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SpaceX prepares for the Great Filter – but why?

What’s Elon Musk’s gameplan to get humans to thrive in the universe all about?

Karthik Vinod

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Credit: Spongy101010 / Wikimedia

Two weeks ago, Ed Publica did a news story on Elon Musk’s tweet.

It sure was a headline topic in itself. 

“We are mapping out a game plan to get a million people to Mars,” posted Musk. “Civilization only passes the single-planet Great Filter when Mars can survive even if Earth supply ships stop coming.”

Press releases that came in the wake of the tweet, never did engage with Musk’s invocation of – the Great Filter. 

The Great Filter is what the astronomer Seth Shostak stated, a ‘variant on the Fermi paradox’.

The Fermi paradox was borne out of an idea proposed by the enigmatic 20th century theoretical physicist, Enrico Fermi, who posed a profound, philosophical question. 

If an intelligent civilization were capable of space travel, and extraterrestrial life existed, then where are they? 

In fact, the question itself was a paradoxical idea. Either of course, aliens don’t exist – or if they do, then they’re hiding in plain sight, not wanting to be contacted. Perhaps in the latter case, aliens want to avoid being colonized or wiped extinct by a civilization with superior technology. No one knows what the answer is. We don’t know yet if it even is a paradox with an answer. 

But the Great Filter theory, proposed by an economist, Robin Hanson in 1998 makes an interesting argument that offers a possible resolution against the Fermi paradox. Maybe life is uncommon, or can easily go extinct. There can be some factors at play to stop a civilization from thriving and spawn a population to safeguard it. 

Maybe humanity’s destined to live, and then die on earth – only to live on Mars, until every resource exhausts and human genes are ferried to distant exoplanets to hopefully spawn and recreate humanity there. Or perhaps humanity’s alone amongst the trillions of stars in the universe, because someone has to make the first step to show how difficult it is for life to thrive. 

Credit: Greg Rakozy / Unsplash

How feasible is this?

Musk’s prophetic vision is more his vision for humanity – reminiscent in science fiction novels and films.

There’s a line from the movie Interstellar (2014), when Michael Caine, playing an astrophysicist, says, ‘We’re not meant to save the world, we’re meant to leave it.’ In the movie, earth gets plagued by crop blight, and people starve to death when food resources are hard to sustain. Although the problem was foreseeable, we were too late to act on it. And that was the main driver of the plot. Astronauts were dispatched into a wormhole and tunnel through into a different galaxy light years away. Humanity was doomed, and so the astronauts prepared  human embryos to take our place and be the Adam and Eves of their species.

Musk’s idea to colonize Mars makes some sense in that it’s about taking a small step to demonstrate we can demonstrate a necessary first step of survival.

But then space is cruel and indifferent. The Martian atmosphere is completely thin, with almost zero atmospheric pressure. It’s not even about the carbon dioxide in what’s left in that atmosphere – there’s just barely any atmosphere there. Musk probably is aware of this, given he has a physics background! 

For instance, how do we pressurize a whole planet? The optimism is that technology can circumvent these problems. 

This technology, possibly in a few decades, can seem like ‘magic’ to us. The Great Filter and the Fermi paradox are at best a useful thinking exercise about the myriad ways human imagination really works. 

And until we demonstrate basic physics that works in its favor, aren’t these just wishful fantasies? 

For instance, how can SpaceX ‘gameplan’ Mars’ colonization, if the company doesn’t itself survive the Great Filter test?  Who else in the world is taking this seriously apart from Elon Musk? 

‘Colonizing’ space

Musk’s gameplan invites more questions, since there’s barely any discussion that he leads on it.

Musk is polarizing to his critics, who question the need for expensive space exploration programs that have no direct benefit on our economy.

Musk’s usage of the term ‘colonization’ can be seen to resonate with the sentiment in the 15th century when the West discovered the rest of the world through the sea-route. However, it didn’t fare well for the rest of the world. One notable example is when Christopher Columbus, ‘discovered’ North America, when he was in search of India – he and his men began the subjugation of Native Americans

An 1850 painting depicting Christopher Columbus (center) surrounded by people, before embarking a ship in August 1492. Credit: Wellcome Trust

Meanwhile, the Portuguese voyager Vasco da Gama arrived at the shores of India, in Kozhikode. That opened up routes for vessels of the East India Company from across Europe to trade – and then colonize Indians

I’m not suggesting Musk has nefarious plans at play. However, what’s the chance that future government policies somehow get blindsided, or ignorant of advice from experts outside science on the political implications of space exploration? 

And what better ‘gameplan’ can there really be if it starts with experts from a diversity of fields huddling together for an enlightening discussion? 

Karthik Vinod is a freelance science writer and journalist from Kochi, India. He runs EdPublica as co-founder and science editor.

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The Rise of U.S. Retail Giants: A Century of Political and Economic Shaping

Currently, 90% of Americans live within 10 miles of a Walmart, and five of the top 10 U.S. employers—Walmart, Amazon, Home Depot, Kroger, and Target—are retailers

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MIT political scientist Kathleen Thelen’s new book, “Attention, Shoppers!”Credits:Photo: Gretchen Ertl

The U.S. retail sector, once dominated by small, independent merchants, has transformed over the past century into a landscape controlled by retail giants. In the late 19th century, most U.S. retail was local. However, this shifted with the rise of catalog retailers like Sears and Roebuck, which saw rapid growth, followed by Montgomery Ward’s expansion. By the 1930s, chain stores began to proliferate, with the Atlantic and Pacific (A&P) supermarkets leading the pack with over 15,000 locations.

Fast-forward to today, and the dominance of retailers like Walmart, Amazon, and Target is undeniable. Currently, 90% of Americans live within 10 miles of a Walmart, and five of the top 10 U.S. employers—Walmart, Amazon, Home Depot, Kroger, and Target—are retailers. In addition, logistics giants UPS and FedEx play a crucial role in supporting the retail economy.

This prevalence of massive retail chains is largely unique to the U.S., where domestic consumption is a driving force behind economic growth. Additionally, the U.S. has five times as much retail space per capita as Japan and the U.K., and 10 times as much as Germany. Unlike in Europe, the U.S. has few regulations limiting shopping hours.

How did we arrive at this point? While major chains like Walmart and Amazon are known for their business prowess, the full story involves over a century of political and legal debates that shaped the landscape of U.S. retailing. MIT political scientist Kathleen Thelen, in her new book Attention, Shoppers! American Retail Capitalism and the Origins of the Amazon Economy, dives into the role of political and legal forces in the rise of large, low-cost retailers.

“The markets that we take as given, that we think of as the natural outcome of supply and demand, are heavily shaped by policy and by politics,” Thelen explains.

Thelen’s book offers a unique perspective, drawing comparisons with European economies and taking a historical approach to the growth of chain retailing. For instance, she highlights how alternative commercial arrangements, like cooperatives, were stifled by U.S. antitrust laws, which favored big corporations while suppressing smaller competitors. This legal framework gave a significant advantage to large retailers, including Sears, which relied on the U.S. Postal Service’s money order system to reach customers who lacked bank accounts.

Smaller retailers resisted the expansion of large chains, particularly during the Great Depression, but big retailers found ways around regulatory constraints. “Antitrust laws in the United States were very forbearing toward big multidivisional corporations and very punitive toward alternative types of arrangements like cooperatives, so big retailers got a real boost in that period,” Thelen says. Over time, antitrust law increasingly prioritized consumer prices, further benefiting low-cost retailers.

As Thelen argues, prioritizing price reduction often leads to lower wages for workers, with large retailers driving down wages both directly and through pressure on suppliers. “If you prioritize prices, one of the main ways to reduce prices is to reduce labor costs,” she says, noting that low-cost discounters are often low-wage employers.

In her analysis, Thelen suggests that the American retail system’s focus on low prices, low wages, and high consumer convenience has led to a “deep equilibrium,” where low-wage workers rely on these retail giants to make ends meet. Meanwhile, the speed of modern delivery systems has become a normal part of American shopping culture.

“The triumph of these types of retailers was not inevitable,” Thelen reflects. “It was a function of politics and political choice.” With ongoing debates about labor law reforms and antitrust enforcement, the current retail equilibrium may persist for the foreseeable future, unless significant changes are made to the system.

Through Attention, Shoppers!, Thelen offers readers a comprehensive look at the economic forces that have shaped the retail sector, helping explain the giant retail landscape many Americans take for granted today.

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Jio Joins Forces with SpaceX’s Starlink to Bring High-Speed Internet to India

India’s richest man Mukesh Ambani’s Jio Partners with SpaceX for a Digital Revolution

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In a groundbreaking move, Jio Platforms Limited (JPL), a subsidiary of India’s Reliance Industries Limited, has announced a strategic partnership with SpaceX to offer Starlink’s high-speed broadband internet services across India. This collaboration comes as part of Jio’s ambition to expand its broadband offerings and transform connectivity in the country, especially in rural and remote areas.

The partnership between Jio, led by India’s richest man, Mukesh Ambani, and SpaceX, led by US billionaire Elon Musk, marks a significant step in bridging the digital divide and accelerating India’s digital ecosystem. By bringing Starlink’s advanced low Earth orbit (LEO) satellite internet into its fold, Jio is positioning itself at the forefront of India’s broadband evolution, promising to provide affordable and high-speed internet to even the most remote corners of the country.

Through this agreement, Jio will integrate Starlink’s services into its vast network, offering them to both consumers and businesses across India. Customers will be able to access Starlink’s solutions through Jio’s retail outlets as well as its online platforms, ensuring a seamless and efficient experience for users nationwide.

“Ensuring that every Indian, no matter where they live, has access to affordable and high-speed broadband remains Jio’s top priority,” said Mathew Oommen, Group CEO of Reliance Jio, in a statement. “Our collaboration with SpaceX to bring Starlink to India strengthens our commitment and marks a transformative step toward seamless broadband connectivity for all. By integrating Starlink into Jio’s broadband ecosystem, we are expanding our reach and enhancing the reliability and accessibility of high-speed broadband in this AI-driven era, empowering communities and businesses across the country.”

Jio’s extensive infrastructure, paired with Starlink’s pioneering satellite technology, will address the connectivity challenges in India’s most underserved areas, ensuring the benefits of the digital age are accessible to all. The collaboration will also allow Jio to complement its existing broadband services, such as JioAirFiber and JioFiber, by providing high-speed internet in hard-to-reach locations more quickly and affordably.

Additionally, Jio and SpaceX are exploring further areas of collaboration, looking for innovative ways to strengthen India’s digital landscape. Gwynne Shotwell, President and Chief Operating Officer of SpaceX, commented, “We applaud Jio’s commitment to advancing India’s connectivity. We are looking forward to working with Jio and receiving authorization from the Government of India to provide more people, organizations, and businesses with access to Starlink’s high-speed internet services.”

In an interesting twist, Jio’s partnership with Starlink comes just one day after India’s second-largest telecom operator, Airtel, also signed a deal with Starlink. This move indicates that India’s telecom sector is witnessing a significant transformation as leading operators race to offer cutting-edge broadband services through satellite technology, further boosting the country’s digital revolution.

As part of its long-term strategy, Jio continues to innovate and diversify its offerings, positioning itself as a leader in the broadband space with cutting-edge solutions. With this collaboration, Jio not only aims to enhance the reach of its broadband services but also solidifies its role in advancing India’s goal of becoming a global leader in the digital economy.

The union of Jio’s expansive infrastructure and SpaceX’s space-based internet promises to accelerate India’s journey toward becoming a digitally connected nation, ensuring that no part of the country is left behind in the fast-evolving digital landscape.

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New Research Could Allow People to Correct Robots’ Actions in Real-Time

Through basic interactions like pointing to the object, tracing a path on a screen, or physically nudging the robot’s arm, you could guide it to complete the task more accurately.

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Graduate student Felix Yanwei Wang nudges a robotic arm that is manipulating a bowl in a toy kitchen set up in the group’s lab. Using the framework Wang and his collaborators developed, slightly nudging a robot is one way to correct its behavior. Credits:Credit: Melanie Gonick, MIT

A breakthrough framework developed by researchers from MIT and NVIDIA may soon allow people to correct a robot’s actions in real-time using simple, intuitive feedback—similar to how they would guide another person.

Imagine you’re doing the dishes and a robot grabs a soapy bowl from the sink—but its gripper misses the mark. Instead of having to retrain the robot from scratch, a new method could enable you to fix its behaviour in real time. Through basic interactions like pointing to the object, tracing a path on a screen, or physically nudging the robot’s arm, you could guide it to complete the task more accurately.

This new approach eliminates the need for users to collect data and retrain the robot’s machine-learning model, unlike other traditional methods. Instead, it allows the robot to immediately adjust its actions based on user feedback to get as close as possible to fulfilling the user’s intent.

In tests, the framework’s success rate was 21 percent higher than an alternative method that did not leverage human corrections.

“This approach is designed to let robots perform tasks effectively right out of the box,” says Felix Yanwei Wang, an MIT graduate student in electrical engineering and computer science (EECS) and the lead author of a paper on the framework. “We can’t expect laypeople to gather data and fine-tune models. If a robot doesn’t work as expected, users should have an intuitive way to fix it.”

Wang’s co-authors include Lirui Wang PhD ’24, Yilun Du PhD ’24, senior author Julie Shah, MIT professor of aeronautics and astronautics and director of the Interactive Robotics Group at CSAIL, along with Balakumar Sundaralingam, Xuning Yang, Yu-Wei Chao, Claudia Perez-D’Arpino PhD ’19, and Dieter Fox from NVIDIA. The research will be presented at the upcoming International Conference on Robots and Automation.

A New Approach to Robot Correction

Currently, many robots use generative AI models trained on vast amounts of data to perform tasks. These models can solve complex tasks but often struggle to adapt to real-world situations that differ from their training environment. For example, a robot might fail to pick up a box from a shelf if the shelf in the user’s home is arranged differently than in its training environment.

To address this, engineers often collect new data and retrain the model—a time-consuming and costly process. However, the new MIT-NVIDIA framework allows users to interact with the robot during deployment, correcting its behavior in real time without the need for retraining.

“We want users to guide the robot without causing mistakes that could misalign with their intent,” says Wang. “The goal is to provide feedback that adjusts the robot’s behavior in a way that is both valid and aligned with the user’s goals.”

The system offers three ways for users to provide feedback: they can point to the object they want the robot to interact with, trace a desired trajectory on a screen, or physically nudge the robot’s arm. Wang explains, “Physically nudging the robot is the most direct way to specify user intent without losing any of the information.”

Ensuring Valid Actions

To avoid the robot making invalid moves—like colliding with nearby objects—the researchers developed a sampling procedure. This technique ensures that the robot chooses actions that are both feasible and aligned with the user’s request.

“Rather than just imposing the user’s will, we allow the robot to take the user’s intent into account while ensuring the actions remain valid,” Wang says.

The researchers’ framework outperformed other methods during tests with a real robot arm in a toy kitchen. While the robot might not always complete tasks immediately, the system allows users to correct it on the spot, without waiting for it to finish and then provide new instructions.

The framework also has the potential to learn from user corrections. For instance, if a user nudges the robot to pick up the correct bowl, the robot could log this action and incorporate it into its future behavior, gradually improving over time.

“The key to continuous improvement is having a way for users to interact with the robot,” says Wang. “This method makes that possible.”

Looking ahead, the researchers aim to improve the speed of the sampling procedure and test the framework in new, more complex environments, paving the way for robots that are more adaptable to real-world scenarios.

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