As Japan expands its role as a global gas trader, a new analysis raises questions about whether Asia is importing energy security—or future climate liabilities. Japan US LNG trade generated lifecycle emissions equal to about 17 coal plants in a year, raising concerns about Asia’s growing dependence on imported gas.

The liquefied natural gas (LNG) cargoes that Japan resold across Asia over the past five years generated greenhouse gas emissions equivalent to running about 17 coal-fired power plants for a year, according to a new analysis by Zero Carbon Analytics.

The finding comes at a time when several Asian economies are turning to LNG as a bridge fuel in their energy transition strategies, while governments simultaneously pledge to cut emissions and expand renewable energy.

According to the analysis, Japan resold 16.5 billion kilograms of US-produced LNG to nine Asian countries between 2020 and 2025. Across the fuel’s lifecycle—from extraction and liquefaction in the United States to shipping, regasification and combustion in Asia—those sales generated an estimated 63.5 billion kilograms of carbon dioxide emissions.

The report highlights a little-discussed aspect of Asia’s gas trade: Japan is increasingly acting as a middleman in the global LNG market.

Japan’s US LNG Trade–Japan Now Resells More US LNG Than It Uses

Japan remains one of the world’s largest LNG importers, but its domestic demand for gas has been declining.

The analysis found that between 2021 and 2025, Japan sold 77 percent more US LNG to other countries than it imported for its own domestic consumption.

In 2024, Japan ranked as the world’s second-largest LNG trader. While Europe remained the largest destination for Japanese LNG resales, nearly one-third of those transactions were directed to Asian markets, including South Korea, China, India, Taiwan, Thailand, Singapore, Bangladesh, Pakistan and Malaysia.

Three of Japan’s top ten LNG resale destinations were Asian economies: South Korea, China and India.

The numbers reflect a broader shift in regional energy markets. Countries seeking alternatives to coal have increasingly turned to LNG, often presenting gas as a cleaner transition fuel. Yet critics argue that this framing overlooks emissions generated throughout the fuel supply chain.

The Methane Problem

Natural gas is composed primarily of methane, a greenhouse gas that has far greater warming potential than carbon dioxide in the short term.

According to the International Energy Agency’s 2026 Global Methane Tracker, methane emissions from fossil fuel operations remain near record levels globally.

The Zero Carbon Analytics analysis estimates that roughly 30 percent of total LNG lifecycle emissions arise from methane released during extraction, processing and transportation.

Methane can trap around 80 times more heat than carbon dioxide during the first two decades after it enters the atmosphere, making leakage a critical concern for climate scientists.

The report’s emissions calculations include every stage of the LNG supply chain rather than focusing solely on combustion emissions at power plants.

Energy Security or Fossil Fuel Lock-In?

The findings arrive amid renewed concerns over energy security following instability in the Middle East and uncertainty surrounding global gas supplies.

Several Asian economies, including Thailand, Vietnam and the Philippines, have expanded LNG imports in recent years to diversify their energy systems. However, the same dependence has exposed them to volatile international fuel prices.

Yu Sun Chin, Asia Regional Researcher at Zero Carbon Analytics, said the growing trade has implications beyond emissions.

“Japan’s growing role as an LNG trader has significant implications for Asia, which is absorbing close to a third of Japan’s excess supplies. Our calculations of the full lifecycle emissions of these LNG resales highlight the risk they pose to a region already vulnerable to extreme weather and other climate impacts. Rather than increasing reliance on gas as a ‘transition fuel’, transitioning to renewables offers Asia a clearer route to a clean and secure energy future.”

The concern is not merely about current emissions. Energy analysts warn that investments in LNG terminals, pipelines and related infrastructure could lock countries into fossil fuel consumption for decades.

Sam Reynolds, LNG and Gas Research Lead for Asia at the Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis (IEEFA), noted that Japanese companies are increasingly looking abroad as domestic demand declines.

“As Japan’s own LNG demand continues to decline, Japanese companies are becoming increasingly active traders of the fuel to other countries. At the same time, public and private financiers in Japan are investing in downstream infrastructure to stimulate demand and secure long-term customers.”

He added that such investments could leave emerging economies dependent on “a volatile, expensive fuel source for decades” while delaying renewable energy deployment.

Asia’s Climate Challenge

Asia is simultaneously one of the world’s fastest-growing energy markets and one of the regions most vulnerable to climate impacts.

From deadly heatwaves in South Asia to flooding in China and stronger tropical cyclones across Southeast Asia, the region is already experiencing the consequences of rising temperatures.

Climate scientists estimate that global emissions must nearly halve within this decade to keep the Paris Agreement’s 1.5°C goal within reach.

Against that backdrop, environmental groups argue that expanding LNG infrastructure risks undermining climate commitments.

Shruti Shukla, Senior Advocate for International Energy at the Natural Resources Defense Council (NRDC), said the region faces a strategic choice.

“Japan has long positioned itself as a regional energy and economic leader in Asia. That leadership should help accelerate a resilient clean energy transition across the region, not deepen dependence on another generation of imported fossil fuels.”

She warned that growing LNG imports expose countries to methane emissions, volatile fuel markets and costly infrastructure that could become obsolete as renewable technologies become cheaper.

The Economic Risks

The debate extends beyond climate concerns.

Researchers increasingly point to the possibility that LNG infrastructure built today may become stranded assets before the end of its expected lifespan.

Nawaphat Junkrajang, senior researcher at Climate Finance Network Thailand, cited research suggesting that nearly half of Thailand’s operating and proposed LNG terminal capacity could become economically unviable under the country’s climate commitments.

“Each additional resale cargo is not energy security. It is one more step into a lock-in the transition will eventually have to unwind,” he said.

Bangladesh faces similar concerns.

Dr Khondaker Golam Moazzem, Research Director at the Centre for Policy Dialogue, said new energy agreements and infrastructure investments could deepen dependence on imported LNG while narrowing opportunities for renewable energy investment.

A Growing Regional Debate

The analysis arrives as governments across Asia reassess their energy pathways.

Supporters of LNG argue that gas provides reliable electricity generation and can complement intermittent renewable sources. Critics counter that falling costs of solar, wind and battery storage are weakening the economic rationale for large-scale LNG expansion.

What is clear from the data is that Japan’s role in regional gas markets is evolving rapidly. The country is no longer simply a major LNG consumer; it has become a significant intermediary connecting US gas producers with Asian buyers.

As Asia balances energy security, affordability and climate goals, that role is likely to attract increasing scrutiny.

For policymakers, the question may no longer be whether LNG emits less carbon than coal at the point of combustion. Instead, it is whether a region racing to build a low-carbon future can afford to lock itself into another generation of fossil fuel infrastructure.

Climate change and the 2026 FIFA World Cup are on a collision course, with new research suggesting that rising temperatures could affect player performance, match intensity and fan safety in nearly every game of football’s biggest tournament.

When football fans tune in to the 2026 FIFA World Cup on June 11, they will be watching more than a battle between the world’s best teams. They may also be witnessing a new reality for global sport: a tournament increasingly shaped by climate change.

A new analysis by Climate Central suggests that rising global temperatures are making it more likely that players will compete in conditions known to affect performance during much of the tournament. The findings raise questions not only about athlete safety but also about how the game itself may evolve in a warming world.

The 2026 FIFA World Cup, scheduled from June 11 to July 19, 2026, will be the largest in the tournament’s history, featuring 48 teams and 104 matches across venues in the United States, Canada and Mexico. But according to Climate Central’s analysis, 97 of those 104 matches now face a higher likelihood of experiencing temperatures above 28°C, a threshold associated with reduced football performance.

Researchers found that nearly half the matches have at least a 50 per cent chance of being played in conditions that can impair performance. In several cases, climate change has increased those odds substantially. One of the most affected fixtures is the June 26 match between Uruguay and Spain in Guadalajara, where the probability of performance-affecting heat has increased by 37 percentage points because of climate change.

Climate Change and the 2026 FIFA World Cup Could Alter the Game

For decades, discussions about climate change and sport focused primarily on scheduling disruptions, extreme weather events or damaged infrastructure. The new analysis points to something more fundamental: the possibility that rising temperatures may influence what happens on the pitch itself.

Research cited by Climate Central shows that temperatures above 28°C can reduce sprint frequency, decrease the total distance players cover and slow recovery times. In a sport where margins are often measured in seconds and centimetres, even small declines in physical performance can influence tactics, intensity and match outcomes.

Professor Mike Tipton of the University of Portsmouth’s Extreme Environments Laboratory said the effects of heat extend beyond discomfort.

“Playing in temperatures above 28°C changes the game – affecting tactics, tempo and overall quality. We see reduced intensity, less sprinting and potentially fewer chances being created. As temperatures climb further, the risks also increase. Prolonged exposure and dehydration can lead to heat exhaustion or even heat stroke, particularly in high-stakes matches where players are more likely to push beyond their natural limits.”

The implications are not limited to players. Slower matches, altered tactics and more frequent cooling breaks could affect the experience for millions of spectators in stadiums and billions watching worldwide.

Climate Change and the 2026 FIFA World Cup Raise New Safety Questions

Concerns about heat are becoming increasingly common across international sport.

Athletes competing in marathons, tennis tournaments and Olympic events have already faced extreme temperatures in recent years. Football, despite its global popularity, is not immune.

Norwegian international Morten Thorsby, who is expected to play at the 2026 World Cup, argues that the conversation can no longer focus solely on performance.

“This analysis makes clear that rising temperatures are not only a serious health risk for players and fans, but they are also starting to affect the quality of the game itself. When heat impacts sprinting, recovery, and overall intensity, it changes the way football is played – and not for the better,” he said.

“That’s exactly why I signed the players’ letter to FIFA last week. We need to take these risks seriously and ensure that the game we love is protected, both for those on the pitch and everyone watching around the world.”

The analysis arrives as sports governing bodies face increasing pressure to adapt competitions to a changing climate. Possible responses include scheduling more matches during cooler periods of the day, increasing player protection measures and reconsidering host venue requirements.

The Future of Football in a Warming World

Climate scientists argue that what is happening to football mirrors broader changes taking place across society.

Shel Winkley, a meteorologist at Climate Central, said climate change is already reshaping many of the traditions people associate with sport.

“The World Cups of the past won’t happen again — not because the players have changed, but because the planet has. Heatwaves, unpredictable weather, and shifting seasons are rewriting the rules of the games we love,” Winkley said.

“Athletes are forced to play more cautiously, strategize differently, and abandon the risks that once made sport thrilling. Unless we stop burning fossil fuels, the future of competition won’t be about who plays best — it’ll be about who can tolerate the heat.”

For football fans, the warning is striking. Climate change is often discussed through statistics, emissions targets and policy debates. The 2026 World Cup offers a more visible illustration of its impact.

If the analysis proves accurate, the world’s biggest sporting event may become a reminder that climate change is no longer a distant environmental issue. It is increasingly becoming a factor that shapes how people work, travel, compete and even play the games they love.

Global temperature record levels are likely to be challenged again before the end of this decade, according to a new World Meteorological Organization forecast. Scientists say there is a high chance that one of the next five years will become the warmest ever recorded, as rising greenhouse gas emissions and a possible El Niño event continue to push the planet toward new climate extremes.

The world is heading into another stretch of exceptional heat, with a strong chance that a new global temperature record will be set before the end of the decade.

According to a new assessment from the World Meteorological Organization (WMO), global temperatures are expected to remain at or near record levels between 2026 and 2030, extending a warming trend that has already pushed climate indicators into uncharted territory.

The report paints a picture of a planet that continues to warm despite international efforts to curb greenhouse gas emissions. While the Paris Agreement aims to limit long-term warming to 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels, scientists now estimate there is a 91% chance that at least one of the next five years will temporarily cross that threshold.

Global Temperature Record Could Be Broken Again by 2030

Even more striking, there is a 75% chance that the average temperature across the entire five-year period from 2026 to 2030 will exceed 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels.

The findings do not mean the Paris Agreement has officially failed. The agreement’s temperature targets are measured over decades rather than individual years. Still, climate scientists view the growing frequency of these temporary breaches as a sign of how rapidly the planet is approaching those long-term limits.

The report projects annual global temperatures during 2026–2030 to range between 1.3°C and 1.9°C above the 1850–1900 average. There is also an 86% chance that one of those years will surpass 2024, currently the warmest year ever recorded.

One factor behind the forecast is the likely return of El Niño conditions in the tropical Pacific Ocean.

2027 Could Become the Next Global Temperature Record Year

Dr. Leon Hermanson, lead author of the report, said: “There is an El Niño predicted for the end of 2026, which increases the chances of the following year, 2027, being the next record-breaking year.”

El Niño events typically raise global temperatures by releasing additional heat from the Pacific Ocean into the atmosphere. When combined with the long-term warming caused by greenhouse gas emissions, they can push global temperatures to new highs.

Global Temperature Record Highlights Faster Arctic Warming

While rising temperatures affect every region, the Arctic continues to stand out.

The WMO forecasts that Arctic temperatures during the next five northern hemisphere winters will average about 2.8°C above the 1991–2020 baseline. That is more than three times the projected global average anomaly over the same period.

Scientists have long observed that the Arctic is warming faster than the rest of the world, a phenomenon known as Arctic amplification. The consequences include shrinking sea ice, thawing permafrost and disruptions to weather patterns far beyond the polar region.

The report also points to continued declines in sea ice across parts of the Arctic, particularly in the Barents Sea, Bering Sea and the Sea of Okhotsk.

A Wetter North, A Drier South

The warming climate is also reshaping rainfall patterns.

According to the forecast, northern high-latitude regions are likely to experience wetter-than-average winters over the next five years. Increased rainfall is also expected across parts of the tropics.

At the same time, many subtropical regions are projected to become drier. The Amazon is among the areas where below-average rainfall is considered more likely during the coming years.

Seasonal forecasts for 2026–2030 suggest wetter conditions in the Sahel region of Africa, northern Europe, Alaska and Siberia. Such shifts are consistent with what climate scientists have long expected in a warming world, where a warmer atmosphere holds more moisture and alters long-established rainfall patterns.

Beyond Records

The report is not simply about whether another temperature record will be broken.

For governments, businesses and communities, the findings serve as a reminder that climate change is increasingly shaping everyday realities—from agriculture and water supplies to infrastructure, health and disaster preparedness.

The assessment was produced by the UK Met Office on behalf of the WMO and draws on forecasts from 13 international climate centres. Scientists say confidence in the temperature projections is high because similar forecasting systems have performed well when tested against past climate conditions.

If the projections prove accurate, the second half of this decade could become a defining period in the world’s climate story—not because warming suddenly accelerates, but because the consequences of a steadily warming planet become harder to ignore.