The world is facing a more complex and fragile energy security landscape than ever before, according to the World Energy Outlook (WEO) 2025 released by the International Energy Agency (IEA) on Wednesday. The report calls for greater diversification of energy supplies and stronger international cooperation to navigate a period marked by overlapping risks across fuels, technologies, and supply chains.

The IEA notes that energy security tensions now span oil, gas, critical minerals, and electricity systems simultaneously — a situation without precedent in recent decades. “There is no other time when energy security tensions have applied to so many fuels and technologies at once,” said Fatih Birol, Executive Director of the IEA, in a statement. “Governments must show the same focus that they did after the 1973 oil shock.”

Emerging economies drive new demand

The WEO 2025 highlights a major shift in global energy demand patterns. India and Southeast Asia, along with countries in the Middle East, Africa, and Latin America, are emerging as the main drivers of future energy consumption. Collectively, these regions are expected to replace China — which accounted for 50% of oil and gas demand growth and 60% of electricity demand growth since 2010 — as the primary forces shaping global energy markets.

Data centres, AI surge push electricity demand

Electricity remains at the core of modern economies, with consumption projected to grow faster than total energy use across all scenarios. Investments in electricity generation have surged by nearly 70% since 2015, yet spending on power grids has increased at less than half that rate — creating potential bottlenecks.

The IEA notes that global electricity investment already equals half of total energy spending. Demand from data centres and artificial intelligence is now rising rapidly even in advanced economies. The report estimates that global data centre investment will reach USD 580 billion in 2025, surpassing the USD 540 billion being spent on oil supply — a striking indicator of how digitalisation is reshaping energy priorities.

Critical mineral dependency intensifies

The report warns of growing vulnerabilities in critical mineral supply chains, with one country dominating refining for 19 of 20 key strategic minerals, averaging a 70% global market share. These materials are crucial not only for clean energy technologies such as batteries and electric vehicles but also for defence, aerospace, and AI hardware.

Geographic concentration in refining has increased for nearly all major energy minerals since 2020, particularly for nickel and cobalt, making diversification a strategic priority for energy security.

Fossil fuel outlook and LNG expansion

The WEO 2025 finds ample global oil and gas supplies in the near term, with oil prices stabilising around USD 60–65 per barrel. A wave of liquefied natural gas (LNG) projects is also reshaping gas markets, with 300 billion cubic metres of new annual capacity expected by 2030 — a 50% increase over current levels. About half of this new capacity is being developed in the United States, and another 20% in Qatar.

Despite short-term supply stability, the IEA cautions that both oil and gas markets remain exposed to geopolitical shocks and volatile demand.

Climate goals off track

The report delivers a sobering message on global climate progress: no scenario keeps global warming below 1.5°C this century without drastic emissions cuts. While the pathway to net zero by 2050 could eventually bring temperatures back below that level, the world is already overshooting near-term targets.

About 730 million people still lack access to electricity, and two billion depend on unsafe cooking fuels. A new IEA scenario outlines universal electricity access by 2035 and clean cooking by 2040, driven largely by liquid petroleum gas (LPG) and renewable options.

A new era of electricity and resilience

The IEA describes the current moment as the “Age of Electricity,” where electric power underpins over 40% of global economic activity but still represents only 20% of final energy use. The report stresses that expanding grids, storage, and renewable capacity must accelerate to meet both climate and economic goals.

“Breakneck demand growth from data centres and AI is helping drive up electricity use in advanced economies,” said Dr Birol. “Those who say that ‘data is the new oil’ will note that investment in data infrastructure now exceeds spending on global oil supply — a striking example of the changing nature of modern economies.”

The numbers are stark, and the story they tell is even starker. More than 832,000 people have lost their lives and USD 4.5 trillion in direct economic losses have been recorded worldwide as a result of nearly 9,700 extreme weather events over the past three decades. That is the central finding of the Climate Risk Index (CRI) 2026, released by the environmental think tank Germanwatch at COP30 in Belém, Brazil.

The new report — the most comprehensive edition of the CRI to date — presents what its authors describe as a “mirror to global injustice”: a world where the poorest nations, least responsible for greenhouse gas emissions, continue to suffer the greatest losses.

Global South at the epicentre

According to the analysis, around 40% of the world’s population — more than three billion people — live in the eleven countries most affected by extreme weather events since 1995. These include India (ranked 9th), China (11th), Haiti (5th), and the Philippines (7th) — all nations of the Global South. None of these countries belong to the world’s richest economies, yet they bear the heaviest brunt of climate shocks.

“Heat waves and storms pose the greatest threat to human life when it comes to extreme weather events,” said Laura Schäfer, one of the index’s lead authors, in a statement. “Storms also caused by far the greatest monetary damage, while floods were responsible for the greatest number of people affected.”

In the 30-year period covered, storms alone caused over USD 2.64 trillion in damages, while floods accounted for nearly half of all people affected by disasters. Floods, storms, heat waves, and droughts together formed the deadly quartet responsible for most of the losses — both human and economic.

A decade of unrelenting disasters

From hurricanes that erased Caribbean islands to floods that swept away entire cities, the CRI 2026 paints a grim global mosaic.

At the top of the long-term index is Dominica, a tiny Caribbean island nation that has faced multiple catastrophic hurricanes. In 2017, Hurricane Maria alone caused losses amounting to three times the country’s GDP.

Myanmar ranks second, largely due to Cyclone Nargis (2008), which killed nearly 140,000 people and left deep scars still visible today. Honduras, Libya, Haiti, and Grenada follow, all of which endured either singularly devastating or repeated disasters.

The report notes that countries like Haiti, the Philippines, and India are trapped in cycles of destruction and recovery. “They are hit by floods, heat waves, or storms so regularly that entire regions can hardly recover from one disaster before the next strikes,” explained Vera Künzel, co-author of the index.

India among the top ten

India’s inclusion in the top ten highlights the scale and variety of climate hazards the country faces. Between 1995 and 2024, India endured over 430 major extreme weather events, resulting in more than 80,000 deaths, affecting 1.3 billion people, and inflicting USD 170 billion in damages (inflation-adjusted).

Recurring heat waves, increasingly intense monsoons, and devastating cyclones — from Odisha (1999) to Amphan (2020) — have made India one of the world’s most climate-vulnerable economies. Urban flooding in states like Maharashtra and Gujarat, and glacier-related floods in the Himalayas, have further underscored this fragility.

Even the rich are not spared

While the Global South remains most exposed, the new index shows that climate risks are no longer confined by wealth or borders. The United States (ranked 18th) and European nations such as France (12th) and Italy (16th) appear among the top 30 most affected countries — a reminder that the climate crisis has become universal.

“COP30 must find effective ways to close the global ambition gap”

The authors warn that no country is immune from the accelerating impacts of global warming. The year 2024 was the hottest on record, with global temperatures surpassing 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels for the first time. Scientists estimate that human-caused climate change added 41 extra days of dangerous heat for billions of people last year alone.

“The CRI 2026 results clearly demonstrate that COP30 must find effective ways to close the global ambition gap,” said David Eckstein, another co-author. “Global emissions have to be reduced immediately; otherwise, there is a risk of a rising number of deaths and economic disaster worldwide.”

A call for climate justice

The report urges the world’s wealthier nations to deliver on their long-standing promises of climate finance and loss-and-damage support for developing countries. Despite repeated commitments, funding for adaptation and disaster recovery remains far short of what vulnerable nations need.

Germanwatch estimates that developing countries may require up to USD 1.7 trillion annually by 2050 to address loss and damage caused by climate impacts. Without this support, the gap between rich and poor in climate resilience will only widen.

The CRI 2026 also points to positive developments — notably, a recent International Court of Justice advisory opinion affirming states’ legal duty to prevent and address climate harm, including through finance and reparations. The ruling, the authors note, adds legal and moral weight to the demands for urgent global action.

A warning — and a choice

Ultimately, the report is more than a statistical document; it is a warning. The patterns of destruction it reveals — from hurricanes in the Caribbean to heat waves in Asia — are not anomalies but signs of a “new normal.”

As COP30 negotiators gather in Belém, the message from the data is clear: unless emissions fall sharply and adaptation accelerates, the toll in both human lives and economic costs will keep rising.

“In a warmer world, tropical cyclones are becoming more intense and more destructive,” said Lina Adil, co-author of the index. “Without sustained global support, some nations will face challenges that are simply insurmountable.”

Brazil’s groEmissionsss greenhouse gas emissions fell from 2.576 billion tons of CO₂ equivalent in 2023 to 2.145 billion tons in 2024, the lowest drop since the country’s 17.2% decline in 2009. This turnaround was powered by enforcement against illegal deforestation, reversing a period of lax protections between 2019 and 2022. The net emissions figure—which deducts carbon absorbed by secondary forests and protected areas—dropped even further, down 22% year-on-year, landing at 1.489 billion tons in 2024.​

Sectoral Breakdown: Where Emissions Fell and Rose

The land-use sector, mostly deforestation, saw its gross emissions tumble from 1.341 to 0.906 billion tons (32.5% drop)—the largest reduction on record for any sector. This shifted the national emissions profile:

>> Land use change: 42% in 2024, compared to 52% in 2023

>> Agriculture: 29%, up from 24%

>> Energy: 20%, up from 16%

>> Waste: 5%

>> Industrial processes: 4% (both stable)

Emissions in agriculture and energy remained mostly flat, with only waste (up 3.6%) and industry (up 2.8%) recording notable increases.​

Deforestation Down, but Not the Whole Story

Enhanced government actions led to a 33% decline in Amazon deforestation emissions and a 41% drop in the Cerrado. Nevertheless, fires not associated with deforestation nearly doubled Brazil’s net deforestation emissions—an emerging risk as climate change fuels extreme drought and wildfires across formerly resilient biomes.​

Agriculture, Cattle, and Energy: Stubborn Sources

Brazil’s cattle sector remains the single largest emissions source, responsible for roughly 51% of national total. Efforts to control methane—including increased feedlot use and smaller herds—delivered a marginal 0.2% reduction in herd size and a slight drop in emissions. Nitrous oxide from fertilizers and lime also saw small declines, offsetting overall emission growth. Notably, emissions from energy rose nearly 1% due to record travel and electricity demand; only record ethanol and biodiesel consumption kept fossil CO₂ in check.​

Paris Pledge Still Out of Sight

Despite the historic emissions drop, Brazil is projected to end 2025 with net emissions of 1.44 billion tons—9% above its target under the Paris Agreement of 1.32 billion tons. While deforestation is falling, rising emissions from energy, agriculture, waste, and industry threaten to undermine overall climate progress. Experts emphasize that broader emission cuts, especially in fossil energy, are urgently needed for Brazil to have a chance at meeting its 2030 target (1.2 billion tons).​

Brazil’s 2024 emissions breakthrough underscores the pivotal impact of deforestation control on the country’s climate footprint. Yet, absent deeper reforms in agriculture, waste, and especially energy, Brazil’s Paris goals may remain out of reach—a clear signal for policymakers ahead of COP30.