.

The report notes that countries like Haiti, the Philippines, and India are trapped in cycles of destruction and recovery. “They are hit by floods, heat waves, or storms so regularly that entire regions can hardly recover from one disaster before the next strikes,” explained Vera Künzel, co-author of the index.

India among the top ten

India’s inclusion in the top ten highlights the scale and variety of climate hazards the country faces. Between 1995 and 2024, India endured over 430 major extreme weather events, resulting in more than 80,000 deaths, affecting 1.3 billion people, and inflicting USD 170 billion in damages (inflation-adjusted).

Recurring heat waves, increasingly intense monsoons, and devastating cyclones — from Odisha (1999) to Amphan (2020) — have made India one of the world’s most climate-vulnerable economies. Urban flooding in states like Maharashtra and Gujarat, and glacier-related floods in the Himalayas, have further underscored this fragility.

Even the rich are not spared

While the Global South remains most exposed, the new index shows that climate risks are no longer confined by wealth or borders. The United States (ranked 18th) and European nations such as France (12th) and Italy (16th) appear among the top 30 most affected countries — a reminder that the climate crisis has become universal.

“COP30 must find effective ways to close the global ambition gap”

The authors warn that no country is immune from the accelerating impacts of global warming. The year 2024 was the hottest on record, with global temperatures surpassing 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels for the first time. Scientists estimate that human-caused climate change added 41 extra days of dangerous heat for billions of people last year alone.

“The CRI 2026 results clearly demonstrate that COP30 must find effective ways to close the global ambition gap,” said David Eckstein, another co-author. “Global emissions have to be reduced immediately; otherwise, there is a risk of a rising number of deaths and economic disaster worldwide.”

A call for climate justice

The report urges the world’s wealthier nations to deliver on their long-standing promises of climate finance and loss-and-damage support for developing countries. Despite repeated commitments, funding for adaptation and disaster recovery remains far short of what vulnerable nations need.

Germanwatch estimates that developing countries may require up to USD 1.7 trillion annually by 2050 to address loss and damage caused by climate impacts. Without this support, the gap between rich and poor in climate resilience will only widen.

The CRI 2026 also points to positive developments — notably, a recent International Court of Justice advisory opinion affirming states’ legal duty to prevent and address climate harm, including through finance and reparations. The ruling, the authors note, adds legal and moral weight to the demands for urgent global action.

A warning — and a choice

Ultimately, the report is more than a statistical document; it is a warning. The patterns of destruction it reveals — from hurricanes in the Caribbean to heat waves in Asia — are not anomalies but signs of a “new normal.”

As COP30 negotiators gather in Belém, the message from the data is clear: unless emissions fall sharply and adaptation accelerates, the toll in both human lives and economic costs will keep rising.

“In a warmer world, tropical cyclones are becoming more intense and more destructive,” said Lina Adil, co-author of the index. “Without sustained global support, some nations will face challenges that are simply insurmountable.”

As the world converges on Belém for the 30th UN Climate Change Conference (COP30), the air is heavy not just with Amazonian humidity—but with expectation. Ten years after the Paris Agreement, the story of global climate action has entered a new chapter. One defined less by negotiation rooms and more by rooftops, communities, and citizens who have already begun to build the future politicians still debate.

A new statement released just a week before the summit, titled “Protect What We Love,” captures this shift. Signed by 75 leaders across politics, culture, and civil society—including Christiana Figueres, Ban Ki-Moon, Mary Robinson, Richard Branson, Stella McCartney, and Dia Mirza—the call to action urges governments to finally transform past commitments into tangible plans.

“You agreed to transition away from fossil fuels. You agreed to halt and reverse deforestation. You agreed to mobilize finance for adaptation and mitigation in developing countries,” the statement reminds world leaders. “At COP30, we ask you to show us how—through concrete plans and timelines—so that we can protect the people and places we love.”

This appeal comes amid fresh global polling data showing what the authors call “the 89%”—an overwhelming majority of citizens worldwide who want faster climate action. The findings, by the Potential Energy Coalition, reveal that eight in ten people across ten countries support government investment in wind, solar, and nuclear energy—double the number backing fossil fuels. And notably, that support transcends politics. Even conservatives, often framed as skeptics, are 1.6 times more likely to favour clean-energy investment than fossil fuel subsidies.

A Decade That Defied Predictions

That popular consensus coincides with new evidence of real progress. According to “Five Shifts: A Decade of Progress Since the Paris Agreement,” released in early November 2025, the world has made more headway in clean-energy deployment and policy integration than most experts dared to expect back in 2015.

In the decade since Paris, renewable energy jobs have nearly doubled to 16.2 million, and annual clean-energy investments reached $2.2 trillion—twice that of fossil fuels. Ninety percent of all new power capacity added globally in 2025 came from renewables. Solar costs have plummeted by 80% since 2014.

The transformation is not just environmental—it’s economic. “The fossil fuel industry knows that the new economy is rising,” said Christiana Figueres, one of the architects of the Paris Agreement. “They know that they can no longer compete. We are no longer in a world in which only climate politics has a leading role, but increasingly climate economics.”

That’s a profound shift in the centre of gravity. In 2015, climate action depended on international consensus. In 2025, it increasingly depends on investment logic.

From Pledges to Proof

Still, COP30 will test whether politics can keep pace with the real world. “It’s a different kind of COP than we’ve had before,” said Jennifer Morgan, Germany’s Special Envoy for International Climate Action. “It is one where there’s not one big fund or one big outcome. One really needs to be looking at the signals, the decisions, and the proof points to see how leaders and countries are accelerating implementation—because that’s what this is all about: going faster, going further, building on the success, learning the lessons of the lack of success.”

The Five Shifts report echoes that sentiment. Its authors warn that while clean energy is winning both economically and politically, emissions are not yet falling at the speed required. The UNEP Emissions Gap Report 2025, published days before the summit, estimates that even with full implementation of current national climate plans (NDCs), global warming would reach 2.3–2.5°C, and 2.8°C under existing policies.

$2.2 trillion in clean-energy investment in 2025 — twice fossil fuels

The world is already 1.35°C warmer, with extreme heat events multiplying by a factor of nine since 2015. Yet the same report highlights practical successes: half of all countries now have heat-warning systems, and 47 operate national heat action plans, saving lives in cities from Senegal to Japan.

For Bill Hare, CEO of Climate Analytics, the takeaway is simple: “The world can still return to well below 1.5°C if the highest possible ambition is pursued by countries starting now. Getting to net zero carbon dioxide emissions means that we can halt warming pretty quickly.”

Citizens Are the New Climate Majority

What distinguishes COP30 from the summits before it is not just scientific urgency—it’s civic clarity. As the Protect What We Love statement declares, “We are the 89%: the overwhelming majority of the global population who want you to act faster on climate change.”

That human dimension is front and centre. Leanne Brummell, representing Parents for Future Global, spoke for millions of families when she said:

“As parents, our first duty is to protect our children. The climate crisis is a direct threat to their safety and their future… We are part of the 89% of people globally who want to see their governments take more action to protect the places and people we love.”

The emotional urgency resonates far beyond activist circles. Dia Mirza, actor and UN advocate, said: “As a mother, I see the truth of today’s statement in my children’s eyes every day. People everywhere are rising to build, buy, and create the solutions that will keep our children safe. Public support for climate action is undeniable, and the technology and answers already exist. At COP30, I ask world leaders to act with the same instinct every parent has—to protect what we love most: our children and their future.”

This groundswell of public will is now being matched by business leadership. A new E3G poll found 97% of global executives backing a rapid transition to renewable-based electricity. Major corporations have joined the We Mean Business coalition, urging governments to create policies that reward decarbonization rather than delay it.

“Climate breakdown is no longer a distant risk for business—it’s already disrupting operations through extreme weather events such as floods and droughts,” said Fiona Duggan, Global Sustainability Manager at Unilever. “Forward-thinking companies are moving to adapt and decarbonise as rapidly as their sectors will allow. The real question is whether governments will support them to go further, faster.”

Constructive Pathways: What’s Working

A decade of experimentation has produced more success stories than cynics expected. Countries once seen as dependent on fossil fuels—Nigeria, Senegal, Brazil, Indonesia—are embedding climate action into fiscal and planning systems. Nigeria’s 2021 Climate Law supports a 2060 net-zero target; Senegal’s local experts now drive national adaptation plans; Brazil’s Finance Ministry leads an Ecological Transformation Plan linking fiscal reform with green growth.

According to Henri Waisman, Director of the DDP Initiative, “Countries have begun to reshape climate governance, embed long-term perspectives into policymaking, and accelerate technological change. This progress is significant. But the lesson of the past decade is equally clear: if we are to achieve the goals of Paris, the next decade must be about scaling up efforts, addressing social and industrial challenges, and ensuring that ambition is consistently translated into effective action.”

These local models, backed by citizens’ trust and economic dividends, suggest that climate action isn’t just a moral imperative—it’s a viable development strategy.

The Belém Moment

If there’s a unifying message emerging from Rio’s press releases to Belém’s plenary halls, it’s this: the transition has already begun.

Citizens, investors, and innovators are not waiting for permission. “Ordinary people understand that clean energy will improve their lives and have begun the transition their leaders keep promising,” said environmentalist Bill McKibben. “Rooftop by rooftop, community by community, they’re proving the future can arrive before the politics to govern it.”

COP30 thus becomes less about what to agree upon—and more about how fast to deliver what’s already agreed. The Five Shifts report puts it succinctly: “COP30 must move beyond pledges to concrete delivery: addressing the ambition gap in current NDCs, accelerating finance for adaptation, and ensuring just transitions away from fossil fuels. The decisions made in Belém will determine whether the 2030s become a decade of decisive implementation.”

From Political Will to Public Proof

Ten years ago, in Paris, climate ambition was an act of collective imagination. In Belém, it’s a lived reality, visible in data, rooftops, and balance sheets. The clean-energy revolution is no longer hypothetical—it’s happening.

The challenge now is whether governments will catch up with their citizens. Because, as the 89% have made clear, the mandate to act isn’t waiting for another conference. It’s already out there—building, investing, and protecting what we love.