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SpaceX prepares for the Great Filter – but why?

What’s Elon Musk’s gameplan to get humans to thrive in the universe all about?

Karthik Vinod

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Credit: Spongy101010 / Wikimedia

Two weeks ago, Ed Publica did a news story on Elon Musk’s tweet.

It sure was a headline topic in itself. 

“We are mapping out a game plan to get a million people to Mars,” posted Musk. “Civilization only passes the single-planet Great Filter when Mars can survive even if Earth supply ships stop coming.”

Press releases that came in the wake of the tweet, never did engage with Musk’s invocation of – the Great Filter. 

The Great Filter is what the astronomer Seth Shostak stated, a ‘variant on the Fermi paradox’.

The Fermi paradox was borne out of an idea proposed by the enigmatic 20th century theoretical physicist, Enrico Fermi, who posed a profound, philosophical question. 

If an intelligent civilization were capable of space travel, and extraterrestrial life existed, then where are they? 

In fact, the question itself was a paradoxical idea. Either of course, aliens don’t exist – or if they do, then they’re hiding in plain sight, not wanting to be contacted. Perhaps in the latter case, aliens want to avoid being colonized or wiped extinct by a civilization with superior technology. No one knows what the answer is. We don’t know yet if it even is a paradox with an answer. 

But the Great Filter theory, proposed by an economist, Robin Hanson in 1998 makes an interesting argument that offers a possible resolution against the Fermi paradox. Maybe life is uncommon, or can easily go extinct. There can be some factors at play to stop a civilization from thriving and spawn a population to safeguard it. 

Maybe humanity’s destined to live, and then die on earth – only to live on Mars, until every resource exhausts and human genes are ferried to distant exoplanets to hopefully spawn and recreate humanity there. Or perhaps humanity’s alone amongst the trillions of stars in the universe, because someone has to make the first step to show how difficult it is for life to thrive. 

Credit: Greg Rakozy / Unsplash

How feasible is this?

Musk’s prophetic vision is more his vision for humanity – reminiscent in science fiction novels and films.

There’s a line from the movie Interstellar (2014), when Michael Caine, playing an astrophysicist, says, ‘We’re not meant to save the world, we’re meant to leave it.’ In the movie, earth gets plagued by crop blight, and people starve to death when food resources are hard to sustain. Although the problem was foreseeable, we were too late to act on it. And that was the main driver of the plot. Astronauts were dispatched into a wormhole and tunnel through into a different galaxy light years away. Humanity was doomed, and so the astronauts prepared  human embryos to take our place and be the Adam and Eves of their species.

Musk’s idea to colonize Mars makes some sense in that it’s about taking a small step to demonstrate we can demonstrate a necessary first step of survival.

But then space is cruel and indifferent. The Martian atmosphere is completely thin, with almost zero atmospheric pressure. It’s not even about the carbon dioxide in what’s left in that atmosphere – there’s just barely any atmosphere there. Musk probably is aware of this, given he has a physics background! 

For instance, how do we pressurize a whole planet? The optimism is that technology can circumvent these problems. 

This technology, possibly in a few decades, can seem like ‘magic’ to us. The Great Filter and the Fermi paradox are at best a useful thinking exercise about the myriad ways human imagination really works. 

And until we demonstrate basic physics that works in its favor, aren’t these just wishful fantasies? 

For instance, how can SpaceX ‘gameplan’ Mars’ colonization, if the company doesn’t itself survive the Great Filter test?  Who else in the world is taking this seriously apart from Elon Musk? 

‘Colonizing’ space

Musk’s gameplan invites more questions, since there’s barely any discussion that he leads on it.

Musk is polarizing to his critics, who question the need for expensive space exploration programs that have no direct benefit on our economy.

Musk’s usage of the term ‘colonization’ can be seen to resonate with the sentiment in the 15th century when the West discovered the rest of the world through the sea-route. However, it didn’t fare well for the rest of the world. One notable example is when Christopher Columbus, ‘discovered’ North America, when he was in search of India – he and his men began the subjugation of Native Americans

An 1850 painting depicting Christopher Columbus (center) surrounded by people, before embarking a ship in August 1492. Credit: Wellcome Trust

Meanwhile, the Portuguese voyager Vasco da Gama arrived at the shores of India, in Kozhikode. That opened up routes for vessels of the East India Company from across Europe to trade – and then colonize Indians

I’m not suggesting Musk has nefarious plans at play. However, what’s the chance that future government policies somehow get blindsided, or ignorant of advice from experts outside science on the political implications of space exploration? 

And what better ‘gameplan’ can there really be if it starts with experts from a diversity of fields huddling together for an enlightening discussion? 

Karthik is a science writer, and co-founder of Ed Publica. He writes and edits the science page. He's also a freelance journalist, with words in The Hindu, a prominent national newspaper in India.

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Why AI will be the Catalyst for a new era of productivity growth

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Image by Lin Tong from Pixabay

The dawn of the artificial intelligence (AI) era is often compared to transformative technological advancements such as the steam engine, electricity, and the personal computer. These innovations reshaped industries and daily life, and AI is poised to make an equally revolutionary impact, particularly on global productivity. While the effects of AI are still unfolding, experts believe that its ability to significantly boost productivity could happen in record time—just seven years, compared to decades for earlier technological revolutions.

This optimism comes at a critical juncture in the global economy. Post-pandemic, many countries are grappling with stagnating growth, rising inflation, and mounting debt, alongside the fundamental issue of declining productivity. In fact, several international agencies have noted that the productivity decline following the global economic downturn is unprecedented in recent history. Yet, AI is emerging as a way of hope, offering the potential not only to reverse this trend but to propel productivity to unprecedented heights.

The Economic Impact of AI: A Long-Awaited Leap

The global economy has struggled with low productivity growth for over a decade. For example, U.S. labour productivity growth averaged just 1.68% from 1998 to 2007, a period during which significant technological innovations like the internet and personal computers began to take root. But since 2010, productivity growth has fallen further, dipping to 0.38% between 2010 and 2019.

Some forecasts suggest that generative AI alone could add between $2.6 trillion and $4.4 trillion to the global economy

In this environment, AI is seen as the key to unlocking a new wave of economic efficiency. According to recent reports from the International Monetary Fund (IMF), AI technologies are expected to drive a substantial increase in global productivity. Some forecasts suggest that generative AI alone could add between $2.6 trillion and $4.4 trillion to the global economy.

To understand the potential of AI in the context of productivity growth, it’s useful to compare it to previous technological breakthroughs. The steam engine, for example, took about 60 years to fully transform productivity in manufacturing. Personal computers accelerated productivity growth over 15 years. By contrast, AI is expected to have a profound impact on productivity within just seven years.

Generative AI and Its Promising Future

Generative AI is a form of artificial intelligence that creates new content—whether it’s text, images, or even software code—based on patterns learned from large datasets. The speed with which generative AI is advancing is extraordinary. ChatGPT, released in November 2022, was quickly followed by a more advanced version, GPT-4, and other breakthroughs have appeared throughout 2023. This technology is expanding rapidly, with the capability to process tens of thousands of words in a minute, creating a powerful tool for automating complex tasks.

The applications of generative AI are vast and varied. In the business world, AI systems are already transforming industries like customer operations, marketing, software engineering, and research and development. The banking sector, for example, is projected to see an annual revenue increase of $200 billion to $340 billion through the adoption of AI. The retail and consumer goods sectors could see similar gains, potentially adding up to $600 billion annually.

AI’s potential to automate routine tasks could also free up significant amounts of time for human workers. Studies indicate that generative AI could automate between 60% and 70% of the tasks currently performed by employees, dramatically increasing efficiency. For knowledge-based workers, particularly in high-wage and high-skill sectors, AI is poised to amplify productivity by reducing time spent on routine tasks, such as data analysis, customer service, and administrative work.

Transforming Labour Markets: A Double-Edged Sword

However, the rapid rise of AI is not without its challenges, particularly when it comes to labor markets. Many fear that the widespread adoption of AI could lead to massive job displacement, especially in developed countries where white-collar jobs are more susceptible to automation. According to the IMF, while 30% of U.S. jobs may be at risk of automation by AI, only 13% of jobs in India are likely to be affected, reflecting the differing technological capabilities and labor market structures across the globe.

At the same time, AI’s integration into the economy is expected to create new job opportunities, especially in fields that require advanced technical skills, such as AI development, data science, and cybersecurity. This pattern mirrors historical trends: when previous technological revolutions disrupted the labor market, they also created entirely new industries and job categories. A recent study by MIT found that 60% of the jobs in America today did not exist in 1940, highlighting the constant evolution of the labor market in response to technological innovation.

AI’s Role in Healthcare: Beyond Productivity

AI’s potential extends far beyond traditional sectors like manufacturing or finance. The healthcare industry stands to benefit greatly from AI’s ability to analyze vast amounts of medical data quickly and accurately. For example, AI systems can assist doctors by analyzing scan reports, identifying patterns, and recommending treatment protocols. AI can also reduce the burden of administrative tasks, such as summarizing doctors’ notes and processing insurance claims, thereby improving productivity in healthcare settings while also reducing costs.

Generative AI is now widely recognized as a general-purpose technology (GPT), similar to electricity or the personal computer

Such advancements could lead to significant improvements in healthcare delivery, making it more efficient and cost-effective. This would not only improve outcomes for patients but also contribute to economic growth by lowering healthcare costs for both consumers and governments.

The Path Forward

Generative AI is now widely recognized as a general-purpose technology (GPT), similar to electricity or the personal computer. These technologies have historically contributed to broad-based productivity growth across multiple sectors. The key to AI’s success as a GPT lies in its ability to integrate seamlessly with existing technologies and applications across various industries, driving continuous innovation and productivity gains.

The widespread adoption of AI in industries like logistics, manufacturing, education, and even creative arts has the potential to revolutionize how businesses operate and how workers contribute. As businesses continue to integrate AI into their processes, the resulting efficiencies will likely lead to increased competition, lower prices, and higher wages for workers in industries that embrace these changes.

AI’s transformative potential for global productivity cannot be overstated. Just as the steam engine and personal computers reshaped industries and economies, AI is positioned to trigger an unprecedented leap in productivity across nearly every sector. While challenges related to job displacement and economic inequality remain, the promise of a future in which AI drives substantial economic growth is undeniably exciting.

As AI continues to evolve, it is crucial for businesses, policymakers, and workers to embrace this change, adapting to new technologies and fostering an environment that allows AI to reach its full potential. The future of productivity is unfolding before us, and AI will be at the centre of this revolution.

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Hug the change to keep your business alive

The key to surviving and growing in a changing business environment is to embrace change. Hug the change, for it will keep your business alive and thriving.

Dr. Sudheer Babu

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Image by kalhh from Pixabay

In 1974, Xerox, a global leader in photocopiers, printers, and scanners, commanded a dominant 86% market share of copiers. However, by 1984, that share had plummeted to just 17%. At the same time, profits, which stood at $1.15 billion between 1980 and 1984, dramatically fell to only $290 million.

The company found itself grappling with fierce competition, not only from Japanese manufacturers but also from American rivals. As a result, Xerox began losing its once unchallenged monopoly. One of the key challenges was that Japanese companies, with production costs only 40-50% of Xerox’s, were offering superior products at competitive prices. Xerox, which had once reigned supreme in the copier industry, was now struggling to maintain its position. Faced with this difficult situation, it had only two choices: fight or surrender. Xerox chose to fight. But the question remained—how?

The company’s strategy was to closely study its competitors’ operations, from production methods to after-sales service, to understand why they were outperforming Xerox. By comparing each of their processes with those of their rivals, they identified the gaps in their own systems. Armed with this insight, Xerox implemented improvement plans across the board to enhance its processes and regain its competitive edge. This approach helped the company make a strong recovery and regain its footing in the market.

Image: Pete Linforth from Pixabay

This approach is known as benchmarking—the practice of comparing one’s business processes with those of the best-performing competitors in the industry. The goal is to identify weaknesses and opportunities for improvement. For each function, every process is carefully compared with those of high-performing competitors. Xerox examined every component of its products, comparing them to those of superior offerings, to understand why their competitors’ products were better. They used this knowledge to systematically improve their own processes, ensuring they produced higher-quality products.

In the business world, observing and learning from top performers is not a sign of weakness but a strategic strength. By understanding what makes the best companies successful and striving to improve your own operations, you position your business for success. Benchmarking and adaptability are ongoing processes—businesses that continually evaluate and adjust their practices will thrive in a competitive marketplace.

The key to surviving and growing in a changing business environment is to embrace change. Hug the change, for it will keep your business alive and thriving.

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Guerrilla Marketing: Creative strategies that captivate

Guerrilla marketing offers a path to success if you’re willing to invest a bit of time, creativity, and imagination

Dr. Sudheer Babu

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Image by Karolina Grabowska from Pixabay

When I visit the mall to shop with my family, a buzz of conversations surrounds us. As we meander through the crowd, a beautiful song drifts in from an unknown source. Suddenly, a group of youngsters gathers in the central area and begins dancing. We find ourselves drawn to them, surprised by the spectacle. Even shoppers nearby hear the music and rush over. The dance is vibrant, and as the rhythm builds, the song comes to an end. The dancers dramatically pull off their outerwear, revealing T-shirts emblazoned with a brand name and logo. Like magicians, they blend back into the crowd and vanish.

One day, on a bustling street in Tokyo, Japan, passersby are stunned into a standstill. Their eyes widen in disbelief. Above them, on a ten-story building, a giant billboard displays an image of a football field. Two individuals are suspended by ropes, playing football in midair, executing flips and jumps. Within minutes, news and images of this breathtaking scene spread across the globe, earning the title “Picture of the Morning.” This remarkable advertisement by Adidas captures the world’s attention not through money, but through creativity. It stands in stark contrast to conventional marketing strategies. This is GUERRILLA MARKETING.

Guerrilla marketing is not a minor player; it’s a powerful strategy

The earlier dance was a flash mob, a classic example of guerrilla marketing. By appearing unexpectedly in a place where no one anticipates it, guerrilla marketing captivates observers without feeling like an advertisement. It leaves a lasting impression. These techniques can even be adopted by small businesses with limited marketing budgets. While well-funded corporate giants may not worry about advertising costs, small businesses must justify every penny spent. Guerrilla marketing offers a path to success if you’re willing to invest a bit of time, creativity, and imagination. The potential rewards can significantly exceed the costs.

Next time you board a bus or metro train, take a moment to notice the hanging strap you use for support. Is there an advertisement there? Without realising it, that brand may have already made its way into your mind. Guerrilla marketing is not a minor player; it’s a powerful strategy. Let’s dive deeper into the world of creative advertising techniques.

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