India’s non-fossil power capacity is set to reach 70% by 2035-36, driven by rapid solar expansion, but grid constraints, storage gaps and utilisation challenges could shape the energy transition.

India is preparing for one of the most dramatic transformations in its energy sector, with the Central Electricity Authority outlining a future where clean energy dominates installed capacity but fossil fuels continue to underpin supply reliability.

The National Generation Adequacy Plan (2026-27 to 2035-36) presents the most detailed roadmap yet of how India’s electricity system will evolve over the next decade. It projects that India’s installed power capacity will reach 1,121 GW by 2035-36, with 70% (786 GW) coming from non-fossil sources, signalling a structural shift in the country’s energy mix.

At the same time, the report highlights a more complex reality: capacity expansion alone will not define the transition—utilisation, storage, and grid readiness will.

India Power Capacity 2035-36 to Cross 1,100 GW

India’s electricity system is expected to nearly double in scale over the next decade.

According to the report, net electricity generation is projected to rise from around 1,725 billion units today to 3,450 billion units by 2035-36, reflecting the country’s rapid economic growth and electrification push.

Solar energy is set to emerge as the dominant force in India’s power mix. Installed solar capacity alone is expected to exceed 500 GW, accounting for nearly 45% of total capacity, making it the single largest contributor to India’s energy basket.

The detailed breakdown of projected capacity includes:

• 315 GW coal
• 509 GW solar
• 155 GW wind
• 78 GW large hydro
• 20 GW gas
• 22 GW nuclear

These figures underline a system where renewables dominate capacity, but conventional sources remain critical to stability.

India Power Capacity 2035-36 vs Actual Generation Gap

One of the most important insights from the report is the divergence between installed capacity and actual electricity generation.

Despite renewables making up 70% of capacity, coal is expected to remain the backbone of electricity supply. The report projects coal will still account for 51% of total electricity generation (1,819 BU), while solar will contribute around 27% (984 BU).

This gap reflects the intermittent nature of renewable energy and the continued need for firm, dispatchable power.

As the report notes, “the source of firm power at present is predominantly coal-based generation.”

This highlights a key transition challenge: while India can rapidly build renewable capacity, replacing coal’s role in ensuring round-the-clock supply will require deeper systemic changes.

India Power Capacity 2035-36 Faces Grid Bottlenecks

While India’s renewable expansion has been rapid, the system’s ability to absorb this capacity remains constrained.

A major concern flagged in the analysis is the issue of stranded renewable capacity—power that is generated but cannot be transmitted due to grid limitations.

Vibhuti Garg, Director South Asia at the Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis, said: “It is encouraging to see the national generation adequacy plan taking shape. India has made remarkable progress in expanding renewable energy capacity, with clean sources now accounting for more than 50% of installed capacity.

However, the real test lies not in capacity addition, but in how effectively this generation is utilised. Currently, over 37 GW of renewable energy capacity remains stranded—highlighting gaps in planning, integration, and grid readiness.

This underscores the urgent need to shift focus from merely adding capacity to ensuring efficient evacuation and utilisation. Strengthening transmission infrastructure and aligning it with demand centres is critical. As supply and demand increasingly diverge geographically, coordinated planning becomes essential.”

The report also notes that renewable energy generation is becoming more geographically dispersed, increasing the need for robust transmission networks to connect generation hubs with consumption centres.

India Power Capacity 2035-36 Needs Massive Storage Push

Energy storage emerges as the single most critical enabler of India’s clean energy transition.

The plan estimates that India will require 174 GW / 888 GWh of energy storage capacity by 2035-36, including battery storage and pumped hydro.

However, the current pipeline is far from sufficient:

• Only 10.6 GW of battery storage is under construction
• Additional capacity remains in tendering or early planning stages

This gap between projected need and current deployment highlights a major financing and policy challenge.

The report also emphasises that solar-plus-storage systems are emerging as an alternative, particularly for meeting peak demand during non-solar hours, but are yet to fully replace coal-based baseload generation.

India Power Capacity 2035-36 and Energy Security

The timing of the plan is significant, coming amid global energy market disruptions and geopolitical tensions.

Vibhuti Garg noted:“At a time when India remains exposed to global fuel supply disruptions due to geopolitical tensions, accelerating renewable energy integration is not just a climate imperative—it is an economic and energy security necessity.”

The report positions renewable energy not just as a climate solution, but as a strategic tool for reducing dependence on imported fuels.

EVs and Data Centres as New Demand Drivers

The plan also identifies electric vehicles and data centres as emerging sources of electricity demand.

These loads are expected to be geographically concentrated, requiring careful coordination between energy supply and demand planning.

Vibhuti Garg added: “This challenge will intensify with the rise of new demand drivers such as electric vehicles and data centres. These loads are often geographically concentrated, making it even more important to strategically plan clean energy supply in tandem with demand clusters.”

India’s power sector is entering a defining decade.

The National Generation Adequacy Plan makes it clear that the country is on track to build one of the world’s largest clean energy systems. But it also underscores that capacity alone is not enough.

The real transition will depend on:

• Grid infrastructure
• Energy storage deployment
• Demand-side planning
• Policy alignment with emerging technologies

As the report emphasises, the goal is not just to expand capacity, but to ensure a reliable, resilient, and cost-effective power system capable of meeting India’s rapidly growing electricity demand.

When tensions rise around Iran, the world braces for oil shocks. Markets react, governments worry, and the Strait of Hormuz once again becomes the centre of global attention.

But in 2025, something quietly shifted beneath this familiar cycle of crisis.

Electric vehicles avoided oil consumption equivalent to nearly 70% of Iran’s exports.

According to analysis by Ember, the global EV fleet reduced oil demand by 1.7 million barrels per day, approaching the 2.4 million barrels per day exported by Iran through the Strait of Hormuz.

This is not just a milestone for clean energy. It marks the beginning of a structural change in how the world responds to geopolitical risk.

The world’s oil vulnerability is still profound

Despite rapid technological progress, the global economy remains deeply exposed to oil shocks.

Nearly 79% of the world’s population lives in oil-importing countries, making them vulnerable to disruptions in supply and price volatility.

The costs are enormous. For every $10 increase in oil prices, global import bills rise by around $160 billion annually.

At the heart of this vulnerability lies the Middle East—and specifically the Strait of Hormuz. This narrow passage carries around one-fifth of global oil exports, while the wider Gulf region accounts for 29% of global oil supply.

The concentration of supply through such a fragile corridor makes the global economy acutely sensitive to regional instability.

“This is Asia’s Ukraine moment,” said Daan Walter, principal at Ember. “Oil is the Achilles’ heel of the global economy… Asia’s oil vulnerability has been exposed by the current crisis.”

Even oil producers cannot escape the shock

One of the most counterintuitive realities of today’s energy system is that producing oil domestically does not shield economies from global price spikes.

Oil is traded in global markets. When supply is disrupted, prices rise everywhere.

In Texas, one of the world’s largest oil-producing regions, gasoline prices increased by more than 25% following recent geopolitical tensions—in some cases exceeding rises seen in oil-importing countries.

This reflects a fundamental truth: oil dependency is a global vulnerability, not a local one.

The true cost of fossil fuel dependence

The financial burden of this dependency is immense.

Net importing countries spent approximately $1.7 trillion on fossil fuel imports in 2024, with many economies losing significant portions of GDP to energy imports.

For developing economies, the impact is even more severe. Rising prices can strain public finances, disrupt industries, and increase the cost of living.

The report highlights a stark dynamic: when supply tightens, wealthier countries can outbid poorer ones, effectively pushing them out of the market.

Energy insecurity, in this sense, is not just an economic issue—it is a question of global inequality.

EVs are emerging as a geopolitical force

Against this backdrop, the rise of electric vehicles is beginning to alter the equation.

The fact that EVs avoided oil demand equivalent to 70% of Iran’s exports is not just symbolic—it is strategic.

It shows that demand-side transformation can counterbalance supply-side risk.

“Electric vehicles are increasingly cost-competitive with gasoline cars,” Walter said. “Oil volatility means EVs are a common-sense choice for countries wishing to insulate themselves from future shocks.”

The economic benefits are already visible:

• China saves over $28 billion annually in avoided oil imports
• Europe saves around $8 billion
• India saves about $0.6 billion

These savings highlight a critical shift: energy security is moving from controlling supply to reducing dependence.

A broader shift: the rise of “electrotech”

Electric vehicles are only one part of a wider transformation described in the report as “electrotech”—a combination of EVs, solar, wind, batteries, and heat pumps.

Together, these technologies can electrify more than three-quarters of global energy demand and significantly reduce fossil fuel imports.

If deployed at scale, they could cut import dependence by up to 70%, fundamentally reshaping global energy systems.

Unlike fossil fuels, which require continuous imports, these technologies provide long-term stability. Once installed, they operate without fuel costs, price volatility, or geopolitical exposure.

As the report puts it, this is the difference between “renting energy” and “owning it.”

The Strait of Hormuz: from chokepoint to turning point

The current crisis highlights the strategic importance of the Strait of Hormuz—but it may also accelerate its decline as a central pillar of global energy security.

Asia, which imports around 40% of its oil through the strait, is particularly exposed.

But unlike previous crises, countries now have viable alternatives.

Renewable energy costs have fallen sharply. EV adoption is accelerating across both developed and emerging markets. And electrification technologies are scaling faster than expected.

The report suggests this could become a defining moment—similar to how Europe’s response to the Ukraine crisis reshaped its energy strategy.

Peak oil may arrive sooner than expected

The implications extend beyond immediate crisis management.

The International Energy Agency had projected global oil demand would peak around 2029. But recent developments suggest that peak may arrive sooner.

Electrification is not only reducing demand—it is changing expectations about the future of energy.

The report notes that demand growth forecasts have already been revised downward, with the possibility that global oil demand could plateau—or even decline—earlier than anticipated.

Crises, historically, have accelerated structural transitions. This may be another such moment.

A structural shift beneath the headlines

Geopolitical tensions may dominate headlines, but the deeper story lies beneath.

The fossil fuel system—dependent on continuous trade through vulnerable chokepoints—is becoming increasingly fragile. At the same time, the technologies needed to replace it are becoming cheaper, faster, and more accessible.

The fact that EVs alone have already offset oil demand equivalent to most of Iran’s exports signals a profound shift.

It suggests that the balance of power in global energy is beginning to move—from regions that supply oil to technologies that reduce the need for it.

The Strait of Hormuz may remain a critical artery for now. But its grip on the global economy is loosening.

And for the first time in decades, the world has a credible path to reduce its dependence on it.

Fertiliser dependency has come under sharp global scrutiny as tensions around the Strait of Hormuz highlight how geopolitical disruptions can ripple through food systems, raising concerns over food security and farm resilience.

The Strait of Hormuz, a critical chokepoint for global energy supplies, plays a central role in fertiliser production due to its link to fossil fuel exports. Any disruption threatens to push up fertiliser costs—directly impacting agricultural production worldwide, according to an analysis by Zero Carbon Analytics (ZCA).

How Fertiliser Dependency Shapes Global Food Systems

Experts warn that modern agriculture’s heavy reliance on fossil fuel-based fertilisers has created a fragile system vulnerable to geopolitical shocks.

“This vulnerability is a choice, and one that we all pay for,” says Raj Patel, economist and food systems expert at the University of Texas. “Nearly 90 percent of the $540 billion in annual agricultural support goes to the same chemical-intensive production that depends on them. We didn’t stumble into this dependency. We funded it.”

The reliance is deeply embedded in global subsidies and production models, making rapid transitions difficult but increasingly necessary.

Farmers Face Rising Costs Amid Hormuz Tensions

Farmers across Asia are already feeling the pressure of rising fertiliser prices as geopolitical tensions escalate.

“With fertiliser prices rising—and the planting season soon to begin—Asia’s farmers are once again being forced to choose between rising costs and falling yields,” says Shamika Mone, President of the Inter-Continental Network of Organic Farmer Organisations.

She adds that consumers are also likely to face further food price hikes, underlining the broader socio-economic impact.

A Fragile System Under Stress

The current crisis is being described as more than just a supply issue—it is a structural problem in global agriculture.

“What we are seeing is not just a fertiliser and commodity crisis, it is a stress test to a fragile food system that is not designed to be resilient,” says Belén Citoler of the World Rural Forum.

The disruption has exposed how interconnected energy markets and food systems have become, with shocks in one quickly cascading into the other.

Agroecology and Organic Farming as Alternatives

Across continents, experts and farmers are calling for a shift toward more resilient agricultural practices that reduce fertiliser dependency.

“The conflict in Iran highlights the vulnerability of an agriculture system that is overly reliant on fossil fuel fertilisers,” says Oliver Oliveros of the Agroecology Coalition.

He points to growing efforts by countries such as Brazil, Kenya, and Vietnam to support agroecological practices that use natural fertilisers and nitrogen-fixing plants.

Farmers themselves are also adapting.

“Geopolitical conflicts… show how vulnerable our agricultural system has become,” says German farmer Olivier Jung, who has been experimenting with crop diversity and reduced external inputs to build resilience.

Similarly, Brazilian farmer Thales Bevilacqua Mendonça warns that global supply chains are increasingly unstable, urging a shift toward ecological farming practices.

Policy Shift Seen as Key to Reducing Fertiliser Dependency

Experts argue that reducing fertiliser dependency will require systemic policy changes, particularly in how agricultural subsidies are allocated.

“To speed up the transition, we need to redirect billions in agriculture subsidies… and invest in approaches that safeguard farmers and consumers from energy price volatility and climate shocks,” Oliveros adds.

Organic farming advocates also stress that proven alternatives already exist.

“If we really want to take food security seriously, policymakers must support the most resilient models… organic farming must become a pillar,” says French farmer Olivier Chaloche.

A Turning Point for Global Food Security?

The Strait of Hormuz disruption may prove to be a wake-up call for governments worldwide.

As fertiliser dependency becomes increasingly tied to geopolitical instability, the push toward agroecology, organic farming, and resilient food systems is gaining urgency.

The question now is whether policymakers will act fast enough to transform a system many experts say is no longer sustainable.