Climate
Super El Niño Can’t Explain Mumbai’s Deluge, But Climate Change Can
Climate change is intensifying Mumbai’s rainfall, making downpours shorter and more extreme. Experts explain why El Niño alone cannot explain the floods.
Mumbai Climate Change Rainfall: Mumbai’s recent deluge reflects a changing monsoon shaped by climate change as much as El Niño. Experts say warming oceans and a hotter atmosphere are driving fewer rainy days but far more intense downpours, exposing the city’s ageing drainage systems and growing vulnerability to urban flooding.
For most of June, the story of India’s monsoon was one of delay and deficit. A strengthening El Niño in the Pacific was pushing the Southwest Monsoon back, and by the end of the month the country was staring at a 40 percent rainfall shortfall. Then, within days, the sky flipped. As the monsoon shifted into an active phase, Mumbai and the rest of India’s west coast were hit by rain so intense that the national deficit collapsed from 40 percent to 20 percent in less than a week, as of July 6.
The whiplash has revived a debate among climate scientists that goes beyond this one season: it is no longer only about how much rain a city gets, but how that rain arrives.
A new briefing from Climate Trends lays out the case that a warmer atmosphere and rapidly heating oceans are loading the air with more moisture than before, which means fewer rainy days overall but far more violent bursts when the rain does come. El Niño, in this reading, still controls the timing and broad strength of the monsoon — but climate change is increasingly writing its character, turning downpours shorter, sharper, and more likely to overwhelm drains built for a gentler era.
Mumbai Climate Change Rainfall Intensifies Monsoon Extremes
Mumbai’s own numbers make the point. In the first seven days of July alone, the city saw four separate spells of triple-digit rainfall. The Colaba observatory logged 791 mm between July 1 and 7 — more than its entire climatological average for the whole month of 768.5 mm. Santa Cruz recorded 879 mm in the same window, brushing up against its monthly normal of 919.9 mm.
Mahesh Palawat, Vice President of Meteorology and Climate Change at Skymet Weather, pointed to a pile-up of weather systems as the immediate trigger. “Monsoon is presently in an active phase, with several weather systems prevailing across the country,” he said, noting a depression over Odisha and a cyclonic circulation over Maharashtra keeping both arms of the monsoon active, while continuous moisture from the Arabian Sea kept regenerating cloud cover over the state.
Dr Raghu Murtugudde, Emeritus Professor at the University of Maryland and a retired professor at IIT-Bombay, went further, arguing that the two forces driving this monsoon can no longer be pulled apart. “El Niño just cannot be separated from global warming anymore,” he said, describing how both the Arabian Sea and the Bay of Bengal were firing at once, feeding moisture into the core monsoon zone that eventually rides the Western Ghats and dumps over Mumbai.
Rewriting the Monsoon’s Rulebook
Palawat said the shift is structural, not a one-off. Weather systems that form in the Bay of Bengal, he explained, have started tracking west instead of northwest, while the Arabian Sea’s record warming has added extra moisture to the mix, keeping clouds regenerating for days on end wherever a weather system parks itself.
Dr K J Ramesh, former Director General of the India Meteorological Department, framed it as a break from the monsoon India used to know. “We know that the character of the monsoon has changed forever due to global warming,” he said. “Rains will be in the form of short duration and high intensity, whether there is an El Niño or no El Niño.” He pointed to Rajasthan, Gujarat and West Madhya Pradesh, where Western Disturbances alone can no longer explain the volume of rain now falling — an added moisture feed from the Arabian Sea, he said, has changed the pattern across the region.
Research cited in the briefing backs this up on a larger scale: the Middle East has been warming almost twice as fast as the rest of the inhabited world, and that heating has been linked to nearly half — 46 percent — of the intensified rainfall over Northwest India and Pakistan between 1979 and 2022, by pushing moisture northward out of the Arabian Sea.
The Long-term Drift
Zoom out from any single storm and the trend holds. Comparing 1981–2000 with 2001–2024, average monsoon rainfall has climbed by nearly 15 percent in Mumbai and 23 percent in Pune, according to data from the Council on Energy, Environment and Water (CEEW).

Looking ahead, a separate report — Indian Coastal Region: Climate Projections 2021–2040 — suggests suburban Mumbai and parts of coastal Maharashtra and Gujarat should expect almost an additional week of heavy rain during the Southwest Monsoon in the coming years, alongside a projected 18 percent rise in the region’s already-massive 1,749 mm monsoon baseline. The same projections point to rising temperatures across the board, including a 1.3°C increase in both summer wet-bulb and winter minimum temperatures.
When Rain meets a City That isn’t Ready
Climate change, though, is only half the story of why Mumbai floods. The briefing frames urban flooding as a climate-plus-exposure problem — extreme rainfall colliding with a city whose drains, floodplains and green cover haven’t kept pace.
Ramesh was blunt about what that means on the ground. “It is no longer a matter of warnings anymore as substantial warnings have been issued well in time. It is now a preparedness and response issue,” he said, calling for full desilting of drains ahead of every monsoon and blaming unchecked concretisation for leaving trees with no room for their roots to breathe.
Dr Vishwas Chitale, a Fellow at CEEW, described the immediate toll of the past week’s rain — an orange alert in Mumbai and a red alert in Pune, both signalling rainfall heavy enough to disrupt daily life. He pointed to early warning systems and structured flood-resilience plans, like the one CEEW helped develop with the Thane Municipal Corporation, as the kind of groundwork cities now need. “We need to come out with some practical solutions on the ground to be able to manage urban flooding better,” he said.
Aarti Khosla, Director of Climate Trends, put the challenge in starker terms: extreme rainfall is no longer a possibility to plan around but a near-certainty to plan for. “The question is no longer whether extreme rainfall events will occur, but whether our cities are prepared to withstand them,” she said, calling for climate-resilient drainage, nature-based flood defences and urban planning that treats risk as a starting assumption rather than an afterthought.
The briefing’s broader point is a simple one: urban flooding happens when saturated drainage meets any of several triggers — torrential rain, storm surge, sea-level rise, groundwater seepage, or simply a city with too little permeable ground left to absorb water. Global warming is intensifying the rainfall trigger, and dense, paved-over cities are amplifying what happens next.
As one line from the briefing puts it, cities designed for yesterday’s climate are struggling to cope with today’s extremes — and, if the projections hold, tomorrow’s will demand even more.
Climate
Western Ghats ESA: Centre Reissues Draft for 7th Time Amid Standoff
The Centre has reissued the Western Ghats ESA draft for the seventh time, with the proposed 56,825.7 sq. km area unchanged. The move highlights the long-running standoff with six States over ecological protection, development and the boundaries of the proposed ESA.
The Centre has reissued its draft notification proposing an Ecologically Sensitive Area (ESA) across the Western Ghats for the seventh time in more than a decade, as differences with the six Western Ghats States over the boundaries of the proposed zone remain unresolved.
The Union Environment Ministry issued the fresh draft on July 27, 2026, after the previous draft lapsed on the same day without being finalised. The new notification will remain open for public objections and suggestions for 60 days before the Centre considers issuing a final notification.
The proposed ESA covers 56,825.7 sq. km across Gujarat, Maharashtra, Goa, Karnataka, Kerala and Tamil Nadu. However, there are no substantive changes in the proposed area, State-wise extent or regulatory provisions compared with the draft issued in July 2024.
The latest reissue therefore highlights the central problem that has kept the proposal unresolved for years: the Centre and the States have yet to agree on which villages and areas should be brought under ecological protection.
What Will the ESA Restrict?
If finalised, the notification would prohibit mining, quarrying and sand mining, along with new thermal power plants, certain industries and large construction projects within the proposed ESA. Activities such as hydropower generation would be regulated.
The restrictions have been a major concern for the six States, which have raised questions about their implications for agriculture, plantations, infrastructure and development.
The notification states that an expert committee constituted in 2022 is continuing to examine objections raised by State governments, including concerns over “the correct names and area of villages to be included in the ecologically sensitive area”.
The disagreement is therefore not over whether the Western Ghats are ecologically important, but largely over where protection should apply and what activities should be permitted within those areas.
Why the Western Ghats Matter
The Western Ghats stretch along India’s western coast and are recognised as one of the world’s important biodiversity hotspots. Geologically, they are among the oldest mountain systems in the world, formed during the breakup of the ancient supercontinent Gondwana, and are estimated to be around 150–200 million years old, far older than the Himalayas. This long evolutionary history has contributed to their exceptionally high levels of endemism, supporting a rich concentration of plant and animal species found nowhere else.
The mountain range also plays a crucial role in regulating the region’s water systems. Several major rivers originate in or are fed by the Western Ghats, making the landscape important for drinking water, agriculture and livelihoods across peninsular India.
The ecological significance also intersects with growing concerns over environmental degradation and disaster vulnerability. Parts of the Western Ghats have experienced recurring floods, landslides and extreme rainfall events, particularly during intense monsoon spells.

This makes land-use decisions in ecologically fragile mountain landscapes increasingly significant. The ESA proposal is intended to restrict activities that can cause environmental degradation, but States and local communities have repeatedly raised concerns about how such restrictions would affect people living and working in these areas.
Kerala’s Proposed ESA Remains Unchanged
Kerala accounts for 9,993.7 sq. km of the proposed ESA. The figure is lower than the 13,108 sq. km recommended for Kerala by the high-level working group headed by K. Kasturirangan. Kerala subsequently conducted its own field verification exercise, following which the proposed ESA area within the State was reduced.
In Wayanad, the latest draft retains the 13 villages across Mananthavady, Sulthan Bathery and Vythiri taluks that were included in the previous draft.
Karnataka has the largest proposed ESA area, followed by Maharashtra and Kerala.
A Dispute Dating Back to 2011
The debate over protection of the Western Ghats dates back to 2011, when the Western Ghats Ecology Expert Panel headed by ecologist Madhav Gadgil recommended treating the entire 1.29 lakh sq. km mountain chain as ecologically sensitive, with different levels of protection.
The recommendation faced opposition from the States over concerns that extensive environmental restrictions could affect development and livelihoods.
The Centre subsequently appointed a high-level working group headed by K. Kasturirangan to review the proposal. The group recommended designating about 37% of the Western Ghats, covering 59,940 sq. km of natural landscape, as an ESA.
Kerala later carried out its own field verification, reducing the proposed area in the State from 13,108 sq. km to 9,993.7 sq. km.
Since then, the proposal has gone through multiple rounds of consultations, revisions and draft notifications. Yet, more than a decade later, the Centre and the six States have not reached an agreement on the precise boundaries.
The latest notification is therefore less a revision of the government’s proposal than another attempt to move forward with a process that has remained unresolved for years.
The Centre has now opened another 60-day window for objections and suggestions. The outcome will determine whether the latest draft can finally move towards a final notification or whether the Western Ghats ESA proposal will enter another round of consultations.
Climate
Assam Floods: Nagaland Rain, Swollen Rivers Drive Flooding
Assam’s flood situation has worsened, with 75 deaths and more than 3.3 lakh people affected across seven districts. Heavy rainfall in Nagaland triggered a rapid rise in Assam’s tributaries, while high Brahmaputra levels worsened the flooding across Upper Assam.
For families across Upper Assam, the latest flood has brought homes surrounded by water, crops submerged and livestock moved to safer ground. Seven people drowned in Sivasagar on Tuesday, taking Assam’s flood death toll to 75. As of July 28, 3,32,639 people across 622 villages had been affected and 45,342 hectares of crop area submerged, according to the Assam State Disaster Management Authority (ASDMA).
The worst-hit districts of Assam’s flood are Sivasagar, Charaideo, Golaghat, Jorhat, Nagaon, Sonitpur and Kamrup Metropolitan. Charaideo has the highest number of affected people, followed by Sivasagar and Jorhat.
For families dependent on farming, however, the crisis will continue after the water recedes. A destroyed crop can mean a lost season’s income; damaged livestock, homes and farmland can make recovery harder.
Nearly 40% of Assam is Flood-Prone
Assam’s flood is not unusual. The state’s Water Resources Department estimates that 31.05 lakh hectares, or 39.58% of Assam’s total area, is flood-prone—nearly four times the national proportion of about 10.2%.
A 2026 study on Assam’s flood vulnerability in the Brahmaputra Valley also uses the figure to illustrate the Assam’s flood exposure. But exposure alone does not determine the damage. Household income, dependence on agriculture, housing, access to services and the ability to recover all shape how severely families are affected.
Heavy Rain Upstream Triggered the Latest Surge
The immediate trigger for the current flooding was heavy rainfall in neighbouring Nagaland and parts of Assam. Rain in Nagaland’s hill districts generated rapid runoff into Assam’s river system, raising tributaries including the Dikhow, Disang and Dhansiri. The already high Brahmaputra added to the problem by restricting how quickly these tributaries could drain into the main river.
The Assam Water Resources Department notes that flooding can become particularly severe when tributaries rise at the same time as the Brahmaputra.
So, the current crisis is not simply a case of the Brahmaputra overflowing. Heavy upstream rainfall triggered the surge; swollen tributaries carried the water into Upper Assam, while high Brahmaputra levels worsened drainage.
For farmers, the Losses Outlast the Flood
The 45,342 hectares of submerged cropland represent immediate agricultural losses. For farmers, those losses can mean months without income and fewer resources to prepare for the next season.

Floods can also kill livestock, damage homes and equipment, deposit sand on fields and accelerate riverbank erosion. When farmland itself disappears, recovery becomes even harder.
Assam’s Flood: Relief Measures Taken
As of July 28, 81 relief camps were sheltering more than 32,000 displaced people, while relief distribution centres were operating across affected areas.
The state government has announced ₹9 lakh for each family that lost a member, including ₹4 lakh in ex-gratia assistance and ₹5 lakh from the Chief Minister’s Relief Fund. More than one lakh severely affected families will receive ₹15,000, while students in the worst-hit districts will receive book grants.
The assistance can help families meet immediate needs. But compensation cannot prevent another flood from causing similar losses.
What Can Reduce the Damage?
Since Assam cannot control heavy rainfall in neighbouring states, better preparation upstream and faster action downstream are critical. Real-time monitoring of rainfall and river levels in Nagaland and other upstream catchments can provide earlier warnings. Those warnings must reach villages quickly, with clear instructions on evacuation routes and safe shelters.
Flood-prone communities also need safer housing, accessible evacuation centres and infrastructure designed around local flood levels. Protecting livelihoods through crop insurance, livestock support, emergency credit and flood-tolerant farming can reduce the financial shock.
Flood management also needs to follow the river system rather than administrative boundaries. Rainfall in an upstream catchment can quickly affect communities hundreds of kilometres downstream.
The Losses That Remain.
Assam’s flood follows multiple flood waves in 2025, with the last recorded wave continuing into October. That matters because households may still be recovering from one flood when another arrives. A lost crop, dead livestock or eroded farmland can leave a family with fewer resources to face the next season. With 39.58% of Assam’s land already classified as flood-prone, the challenge is not simply getting people through this year’s flood. It is reducing the losses that families carry from one flood season to the next.
Climate
Monsoon Intensifies Across 10 States as IMD Issues Heavy Rain Alert
The southwest monsoon is set to intensify across India as a Bay of Bengal depression strengthens, prompting heavy rain alerts for more than 10 states. With many regions already affected by floods and landslides, the fresh spell of rainfall could worsen flooding, disrupt daily life and increase disaster risks.
The southwest monsoon is set to intensify across large parts of India over the next few days as a depression over the northwest Bay of Bengal strengthens, prompting the India Meteorological Department (IMD) to issue heavy rainfall alerts for more than 10 states.
The weather system is expected to bring heavy to extremely heavy rainfall across eastern, central, western and northern India, increasing the risk of floods, landslides and waterlogging. The fresh spell of rain comes at a time when several states are already dealing with the impacts of an active monsoon, making them more vulnerable to further weather-related disasters.
Bay of Bengal Depression to Strengthen Monsoon
According to the IMD, a low-pressure area over the northwest Bay of Bengal and adjoining Odisha–West Bengal coast is likely to intensify into a depression before moving west-northwest across Odisha, Chhattisgarh and central India.
A depression is a well-organised low-pressure weather system that forms over warm ocean waters. During the southwest monsoon, the Bay of Bengal is the primary region where these systems develop. As they move inland, they transport large amounts of moisture from the sea, producing widespread rainfall over several states. Although weaker than cyclones, monsoon depressions are among the most important drivers of India’s seasonal rainfall.
The IMD has forecast isolated extremely heavy rainfall over Odisha and Chhattisgarh, while heavy to very heavy rainfall is expected across parts of Madhya Pradesh, Maharashtra, Gujarat, Rajasthan, Uttar Pradesh, Uttarakhand, Himachal Pradesh, Gangetic West Bengal, Konkan and Goa. Widespread rainfall is also likely across the northeastern states, including Assam, Meghalaya, Arunachal Pradesh, Nagaland, Manipur, Mizoram and Tripura.
Fresh Rain Could Worsen Existing Floods
The latest depression arrives after several weeks of intense monsoon activity across the country. States such as Himachal Pradesh and Uttarakhand have witnessed recurring landslides and flash floods, while Assam has experienced repeated flooding as the Brahmaputra and its tributaries swelled following continuous rainfall. Parts of Gujarat, Maharashtra and central India have also reported flooding and waterlogging after successive spells of heavy rain.
Meteorologists say the concern is not only the amount of rain expected but also where it will fall. Much of the landscape in these regions has already become saturated, reducing its ability to absorb additional rainfall.
When soil reaches its storage capacity, fresh rainfall flows directly into streams and rivers instead of soaking into the ground. This increases surface runoff, causing rivers to rise more rapidly and raising the risk of flash floods and urban flooding. In hilly regions, continuous rainfall also weakens slopes, making landslides more likely.
Growth of Climate Challenge
Scientists increasingly describe situations like these as compound weather events, where one weather event amplifies the impact of another. A fresh spell of heavy rain falling over flood-affected areas can prolong flooding, delay recovery and increase damage to homes, roads and public infrastructure.

Climate change is expected to make these risks more pronounced. According to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), the atmosphere can hold about 7% more moisture for every 1°C rise in temperature, increasing the potential for intense rainfall during monsoon weather systems. Studies by the India Meteorological Department and the Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology have also reported an increase in short-duration extreme rainfall events across parts of India over recent decades.
Authorities Urge Vigilance
The IMD has advised residents in flood- and landslide-prone areas to closely monitor weather updates and follow local advisories. Fishermen have been warned against venturing into the Bay of Bengal and adjoining parts of the Arabian Sea due to rough sea conditions.
State disaster management agencies are also monitoring river levels, reservoir inflows and vulnerable districts as the depression moves inland.
While the active monsoon is expected to replenish reservoirs and support the ongoing kharif cropping season, the latest depression highlights the growing challenge of managing consecutive extreme rainfall events. For communities already affected by floods and landslides, the coming days will test the resilience of infrastructure, disaster response systems and local preparedness as another round of heavy rain sweeps across the country.
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