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SpaceX prepares for the Great Filter – but why?

What’s Elon Musk’s gameplan to get humans to thrive in the universe all about?

Karthik Vinod

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Credit: Spongy101010 / Wikimedia

Two weeks ago, Ed Publica did a news story on Elon Musk’s tweet. It sure was a headline topic in itself.  “We are mapping out a game plan to get a million people to Mars,” posted Musk. “Civilization only passes the single-planet Great Filter when Mars can survive even if Earth supply ships stop coming.”

Press releases that came in the wake of the tweet, never did engage with Musk’s invocation of – the Great Filter – which as the astronomer Seth Shostak once stated, a ‘variant on the Fermi paradox’.

The Fermi paradox was borne out of an idea proposed by the enigmatic 20th century theoretical physicist, Enrico Fermi, who posed a profound, philosophical question: If an intelligent civilization were capable of space travel, and extraterrestrial life existed, then where are they? 

The question itself was a paradoxical idea. Either of course, aliens don’t exist – or if they do, then they’re hiding in plain sight, not wanting to be contacted. Perhaps in the latter case, aliens want to avoid being colonized or wiped extinct by a civilization with superior technology. No one knows what the answer is. We don’t know yet if it even is a paradox with an answer. 

But the Great Filter theory, proposed by an economist, Robin Hanson in 1998 makes an interesting argument that offers a possible resolution against the Fermi paradox. Maybe life is uncommon, or can easily go extinct. There can be some factors at play to stop a civilization from thriving and spawn a population to safeguard it. 

Maybe humanity’s destined to live, and then die on earth – only to live on Mars, until every resource exhausts and human genes are ferried to distant exoplanets to hopefully spawn and recreate humanity there. Or perhaps humanity’s alone amongst the trillions of stars in the universe, because someone has to make the first step to show how difficult it is for life to thrive. 

Credit: Greg Rakozy / Unsplash

How feasible is this?

Musk’s prophetic vision is more his vision for humanity – reminiscent in science fiction novels and films.

There’s a line from the movie Interstellar (2014), when Michael Caine, playing an astrophysicist, says, ‘We’re not meant to save the world, we’re meant to leave it.’ In the movie, earth gets plagued by crop blight, and people starve to death when food resources are hard to sustain. Although the problem was foreseeable, we were too late to act on it. And that was the main driver of the plot. Astronauts were dispatched into a wormhole and tunnel through into a different galaxy light years away. Humanity was doomed, and so the astronauts prepared  human embryos to take our place and be the Adam and Eves of their species.

Musk’s idea to colonize Mars makes some sense in that it’s about taking a small step to demonstrate we can demonstrate a necessary first step of survival.

But then space is cruel and indifferent. The Martian atmosphere is completely thin, with almost zero atmospheric pressure. It’s not even about the carbon dioxide in what’s left in that atmosphere – there’s just barely any atmosphere there. Musk probably is aware of this, given he has a physics background! 

For instance, how do we pressurize a whole planet? The optimism is that technology can circumvent these problems. 

This technology, possibly in a few decades, can seem like ‘magic’ to us. The Great Filter and the Fermi paradox are at best a useful thinking exercise about the myriad ways human imagination really works. 

And until we demonstrate basic physics that works in its favor, aren’t these just wishful fantasies? 

For instance, how can SpaceX ‘gameplan’ Mars’ colonization, if the company doesn’t itself survive the Great Filter test?  Who else in the world is taking this seriously apart from Elon Musk? 

‘Colonizing’ space

Musk’s gameplan invites more questions, since there’s barely any discussion that he leads on it.

Musk is polarizing to his critics, who question the need for expensive space exploration programs that have no direct benefit on our economy.

Musk’s usage of the term ‘colonization’ can be seen to resonate with the sentiment in the 15th century when the West discovered the rest of the world through the sea-route. However, it didn’t fare well for the rest of the world. One notable example is when Christopher Columbus, ‘discovered’ North America, when he was in search of India – he and his men began the subjugation of Native Americans

An 1850 painting depicting Christopher Columbus (center) surrounded by people, before embarking a ship in August 1492. Credit: Wellcome Trust

Meanwhile, the Portuguese voyager Vasco da Gama arrived at the shores of India, in Kozhikode. That opened up routes for vessels of the East India Company from across Europe to trade – and then colonize Indians

I’m not suggesting Musk has nefarious plans at play. However, what’s the chance that future government policies somehow get blindsided, or ignorant of advice from experts outside science on the political implications of space exploration? 

And what better ‘gameplan’ can there really be if it starts with experts from a diversity of fields huddling together for an enlightening discussion? 

Society

Solar Panel Costs Plummet 99% Since 1970s as Cross-Industry Innovations Drive RE Revolution

New MIT research reveals how 81 key technological advances from diverse sectors enabled dramatic cost reductions in photovoltaic systems

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Image credit: Sebastian Ganso from Pixabay

The cost of solar panels has dropped by more than 99 percent since the 1970s, enabling widespread adoption of photovoltaic systems that convert sunlight into electricity, according to an interesting new research from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT).

A comprehensive MIT study has identified the specific innovations behind this dramatic transformation, revealing that technical advances across a web of diverse research efforts and industries played a pivotal role in making solar energy economically viable worldwide.

Cross-industry innovation network

The research, published in PLOS ONE, demonstrates that key innovations often originated outside the solar sector entirely, including advances in semiconductor fabrication, metallurgy, glass manufacturing, oil and gas drilling, construction processes, and even legal domains.

“Our results show just how intricate the process of cost improvement is, and how much scientific and engineering advances, often at a very basic level, are at the heart of these cost reductions,” study senior author Jessika Trancik said in a media statement. “A lot of knowledge was drawn from different domains and industries, and this network of knowledge is what makes these technologies improve.”

Trancik, a professor in MIT’s Institute for Data, Systems, and Society, led the research team that identified 81 unique innovations affecting photovoltaic system costs since 1970, ranging from improvements in antireflective coated glass to the implementation of fully online permitting interfaces.

Strategic Implications for Industry

The findings could prove instrumental for renewable energy companies making R&D investment decisions and help policymakers identify priority areas to accelerate manufacturing and deployment growth.

The research team included co-lead authors Goksin Kavlak, now a senior energy associate at the Brattle Group, and Magdalena Klemun, currently an assistant professor at Johns Hopkins University, along with former MIT postdoc Ajinkya Kamat and researchers Brittany Smith and Robert Margolis from the National Renewable Energy Laboratory.

Key findings

Building on mathematical models previously developed to analyze engineering technologies’ effects on photovoltaic costs, researchers combined quantitative cost modelling with detailed qualitative analysis of innovations affecting materials, manufacturing, and deployment processes.

“Our quantitative cost model guided the qualitative analysis, allowing us to look closely at innovations in areas that are hard to measure due to a lack of quantitative data,” Kavlak said in a media statement.

The team conducted structured literature scans for innovations likely to affect key cost drivers such as solar cells per module, wiring efficiency, and silicon wafer area. They then grouped innovations to identify patterns and tracked industry origins and timing for each advance.

Module vs. Balance-of-system innovations

The researchers distinguished between photovoltaic module costs and balance-of-system (BOS) costs, which cover mounting systems, inverters, and wiring. While PV modules are mass-produced and exportable, many BOS components are designed and built locally.

“By examining innovations both at the BOS level and within the modules, we identify the different types of innovations that have emerged in these two parts of PV technology,” Kavlak added.

The analysis revealed that BOS costs depend more heavily on “soft technologies”—nonphysical elements such as permitting procedures—which have contributed significantly less to cost improvements compared to hardware innovations.

“Often, it comes down to delays. Time is money, and if you have delays on construction sites and unpredictable processes, that affects these balance-of-system costs,” Trancik said.

Industry cross-pollination

The research found that innovations from semiconductor, electronics, metallurgy, and petroleum industries played major roles in reducing both PV and BOS costs. BOS costs were additionally impacted by advances in software engineering and electric utilities.

Notably, while most PV panel innovations originated in research organizations or industry, many BOS innovations were developed by city governments, U.S. states, or professional associations.

“I knew there was a lot going on with this technology, but the diversity of all these fields and how closely linked they are, and the fact that we can clearly see that network through this analysis, was interesting,” Trancik said in a media statement.

“PV was very well-positioned to absorb innovations from other industries—thanks to the right timing, physical compatibility, and supportive policies to adapt innovations for PV applications,” Klemun added.

Quantifying impact

To demonstrate their methodology’s practical applications, researchers estimated specific innovations’ quantitative impact. For example, wire sawing technology introduced in the 1980s led to an overall PV system cost decrease of $5 per watt by reducing silicon losses and increasing manufacturing throughput.

Future applications and computing power

The analysis highlighted the potential role of enhanced computing power in reducing BOS costs through automated engineering review systems and remote site assessment software.

“In terms of knowledge spillovers, what we’ve seen so far in PV may really just be the beginning,” Klemun said, pointing to robotics and AI-driven digital tools’ expanding role in driving future cost reductions and quality improvements.

The research team plans to apply this methodology to other renewable energy systems and further study soft technology to identify processes that could accelerate cost reductions.

“Through this retrospective analysis, you learn something valuable for future strategy because you can see what worked and what didn’t work, and the models can also be applied prospectively. It is also useful to know what adjacent sectors may help support improvement in a particular technology,” Trancik said. “Although the process of technological innovation may seem like a black box, we’ve shown that you can study it just like any other phenomena.”

The research provides crucial insights for understanding how complex technological systems evolve and offers a roadmap for accelerating innovation in renewable energy and other critical technologies through strategic cross-industry collaboration.

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Earth

How Barn Owls Brought Nature, Knowledge, and Heart to a South African Campus

At the University of the Free State, South Africa, a quiet conservation story unfolds above the bookshelves – reminding us that even academic spaces can grow wings.

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High above the rows of books and hushed reading tables of the Sasol Library at the University of the Free State (UFS), something unexpected is taking flight. A pair of barn owls have made their home in the library’s roof, quietly raising their young and shifting the way an entire academic community sees its role in the world. Their story, both poetic and practical, is becoming a symbol of collaboration, compassion, and conservation.

The owls aren’t just guests—they’re catalysts. What began as a distressed bird outside the library in 2023 has transformed into a university-wide initiative blending science, storytelling, and shared stewardship.

“Our library is a living ecosystem”

For Prof Vasu Reddy, Deputy Vice-Chancellor: Research and Internationalisation, the owls are more than a charming anecdote.

“If we consider Shakespeare’s play, All’s Well That Ends Well, then the presence of the owls in the Sasol Library confirms another meaning of that play,”

“Love,” Prof Reddy says, “is not always considered noble, but is something persistent, and our library is not just a building, but a living ecosystem where precious documents, people, and even animals can interact, shape, and nurture our lives.”

Credit: UFS

That idea—that libraries are not only homes to knowledge, but habitats for life—is now echoed across campus.

A rescue that became a movement

The turning point came when Tanya Scherman, from the Centre for Teaching and Learning, spotted a sick owl near the library—likely a victim of secondary poisoning from a contaminated rodent.

“It appeared that the owl had been poisoned,” she recalls. “I phoned around trying to find more knowledgeable people who could help.”

Her outreach brought in a network of allies, including the Owl Rescue Centre in Pretoria, a local vet, and Prof Francois Deacon from the Department of Animal Sciences.

“As someone passionate about urban wildlife conservation, I saw a great opportunity – not just to support the owls, but to involve students in hands-on learning,” says Prof Deacon.

Together with his postgraduate students, Ruan Higgs and Kaitlyn Taylor, the team designed a custom nesting box and installed a motion-activated infrared camera to monitor owl activity safely. For Scherman, building the box was a family affair.

“I worked with my dad to build it,” she shares. “He’s an avid animal lover too… It was such a special moment to share with my family.”

From research to relationships

The project has already yielded tangible outcomes. In 2023, the owl pair successfully raised two owlets. This year, six eggs were laid—three owlets are visible so far.

Image credit: UFS

“It captures feeding events, chick development, and parental behaviour,” says Prof Deacon. “This kind of passive monitoring is invaluable… These owls are teaching tools.”

Their footage has already formed the basis for student research on owl diet, nesting habits, and ecological adaptation. And the benefits go beyond science.

“What’s been most rewarding was how many people came together around this – from librarians to students to scientists. We built friendships, not just a nest box.”

Even librarian Hesma van Tonder joined a giraffe capture excursion with Deacon’s team. These moments, Deacon says, are where research and real-life adventure meet.

Symbols of wisdom – and survival

For Scherman, the owls touch something deeper than academic interest.

“My grandparents also had a special connection to owls… When we saw the baby owlets, I naturally felt like I was being promoted to an owl-granny!”

She also hopes to change cultural perceptions around these often-misunderstood birds.

“It’s understandable,” she says, “with their eerie calls, white faces, and ghost-like flight. But they are also messengers, protectors, and symbols of wisdom in many traditions.”

From reducing rodent populations naturally to serving as symbols of coexistence, barn owls bring both ecological and educational value.

“A single owl pair can eat hundreds of rodents in a breeding season,” says Prof Deacon. “We found remains of small birds and insects in their regurgitated pellets… which shows just how active and adaptive they are in an urban environment.”

But risks remain—road traffic, noise, and poisoning threaten their safety. That’s why Scherman and Deacon urge the campus community to be mindful.

“Don’t try to help an injured owl yourself,” says Scherman. “Rather contact Prof Deacon or me… We’re here to assist.”

“Awareness builds respect,” Prof Deacon adds. “Simple behaviours, such as keeping windows closed at night near the roost, go a long way.”

Where silence meets storytelling

As word spread, the initiative grew in meaning—turning the Sasol Library into more than a study space. It’s now a symbol of the university’s values in action.

“It is clear that what may be seen as a disruptive incident with an owl swooping into our library space is also a pedagogical and deeply conservation touchdown,” reflects Prof Reddy.

“Our barn owl event tells us that our library is also a space where silence meets storytelling… where every creature’s story has a rightful place.”

Looking forward

The team is already dreaming bigger. Deacon hopes to expand the project into green corridors, rooftop biodiversity zones, and support for species like bats and pollinators. He sees it as the start of a new kind of campus culture—one rooted in curiosity and care.

“If our university matters and is to remain meaningful,” Prof Reddy says, “our accidental visitors have given new impetus to the fact that our library space holds our stories, and they are making places for new ones as part of our responsible societal futures.”

As the owls continue their quiet vigil above the Sasol Library, they leave more than pellets behind. They leave a legacy of connection—between people, nature, and the pursuit of knowledge. And in that space, where a library became a nest, a new kind of learning has taken flight.

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Society

How 2025’s Emerging Technologies Could Redefine Our Lives

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In an age when algorithms help cars avoid traffic and synthetic microbes could soon deliver our medicine, the boundary between science fiction and science fact is shrinking. The World Economic Forum’s Top 10 Emerging Technologies of 2025 offers a powerful reminder that innovation is not just accelerating — it’s converging, maturing, and aligning itself to confront humanity’s most urgent challenges.

From smart cities to sustainable farming, from cutting-edge therapeutics to low-impact energy, this year’s list is more than a forecast. It’s a blueprint for a near future in which resilience and responsibility are just as crucial as raw invention.

Sensing the World Together

Imagine a city that can sense a traffic jam, redirect ambulances instantly, or coordinate drone deliveries without a hiccup. That’s the promise of collaborative sensing, a leading entry in the 2025 lineup. This technology enables vehicles, emergency services, and infrastructure to “talk” to each other in real time using a network of connected sensors — helping cities become safer, faster, and more responsive.

It’s one of several technologies on this year’s list that fall under the theme of “trust and safety in a connected world” — a trend reflecting the growing importance of reliable information, responsive systems, and secure networks in daily life.

Trust, Truth, and Invisible Watermarks

But as digital content spreads and AI-generated images become harder to distinguish from reality, how do we safeguard truth? Generative watermarking offers a promising solution. By embedding invisible tags in AI-generated media, this technology makes it easier to verify content authenticity, helping fight misinformation and deepfakes.

“The path from breakthrough research to tangible societal progress depends on transparency, collaboration, and open science,” said Frederick Fenter, Chief Executive Editor of Frontiers, in a media statement issued alongside the report. “Together with the World Economic Forum, we have once again delivered trusted, evidence-based insights on emerging technologies that will shape a better future for all.”

Rethinking Industry, Naturally

Other breakthroughs are tackling the environmental consequences of how we make things.

Green nitrogen fixation, for instance, offers a cleaner way to produce fertilizers — traditionally one of agriculture’s biggest polluters. By using electricity instead of fossil fuels to bind nitrogen, this method could slash emissions while helping feed a growing planet.

Then there’s nanozymes — synthetic materials that mimic enzymes but are more stable, affordable, and versatile. Their potential applications range from improving diagnostics to cleaning up industrial waste, marking a shift toward smarter, greener manufacturing.

These technologies fall under the trend the report identifies as “sustainable industry redesign.”

Health Breakthroughs, From Microbes to Molecules

The 2025 report also spotlights next-generation biotechnologies for health, a category that includes some of the most exciting and potentially transformative innovations.

Engineered living therapeutics — beneficial bacteria genetically modified to detect and treat disease from within the body — could make chronic care both cheaper and more effective.

Meanwhile, GLP-1 agonists, drugs first developed for diabetes and obesity, are now showing promise in treating Alzheimer’s and Parkinson’s — diseases for which few options exist.

And with autonomous biochemical sensing, tiny wireless devices capable of monitoring environmental or health conditions 24/7 could allow early detection of pollution or disease — offering critical tools in a world facing climate stress and health inequities.

Building Smarter, Powering Cleaner

Under the theme of “energy and material integration”, the report also identifies new approaches to building and powering the future.

Structural battery composites, for example, are materials that can both carry loads and store energy. Used in vehicles and aircraft, they could lighten the load — quite literally — for electric transportation.

Osmotic power systems offer another intriguing frontier: by harnessing the energy released when freshwater and saltwater mix, they provide a low-impact, consistent power source suited to estuaries and coastal areas.

And as global electricity demand climbs — especially with the growth of AI, data centers, and electrification — advanced nuclear technologies are gaining renewed interest. With smaller, safer designs and new cooling systems, next-gen nuclear promises to deliver scalable zero-carbon power.

Toward a Converging Future

This year’s edition of the report emphasizes a deeper trend: technological convergence. Across domains, innovations are beginning to merge — batteries into structures, biology into computing, sensing into infrastructure. The future, it seems, will be shaped less by standalone inventions and more by integrated, systemic solutions.

“Scientific and technological breakthroughs are advancing rapidly, even as the global environment for innovation grows more complex,” said Jeremy Jurgens, Managing Director of the World Economic Forum, in the WEF’s official media release.


“The research provides top global leaders with a clear view of which technologies are approaching readiness, how they could solve the world’s pressing problems and what’s required to bring them to scale responsibly,” he added.

Beyond the Hype

Now in its 13th year, the Top 10 Emerging Technologies report has a strong track record of identifying breakthroughs poised to move from lab to life — including mRNA vaccines, flexible batteries, and CRISPR-based gene editing.

But this year’s list is not just a celebration of possibility. It’s a reminder of what’s needed to deliver impact at scale: responsible governance, sustained investment, and public trust.

As Jeremy Jurgens noted, “Breakthroughs must be supported by the right environment — transparent, collaborative, and scalable — if they are to benefit society at large.”

In a time of climate stress, digital overload, and health inequity, these ten technologies offer something rare: a credible roadmap to a better future — not decades away, but just around the corner.

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