Brazil’s groEmissionsss greenhouse gas emissions fell from 2.576 billion tons of CO₂ equivalent in 2023 to 2.145 billion tons in 2024, the lowest drop since the country’s 17.2% decline in 2009. This turnaround was powered by enforcement against illegal deforestation, reversing a period of lax protections between 2019 and 2022. The net emissions figure—which deducts carbon absorbed by secondary forests and protected areas—dropped even further, down 22% year-on-year, landing at 1.489 billion tons in 2024.​

Sectoral Breakdown: Where Emissions Fell and Rose

The land-use sector, mostly deforestation, saw its gross emissions tumble from 1.341 to 0.906 billion tons (32.5% drop)—the largest reduction on record for any sector. This shifted the national emissions profile:

>> Land use change: 42% in 2024, compared to 52% in 2023

>> Agriculture: 29%, up from 24%

>> Energy: 20%, up from 16%

>> Waste: 5%

>> Industrial processes: 4% (both stable)

Emissions in agriculture and energy remained mostly flat, with only waste (up 3.6%) and industry (up 2.8%) recording notable increases.​

Deforestation Down, but Not the Whole Story

Enhanced government actions led to a 33% decline in Amazon deforestation emissions and a 41% drop in the Cerrado. Nevertheless, fires not associated with deforestation nearly doubled Brazil’s net deforestation emissions—an emerging risk as climate change fuels extreme drought and wildfires across formerly resilient biomes.​

Agriculture, Cattle, and Energy: Stubborn Sources

Brazil’s cattle sector remains the single largest emissions source, responsible for roughly 51% of national total. Efforts to control methane—including increased feedlot use and smaller herds—delivered a marginal 0.2% reduction in herd size and a slight drop in emissions. Nitrous oxide from fertilizers and lime also saw small declines, offsetting overall emission growth. Notably, emissions from energy rose nearly 1% due to record travel and electricity demand; only record ethanol and biodiesel consumption kept fossil CO₂ in check.​

Paris Pledge Still Out of Sight

Despite the historic emissions drop, Brazil is projected to end 2025 with net emissions of 1.44 billion tons—9% above its target under the Paris Agreement of 1.32 billion tons. While deforestation is falling, rising emissions from energy, agriculture, waste, and industry threaten to undermine overall climate progress. Experts emphasize that broader emission cuts, especially in fossil energy, are urgently needed for Brazil to have a chance at meeting its 2030 target (1.2 billion tons).​

Brazil’s 2024 emissions breakthrough underscores the pivotal impact of deforestation control on the country’s climate footprint. Yet, absent deeper reforms in agriculture, waste, and especially energy, Brazil’s Paris goals may remain out of reach—a clear signal for policymakers ahead of COP30.

Declaring that “no country is safe from the devastating impacts of extreme weather,” UN Secretary-General António Guterres called for a global surge in early warning systems to protect lives, economies, and ecosystems from climate-fuelled disasters.​

Speaking at the 75th anniversary of the World Meteorological Organization (WMO), Guterres hailed the agency as “a barometer of truth” and “a shining example of science supporting humanity.” It was his first address to the WMO, reflecting the agency’s central role in turning climate science into life-saving action.

“Without your rigorous modelling and forecasting, we would not know what lies ahead — or how to prepare for it,” he told delegates gathered at WMO headquarters in Geneva.

The occasion doubled as the midway checkpoint for the Early Warnings for All (EW4All) initiative, launched by Guterres in 2022 to ensure every person on Earth is protected by life-saving warning systems by 2027.

WMO Secretary-General Celeste Saulo issued a “Call to Action,” urging all countries to close early warning gaps through expanded observation networks, strengthened hydrological services, and community-level outreach. “Every dollar invested in early warning saves up to fifteen in disaster losses,” she said.​

Saulo cautioned that despite major progress—108 countries now operate multi-hazard warning systems—the world’s poorest remain the least protected. Disaster mortality rates are six times higher in countries with limited early warning coverage.​

A 75-Year Legacy of Science for Action

Marking 75 years since it became a UN specialized agency, WMO used its Extraordinary Congress to reaffirm global cooperation in weather, water, and climate monitoring.​

President Abdulla al Mandous praised Guterres for embedding early warning systems into the international climate agenda: “Early warnings are now recognized at the highest levels as cost-effective, life-saving, and cross-cutting solutions that reduce risk and advance development,” he said.

Guterres urged three urgent priorities to achieve universal coverage: integrating early warnings across governance structures, boosting finance and debt relief for vulnerable nations, and aligning national climate plans to limit temperature rise to 1.5°C.

“Every life lost to disaster is one too many,” he said. “With science, solidarity, and political resolve, we can ensure a safer planet for all.”

A new global analysis released ahead of COP30 warns that the world must mobilize at least US$443 billion each year to help smallholder farmers adapt to worsening climate impacts—nearly the same amount currently spent on subsidies that harm both people and the planet.

The report, released by Climate Focus for the Family Farmers for Climate Action (FFCA)—an alliance representing 95 million small-scale producers worldwide—reveals that only 0.36% of needed funds currently reach these farmers.​

Smallholders, who farm less than 10 hectares each, produce half of the world’s food calories and sustain 2.5 billion livelihoods, yet face rising threats from droughts, floods, and storms. “This isn’t charity—it’s an investment in global food security,” said Elizabeth Nsimadala, President of the Eastern Africa Farmers Federation.

The Cost of Survival: Less Than a Daily Coffee

According to the report, the annual adaptation cost for a typical one-hectare farm is just US$953—or about US$2.19 a day—less than the price of a cup of coffee in Germany. Meanwhile, smallholders already spend 20–40% of their income on adaptation measures, totaling US$368 billion a year from their own pockets.​

Investments would support vital measures like micro-irrigation systems, early warning networks, and climate-resilient seeds—steps proven to prevent devastation from saltwater intrusion in Vietnam’s Mekong Delta or drought crises across East Africa.

Dangerous Finance Gaps Leave Farmers Defenseless

Despite their crucial role, current global spending on smallholder adaptation reached only US$1.59 billion in 2021, a drop in the ocean compared to the estimated need. Bureaucratic barriers, limited access to rural banking, and restrictive loan conditions mean that small-scale farmers are frequently shut out of official climate finance systems.​

A study cited in the report found that none of the 40 major GEF or GCF projects designed to assist small-scale producers sent funds directly to family farmers. Instead, farmers often rely on informal credit sources with crushing interest rates.

COP30: A Turning Point for Climate Justice

As the upcoming COP30 in Brazil puts adaptation at the centre of global negotiations, farmer-led groups are demanding a dedicated “Farmers Resiliency Fund” to ensure money flows directly to those growing the world’s food.​

The Brazilian Presidency’s Action Agenda—which emphasizes sustainable agriculture and hunger eradication—has given hope for reform. However, questions remain over whether rich nations will double adaptation finance to US$40 billion by 2025 or commit to a long-term goal that includes