As world leaders gather at COP30, a new analysis warns that most national climate pledges rely heavily on unrealistic levels of land-based carbon removal rather than cutting emissions by protecting existing forests and phasing out fossil fuels.

The Land Gap Report 2025, released by a consortium of international researchers led by the University of Melbourne, finds that countries would need to dedicate over one billion hectares of land — an area larger than Australia — to meet their climate targets through large-scale tree planting, forest restoration, and bioenergy projects. The study calls this gap between ambition and feasibility a “land gap.”

“Why are so many countries ignoring forest protection as a key pillar of climate targets?” asked Kate Dooley, lead author of the report. “Because they live in a world where debt burdens and industry-friendly tax and trade policies force them to exploit forests to keep their economies from crashing.”

Debt, Trade, and Tax Policies Driving Forest Loss

The report argues that climate inaction on forests is rooted not just in a lack of financing but in structural economic pressures that compel developing nations to rely on deforestation and resource extraction for revenue.

It identifies a “forest gap” — the difference between global pledges to halt deforestation by 2030 and the actual trajectory of current plans — warning that 4 million hectares of forest are projected to be cleared annually by 2030, with another 16 million hectares degraded, leaving a 20-million-hectare shortfall in forest protection.

According to the authors, the biggest barrier is a global economic system “that pits economic development against ecosystem preservation.”

“The biggest threat to forests today — and the carbon they hold — is a global economic system shaped by debt and financial flows that lock countries into reliance on logging, mining, and industrial-scale agriculture,” said Dr. Rebecca Ray of Boston University’s Global Development Policy Center.

Reform Pathways: Debt Relief, Tax Justice, and Trade Shifts

The report urges COP30 negotiators to confront the “triple threat” of debt, tax, and trade policies that undermine forest protection:

Debt relief: Many biodiversity-rich nations face debt repayments that push them to expand plantations and mining. In countries such as Cameroon, IMF austerity measures have accelerated deforestation for timber, cotton, and cocoa exports.

Tax reform: The study highlights cross-border tax abuse and illicit financial flows that deprive nations of revenue needed for conservation. It cites Brazil’s proposal for a global wealth tax that could raise $200–500 billion annually for sustainable development.

Trade reform: Current trade rules favor large commodity traders and industrial agriculture — the single largest driver of deforestation. The authors call for trade regimes that prioritize sustainable food systems and smallholder farmers.

Financing Forests at Scale

While innovative mechanisms such as the Tropical Forest Forever Facility (TFFF) aim to generate up to $4 billion annually for forest protection, the report estimates that meeting 2030 forest goals would require $117–299 billion per year.

“Reform will be difficult, but there are already efforts underway to disrupt the status quo that could lead to healthier economies, forests, and communities,” said Kate Horner, co-lead author of the report. “The consequences of failure — the continued destruction of the world’s remaining forests — should be motivation enough to act.”

The Land Gap Report 2025 updates the 2022 analysis and evaluates national pledges submitted to the UN under the Paris Agreement. It examines nationally determined contributions (NDCs) and long-term climate strategies through October 2025. Less than 40% of parties have submitted updated NDCs since COP28.

The world is facing a more complex and fragile energy security landscape than ever before, according to the World Energy Outlook (WEO) 2025 released by the International Energy Agency (IEA) on Wednesday. The report calls for greater diversification of energy supplies and stronger international cooperation to navigate a period marked by overlapping risks across fuels, technologies, and supply chains.

The IEA notes that energy security tensions now span oil, gas, critical minerals, and electricity systems simultaneously — a situation without precedent in recent decades. “There is no other time when energy security tensions have applied to so many fuels and technologies at once,” said Fatih Birol, Executive Director of the IEA, in a statement. “Governments must show the same focus that they did after the 1973 oil shock.”

Emerging economies drive new demand

The WEO 2025 highlights a major shift in global energy demand patterns. India and Southeast Asia, along with countries in the Middle East, Africa, and Latin America, are emerging as the main drivers of future energy consumption. Collectively, these regions are expected to replace China — which accounted for 50% of oil and gas demand growth and 60% of electricity demand growth since 2010 — as the primary forces shaping global energy markets.

Data centres, AI surge push electricity demand

Electricity remains at the core of modern economies, with consumption projected to grow faster than total energy use across all scenarios. Investments in electricity generation have surged by nearly 70% since 2015, yet spending on power grids has increased at less than half that rate — creating potential bottlenecks.

The IEA notes that global electricity investment already equals half of total energy spending. Demand from data centres and artificial intelligence is now rising rapidly even in advanced economies. The report estimates that global data centre investment will reach USD 580 billion in 2025, surpassing the USD 540 billion being spent on oil supply — a striking indicator of how digitalisation is reshaping energy priorities.

Critical mineral dependency intensifies

The report warns of growing vulnerabilities in critical mineral supply chains, with one country dominating refining for 19 of 20 key strategic minerals, averaging a 70% global market share. These materials are crucial not only for clean energy technologies such as batteries and electric vehicles but also for defence, aerospace, and AI hardware.

Geographic concentration in refining has increased for nearly all major energy minerals since 2020, particularly for nickel and cobalt, making diversification a strategic priority for energy security.

Fossil fuel outlook and LNG expansion

The WEO 2025 finds ample global oil and gas supplies in the near term, with oil prices stabilising around USD 60–65 per barrel. A wave of liquefied natural gas (LNG) projects is also reshaping gas markets, with 300 billion cubic metres of new annual capacity expected by 2030 — a 50% increase over current levels. About half of this new capacity is being developed in the United States, and another 20% in Qatar.

Despite short-term supply stability, the IEA cautions that both oil and gas markets remain exposed to geopolitical shocks and volatile demand.

Climate goals off track

The report delivers a sobering message on global climate progress: no scenario keeps global warming below 1.5°C this century without drastic emissions cuts. While the pathway to net zero by 2050 could eventually bring temperatures back below that level, the world is already overshooting near-term targets.

About 730 million people still lack access to electricity, and two billion depend on unsafe cooking fuels. A new IEA scenario outlines universal electricity access by 2035 and clean cooking by 2040, driven largely by liquid petroleum gas (LPG) and renewable options.

A new era of electricity and resilience

The IEA describes the current moment as the “Age of Electricity,” where electric power underpins over 40% of global economic activity but still represents only 20% of final energy use. The report stresses that expanding grids, storage, and renewable capacity must accelerate to meet both climate and economic goals.

“Breakneck demand growth from data centres and AI is helping drive up electricity use in advanced economies,” said Dr Birol. “Those who say that ‘data is the new oil’ will note that investment in data infrastructure now exceeds spending on global oil supply — a striking example of the changing nature of modern economies.”

The numbers are stark, and the story they tell is even starker. More than 832,000 people have lost their lives and USD 4.5 trillion in direct economic losses have been recorded worldwide as a result of nearly 9,700 extreme weather events over the past three decades. That is the central finding of the Climate Risk Index (CRI) 2026, released by the environmental think tank Germanwatch at COP30 in Belém, Brazil.

The new report — the most comprehensive edition of the CRI to date — presents what its authors describe as a “mirror to global injustice”: a world where the poorest nations, least responsible for greenhouse gas emissions, continue to suffer the greatest losses.

Global South at the epicentre

According to the analysis, around 40% of the world’s population — more than three billion people — live in the eleven countries most affected by extreme weather events since 1995. These include India (ranked 9th), China (11th), Haiti (5th), and the Philippines (7th) — all nations of the Global South. None of these countries belong to the world’s richest economies, yet they bear the heaviest brunt of climate shocks.

“Heat waves and storms pose the greatest threat to human life when it comes to extreme weather events,” said Laura Schäfer, one of the index’s lead authors, in a statement. “Storms also caused by far the greatest monetary damage, while floods were responsible for the greatest number of people affected.”

In the 30-year period covered, storms alone caused over USD 2.64 trillion in damages, while floods accounted for nearly half of all people affected by disasters. Floods, storms, heat waves, and droughts together formed the deadly quartet responsible for most of the losses — both human and economic.

A decade of unrelenting disasters

From hurricanes that erased Caribbean islands to floods that swept away entire cities, the CRI 2026 paints a grim global mosaic.

At the top of the long-term index is Dominica, a tiny Caribbean island nation that has faced multiple catastrophic hurricanes. In 2017, Hurricane Maria alone caused losses amounting to three times the country’s GDP.

Myanmar ranks second, largely due to Cyclone Nargis (2008), which killed nearly 140,000 people and left deep scars still visible today. Honduras, Libya, Haiti, and Grenada follow, all of which endured either singularly devastating or repeated disasters.

The report notes that countries like Haiti, the Philippines, and India are trapped in cycles of destruction and recovery. “They are hit by floods, heat waves, or storms so regularly that entire regions can hardly recover from one disaster before the next strikes,” explained Vera Künzel, co-author of the index.

India among the top ten

India’s inclusion in the top ten highlights the scale and variety of climate hazards the country faces. Between 1995 and 2024, India endured over 430 major extreme weather events, resulting in more than 80,000 deaths, affecting 1.3 billion people, and inflicting USD 170 billion in damages (inflation-adjusted).

Recurring heat waves, increasingly intense monsoons, and devastating cyclones — from Odisha (1999) to Amphan (2020) — have made India one of the world’s most climate-vulnerable economies. Urban flooding in states like Maharashtra and Gujarat, and glacier-related floods in the Himalayas, have further underscored this fragility.

Even the rich are not spared

While the Global South remains most exposed, the new index shows that climate risks are no longer confined by wealth or borders. The United States (ranked 18th) and European nations such as France (12th) and Italy (16th) appear among the top 30 most affected countries — a reminder that the climate crisis has become universal.

“COP30 must find effective ways to close the global ambition gap”

The authors warn that no country is immune from the accelerating impacts of global warming. The year 2024 was the hottest on record, with global temperatures surpassing 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels for the first time. Scientists estimate that human-caused climate change added 41 extra days of dangerous heat for billions of people last year alone.

“The CRI 2026 results clearly demonstrate that COP30 must find effective ways to close the global ambition gap,” said David Eckstein, another co-author. “Global emissions have to be reduced immediately; otherwise, there is a risk of a rising number of deaths and economic disaster worldwide.”

A call for climate justice

The report urges the world’s wealthier nations to deliver on their long-standing promises of climate finance and loss-and-damage support for developing countries. Despite repeated commitments, funding for adaptation and disaster recovery remains far short of what vulnerable nations need.

Germanwatch estimates that developing countries may require up to USD 1.7 trillion annually by 2050 to address loss and damage caused by climate impacts. Without this support, the gap between rich and poor in climate resilience will only widen.

The CRI 2026 also points to positive developments — notably, a recent International Court of Justice advisory opinion affirming states’ legal duty to prevent and address climate harm, including through finance and reparations. The ruling, the authors note, adds legal and moral weight to the demands for urgent global action.

A warning — and a choice

Ultimately, the report is more than a statistical document; it is a warning. The patterns of destruction it reveals — from hurricanes in the Caribbean to heat waves in Asia — are not anomalies but signs of a “new normal.”

As COP30 negotiators gather in Belém, the message from the data is clear: unless emissions fall sharply and adaptation accelerates, the toll in both human lives and economic costs will keep rising.

“In a warmer world, tropical cyclones are becoming more intense and more destructive,” said Lina Adil, co-author of the index. “Without sustained global support, some nations will face challenges that are simply insurmountable.”